A Project Portfolio Tool for Forecasting Small Projects Profitability

The case company in this study is a large industrial engineering company whose business is largely based on delivering a wide-range of engineering projects. The aim of this study is to create and develop a fairly simple Excel-based tool for the sales department. The tool’s main function is to estimate and visualize the profitability of various small projects. The study also aims to find out other possible and more long-term solutions for tackling the problem in the future. The study is highly constructive and descriptive as it focuses on the development task and in the creation of a new operating model. The developed tool focuses on estimating the profitability of the small orders of the selected project portfolio currently on the bidding-phase (prospects) and will help the case company in the monthly reporting of sales figures. The tool will analyse the profitability of a certain project by calculating its fixed and variable costs, then further the gross margin and operating profit. The bidding phase of small project is a phase that has not been covered fully by the existing tools within the case company. The project portfolio tool can be taken into use immediately within the case company and it will provide fairly accurate estimate of the profitability figures of the recently sold small projects.

Logistics Cost Optimization of Road Freight Shipments in a Consumer Goods Company

In the industry of the case company, transportation and warehousing costs account for more than 10% of the total cost which is more than on average. A Finnish company has an understanding that by sending larger shipments in parcels, they could save tens of thousands of euros annually in freight costs in Finland’s domestic shipments. To achieve these savings and optimize total logistics cost, company’s interest is to find out which is the cost efficient way of shipping road shipments of certain volumes; in parcel boxes or on pallets, and what should be the split volume determining the shipment type. Distribution center (DC) costs affect this decision and therefore they need to be also evaluated to determine the total logistics cost savings. Main results were achieved by executing activity-based costing-calculations including DC and road freight costs to determine the ideal split volume with which the total logistics cost is optimal. Calculations were done for Finland’s DC, separately for two main road freight destinations, Finland and Sweden, which cover 50% of road shipment spend. Data for calculations was collected both manually and automatically from various internal and external sources, such as the company ERP system and logistics service providers’ (LSP) reporting. DC processes were studied in practice and compared to model processes. Currently used freight rates were compared to existing pricing models and freight service tendering process was evaluated by participating in the process and comparing it to the models based on literature. The results show that the potential savings are not as significant as the company hoped for, mainly because of packing work increasing DC labor cost. Annual savings by setting ideal split volume per country would account for 0,4 % of the warehousing and transportation costs of shipments in scope of this thesis. Split volume should be set separately for each route, mainly because the pricing model for road freight is different in each country. For some routes bigger parcels should be sent but for some routes pallets should be used more. Next step is to do these calculations for remaining routes to determine total savings potential. Other findings show that the processes in the DC are designed well and the company could achieve savings by executing tenders more efficiently. Company should also pay more attention to parcel pricing and packing the shipments accordingly.

Optimization of PV and battery capacity for domestic purposes

The usage of PV batteries nowadays became more and more widely spread. Due to the fact that the efficiency of modern PV is rising every year the prevalence of this source of energy is increasing. As the source of the energy is sunlight, these batteries need to be complimented by storage capacitors which will store energy for future use. Nevertheless the less the calculation of demanded amount of energy according the load and capacity of a storage battery that will keep the end consumer in work during certain time still is not overviewed. In this thesis the overall system will be considered and there will be made economic calculations for configurations of such system that will depend from the load. Also the behavior of the system in different geographical and climate conditions that influence of the amount of energy produced will be overviewed.

Distributed energy resources in an electricity retailer’s short-term profit optimization

Liberalization of electricity markets has resulted in a competed Nordic electricity market, in which electricity retailers play a key role as electricity suppliers, market intermediaries, and service providers. Although these roles may remain unchanged in the near future, the retailers’ operation may change fundamentally as a result of the emerging smart grid environment. Especially the increasing amount of distributed energy resources (DER), and improving opportunities for their control, are reshaping the operating environment of the retailers. This requires that the retailers’ operation models are developed to match the operating environment, in which the active use of DER plays a major role. Electricity retailers have a clientele, and they operate actively in the electricity markets, which makes them a natural market party to offer new services for end-users aiming at an efficient and market-based use of DER. From the retailer’s point of view, the active use of DER can provide means to adapt the operation to meet the challenges posed by the smart grid environment, and to pursue the ultimate objective of the retailer, which is to maximize the profit of operation. This doctoral dissertation introduces a methodology for the comprehensive use of DER in an electricity retailer’s short-term profit optimization that covers operation in a variety of marketplaces including day-ahead, intra-day, and reserve markets. The analysis results provide data of the key profit-making opportunities and the risks associated with different types of DER use. Therefore, the methodology may serve as an efficient tool for an experienced operator in the planning of the optimal market-based DER use. The key contributions of this doctoral dissertation lie in the analysis and development of the model that allows the retailer to benefit from profit-making opportunities brought by the use of DER in different marketplaces, but also to manage the major risks involved in the active use of DER. In addition, the dissertation introduces an analysis of the economic potential of DER control actions in different marketplaces including the day-ahead Elspot market, balancing power market, and the hourly market of Frequency Containment Reserve for Disturbances (FCR-D).

