Bayesian methods for estimation, optimization and experimental design

Mathematical models often contain parameters that need to be calibrated from measured data. The emergence of efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods has made the Bayesian approach a standard tool in quantifying the uncertainty in the parameters. With MCMC, the parameter estimation problem can be solved in a fully statistical manner, and the whole distribution of the parameters can be explored, instead of obtaining point estimates and using, e.g., Gaussian approximations. In this thesis, MCMC methods are applied to parameter estimation problems in chemical reaction engineering, population ecology, and climate modeling. Motivated by the climate model experiments, the methods are developed further to make them more suitable for problems where the model is computationally intensive. After the parameters are estimated, one can start to use the model for various tasks. Two such tasks are studied in this thesis: optimal design of experiments, where the task is to design the next measurements so that the parameter uncertainty is minimized, and model-based optimization, where a model-based quantity, such as the product yield in a chemical reaction model, is optimized. In this thesis, novel ways to perform these tasks are developed, based on the output of MCMC parameter estimation. A separate topic is dynamical state estimation, where the task is to estimate the dynamically changing model state, instead of static parameters. For example, in numerical weather prediction, an estimate of the state of the atmosphere must constantly be updated based on the recently obtained measurements. In this thesis, a novel hybrid state estimation method is developed, which combines elements from deterministic and random sampling methods.

Optimization of the refining and shoe press in board production

Optimointi on tavallinen toimenpide esimerkiksi prosessin muuttamisen tai uusimisen jälkeen. Optimoinnilla pyritään etsimään vaikkapa tiettyjen laatuominaisuuksien kannalta paras tapa ajaa prosessia tai erinäisiä prosessin osia. Tämän työn tarkoituksena oli investoinnin jälkeen optimoida neljä muuttujaa, erään runkoon menevän massan jauhatus ja määrä, märkäpuristus sekä spray –tärkin määrä, kolmen laatuominaisuuden, palstautumislujuuden, geometrisen taivutusjäykkyyden ja sileyden, suhteen. Työtä varten tehtiin viisi tehdasmittakaavaista koeajoa. Ensimmäisessä koeajossa oli tarkoitus lisätä vettä tai spray –tärkkiä kolmikerroskartongin toiseen kerrosten rajapintaan, toisessa koeajossa muutettiin, jo aiemmin mainitun runkoon menevän massan jauhatusta ja jauhinkombinaatioita. Ensimmäisessä koeajossa tutkittiin palstautumislujuuden, toisessa koeajossa muiden lujuusominaisuuksien kehittymistä. Kolmannessa koeajossa tutkittiin erään runkoon menevän massan jauhatuksen ja määrän sekä kenkäpuristimen viivapaineen muutoksen vaikutusta palstautumislujuuteen, geometriseen taivutusjäykkyyteen sekä sileyteen. Neljännessä koeajossa yritettiin toistaa edellisen koeajon paras piste ja parametreja hieman muuttamalla saada aikaan vieläkin paremmat laatuominaisuudet. Myös tässä kokeessa tutkittiin muuttujien vaikutusta palstautumislujuuteen, geometriseen taivutusjäykkyyteen ja sileyteen. Viimeisen kokeen tarkoituksena oli tutkia samaisen runkoon menevän massan vähentämisen vaikutusta palstautumislujuuteen. Erinäisistä vastoinkäymisistä johtuen, koeajoista saadut tulokset jäivät melko laihoiksi. Kokeista kävi kuitenkin ilmi, että lujuusominaisuudet eivät parantuneet, vaikka jauhatusta jatkettiin. Lujuusominaisuuksien kehittymisen kannalta turha jauhatus pystyttiin siis jättämään pois ja näin säästämään energiaa sekä säästymään pitkälle viedyn jauhatuksen mahdollisesti aiheuttamilta muilta ongelmilta. Vähemmällä jauhatuksella ominaissärmäkuorma saatiin myös pidettyä alle tehtaalla halutun tason. Puuttuvat lujuusominaisuudet täytyy saavuttaa muilla keinoin.

