Parameter identification in time series models

Time series analysis can be categorized into three different approaches: classical, Box-Jenkins, and State space. Classical approach makes a basement for the analysis and Box-Jenkins approach is an improvement of the classical approach and deals with stationary time series. State space approach allows time variant factors and covers up a broader area of time series analysis. This thesis focuses on parameter identifiablity of different parameter estimation methods such as LSQ, Yule-Walker, MLE which are used in the above time series analysis approaches. Also the Kalman filter method and smoothing techniques are integrated with the state space approach and MLE method to estimate parameters allowing them to change over time. Parameter estimation is carried out by repeating estimation and integrating with MCMC and inspect how well different estimation methods can identify the optimal model parameters. Identification is performed in probabilistic and general senses and compare the results in order to study and represent identifiability more informative way.

Model-based testing of software systems : functionality and performance

Software is a key component in many of our devices and products that we use every day. Most customers demand not only that their devices should function as expected but also that the software should be of high quality, reliable, fault tolerant, efficient, etc. In short, it is not enough that a calculator gives the correct result of a calculation, we want the result instantly, in the right form, with minimal use of battery, etc. One of the key aspects for succeeding in today's industry is delivering high quality. In most software development projects, high-quality software is achieved by rigorous testing and good quality assurance practices. However, today, customers are asking for these high quality software products at an ever-increasing pace. This leaves the companies with less time for development. Software testing is an expensive activity, because it requires much manual work. Testing, debugging, and verification are estimated to consume 50 to 75 per cent of the total development cost of complex software projects. Further, the most expensive software defects are those which have to be fixed after the product is released. One of the main challenges in software development is reducing the associated cost and time of software testing without sacrificing the quality of the developed software. It is often not enough to only demonstrate that a piece of software is functioning correctly. Usually, many other aspects of the software, such as performance, security, scalability, usability, etc., need also to be verified. Testing these aspects of the software is traditionally referred to as nonfunctional testing. One of the major challenges with non-functional testing is that it is usually carried out at the end of the software development process when most of the functionality is implemented. This is due to the fact that non-functional aspects, such as performance or security, apply to the software as a whole. In this thesis, we study the use of model-based testing. We present approaches to automatically generate tests from behavioral models for solving some of these challenges. We show that model-based testing is not only applicable to functional testing but also to non-functional testing. In its simplest form, performance testing is performed by executing multiple test sequences at once while observing the software in terms of responsiveness and stability, rather than the output. The main contribution of the thesis is a coherent model-based testing approach for testing functional and performance related issues in software systems. We show how we go from system models, expressed in the Unified Modeling Language, to test cases and back to models again. The system requirements are traced throughout the entire testing process. Requirements traceability facilitates finding faults in the design and implementation of the software. In the research field of model-based testing, many new proposed approaches suffer from poor or the lack of tool support. Therefore, the second contribution of this thesis is proper tool support for the proposed approach that is integrated with leading industry tools. We o er independent tools, tools that are integrated with other industry leading tools, and complete tool-chains when necessary. Many model-based testing approaches proposed by the research community suffer from poor empirical validation in an industrial context. In order to demonstrate the applicability of our proposed approach, we apply our research to several systems, including industrial ones.

Recent advances in monocular model-based tracking: a systematic literature review

In this paper, we review the advances of monocular model-based tracking for last ten years period until 2014. In 2005, Lepetit, et. al, [19] reviewed the status of monocular model based rigid body tracking. Since then, direct 3D tracking has become quite popular research area, but monocular model-based tracking should still not be forgotten. We mainly focus on tracking, which could be applied to aug- mented reality, but also some other applications are covered. Given the wide subject area this paper tries to give a broad view on the research that has been conducted, giving the reader an introduction to the different disciplines that are tightly related to model-based tracking. The work has been conducted by searching through well known academic search databases in a systematic manner, and by selecting certain publications for closer examination. We analyze the results by dividing the found papers into different categories by their way of implementation. The issues which have not yet been solved are discussed. We also discuss on emerging model-based methods such as fusing different types of features and region-based pose estimation which could show the way for future research in this subject.

