Effects of algal turbidity on foraging and antipredator behaviour of the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

The aim of this thesis was to examine how aquatic organisms, such as fish, behave in an altered environmental condition. Many species of fish use vision as their primary tool to gain information about their surrounding environment. The visual conditions of aquatic habitats are often altered as a result of anthropogenic disturbance, such as eutrophication that initiates algal turbidity. In general, turbidity reduces the visibility and can be hypothesized to have an influence on the behaviour of fish. I used the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) as a model species and conducted four studies in the laboratory to test how algal turbidity affects its behaviour. In this thesis, two major behavioural aspects are discussed. The first is antipredator behaviour. In study I, the combined effects of turbidity and shoot density on habitat choice (shelter vs open) behaviour was tested on a group of sticklebacks (20 fish) in the presence and absence of piscivorous perch (Perca fluviatilis). In study II, I examined the behavioural responses of feeding sticklebacks when they were exposed to the sudden appearance of an avian predator (the silhouette of a common tern, Sterna hirundo). The study was done in turbid and clear water using three different groups sizes (1, 3 and 6 fish). The second aspect is foraging behaviour. Study III & IV focused on the effects of algal turbidity on the foraging performance of sticklebacks. In study III, I conducted two separate experiments to examine the effects of turbidity on prey consumption and prey choice of sticklebacks. In this experiment turbidity levels and the proportion of large and small prey (Daphnia spp.) were manipulated. In study IV, I studied whether a group of six sticklebacks can distribute themselves according to food input at two feeding stations in a way that provided each fish with the same amount of food in clear and turbid water. I also observed whether the fish can follow changes in resource distribution between the foraging patches. My results indicate an overall influence of algal turbidity on the antipredator and foraging behaviour of sticklebacks. In the presence of a potential predator, the use of the sheltered habitat was more pronounced at higher turbidity. Besides this, sticklebacks reduced their activity levels with predator presence at higher turbidity and shoot density levels, suggesting a possible antipredator adaptation to avoid a predator. When exposed to a sudden appearance of an avian predator, sticklebacks showed a weaker antipredator response in turbid water, which suggests that turbidity degrades the risk assessment capabilities of sticklebacks. I found an effect of group size but not turbidity in the proportion of sticklebacks that fled to the shelter area, which indicates that sticklebacks are able to communicate among group members at the experimental turbidity levels. I found an overall negative effect of turbidity on food intake. Both turbidity and changes in the proportion of prey sizes played a significant role in a stickleback’s prey selection. At lower turbidity levels (clear <1 and 5 NTU) sticklebacks showed preferences for large prey, whereas in more turbid conditions and when the proportion of large to small prey increased sticklebacks became increasingly random in their prey selection. Finally, my results showed that groups of sticklebacks disperse themselves between feeding stations according to the reward ratios following the predictions of the ideal free distribution theory. However, they took a significantly longer time to reach the equilibrium distribution in turbid water than in clear water. In addition, they showed a slower response to changes in resource distribution in a turbid environment. These findings suggest that turbidity interferes with the information transfer among group foragers. It is important to understand that aquatic animals are often exposed to a degraded environment. The findings of this thesis suggest that algal turbidity negatively affects their behavioural performance. The results also shed light on the underlying behavioural strategies of sticklebacks in turbid conditions that might help them adapt to an altered environmental situation and increase their survival. In conclusion, I hold that although algal turbidity has detrimental effects on the antipredator and foraging behaviour of sticklebacks, their behavioural adjustment might help them adapt to a changing environment.

New threats - old routines : bureaucratic adaptability in the security policy environment

Within the framework of state security policy, the focus of this dissertation are the relations between how new security threats are perceived and the policy planning and bureaucratic implementation that are designed to address them. In addition, this thesis explores and studies some of the inertias that might exist in the core of the state apparatus as it addresses new threats and how these could be better managed. The dissertation is built on five thematic and interrelated articles highlighting different aspects of when new significant national security threats are detected by different governments until the threats on the policy planning side translate into protective measures within the society. The timeline differs widely between different countries and some key aspects of this process are also studied. One focus concerns mechanisms for adaptability within the Intelligence Community, another on the policy planning process within the Cabinet Offices/National Security Councils and the third focus is on the planning process and how policy is implemented within the bureaucracy. The issue of policy transfer is also analysed, revealing that there is some imitation of innovation within governmental structures and policies, for example within the field of cyber defence. The main findings of the dissertation are that this context has built-in inertias and bureaucratic seams found in most government bureaucratic machineries. As much of the information and planning measures imply security classification of the transparency and internal debate on these issues, alternative assessments become limited. To remedy this situation, the thesis recommends ways to improve the decision-making system in order to streamline the processes involved in making these decisions. Another special focus of the thesis concerns the role of the public policy think tanks in the United States as an instrument of change in the country’s national security decision-making environment, which is viewed from the perspective as being a possible source of new ideas and innovation. The findings in this part are based on unique interviews data on how think tanks become successful and influence the policy debate in a country such as the United States. It appears clearly that in countries such as the United States think tanks smooth the decision making processes, and that this model with some adaptations also might be transferrable to other democratic countries.

