A Bayesian Approach for Forecasting Heat Load in a District Heating System

The growing population in cities increases the energy demand and affects the environment by increasing carbon emissions. Information and communications technology solutions which enable energy optimization are needed to address this growing energy demand in cities and to reduce carbon emissions. District heating systems optimize the energy production by reusing waste energy with combined heat and power plants. Forecasting the heat load demand in residential buildings assists in optimizing energy production and consumption in a district heating system. However, the presence of a large number of factors such as weather forecast, district heating operational parameters and user behavioural parameters, make heat load forecasting a challenging task. This thesis proposes a probabilistic machine learning model using a Naive Bayes classifier, to forecast the hourly heat load demand for three residential buildings in the city of Skellefteå, Sweden over a period of winter and spring seasons. The district heating data collected from the sensors equipped at the residential buildings in Skellefteå, is utilized to build the Bayesian network to forecast the heat load demand for horizons of 1, 2, 3, 6 and 24 hours. The proposed model is validated by using four cases to study the influence of various parameters on the heat load forecast by carrying out trace driven analysis in Weka and GeNIe. Results show that current heat load consumption and outdoor temperature forecast are the two parameters with most influence on the heat load forecast. The proposed model achieves average accuracies of 81.23 % and 76.74 % for a forecast horizon of 1 hour in the three buildings for winter and spring seasons respectively. The model also achieves an average accuracy of 77.97 % for three buildings across both seasons for the forecast horizon of 1 hour by utilizing only 10 % of the training data. The results indicate that even a simple model like Naive Bayes classifier can forecast the heat load demand by utilizing less training data.

Benefits of gas driven ground source heat pump systems

This thesis studies energy efficiencies and technical properties of gas driven ground source heat pumps and pump systems. The research focuses on two technologies: gas engine driven compressor heat pump and thermally driven gas absorption heat pump. System consist of a gas driven compressor or absorption ground source heat pump and a gas condensing boiler, which covers peak load. The reference system is a standard electrically powered compressor heat pump with electric heating elements for peak load. The systems are compared through primary energy ratios. Coefficient of performances of different heat pump technologies are also compared. At heat pump level, gas driven heat pumps are having lower coefficient of performances as compared with corresponding electric driven heat pump. However, gas heat pumps are competitive when primary energy ratios, where electricity production losses are counted in, are compared. Technically, gas heat pumps can potentially achieve a slightly higher temperatures with greater total energy efficiency as compared to the electric driven heat pump. The primary energy ratios of gas heat pump systems in relation to EHP-system improves when the share of peak load increases. Electric heat pump system's overall energy efficiency is heavily dependent on the electricity production efficiency. Economy as well as CO2-emissions were not examined in this thesis, which however, would be good topics for further study.

Effects of Fin Parameters on Gas-Side Heat Transfer Performance of H-Type Finned Tube Bundle in a Waste Heat Recovery Boiler

Alfa Laval Aalborg Oy designs and manufactures waste heat recovery systems utilizing extended surfaces. The waste heat recovery boiler considered in this thesis is a water-tube boiler where exhaust gas is used as the convective heat transfer medium and water or steam flowing inside the tubes is subject to cross-flow. This thesis aims to contribute to the design of waste heat recovery boiler unit by developing a numerical model of the H-type finned tube bundle currently used by Alfa Laval Aalborg Oy to evaluate the gas-side heat transfer performance. The main objective is to identify weaknesses and potential areas of development in the current H-type finned tube design. In addition, numerical simulations for a total of 15 cases with varying geometric parameters are conducted to investigate the heat transfer and pressure drop performance dependent on H-type fin geometry. The investigated geometric parameters include fin width and height, fin spacing, and fin thickness. Comparison between single and double tube type configuration is also conducted. Based on the simulation results, the local heat transfer and flow behaviour of the H-type finned tube is presented including boundary layer development between the fins, the formation of recirculation zone behind the tubes, and the local variations of flow velocity and temperature within the tube bundle and on the fin surface. Moreover, an evaluation of the effects of various fin parameters on heat transfer and pressure drop performance of H-type finned tube bundle has been provided. It was concluded that from the studied parameters fin spacing and fin width had the most significant effect on tube bundle performance and the effect of fin thickness was the least important. Furthermore, the results suggested that the heat transfer performance would increase due to enhanced turbulence if the current double tube configuration is replaced with single tube configuration, but further investigation and experimental measurements are required in order to validate the results.

