EXPLOITING SCENARIO PLANNING FOR STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF THE EXTERNAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT Future insights of the European pet food sector

The purpose of this study is to explore how scenarios can be exploited in strategic assessment of the external business environment. One of the key challenges for managers worldwide is to adapt their businesses to the ever-changing business environment. As the companies’ external business environment is constantly presenting new opportunities and threats, it is extremely important that companies continuously monitor the possible changes happening around it. As the speed of change rises, assessing the future has become more and more vital. The study was conducted as an exploratory research and the research strategy was influenced by scenario planning and case study strategy. The study examined the European pet food sector from the future point of view. Qualitative study was chosen as research approach and empirical data was collected primarily by seven expert interviews. The secondary data about the sector was applied as complementary empirical data. In the theoretical part of the research it was discovered that nowadays, traditional analysis frameworks are ill-suited for strategic assessment of the external business environment. This is why a self-created combination framework for analysis was employed both as study’s theoretical framework and analysis technique. Furthermore, the framework formed the base for interview questions. Both in theoretical and the empirical part of the study it was found that today, in strategic assessment of the external business environment, besides setting focus on the current situation, it is important to concentrate also on the future. The traditional analysis frameworks offer a good starting point for collecting relevant data but they do not encourage conducting a deeper analysis. By adding characteristics from scenario planning to these more traditional tools, a new analysis framework was created, which ensured the more comprehensive analysis. By understanding the interconnections between discovered phenomena and changes, and by recognizing uncertainties, the user is helped to reflect the environment more profoundly. The contributions of the study are both theoretical and managerial. A new analysis framework strives to answer to the current needs for strategic assessment of external business environment and the framework was tested in the context of European pet food sector. When it comes to managerial contributions, the importance lies in understanding the future. Managers must take future into account and understand that future includes various possibilities which all must be reflected