Market anomalies and tactical asset allocation: Utilising market anomalies in multiple asset class portfolios with the Black−Litterman model

This thesis discusses the basic problem of the modern portfolio theory about how to optimise the perfect allocation for an investment portfolio. The theory provides a solution for an efficient portfolio, which minimises the risk of the portfolio with respect to the expected return. A central feature for all the portfolios on the efficient frontier is that the investor needs to provide the expected return for each asset. Market anomalies are persistent patterns seen in the financial markets, which cannot be explained with the current asset pricing theory. The goal of this thesis is to study whether these anomalies can be observed among different asset classes. Finally, if persistent patterns are found, it is investigated whether the anomalies hold valuable information for determining the expected returns used in the portfolio optimization Market anomalies and investment strategies based on them are studied with a rolling estimation window, where the return for the following period is always based on historical information. This is also crucial when rebalancing the portfolio. The anomalies investigated within this thesis are value, momentum, reversal, and idiosyncratic volatility. The research data includes price series of country level stock indices, government bonds, currencies, and commodities. The modern portfolio theory and the views given by the anomalies are combined by utilising the Black-Litterman model. This makes it possible to optimise the portfolio so that investor’s views are taken into account. When constructing the portfolios, the goal is to maximise the Sharpe ratio. Significance of the results is studied by assessing if the strategy yields excess returns in a relation to those explained by the threefactormodel. The most outstanding finding is that anomaly based factors include valuable information to enhance efficient portfolio diversification. When the highest Sharpe ratios for each asset class are picked from the test factors and applied to the Black−Litterman model, the final portfolio results in superior riskreturn combination. The highest Sharpe ratios are provided by momentum strategy for stocks and long-term reversal for the rest of the asset classes. Additionally, a strategy based on the value effect was highly appealing, and it basically performs as well as the previously mentioned Sharpe strategy. When studying the anomalies, it is found, that 12-month momentum is the strongest effect, especially for stock indices. In addition, a high idiosyncratic volatility seems to be positively correlated with country indices on stocks.

Post-transaction brand and model line-up integration in the automotive industry: Case studies of European companies as target of acquisitions by Chinese and Indian multinational corporations