Optimizing the Performance of a Heat Exchanger Network

This research is the continuation and a joint work with a master thesis that has been done in this department recently by Hemamali Chathurangani Yashika Jayathunga. The mathematical system of the equations in the designed Heat Exchanger Network synthesis has been extended by adding a number of equipment; such as heat exchangers, mixers and dividers. The solutions of the system is obtained and the optimal setting of the valves (Each divider contains a valve) is calculated by introducing grid-based optimization. Finding the best position of the valves will lead to maximization of the transferred heat in the hot stream and minimization of the pressure drop in the cold stream. The aim of the following thesis will be achieved by practicing the cost optimization to model an optimized network.

Experimentation on Wind Powered Hydraulic Heating System

It is common knowledge of the world’s dependency on fossil fuel for energy, its unsustainability on the long run and the changing trend towards renewable energy as an alternative energy source. This aims to cut down greenhouse gas emission and its impact on the rate of ecological and climatic change. Quite remarkably, wind energy has been one of many focus areas of renewable energy sources and has attracted lots of investment and technological advancement. The objective of this research is to explore wind energy and its application in household heating. This research aims at applying experimental approach in real time to study and verify a virtually simulated wind powered hydraulic house heating system. The hardware components comprise of an integrated hydraulic pump, flow control valve, hydraulic fluid and other hydraulic components. The system design and control applies hardware in-the-loop (HIL) simulation setup. Output signal from the semi-empirical turbine modelling controls the integrated motor to generate flow. Throttling the volume flow creates pressure drop across the valve and subsequently thermal power in the system to be outputted using a heat exchanger. Maximum thermal power is achieved by regulating valve orifice to achieve optimum system parameter. Savonius rotor is preferred for its low inertia, high starting torque and ease of design and maintenance characteristics, but lags in power efficiency. A prototype turbine design is used; with power output in range of practical Savonius turbine. The physical mechanism of the prototype turbine’s augmentation design is not known and will not be a focus in this study.

Heat Demand Forecasting Models’ Development: Use of Data Mining Tools in SQL Server Analysis Services

This thesis introduces heat demand forecasting models which are generated by using data mining algorithms. The forecast spans one full day and this forecast can be used in regulating heat consumption of buildings. For training the data mining models, two years of heat consumption data from a case building and weather measurement data from Finnish Meteorological Institute are used. The thesis utilizes Microsoft SQL Server Analysis Services data mining tools in generating the data mining models and CRISP-DM process framework to implement the research. Results show that the built models can predict heat demand at best with mean average percentage errors of 3.8% for 24-h profile and 5.9% for full day. A deployment model for integrating the generated data mining models into an existing building energy management system is also discussed.

Determination of the thermal parameters of high-power batteries by local heat

A new approach to the determination of the thermal parameters of high-power batteries is introduced here. Application of local heat flux measurement with a gradient heat flux sensor (GHFS) allows determination of the cell thermal parameters in di_erent surface points of the cell. The suggested methodology is not cell destructive as it does not require deep discharge of the cell or application of any charge/discharge cycles during measurements of the thermal parameters of the cell. The complete procedure is demonstrated on a high-power Li-ion pouch cell, and it is verified on a sample with well-known thermal parameters. A comparison of the experimental results with conventional thermal characterization methods shows an acceptably low error. The dependence of the cell thermal parameters on state of charge (SoC) and measurement points on the surface was studied by the proposed measurement approach.

A high efficiency microturbine concept

There is a growing trend towards decentralized electricity and heat production throughout the world. Reciprocating engines and gas turbines have an essential role in the global decentralized energy markets and any improvement in their electrical efficiency has a significant impact from the environmental and economic viewpoints. This paper introduces an inter-cooled and recuperated two-shaft microturbine at 500 kW electric output range. The microturbine is optimized for a realistic combination of the turbine inlet temperature, the recuperation rate and the pressure ratio. The new microturbine design aims to achieve significantly increased performance within the range of microturbines and even competing with the efficiencies achieved in large industrial gas turbines. The simulated electrical efficiency is 45%. Improving the efficiency of combined heat and power (CHP) systems will significantly decrease the emissions and operating costs of decentralized heat and electricity production. Cost-effective, compact and environmentally friendly micro-and small-scale CHP turbine systems with high electrical efficiency will have an opportunity to successfully compete against reciprocating engines, which today are used in heat and power generation all over the world and manufactured in large production series. This paper presents a small-scale gas turbine process, capable of competing with reciprocating engine in terms of electrical efficiency.

