Forecasting with social media – Using Facebook likes to predict the results of the 2015 Finnish Parliamentary elections

Already one-third of the human population uses social media on a daily basis. The biggest social networking site Facebook has over billion monthly users. As a result, social media services are now recording unprecedented amount of data on human behavior. The phenomenon has certainly caught the attention of scholars, businesses and governments alike. Organizations around the globe are trying to explore new ways to benefit from the massive databases. One emerging field of research is the use of social media in forecasting. The goal is to use data gathered from online services to predict offline phenomena. Predicting the results of elections is a prominent example of forecasting with social media, but regardless of the numerous attempts, no reliable technique has been established. The objective of the research is to analyze how accurately the results of parliament elections can be forecasted using social media. The research examines whether Facebook “likes” can be effectively used for predicting the outcome of the Finnish parliament elections that took place in April 2015. First a tool for gathering data from Facebook was created. Then the data was used to create an electoral forecast. Finally, the forecast was compared with the official results of the elections. The data used in the research was gathered from the Facebook walls of all the candidates that were running for the parliament elections and had a valid Facebook page. The final sample represents 1131 candidates and over 750000 Facebook “likes”. The results indicate that creating a forecast solely based on Facebook “likes” is not accurate. The forecast model predicted very dramatic changes to the Finnish political landscape while the official results of the elections were rather moderate. However, a clear statistical relationship between “likes” and votes was discovered. In conclusion, it is apparent that citizens and other key actors of the society are using social media in an increasing rate. However, the volume of the data does not directly increase the quality of the forecast. In addition, the study faced several other limitations that should be addressed in future research. Nonetheless, discovering the positive correlation between “likes” and votes is valuable information that can be used in future studies. Finally, it is evident that Facebook “likes” are not accurate enough and a meaningful forecast would require additional parameters.

Case: Kitaravahvistimen AB-luokan tehovahvistimen päivittäminen D-luokkaan

D-luokan vahvistimien etu perinteisiin A- tai AB-luokan vahvistimiin nähden on niitten korkea hyötysuhde ja pieni koko. Lisäksi ne ovat edullisia ja niihin voidaan asentaa pienemmät jäähdytyslevyt kuin perinteisiin vahvistimiin korkean hyötysuhteen ansiosta. Tässä tutkimuksessa asennetaan Peavey Solo –kitaravahvistimen pääteasteena toimivan AB-luokan päätevahvistimen tilalle tehokkaampi ja uudempaa vahvistinluokkaa edustava D-luokan vahvistin. Tutkimuksessa selvitetään, miten D-luokan vahvistimella toteutettu kytkentä toimii verrattuna alkuperäiseen kytkentään tutkimalla kitaravahvistimelle tyypillisiä sähköisiä ominaisuuksia. Työ toteutetaan mittauksin. Koska työssä olevissa kytkennöissä on jännitteisiä osia, on siinä perehdyttävä sähköturvallisuuteen. D-luokan vahvistin asettaa tietyt sähkötekniset kestävyysvaatimukset kytkennän teholähteelle ja kaiutinelementille, jolloin työssä paneudutaan myös niiden valintaan. D-luokan vahvistimeen päivitetyn kytkennän tuottamat äänenpainetasot olivat valtaosassa mittauksia suuremmat kuin alkuperäisellä kytkennällä. Äänenpainetasojen mittaustilanteissa myös kuormalle syötetyt tehot olivat suuremmat päivitetyllä kytkennällä verrattuna alkuperäiseen. Suurin päivitetyn kytkennän kuorman teho 72,72 W saavutettiin, kun kaiutinelementin yli oli 24,12 V:n jännitteen tehollisarvo ja kuorman teho oli noin 36 kertaa suurempi kuin alkuperäisellä kytkennällä. D-luokan vahvistimen mitatut harmonisen särön arvot ovat huomattavasti pienempiä kuin alkuperäisellä vahvistimella. Muokkaamattoman vahvistimen mitatusta sähköisestä taajuusvasteeesta nähdään, että alkuperäinen vahvistin korostaa tiettyjä taajuuksia, kun D-luokan vahvistimen taajuusvaste on sen sijaan likimain tasainen. Akustinen taajuusvaste ei ole niin tasainen D-luokan vahvistimeen päivitetyllä kytkennällä kuin alkuperäisellä kytkennällä ja sillä on myös kapeampi taajuusalue. Jos päivitetyn kytkennän sointia haluttaisiin parantaa, pitäisi tutkia lisää akustiseen taajuusvasteeseen vaikuttavia asioita.