Search Engine Optimization Methods & Search Engine Indexing for CMS Applications

Search engine optimization & marketing is a set of processes widely used on websites to improve search engine rankings which generate quality web traffic and increase ROI. Content is the most important part of any website. CMS web development is now become very essential for most of organizations and online businesses to develop their online system and websites. Every online business using a CMS wants to get users (customers) to make profit and ROI. This thesis comprises a brief study of existing SEO methods, tools and techniques and how they can be implemented to optimize a content base website. In results, the study provides recommendations about how to use SEO methods; tools and techniques to optimize CMS based websites on major search engines. This study compares popular CMS systems like Drupal, WordPress and Joomla SEO features and how implementing SEO can be improved on these CMS systems. Having knowledge of search engine indexing and search engine working is essential for a successful SEO campaign. This work is a complete guideline for web developers or SEO experts who want to optimize a CMS based website on all major search engines.

Simulation and optimization of IGCC technique for power generation and hydrogen production by using lignite Thar coal and cotton stalk

The purpose of this study was to simulate and to optimize integrated gasification for combine cycle (IGCC) for power generation and hydrogen (H2) production by using low grade Thar lignite coal and cotton stalk. Lignite coal is abundant of moisture and ash content, the idea of addition of cotton stalk is to increase the mass of combustible material per mass of feed use for the process, to reduce the consumption of coal and to increase the cotton stalk efficiently for IGCC process. Aspen plus software is used to simulate the process with different mass ratios of coal to cotton stalk and for optimization: process efficiencies, net power generation and H2 production etc. are considered while environmental hazard emissions are optimized to acceptance level. With the addition of cotton stalk in feed, process efficiencies started to decline along with the net power production. But for H2 production, it gave positive result at start but after 40% cotton stalk addition, H2 production also started to decline. It also affects negatively on environmental hazard emissions and mass of emissions/ net power production increases linearly with the addition of cotton stalk in feed mixture. In summation with the addition of cotton stalk, overall affects seemed to negative. But the effect is more negative after 40% cotton stalk addition so it is concluded that to get maximum process efficiencies and high production less amount of cotton stalk addition in feed is preferable and the maximum level of addition is estimated to 40%. Gasification temperature should keep lower around 1140 °C and prefer technique for studied feed in IGCC is fluidized bed (ash in dry form) rather than ash slagging gasifier

Generalized Differential Evolution for Global Multi-Objective Optimization with Constraints

The objective of this thesis work is to develop and study the Differential Evolution Algorithm for multi-objective optimization with constraints. Differential Evolution is an evolutionary algorithm that has gained in popularity because of its simplicity and good observed performance. Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms have become popular since they are able to produce a set of compromise solutions during the search process to approximate the Pareto-optimal front. The starting point for this thesis was an idea how Differential Evolution, with simple changes, could be extended for optimization with multiple constraints and objectives. This approach is implemented, experimentally studied, and further developed in the work. Development and study concentrates on the multi-objective optimization aspect. The main outcomes of the work are versions of a method called Generalized Differential Evolution. The versions aim to improve the performance of the method in multi-objective optimization. A diversity preservation technique that is effective and efficient compared to previous diversity preservation techniques is developed. The thesis also studies the influence of control parameters of Differential Evolution in multi-objective optimization. Proposals for initial control parameter value selection are given. Overall, the work contributes to the diversity preservation of solutions in multi-objective optimization.

The Possibilities and Dosimetric Limitations of MLC-Based Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy Delivery and Optimization Techniques