Heat-transfer improvements in an axial-flux permanent-magnet synchronous machine

Axial-flux machines tend to have cooling difficulties since it is difficult to arrange continuous heat path between the stator stack and the frame. One important reason for this is that no shrink fitting of the stator is possible in an axial-flux machine. Using of liquid-cooled end shields does not alone solve this issue. Cooling of the rotor and the end windings may also be difficult at least in case of two-stator-single-rotor construction where air circulation in the rotor and in the end-winding areas may be difficult to arrange. If the rotor has significant losses air circulation via the rotor and behind the stator yokes should be arranged which, again, weakens the stator cooling. In this paper we study a novel way of using copper bars as extra heat transfer paths between the stator teeth and liquid cooling pools in the end shields. After this the end windings still suffer of low thermal conductivity and means for improving this by high-heat-conductance material was also studied. The design principle of each cooling system is presented in details. Thermal models based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) are used to analyse the temperature distribution in the machine. Measurement results are provided from different versions of the machine. The results show that significant improvements in the cooling can be gained by these steps.

Case: Kitaravahvistimen AB-luokan tehovahvistimen päivittäminen D-luokkaan

D-luokan vahvistimien etu perinteisiin A- tai AB-luokan vahvistimiin nähden on niitten korkea hyötysuhde ja pieni koko. Lisäksi ne ovat edullisia ja niihin voidaan asentaa pienemmät jäähdytyslevyt kuin perinteisiin vahvistimiin korkean hyötysuhteen ansiosta. Tässä tutkimuksessa asennetaan Peavey Solo –kitaravahvistimen pääteasteena toimivan AB-luokan päätevahvistimen tilalle tehokkaampi ja uudempaa vahvistinluokkaa edustava D-luokan vahvistin. Tutkimuksessa selvitetään, miten D-luokan vahvistimella toteutettu kytkentä toimii verrattuna alkuperäiseen kytkentään tutkimalla kitaravahvistimelle tyypillisiä sähköisiä ominaisuuksia. Työ toteutetaan mittauksin. Koska työssä olevissa kytkennöissä on jännitteisiä osia, on siinä perehdyttävä sähköturvallisuuteen. D-luokan vahvistin asettaa tietyt sähkötekniset kestävyysvaatimukset kytkennän teholähteelle ja kaiutinelementille, jolloin työssä paneudutaan myös niiden valintaan. D-luokan vahvistimeen päivitetyn kytkennän tuottamat äänenpainetasot olivat valtaosassa mittauksia suuremmat kuin alkuperäisellä kytkennällä. Äänenpainetasojen mittaustilanteissa myös kuormalle syötetyt tehot olivat suuremmat päivitetyllä kytkennällä verrattuna alkuperäiseen. Suurin päivitetyn kytkennän kuorman teho 72,72 W saavutettiin, kun kaiutinelementin yli oli 24,12 V:n jännitteen tehollisarvo ja kuorman teho oli noin 36 kertaa suurempi kuin alkuperäisellä kytkennällä. D-luokan vahvistimen mitatut harmonisen särön arvot ovat huomattavasti pienempiä kuin alkuperäisellä vahvistimella. Muokkaamattoman vahvistimen mitatusta sähköisestä taajuusvasteeesta nähdään, että alkuperäinen vahvistin korostaa tiettyjä taajuuksia, kun D-luokan vahvistimen taajuusvaste on sen sijaan likimain tasainen. Akustinen taajuusvaste ei ole niin tasainen D-luokan vahvistimeen päivitetyllä kytkennällä kuin alkuperäisellä kytkennällä ja sillä on myös kapeampi taajuusalue. Jos päivitetyn kytkennän sointia haluttaisiin parantaa, pitäisi tutkia lisää akustiseen taajuusvasteeseen vaikuttavia asioita.

Dynamic Modelling of Circulating Fluidized Bed Plant with Gas Turbine Repowering

Increasing amount of renewable energy source based electricity production has set high load control requirements for power grid balance markets. The essential grid balance between electricity consumption and generation is currently hard to achieve economically with new-generation solutions. Therefore conventional combustion power generation will be examined in this thesis as a solution to the foregoing issue. Circulating fluidized bed (CFB) technology is known to have sufficient scale to acts as a large grid balancing unit. Although the load change rate of the CFB unit is known to be moderately high, supplementary repowering solution will be evaluated in this thesis for load change maximization. The repowering heat duty is delivered to the CFB feed water preheating section by smaller gas turbine (GT) unit. Consequently, steam extraction preheating may be decreased and large amount of the gas turbine exhaust heat may be utilized in the CFB process to reach maximum plant electrical efficiency. Earlier study of the repowering has focused on the efficiency improvements and retrofitting to maximize plant electrical output. This study however presents the CFB load change improvement possibilities achieved with supplementary GT heat. The repowering study is prefaced with literature and theory review for both of the processes to maximize accuracy of the research. Both dynamic and steady-state simulations accomplished with APROS simulation tool will be used to evaluate repowering effects to the CFB unit operation. Eventually, a conceptual level analysis is completed to compare repowered plant performance to the state-of-the-art CFB performance. Based on the performed simulations, considerably good improvements to the CFB process parameters are achieved with repowering. Consequently, the results show possibilities to higher ramp rate values achieved with repowered CFB technology. This enables better plant suitability to the grid balance markets.