Relay protection in active distribution networks

Increasingly growing share of distributed generation in the whole electrical power system’s generating system is currently a worldwide tendency, driven by several factors, encircling mainly difficulties in refinement of megalopolises’ distribution networks and its maintenance; widening environmental concerns adding to both energy efficiency approaches and installation of renewable sources based generation, inherently distributed; increased power quality and reliability needs; progress in IT field, making implementable harmonization of needs and interests of different-energy-type generators and consumers. At this stage, the volume, formed by system-interconnected distributed generation facilities, have reached the level of causing broad impact toward system operation under emergency and post-emergency conditions in several EU countries, thus previously implementable approach of their preliminary tripping in case of a fault, preventing generating equipment damage and disoperation of relay protection and automation, is not applicable any more. Adding to the preceding, withstand capability and transient electromechanical stability of generating technologies, interconnecting in proximity of load nodes, enhanced significantly since the moment Low Voltage Ride-Through regulations, followed by techniques, were introduced in Grid Codes. Both aspects leads to relay protection and auto-reclosing operation in presence of distributed generation generally connected after grid planning and construction phases. This paper proposes solutions to the emerging need to ensure correct operation of the equipment in question with least possible grid refinements, distinctively for every type of distributed generation technology achieved its technical maturity to date and network’s protection. New generating technologies are equivalented from the perspective of representation in calculation of initial steady-state short-circuit current used to dimension current-sensing relay protection, and widely adopted short-circuit calculation practices, as IEC 60909 and VDE 0102. The phenomenon of unintentional islanding, influencing auto-reclosing, is addressed, and protection schemes used to eliminate an sustained island are listed and characterized by reliability and implementation related factors, whereas also forming a crucial aspect of realization of the proposed protection operation relieving measures.

Ventricular rate during acute atrial fibrillation and outcome of electrical cardioversion: The FinCV Study

The impact of ventricular rate (VR) on the outcome of electrical cardioversion (ECV) of acute atrial fibrillation (AF) is currently unknown. We aimed to determine the effect of VR during acute AF on the success of ECV, recurrence of AF and occurrence of post-cardioversion complications in 30 days follow-up. All ECVs performed in patients with acute atrial fibrillation lasting <48 hours in 2 Finnish university hospitals during 2003-2010 and 1 central hospital during 2010 were retrospectively identified. A total of 6,624 ECVs were performed in 2,821 consecutive patients. VR≤60 BPM was defined low and VR≥160 BPM high. The median VR before ECV was 109 BPM. The success rate of ECV was 94.2%. Bradycardia occurred in 62 (0.9%) and thromboembolic complications in 39 (0.6%) ECVs. Low VR was observed before 75 (1.1%) ECVs and male sex was its only independent predictor. High VR was observed in 165 (2.5%) ECVs. The independent predictors of high VR were younger age, <12 h episode duration, no previous history of AF and alcohol abuse. Low or high VR were not related to the success of ECV, incidence of thromboembolic or bradycardic complications, or recurrence of AF, although VR was significantly (p<0.001) lower in the patients in whom AF recurred. In conclusion, ECV of acute AF is an effective procedure and VR during AF does not affect its efficacy, the maintenance of sinus rhythm or the incidence of bradycardic, thromboembolic or other complications during 30 days follow-up after ECV. Low VR is predominately observed in male patients, while high VR was a feature related to a shorter history of AF and high alcohol-intake.

Dynamic Modelling of Circulating Fluidized Bed Plant with Gas Turbine Repowering

Increasing amount of renewable energy source based electricity production has set high load control requirements for power grid balance markets. The essential grid balance between electricity consumption and generation is currently hard to achieve economically with new-generation solutions. Therefore conventional combustion power generation will be examined in this thesis as a solution to the foregoing issue. Circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology is known to have sufficient scale to acts as a large grid balancing unit. Although the load change rate of the CFB unit is known to be moderately high, supplementary repowering solution will be evaluated in this thesis for load change maximization. The repowering heat duty is delivered to the CFB feed water preheating section by smaller gas turbine (GT) unit. Consequently, steam extraction preheating may be decreased and large amount of the gas turbine exhaust heat may be utilized in the CFB process to reach maximum plant electrical efficiency. Earlier study of the repowering has focused on the efficiency improvements and retrofitting to maximize plant electrical output. This study however presents the CFB load change improvement possibilities achieved with supplementary GT heat. The repowering study is prefaced with literature and theory review for both of the processes to maximize accuracy of the research. Both dynamic and steady-state simulations accomplished with APROS simulation tool will be used to evaluate repowering effects to the CFB unit operation. Eventually, a conceptual level analysis is completed to compare repowered plant performance to the state-of-the-art CFB performance. Based on the performed simulations, considerably good improvements to the CFB process parameters are achieved with repowering. Consequently, the results show possibilities to higher ramp rate values achieved with repowered CFB technology. This enables better plant suitability to the grid balance markets.