Corporations practice company acquisitions in order to create shareholder’s value. During the last few decades, the companies in emerging markets have become active in the acquisition business. During the last decade, large and significant acquisitions have occurred especially in automotive industry. While domestic markets have become too competitive and companies are lacking required capabilities, they seek possibilities to expand into Western markets by attaining valuable assets through acquisitions of developed country corporations. This study discusses the issues and characteristics of these acquisitions through case studies. The purpose of this study was to identify the acquisition motives and strategies for post-transaction brand and product integration as well as analyze the effect of the motives to the integration strategy. The cases chosen for the research were Chinese Geely acquiring Swedish Volvo in 2010 and Indian Tata Motors buying British Jaguar Land Rover in 2008. The main topics were chosen according to their significance for companies in automotive industry as well as those are most visible parts for consumers. The study is based on qualitative case study methods, analyzing secondary data from academic papers and news articles as well as companies’ own announcements e.g. stock exchange and press releases. The study finds that the companies in the cases mainly possessed asset-seeking and market-seeking motives. In addition, the findings refer to rather minimal post-acquisition brand and product integration strategies. Mainly the parent companies left the target company autonomous to make their own business strategies and decisions. The most noticeable integrations were in the product development and production processes. Through restructuring the product architectures, the companies were able to share components and technology between product families and brands, which results in cutting down costs and in increase of profitability and efficiency. In the Geely- Volvo case, the strategy focused more on component sharing and product development know-how, whereas in Tata Motors-Jaguar Land Rover case, the main actions were to cut down costs through component sharing and combine production and distribution networks especially in Asian markets. However, it was evident that in both cases the integration and technology sharing were executed cautiously to prevent on harming the valuable image of the luxury brand. This study has concluded that the asset-seeking motives have significant influence on the posttransaction brand and model line-up integration strategies. By taking a cautious approach in acquiring assets, such as luxury brand, the companies in the cases have implemented a successful post-acquisition strategy and managed to create value for the shareholders at least in short-term. Yritykset harjoittavat yritysostoja luodakseen osakkeenomistajille lisäarvoa. Viimeisten muutamien vuosikymmenien aikana yritykset kehittyvissä maissa ovat myös aktivoituneet yritysostoissa. Viimeisen vuosikymmenen aikana erityisesti autoteollisuudessa on esiintynyt suuria ja merkittäviä yritysostoja. Koska kilpailu kotimaan markkinoilla on kiristynyt ja yritykset ovat vailla vaadittavia valmiuksia, ne etsivät mahdollisuuksiaan laajentaa länsimaisiin markkinoihin hankkimalla arvokkaita etuja kehittyneiden maiden yrityksistä yritysostojen avulla. Tämä tutkimus pohtii näiden yritysostojen olennaisia kysymyksiä ja ominaisuuksia casetutkimuksien kautta. Tutkimuksen tarkoitus oli tunnistaa sekä yritysostojen motiiveja ja brändi- ja mallisto-integraation strategioita että analysoida kyseisten motiivien vaikutusta integraatiostrategiaan. Tapaus-tutkimuksiksi valittiin kiinalaisen Geelyn yritysosto ruotsalaisesta Volvosta vuonna 2010 ja intialaisen Tata Motorsin yritysosto englantilaisesta Jaguar Land Roverista vuonna 2008. Tutkimus on kvalitatiivinen case-tutkimus ja siinä analysoidaan toissijaista tietoa sekä akateemisten ja uutisartikkeleiden että yritysten omien ilmoitusten, kuten pörssi- ja lehdistötiedotteiden, kautta. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat, että tutkittujen yritysten toiminnat perustuivat motiiveihin, joita ajoivat etujen and uusien markkinoiden tarve. Sen lisäksi tutkimustulokset osoittivat, että yritysoston jälkeinen brändi- ja mallisto-integraatio pidettiin minimaalisena. Pääasiallisesti kohdeyrityksille jätettiin autonomia tehdä omat liikkeenjohdolliset päätökset yritysstrategioihin liittyen. Huomattavimmat integraatiot koskivat tuotekehityksellisiä ja tuotannollisia prosesseja. Kehittämällä uudelleen tuotearkkitehtuureja, yritykset pystyivät jakamaan komponentteja ja teknologiaa tuoteperheiden ja brändien välillä. Tämä mahdollisti kustannusleikkauksia sekä kannattavuuden ja tehokkuuden parantamista. Geely-Volvo –tapauksessa integraatiostrategia keskittyi komponenttien jakamiseen yhteisten tuotearkkitehtuurien avulla ja tuotekehityksen ammattitaitoon, kun taas Tata Motors-JLR –tapauksessa päätoiminnat olivat kustannuksien leikkaus sekä tuotannon ja jakeluverkoston yhdistäminen erityisesti Aasian maissa. Yhteistä yrityskaupoissa oli, että brändi- ja mallisto-integraatio sekä teknologian jakaminen suoritettiin varoen ehkäistäkseen arvokkaiden luksus-brändien tuotekuvan vahingoittamista. Tutkimuksen lopputulokset osoittavat, että yrityskaupan motiiveilla on huomattava vaikutus brändija mallisto-integraation strategiaan. Toteuttamalla varovaista lähestymistapaa luksus-brändin hankinnassa ja integraatiossa, yritykset ovat onnistuneet luomaan lisäarvoa osakkeenomistajille vähintään lyhyellä aikavälillä.

Variance reduction properties of dynamic hedging models - empirical evidence from BRICS countries

This Master’s Thesis analyses the effectiveness of different hedging models on BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) countries. Hedging performance is examined by comparing two different dynamic hedging models to conventional OLS regression based model. The dynamic hedging models being employed are Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH(1,1) and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH(1,1) with Student’s t-distribution. In order to capture the period of both Great Moderation and the latest financial crisis, the sample period extends from 2003 to 2014. To determine whether dynamic models outperform the conventional one, the reduction of portfolio variance for in-sample data with contemporaneous hedge ratios is first determined and then the holding period of the portfolios is extended to one and two days. In addition, the accuracy of hedge ratio forecasts is examined on the basis of out-of-sample variance reduction. The results are mixed and suggest that dynamic hedging models may not provide enough benefits to justify harder estimation and daily portfolio adjustment. In this sense, the results are consistent with the existing literature.

