Index & judex syncretismorum 10

Invokaatio: In nomine Jesu!

Index & judex syncretismorum 11

Variantti B.

Index & judex syncretismorum 5

Invokaatio: In nomine Jesu!

Index & judex syncretismorum 6

Invokaatio: In nomine Jesu!

Index & judex syncretismorum 3

Invokaatio: In nomine Jesu!

Index & judex syncretismorum 2

Invokaatio: In nomine Jesu!

FUTURES OF FINNISH FOOD SYSTEM BY 2050. The perspective of resilience

Modern food systems face complex global challenges such as climate change, resource scarcities, population growth, concentration and globalization. It is not possible to forecast how all these challenges will affect food systems, but futures research methods provide possibilities to enable better understanding of possible futures and that way increases futures awareness. In this thesis, the two-round online Delphi method was utilized to research experts’ opinions about the present and the future resilience of the Finnish food system up to 2050. The first round questionnaire was constructed based on the resilience indicators developed for agroecosystems. Sub-systems in the study were primary production (main focus), food industry, retail and consumption. Based on the results from the first round, the future images were constructed for primary production and food industry sub-sections. The second round asked experts’ opinion about the future images’ probability and desirability. In addition, panarchy scenarios were constructed by using the adaptive cycle and panarchy frameworks. Furthermore, a new approach to general resilience indicators was developed combining “categories” of the social ecological systems (structure, behaviors and governance) and general resilience parameters (tightness of feedbacks, modularity, diversity, the amount of change a system can withstand, capacity of learning and self- organizing behavior). The results indicate that there are strengths in the Finnish food system for building resilience. According to experts organic farms and larger farms are perceived as socially self-organized, which can promote innovations and new experimentations for adaptation to changing circumstances. In addition, organic farms are currently seen as the most ecologically self-regulated farms. There are also weaknesses in the Finnish food system restricting resilience building. It is important to reach optimal redundancy, in which efficiency and resilience are in balance. In the whole food system, retail sector will probably face the most dramatic changes in the future, especially, when panarchy scenarios and the future images are reflected. The profitability of farms is and will be a critical cornerstone of the overall resilience in primary production. All in all, the food system experts have very positive views concerning the resilience development of the Finnish food system in the future. Sometimes small and local is beautiful, sometimes large and international is more resilient. However, when probabilities and desirability of the future images were questioned, there were significant deviations. It appears that experts do not always believe desirable futures to materialize.

The Forecast Performance of Model-Free Implied Volatility: Evidence from DAX Index Options

Volatility has a central role in various theoretical and practical applications in financial markets. These include the applications related to portfolio theory, derivatives pricing and financial risk management. Both theoretical and practical applications require good estimates and forecasts for the asset return volatility. The goal of this study is to examine the forecast performance of one of the more recent volatility measures, model-free implied volatility. Model-free implied volatility is extracted from the prices in the option markets, and it aims to provide an unbiased estimate for the market’s expectation on the future level of volatility. Since it is extracted from the option prices, model-free implied volatility should contain all the relevant information that the market participants have. Moreover, model-free implied volatility requires less restrictive assumptions than the commonly used Black-Scholes implied volatility, which means that it should be less biased estimate for the market’s expectations. Therefore, it should also be a better forecast for the future volatility. The forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is evaluated by comparing it to the forecast performance of Black-Scholes implied volatility and GARCH(1,1) forecast. Weekly forecasts for six years period were calculated for the forecasted variable, German stock market index DAX. The data consisted of price observations for DAX index options. The forecast performance was measured using econometric methods, which aimed to capture the biasedness, accuracy and the information content of the forecasts. The results of the study suggest that the forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is superior to forecast performance of GARCH(1,1) forecast. However, the results also suggest that the forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is not as good as the forecast performance of Black-Scholes implied volatility, which is against the hypotheses based on theory. The results of this study are consistent with the majority of prior research on the subject.