The use of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) has increased extensively in the modern radiotherapy (RT) treatments over the past two decades. Radiation dose distributions can be delivered with higher conformality with IMRT when compared to the conventional 3D-conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT). Higher conformality and target coverage increases the probability of tumour control and decreases the normal tissue complications. The primary goal of this work is to improve and evaluate the accuracy, efficiency and delivery techniques of RT treatments by using IMRT. This study evaluated the dosimetric limitations and possibilities of IMRT in small (treatments of head-and-neck, prostate and lung cancer) and large volumes (primitive neuroectodermal tumours). The dose coverage of target volumes and the sparing of critical organs were increased with IMRT when compared to 3D-CRT. The developed split field IMRT technique was found to be safe and accurate method in craniospinal irradiations. By using IMRT in simultaneous integrated boosting of biologically defined target volumes of localized prostate cancer high doses were achievable with only small increase in the treatment complexity. Biological plan optimization increased the probability of uncomplicated control on average by 28% when compared to standard IMRT delivery. Unfortunately IMRT carries also some drawbacks. In IMRT the beam modulation is realized by splitting a large radiation field to small apertures. The smaller the beam apertures are the larger the rebuild-up and rebuild-down effects are at the tissue interfaces. The limitations to use IMRT with small apertures in the treatments of small lung tumours were investigated with dosimetric film measurements. The results confirmed that the peripheral doses of the small lung tumours were decreased as the effective field size was decreased. The studied calculation algorithms were not able to model the dose deficiency of the tumours accurately. The use of small sliding window apertures of 2 mm and 4 mm decreased the tumour peripheral dose by 6% when compared to 3D-CRT treatment plan. A direct aperture based optimization (DABO) technique was examined as a solution to decrease the treatment complexity. The DABO IMRT technique was able to achieve treatment plans equivalent with the conventional IMRT fluence based optimization techniques in the concave head-and-neck target volumes. With DABO the effective field sizes were increased and the number of MUs was reduced with a factor of two. The optimality of a treatment plan and the therapeutic ratio can be further enhanced by using dose painting based on regional radiosensitivities imaged with functional imaging methods.

Optimization of hydrogen plant efficiency

The purpose of this master’s thesis was to study ways to increase the operating cost-efficiency of the hydrogen production process by optimizing the process parameters while, at the same time, maintaining plant reliability and safety. The literature part reviewed other hydrogen production and purification processes as well as raw material alternatives for hydrogen production. The experimental part of the master’s thesis was conducted at Solvay Chemicals Finland Oy’s hydrogen plant in spring 2012. It was performed by changing the process parameters, first, one by one, aiming for a more efficient process with clean product gas and lower natural gas consumption. The values of the process parameters were tested based on the information from the literature, process simulation and experiences of previous similar processes. The studied parameters were reformer outlet temperature, shift converter inlet temperature and steam/carbon ratio. The results show that the optimal process conditions are a lower steam/carbon ratio and reformer outlet temperature than the current values of 3.0 and 798 °C. An increase/decrease in the shift conversion inlet temperature does not affect natural gas consumption, but it has an effect on minimizing the process steam overload.

Optimization as a method of search engine marketing

This study is dedicated to search engine marketing (SEM). It aims for developing a business model of SEM firms and to provide explicit research of trustworthy practices of virtual marketing companies. Optimization is a general term that represents a variety of techniques and methods of the web pages promotion. The research addresses optimization as a business activity, and it explains its role for the online marketing. Additionally, it highlights issues of unethical techniques utilization by marketers which created relatively negative attitude to them on the Internet environment. Literature insight combines in the one place both technical and economical scientific findings in order to highlight technological and business attributes incorporated in SEM activities. Empirical data regarding search marketers was collected via e-mail questionnaires. 4 representatives of SEM companies were engaged in this study to accomplish the business model design. Additionally, the fifth respondent was a representative of the search engine portal, who provided insight on relations between search engines and marketers. Obtained information of the respondents was processed qualitatively. Movement of commercial organizations to the online market increases demand on promotional programs. SEM is the largest part of online marketing, and it is a prerogative of search engines portals. However, skilled users, or marketers, are able to implement long-term marketing programs by utilizing web page optimization techniques, key word consultancy or content optimization to increase web site visibility to search engines and, therefore, user’s attention to the customer pages. SEM firms are related to small knowledge-intensive businesses. On the basis of data analysis the business model was constructed. The SEM model includes generalized constructs, although they represent a wider amount of operational aspects. Constructing blocks of the model includes fundamental parts of SEM commercial activity: value creation, customer, infrastructure and financial segments. Also, approaches were provided on company’s differentiation and competitive advantages evaluation. It is assumed that search marketers should apply further attempts to differentiate own business out of the large number of similar service providing companies. Findings indicate that SEM companies are interested in the increasing their trustworthiness and the reputation building. Future of the search marketing is directly depending on search engines development.