Energy Efficiency in Electrical Drive Systems: Technical potentials, barriers and policy approaches for small and medium industries in Ghana

Today industries and commerce in Ghana are facing enormous energy challenge. The pressure is on for industries to reduce energy consumption, lower carbon emissions and provide se-cured power supply. Industrial electric motor energy efficiency improvement is one of the most important tools to reduce global warming threat and reduce electricity bills. In order to develop a strategic industrial energy efficiency policy, it is therefore necessary to study the barriers that inhibit the implementation of cost – effective energy efficiency measures and the driving forces that promote the implementation. The aim of this thesis is to analyse the energy consumption pattern of electric motors, study factors that promote or inhibit energy efficiency improvements in EMDS and provide cost – effective solutions that improve energy efficiency to bridge the existing energy efficiency gap in the surveyed industries. The results from this thesis has revealed that, the existence of low energy efficiency in motor-driven systems in the surveyed industries were due to poor maintenance practices, absence of standards, power quality issues, lack of access to capital and limited awareness to the im-portance of energy efficiency improvements in EMDS. However, based on the results pre-sented in this thesis, a policy approach towards industrial SMEs should primarily include dis-counted or free energy audit in providing the industries with the necessary information on potential energy efficiency measures, practice best motor management programmes and estab-lish a minimum energy performance standard (MEPS) for motors imported into the country. The thesis has also shown that education and capacity development programmes, financial incentives and system optimization are effective means to promote energy efficiency in elec-tric motor – driven systems in industrial SMEs in Ghana

Standardized electrical tests for electrical equipment in road vehicles Case: Visedo Oy PowerMASTER M-frame

Electrical road vehicles were common at the begin of the 20th century but internal combustion engines took a victory from electrical motors in road vehicles. The acknowledgement of the environment, and the price and the availability of the crude oil are reasons for the comeback of the electrical vehicles. Advancement in industrial technology and political atmosphere in EU as the directive 20--20--20, which consists of reducing fossil emission, increasing renewable energy and increasing the energy efficiency, have made the electrification popular again. In this thesis tests based on standard ISO 16750--2 electrical loads for electrical equipment in road vehicles are made for Visedo Oy's PowerMASTER M-frame power electronics device. This device is designed for mainly drive trains in mobile work machines and marine vessels but can be used in other application in its power range which also includes road vehicles. The functionality of the device is tested with preliminary tests which act as a framework for the tests based on standards.

Design and Material Selection of High-Speed Rotating Electrical Machines

The increasing emphasis on energy efficiency is starting to yield results in the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions; however, the effort is still far from sufficient. Therefore, new technical solutions that will enhance the efficiency of power generation systems are required to maintain the sustainable growth rate, without spoiling the environment. A reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is only possible with new low-carbon technologies, which enable high efficiencies. The role of the rotating electrical machine development is significant in the reduction of global emissions. A high proportion of the produced and consumed electrical energy is related to electrical machines. One of the technical solutions that enables high system efficiency on both the energy production and consumption sides is high-speed electrical machines. This type of electrical machines has a high system overall efficiency, a small footprint, and a high power density compared with conventional machines. Therefore, high-speed electrical machines are favoured by the manufacturers producing, for example, microturbines, compressors, gas compression applications, and air blowers. High-speed machine technology is challenging from the design point of view, and a lot of research is in progress both in academia and industry regarding the solution development. The solid technical basis is of importance in order to make an impact in the industry considering the climate change. This work describes the multidisciplinary design principles and material development in high-speed electrical machines. First, high-speed permanent magnet synchronous machines with six slots, two poles, and tooth-coil windings are discussed in this doctoral dissertation. These machines have unique features, which help in solving rotordynamic problems and reducing the manufacturing costs. Second, the materials for the high-speed machines are discussed in this work. The materials are among the key limiting factors in electrical machines, and to overcome this limit, an in-depth analysis of the material properties and behavior is required. Moreover, high-speed machines are sometimes operating in a harsh environment because they need to be as close as possible to the rotating tool and fully exploit their advantages. This sets extra requirements for the materials applied.