FUTURES OF FINNISH FOOD SYSTEM BY 2050. The perspective of resilience

Modern food systems face complex global challenges such as climate change, resource scarcities, population growth, concentration and globalization. It is not possible to forecast how all these challenges will affect food systems, but futures research methods provide possibilities to enable better understanding of possible futures and that way increases futures awareness. In this thesis, the two-round online Delphi method was utilized to research experts’ opinions about the present and the future resilience of the Finnish food system up to 2050. The first round questionnaire was constructed based on the resilience indicators developed for agroecosystems. Sub-systems in the study were primary production (main focus), food industry, retail and consumption. Based on the results from the first round, the future images were constructed for primary production and food industry sub-sections. The second round asked experts’ opinion about the future images’ probability and desirability. In addition, panarchy scenarios were constructed by using the adaptive cycle and panarchy frameworks. Furthermore, a new approach to general resilience indicators was developed combining “categories” of the social ecological systems (structure, behaviors and governance) and general resilience parameters (tightness of feedbacks, modularity, diversity, the amount of change a system can withstand, capacity of learning and self- organizing behavior). The results indicate that there are strengths in the Finnish food system for building resilience. According to experts organic farms and larger farms are perceived as socially self-organized, which can promote innovations and new experimentations for adaptation to changing circumstances. In addition, organic farms are currently seen as the most ecologically self-regulated farms. There are also weaknesses in the Finnish food system restricting resilience building. It is important to reach optimal redundancy, in which efficiency and resilience are in balance. In the whole food system, retail sector will probably face the most dramatic changes in the future, especially, when panarchy scenarios and the future images are reflected. The profitability of farms is and will be a critical cornerstone of the overall resilience in primary production. All in all, the food system experts have very positive views concerning the resilience development of the Finnish food system in the future. Sometimes small and local is beautiful, sometimes large and international is more resilient. However, when probabilities and desirability of the future images were questioned, there were significant deviations. It appears that experts do not always believe desirable futures to materialize.

Hävittäjäohjaajan kognitiivisen kuormituksen tason mittaaminen NASA-Task Load Index ja Modified Cooper-Harper -mittareilla F/A-18 virtuaalisimulaattorissa

F/A-18-monitoimihävittäjän ohjaajan tehtävän kognitiiviset vaatimukset ovat korkeat. Kognitiivisen kuormituksen taso vaikuttaa hävittäjäohjaajan suoritustasoon ja subjektiivisiin tun-temuksiin. Yerkesin ja Dodsonin periaatteen mukaisesti erittäin matala tai erittäin korkea kuormituksen taso laskee suoritustasoa. Optimaalinen kuormituksen taso ja suoritustaso saa-vutetaan jossain ääripäiden välillä. Hävittäjäohjaajan kognitiivisen kuormituksen tasoon vaikuttaa lentotehtävän suorittamiseen vaadittava henkinen ponnistelu. Vaadittavan ponnistelun taso riippuu tehtävien vaatimustasosta ja määrästä, tehtäviin käytettävissä olevasta ajasta sekä yksilöllisistä ominaisuuksista. Tutkimuksessa mitattiin kognitiivisen kuormituksen tasoa subjektiivisen arvioinnin menetelmällä NASA-TLX (National Aeronautics and Space Administration - Task Load Index) ja MCH (Modified Cooper-Harper) -mittareilla. Tutkimuksessa selvitettiin mittareiden havaintoarvojen muutosta, sensitiivisyyttä ja yhdenmukaisuutta kognitiivisen kuormituksen tason muuttuessa. Tutkimuksen mittauksiin osallistui 35 Suomen ilmavoimien aktiivisessa palveluksessa olevaa F/A-18-monitoimihävittäjäohjaajaa. Koehenkilöiden lentotuntien keskiarvo F/A-18-monitoimihävittäjällä oli 598 tuntia ja keskihajonta 445 tuntia. Koehenkilöiden tehtävänä oli lentää F/A-18-virtuaalisimulaattorilla 11 ILS (Instrument Landing System) -mittarilähestymistä eri aloitusetäisyyksiltä kiitotien kynnyksestä. Kognitiivisesti kuormitta-van mittarilähestymistehtävän aikana kuormituksen tasoa nostettiin lisätehtävillä ja vähentä-mällä tehtäviin käytettävissä olevaa aikaa. Koehenkilöitä pyydettiin ponnistelemaan mahdollisimman paljon tehtävien suorittamisen aikana hyvän suoritustason ylläpitämiseksi. Tulosten perusteella mittareiden havaintoarvot muuttuivat kognitiivisen kuormituksen tason muuttuessa. Käytettävissä olevan ajan vaikutus kognitiivisen kuormituksen tasoon oli tilastollisesti erittäin merkitsevä. Mittarit olivat sensitiivisiä kognitiivisen kuormituksen tason muutokselle ja antoivat yhdenmukaisia havaintoarvoja.