Simulation and optimization tools in paper machine concept design

The last decade has shown that the global paper industry needs new processes and products in order to reassert its position in the industry. As the paper markets in Western Europe and North America have stabilized, the competition has tightened. Along with the development of more cost-effective processes and products, new process design methods are also required to break the old molds and create new ideas. This thesis discusses the development of a process design methodology based on simulation and optimization methods. A bi-level optimization problem and a solution procedure for it are formulated and illustrated. Computational models and simulation are used to illustrate the phenomena inside a real process and mathematical optimization is exploited to find out the best process structures and control principles for the process. Dynamic process models are used inside the bi-level optimization problem, which is assumed to be dynamic and multiobjective due to the nature of papermaking processes. The numerical experiments show that the bi-level optimization approach is useful for different kinds of problems related to process design and optimization. Here, the design methodology is applied to a constrained process area of a papermaking line. However, the same methodology is applicable to all types of industrial processes, e.g., the design of biorefiners, because the methodology is totally generalized and can be easily modified.

Dynamic Ownership in Family Business System – A Portfolio Business Approach

Family businesses are among the longest-lived most prevalent institutions in the world and they are an important source of economic development and growth. Ownership is a key to the business life of the firm and also one main key in family business definition. There is only a little portfolio entrepreneurship or portfolio business research within family business context. The absence of empirical evidence on the long-term relationship between family ownership and portfolio development presents an important gap in the family business literature. This study deals with the family business ownership changes and the development of portfolios in the family business and it is positioned in to the conversation of family business, growth, ownership, management and strategy. This study contributes and expands the existing body of theory on family business and ownership. From the theoretical point of view this study combines insights from the fields of portfolio entrepreneurship, ownership, and family business and integrate them. This crossfertilization produces interesting empirical and theoretical findings that can constitute a basis for solid contributions to the understanding of ownership dynamics and portfolio entrepreneurship in family firms. The research strategy chosen for this study represents longitudinal, qualitative, hermeneutic, and deductive approaches.The empirical part of study is using a case study approach with embedded design, that is, multiple levels of analysis within a single study. The study consists of two cases and it begins with a pilot case which will form a preunderstanding on the phenomenon. Pilot case develops the methodology approach to build in the main case and the main case will deepen the understanding of the phenomenon. This study develops and tests a research method of family business portfolio development focusing on investigating how ownership changes are influencing to the family business structures over time. This study reveals the linkages between dimensions of ownership and how they give rise to portfolio business development within the context of the family business. The empirical results of the study suggest that family business ownership is dynamic and owners are using ownership as a tool for creating business portfolios.

Innovation Project Portfolio Management

Companies today are forced to innovate in order to remain within business. Such innovation projects undertaken by the companies are defined in this study as creative ideas which have been managed through “Stage-Gate” innovation process. This process is used to manage innovation projects as they proceed from being newly created to ready for launching/implementing. This has ensured that the companies manage the innovation project right. However, with so many new creative ideas the companies can come up within limited resources, the companies must rely on Innovation Project Portfolio Management (IPPM) to ensure that they are managing only the right innovation projects. Although, there are many tools and techniques available for use within Project Portfolio Management, there is still no consensus on which are the most effective and no standard framework has been established especially for IPPM. Thus, this study proposes a practical framework for which individual innovative organization can follow as a guideline to manage its innovation project portfolio. The study theoretically first addresses the key differences between project portfolio management of innovation projects and other traditional projects - one of which is the stage nature of innovation projects due to their unclear objectives from the beginning compare to clearly established objectives of traditional projects. Secondly, different tools and techniques which can be used are examined based on the three goals of IPPM: (1) Maximizing the Value of Innovation Project Portfolio: Financial Methods, Decision Trees, Scoring Models and Checklists; (2) Balancing Innovation Project Portfolio: Visual Representations; and (3) Aligning Innovation Project Portfolio with Strategy: Bottom-Up (Scoring Models with Strategic Criteria) and Top-Down (Strategic Buckets). Finally, the two approaches in which IPPM can be integrated with Stage-Gate innovation process are discussed: (1) Gates- Dominated; and (2) Portfolio Reviews-Dominated. Practically, this study investigates IPPM of a case organization, and through analysis of the case study results proposes a practical framework for case organization to improve its current management of innovation project portfolio. This framework is then generalized to propose a final practical framework or guideline for which an innovative organization can follow to manage its innovation project portfolio.