Use of airborne laser scanner data in demanding forest conditions

Most of the applications of airborne laser scanner data to forestry require that the point cloud be normalized, i.e., each point represents height from the ground instead of elevation. To normalize the point cloud, a digital terrain model (DTM), which is derived from the ground returns in the point cloud, is employed. Unfortunately, extracting accurate DTMs from airborne laser scanner data is a challenging task, especially in tropical forests where the canopy is normally very thick (partially closed), leading to a situation in which only a limited number of laser pulses reach the ground. Therefore, robust algorithms for extracting accurate DTMs in low-ground-point-densitysituations are needed in order to realize the full potential of airborne laser scanner data to forestry. The objective of this thesis is to develop algorithms for processing airborne laser scanner data in order to: (1) extract DTMs in demanding forest conditions (complex terrain and low number of ground points) for applications in forestry; (2) estimate canopy base height (CBH) for forest fire behavior modeling; and (3) assess the robustness of LiDAR-based high-resolution biomass estimation models against different field plot designs. Here, the aim is to find out if field plot data gathered by professional foresters can be combined with field plot data gathered by professionally trained community foresters and used in LiDAR-based high-resolution biomass estimation modeling without affecting prediction performance. The question of interest in this case is whether or not the local forest communities can achieve the level technical proficiency required for accurate forest monitoring. The algorithms for extracting DTMs from LiDAR point clouds presented in this thesis address the challenges of extracting DTMs in low-ground-point situations and in complex terrain while the algorithm for CBH estimation addresses the challenge of variations in the distribution of points in the LiDAR point cloud caused by things like variations in tree species and season of data acquisition. These algorithms are adaptive (with respect to point cloud characteristics) and exhibit a high degree of tolerance to variations in the density and distribution of points in the LiDAR point cloud. Results of comparison with existing DTM extraction algorithms showed that DTM extraction algorithms proposed in this thesis performed better with respect to accuracy of estimating tree heights from airborne laser scanner data. On the other hand, the proposed DTM extraction algorithms, being mostly based on trend surface interpolation, can not retain small artifacts in the terrain (e.g., bumps, small hills and depressions). Therefore, the DTMs generated by these algorithms are only suitable for forestry applications where the primary objective is to estimate tree heights from normalized airborne laser scanner data. On the other hand, the algorithm for estimating CBH proposed in this thesis is based on the idea of moving voxel in which gaps (openings in the canopy) which act as fuel breaks are located and their height is estimated. Test results showed a slight improvement in CBH estimation accuracy over existing CBH estimation methods which are based on height percentiles in the airborne laser scanner data. However, being based on the idea of moving voxel, this algorithm has one main advantage over existing CBH estimation methods in the context of forest fire modeling: it has great potential in providing information about vertical fuel continuity. This information can be used to create vertical fuel continuity maps which can provide more realistic information on the risk of crown fires compared to CBH.

Model of Big Data Failure: Review of Information System Failure

In the new age of information technology, big data has grown to be the prominent phenomena. As information technology evolves, organizations have begun to adopt big data and apply it as a tool throughout their decision-making processes. Research on big data has grown in the past years however mainly from a technical stance and there is a void in business related cases. This thesis fills the gap in the research by addressing big data challenges and failure cases. The Technology-Organization-Environment framework was applied to carry out a literature review on trends in Business Intelligence and Knowledge management information system failures. A review of extant literature was carried out using a collection of leading information system journals. Academic papers and articles on big data, Business Intelligence, Decision Support Systems, and Knowledge Management systems were studied from both failure and success aspects in order to build a model for big data failure. I continue and delineate the contribution of the Information System failure literature as it is the principal dynamics behind technology-organization-environment framework. The gathered literature was then categorised and a failure model was developed from the identified critical failure points. The failure constructs were further categorized, defined, and tabulated into a contextual diagram. The developed model and table were designed to act as comprehensive starting point and as general guidance for academics, CIOs or other system stakeholders to facilitate decision-making in big data adoption process by measuring the effect of technological, organizational, and environmental variables with perceived benefits, dissatisfaction and discontinued use.

How Is Credit Risk Estimated? Discussion and Evidence based on Cross-Industry Sample Utilizing the KMV Model

The purpose of this thesis is to focus on credit risk estimation. Different credit risk estimation methods and characteristics of credit risk are discussed. The study is twofold, including an interview of a credit risk specialist and a quantitative section. Quantitative section applies the KMV model to estimate credit risk of 12 sample companies from three different industries: automobile, banking and financial sector and technology. Timeframe of the estimation is one year. On the basis of the KMV model and the interview, implications for analysis of credit risk are discussed. The KMV model yields consistent results with the existing credit ratings. However, banking and financial sector requires calibration of the model due to high leverage of the industry. Credit risk is considerably driven by leverage, value and volatility of assets. Credit risk models produce useful information on credit worthiness of a business. Yet, quantitative models often require qualitative support in the decision-making situation.