Quantification of Toxin Biosynthesis Genes In Cyanobacteria and Dinoflagellates - Genetic Factors as Predictors of Toxin Production in the Environment

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are events caused by the massive proliferation of microscopic, often photosynthetic organisms that inhabit both fresh and marine waters. Although HABs are essentially a natural phenomenon, they now cause worldwide concern. Recent anthropogenic effects, such as climate change and eutrophication via nutrient runoff, can be seen in their increased prevalence and severity. Cyanobacteria and dinoflagellates are often the causative organisms of HABs. In addition to adverse effects caused by the sheer biomass, certain species produce highly potent toxic compounds: hepatotoxic microcystins are produced exclusively by cyanobacteria and neurotoxic saxitoxins, also known as paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs), by both cyanobacteria and dinoflagellates. Specific biosynthetic genes in the cyanobacterial genomes direct the production of microcystin and paralytic shellfish toxins. Recently also the first paralytic shellfish toxin gene sequences from dinoflagellate genomes have been elucidated. The public health risks presented by HABs are evident, but the monitoring and prediction of toxic events is challenging. Characterization of the genetic background of toxin biosynthesis, including that of microcystins and paralytic shellfish toxins, has made it possible to develop highly sensitive molecular tools which have shown promise in the monitoring and study of potentially toxic microalgae. In this doctoral work, toxin-specific genes were targeted in the developed PCR and qPCR assays for the detection and quantification of potentially toxic cyanobacteria and dinoflagellates in the environment. The correlation between the copy numbers of the toxin biosynthesis genes and toxin production were investigated to assess whether the developed methods could be used to predict toxin concentrations. The nature of the correlation between gene copy numbers and amount of toxin produced varied depending on the targeted gene and the producing organism. The combined mcyB copy numbers of three potentially microcystin-producing cyanobacterial genera showed significant positive correlation to the observed total toxin production. However, the presence of PST-specific sxtA, sxtG, and sxtB genes of cyanobacterial origin was found to be a poor predictor of toxin production in the studied area. Conversely, the dinoflagellate sxtA4 was a good qualitative indicator of a neurotoxic bloom both in the laboratory and in the field, and population densities reflected well the observed toxin concentrations. In conclusion, although the specificity of each potential targeted toxin biosynthesis gene must be assessed individually during method development, the results obtained in this doctoral study support the use of quantitative PCR -based approaches in the monitoring of toxic cyanobacteria and dinoflagellates.

Threat modeling a factory environment using Microsoft Security Development Lifecycle methodology

The number of security violations is increasing and a security breach could have irreversible impacts to business. There are several ways to improve organization security, but some of them may be difficult to comprehend. This thesis demystifies threat modeling as part of secure system development. Threat modeling enables developers to reveal previously undetected security issues from computer systems. It offers a structured approach for organizations to find and address threats against vulnerabilities. When implemented correctly threat modeling will reduce the amount of defects and malicious attempts against the target environment. In this thesis Microsoft Security Development Lifecycle (SDL) is introduced as an effective methodology for reducing defects in the target system. SDL is traditionally meant to be used in software development, principles can be however partially adapted to IT-infrastructure development. Microsoft threat modeling methodology is an important part of SDL and it is utilized in this thesis to find threats from the Acme Corporation’s factory environment. Acme Corporation is used as a pseudonym for a company providing high-technology consumer electronics. Target for threat modeling is the IT-infrastructure of factory’s manufacturing execution system. Microsoft threat modeling methodology utilizes STRIDE –mnemonic and data flow diagrams to find threats. Threat modeling in this thesis returned results that were important for the organization. Acme Corporation now has more comprehensive understanding concerning IT-infrastructure of the manufacturing execution system. On top of vulnerability related results threat modeling provided coherent views of the target system. Subject matter experts from different areas can now agree upon functions and dependencies of the target system. Threat modeling was recognized as a useful activity for improving security.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.