IT Investment Portfolio Management Over Joint Ventures: Case Study in a Multinational Oil & Gas Company

With information technology (IT) playing an increasing important role in driving the business, the value of IT investment is often challenged because not all of those investment decisions are made in a reasonable way or aligned with business strategies. IT investment portfolio management (PfM) is an effective way to prioritize and select the right IT projects to invest in, by taking all the project proposals into consideration as a whole, based on their business value, risks, costs, and interrelationships. There are different decision models to prioritise projects, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is one of the most commonly-used methods and is discussed in this master thesis. At the same time, there are IT projects on different levels for a multinational company, from global to local. For instance, many of them are probably proposed by joint ventures on local level. In the oil & gas industry, joint ventures are often formed especially in the area of the upstream (exploration & production). How to involve those projects into the IT investment PfM approach of the parent company is a challenge, because the parent company cannot make the decisions on its own. It needs to prioritize all projects in an adequate way, communicate with JVs and influence them. Also, different control levels on JVs need to be considered. This paper hence attempts to introduce a tailored approach of IT investment PfM for a multinational oil & gas company to address the issues around JVs.

Automatic system identification and optimization of centrifugal pump operation

Centrifugal pumps are a notable end-consumer of electrical energy. Typical application of a centrifugal pump is the filling or emptying of a reservoir tank, where the pump is often operated at a constant speed until the process is completed. Installing a frequency converter to control the motor substitutes the traditional fixed-speed pumping system, allows the optimization of rotational speed profile for the pumping tasks and enables the estimation of rotational speed and shaft torque of an induction motor without any additional measurements from the motor shaft. Utilization of variable-speed operation provides the possibility to decrease the overall energy consumption of the pumping task. The static head of the pumping process may change during the pumping task. In such systems, the minimum rotational speed changes during reservoir filling or emptying, and the minimum energy consumption can’t be achieved with a fixed rotational speed. This thesis presents embedded algorithms to automatically identify, optimize and monitor pumping processes between supply and destination reservoirs, and evaluates the changing static head –based optimization method.

Key success factors and process for IT project portfolio management

The importance of Information Technology (IT) in the business environment is continuously growing. This stimulates the increase of size, complexity and number of IT projects and raises the need for IT Project Portfolio Management (IT PPM). While being actively discussed for the last few decades, IT PPM has a short history of practical implementation. This creates inconsistency in the views of different authors and provides an opportunity for additional research. As a first step, this research explores the existing studies and brings together the views of different authors on IT PPM. As a result, a high-level IT PPM Process Cycle and a set of Key Success Factors for IT PPM are proposed. IT PPM Process Cycle gives an overview of the main elements of IT PPM process, while the set of Key Success Factors provides a number of factors that should be considered during the implementation. As a second step, both theoretical deliverables are empirically tested by a case study and a survey conducted in a big multinational company. The case study is used to analyze process framework of the studied company towards the developed IT PPM Process Cycle. Subsequently, a survey was conducted among subject matter experts of the same company to evaluate the importance and relevance of the proposed Key Success Factors. Finally, this thesis concludes with findings made during the case study and provides an empirically tested selection of factors to be taken into account. These two deliverables can be used by both academics and practitioners to close the gaps in existing literature and assist in IT PPM implementation.