Review of investment strategy, portfolio management, and scorecard based portfolio selection tool for direct property investments in Finland

The lack of research of private real estate is a well-known problem. Earlier studies have mostly concentrated on the USA or the UK. Therefore, this master thesis offers more information about the performance and risk associated with private real estate investments in Nordic countries, but especially in Finland. The structure of this master thesis is divided into two independent sections based on the research questions. In first section, database analysis is performed to assess risk-return ratio of direct real estate investment for Nordic countries. Risk-return ratios are also assessed for different property sectors and economic regions. Finally, review of diversification strategies based on property sectors and economic regions is performed. However, standard deviation itself is not usually sufficient method to evaluate riskiness of private real estate. There is demand for more explicit assessment of property risk. One solution is property risk scoring. In second section risk scorecard based tool is built to make different real estate comparable in terms of risk. In order to do this, nine real estate professionals were interviewed to enhance the structure of theory-based risk scorecard and to assess weights for different risk factors.

A performance analysis of conventional and fundamental exchange traded funds: ETFs and their risk-return characteristics in relation to building institutional investor’s passive portfolio

An exchange traded fund (ETF) is a financial instrument that tracks some predetermined index. Since their initial establishment in 1993, ETFs have grown in importance in the field of passive investing. The main reason for the growth of the ETF industry is that ETFs combine benefits of stock investing and mutual fund investing. Although ETFs resemble mutual funds in many ways, also many differences occur. In addition, ETFs not only differ from mutual funds but also differ among each other. ETFs can be divided into two categories, i.e. market capitalisation ETFs and fundamental (or strategic) ETFs, and further into subcategories depending on their fundament basis. ETFs are a useful tool for diversification especially for a long-term investor. Although the economic importance of ETFs has risen drastically during the past 25 years, the differences and risk-return characteristics of fundamental ETFs have yet been rather unstudied area. In effect, no previous research on market capitalisation and fundamental ETFs was found during the research process. For its part, this thesis seeks to fill this research gap. The studied data consist of 50 market capitalisation ETFs and 50 fundamental ETFs. The fundaments, on which the indices that the fundamental ETFs track, were not limited nor segregated into subsections. The two types of ETFs were studied at an aggregate level as two different research groups. The dataset ranges from June 2006 to December 2014 with 103 monthly observations. The data was gathered using Bloomberg Terminal. The analysis was conducted as an econometric performance analysis. In addition to other econometric measures, the methods that were used in the performance analysis included modified Value-at-Risk, modified Sharpe ratio and Treynor ratio. The results supported the hypothesis that passive market capitalisation ETFs outperform active fundamental ETFs in terms of risk-adjusted returns, though the difference is rather small. Nevertheless, when taking into account the higher overall trading costs of the fundamental ETFs, the underperformance gap widens. According to the research results, market capitalisation ETFs are a recommendable diversification instrument for a long-term investor. In addition to better risk-adjusted returns, passive ETFs are more transparent and the bases of their underlying indices are simpler than those of fundamental ETFs. ETFs are still a young financial innovation and hence data is scarcely available. On future research, it would be valuable to research the differences in risk-adjusted returns also between the subsections of fundamental ETFs.

Optimization of Transportation System by Tailored Logistics Network: A Case Study in Automotive Industry

This thesis aims to redesign the supply chain system in an automotive industry in order to obtain space reduction in the inventory by using tailored logistics network. The redesigning process by tailored supply chain will combine all possible shipment methods including direct shipment, milk-run, milk-run via distribution center and Kanban delivery. The current supply chain system in Nissan goes rather well when the production volume is in moderate level. However, when the production volume is high, there is a capacity problem in the warehouse to accommodate all delivered parts from suppliers. Hence, the optimization of supply chain system is needed in order to obtain efficient logistics process and effective inventory consumption. The study will use primary data for both qualitative and quantitative approach as the research methods. Qualitative data will be collected by conducting interviews with people related to procurement and inventory control. Quantitative data consists of list of suppliers with their condition in several parameters which will be evaluated and analyzed by using scoring method to assign the most suitable transportation network to each suppliers for improvement of inventory reduction in a cost efficient manner.

The effects of derivative use on equity fund performance

Investing in mutual funds has become more popular than ever and the amount of money invested in mutual funds registered in Finland has hit its all-time high. Mutual funds provide a relatively low-cost method for private investors to invest in stock market and achieve diversified portfolios. In finance there is always a tradeoff between risk and return, where higher expected returns can usually be achieved only by taking higher risks. Diversifying the portfolio gets rid some of the risk but systematic risk cannot be diversified away. These risks can be managed by hedging the investments with derivatives. The use of derivatives should improve the performance of the portfolios using them compared to the funds that don’t. However, previous studies have shown that the risk exposure and return performance of derivative users does not considerably differ from nonusers. The purpose of this study is to examine how the use of derivatives affects the performance of equity funds. The funds studied were 155 equity funds registered in Finland in 2013. Empirical research was done by studying the derivative use of the funds during a 6-year period between 2008–2013. The performance of the funds was studied quantitatively by using several different performance measures used in mutual fund industry; Sharpe Ratio, Treynor Ratio, Jensen's alpha, Sortino Ratio, M2 and Omega Ratio. The effect of derivative use on funds' performance was studied by using a dummy variable and comparing performance measures of derivative-users and nonusers. The differences in performance measures between the two groups were analyzed with statistical tests. The hypothesis was that funds' derivative use should improve their performance relative to the funds that don't use them. The results of this study are in line with previous studies that state that the use of derivatives does not improve mutual funds' performance. When performance was measured with Jensen's alpha, funds that did not use derivatives performed better than the ones that used them. When measured with other performance measures, the results didn’t differ between two groups.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.