Model of Big Data Failure: Review of Information System Failure

In the new age of information technology, big data has grown to be the prominent phenomena. As information technology evolves, organizations have begun to adopt big data and apply it as a tool throughout their decision-making processes. Research on big data has grown in the past years however mainly from a technical stance and there is a void in business related cases. This thesis fills the gap in the research by addressing big data challenges and failure cases. The Technology-Organization-Environment framework was applied to carry out a literature review on trends in Business Intelligence and Knowledge management information system failures. A review of extant literature was carried out using a collection of leading information system journals. Academic papers and articles on big data, Business Intelligence, Decision Support Systems, and Knowledge Management systems were studied from both failure and success aspects in order to build a model for big data failure. I continue and delineate the contribution of the Information System failure literature as it is the principal dynamics behind technology-organization-environment framework. The gathered literature was then categorised and a failure model was developed from the identified critical failure points. The failure constructs were further categorized, defined, and tabulated into a contextual diagram. The developed model and table were designed to act as comprehensive starting point and as general guidance for academics, CIOs or other system stakeholders to facilitate decision-making in big data adoption process by measuring the effect of technological, organizational, and environmental variables with perceived benefits, dissatisfaction and discontinued use.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Parameter estimation for Chaotic or Stochastic Dynamics

Since its discovery, chaos has been a very interesting and challenging topic of research. Many great minds spent their entire lives trying to give some rules to it. Nowadays, thanks to the research of last century and the advent of computers, it is possible to predict chaotic phenomena of nature for a certain limited amount of time. The aim of this study is to present a recently discovered method for the parameter estimation of the chaotic dynamical system models via the correlation integral likelihood, and give some hints for a more optimized use of it, together with a possible application to the industry. The main part of our study concerned two chaotic attractors whose general behaviour is diff erent, in order to capture eventual di fferences in the results. In the various simulations that we performed, the initial conditions have been changed in a quite exhaustive way. The results obtained show that, under certain conditions, this method works very well in all the case. In particular, it came out that the most important aspect is to be very careful while creating the training set and the empirical likelihood, since a lack of information in this part of the procedure leads to low quality results.

Healthcare Information System Selection Model for Medical Clinics

The issue of selecting an appropriate healthcare information system is a very essential one. If implemented healthcare information system doesn’t fit particular healthcare institution, for example there are unnecessary functions; healthcare institution wastes its resources and its efficiency decreases. The purpose of this research is to develop a healthcare information system selection model to assist the decision-making process of choosing healthcare information system. Appropriate healthcare information system helps healthcare institutions to become more effective and efficient and keep up with the times. The research is based on comparison analysis of 50 healthcare information systems and 6 interviews with experts from St-Petersburg healthcare institutions that already have experience in healthcare information system utilization. 13 characteristics of healthcare information systems: 5 key and 7 additional features are identified and considered in the selection model development. Variables are used in the selection model in order to narrow the decision algorithm and to avoid duplication of brunches. The questions in the healthcare information systems selection model are designed to be easy-to-understand for common a decision-maker in healthcare institution without permanent establishment.

Performance Degradation Modelling and Techno-Economic Analysis of Lithium-Ion Battery Energy Storage Systems

Transmission system operators and distribution system operators are experiencing new challenges in terms of reliability, power quality, and cost efficiency. Although the potential of energy storages to face those challenges is recognized, the economic implications are still obscure, which introduce the risk into the business models. This thesis aims to investigate the technical and economic value indicators of lithium-ion battery energy storage systems (BESS) in grid-scale applications. In order to do that, a comprehensive performance lithium-ion BESS model with degradation effects estimation is developed. The model development process implies literature review on lifetime modelling, use, and modification of previous study progress, building the additional system parts and integrating it into a complete tool. The constructed model is capable of describing the dynamic behavior of the BESS voltage, state of charge, temperature and capacity loss. Five control strategies for BESS unit providing primary frequency regulation are implemented, in addition to the model. The questions related to BESS dimensioning and the end of life (EoL) criterion are addressed. Simulations are performed with one-month real frequency data acquired from Fingrid. The lifetime and cost-benefit analysis of the simulation results allow to compare and determine the preferable control strategy. Finally, the study performs the sensitivity analysis of economic profitability with variable size, EoL and system price. The research reports that BESS can be profitable in certain cases and presents the recommendations.