Modelling the exothermic heat and the demand of cooling in paper and pulp industry biological wastewater treatment

This master thesis presents a study on the requisite cooling of an activated sludge process in paper and pulp industry. The energy consumption of paper and pulp industry and it’s wastewater treatment plant in particular is relatively high. It is therefore useful to understand the wastewater treatment process of such industries. The activated sludge process is a biological mechanism which degrades carbonaceous compounds that are present in waste. The modified activated sludge model constructed here aims to imitate the bio-kinetics of an activated sludge process. However, due to the complicated non-linear behavior of the biological process, modelling this system is laborious and intriguing. We attempt to find a system solution first using steady-state modelling of Activated Sludge Model number 1 (ASM1), approached by Euler’s method and an ordinary differential equation solver. Furthermore, an enthalpy study of paper and pulp industry’s vital pollutants was carried out and applied to revise the temperature shift over a period of time to formulate the operation of cooling water. This finding will lead to a forecast of the plant process execution in a cost-effective manner and management of effluent efficiency. The final stage of the thesis was achieved by optimizing the steady state of ASM1.

Leak-proof Heat Sealing of Press-Formed Paperboard Trays

Three-dimensional (3D) forming of paperboard and heat sealing of lidding films to trays manufactured by the press forming process are investigated in this thesis. The aim of the work was to investigate and recognize the factors affecting the quality of heat sealing and the leak resistance (tightness) of press-formed, polymer-coated paperboard trays heatsealed with a multi-layer polymer based lidding film. One target was to achieve a solution that can be used in food packaging using modified atmosphere packaging (MAP). The main challenge in acquiring adequate tightness properties for the use of MAP is creases in the sealing area of the paperboard trays which can act as capillary tubes and prevent leak-proof sealing. Several experiments were made to investigate the effect of different factors and process parameters in the forming and sealing processes. Also different methods of analysis, such as microscopic analysis and 3D-profilometry were used to investigate the structure of the creases in the sealing area, and to analyse the surface characteristics of the tray flange of the formed trays to define quality that can be sealed with satisfactory tightness for the use of MAP. The main factors and parameters that had an effect on the result of leak-proof sealing and must be adjusted accordingly were the tray geometry and dimensions, blank holding force in press forming, surface roughness of the sealing area, the geometry and depth of the creases, and the sealing pressure. The results show that the quality of press-formed, polymer-coated paperboard trays and multi-layer polymer lidding films can be satisfactory for the use of modified atmosphere packaging in food solutions. Suitable tools, materials, and process parameters have to be selected and used during the tray manufacturing process and lid sealing process, however. Utilizing these solutions and results makes it possible for a package that is made mostly from renewable and recyclable sources to be a considerable alternative for packages made completely from oil based polymers, and to achieve a greater market share for fibre-based solutions in food packaging using MAP.

Failure modes of passive decay heat removing safety systems of modern nuclear power plants

The purpose of this master’s thesis is to gain an understanding of passive safety systems’ role in modern nuclear reactors projects and to research the failure modes of passive decay heat removal safety systems which use phenomenon of natural circulation. Another purpose is to identify the main physical principles and phenomena which are used to establish passive safety tools in nuclear power plants. The work describes passive decay heat removal systems used in AES-2006 project and focuses on the behavior of SPOT PG system. The descriptions of the main large-scale research facilities of the passive safety systems of the AES-2006 power plant are also included. The work contains the calculations of the SPOT PG system, which was modeled with thermal-hydraulic system code TRACE. The dimensions of the calculation model are set according to the dimensions of the real SPOT PG system. In these calculations three parameters are investigated as a function of decay heat power: the pressure of the system, the natural circulation mass flow rate around the closed loop, and the level of liquid in the downcomer. The purpose of the calculations is to test the ability of the SPOT PG system to remove the decay heat from the primary side of the nuclear reactor in case of failure of one, two, or three loops out of four. The calculations show that three loops of the SPOT PG system have adequate capacity to provide the necessary level of safety. In conclusion, the work supports the view that passive systems could be widely spread in modern nuclear projects.