The estimation of tuberculosis transmission parameters using ABC and MCMC methods

The aim of this work is to apply approximate Bayesian computation in combination with Marcov chain Monte Carlo methods in order to estimate the parameters of tuberculosis transmission. The methods are applied to San Francisco data and the results are compared with the outcomes of previous works. Moreover, a methodological idea with the aim to reduce computational time is also described. Despite the fact that this approach is proved to work in an appropriate way, further analysis is needed to understand and test its behaviour in different cases. Some related suggestions to its further enhancement are described in the corresponding chapter.

K-liitoksen epäkeskeisen tuennan aiheuttaman sekundäärisen momentin määritys

Työssä on tutkittu laboratoriokokeen ja elementtimenetelmän avulla eri geometrioiden vaikutusta sekundääriseen momentin syntymiseen K-liitoksella. Kokeen liitos on tehty S700-lujuusluokan Ruukin Optim 700 plus MH nelikulmaisista rakenneputkista (RHS). Elementtimalleissa on käytetty geometrista ja materiaalista epälineaarisuutta ennustamaan liitoksen muodonmuutoskykyä ja laskennallista kestävyyttä. Liitoksen elementtimalleissa muutettavia geometrioita ovat: vapaaväli, uumasauvan ja paarteen välinen kulma, paarteen seinämän paksuus, liitoksen eksentrisyys ja uumasauvan ja paarteen leveyden suhde. Laboratoriokokeen liitoksen vetouumasauvassa vaikuttava sekundäärisen momentin aiheuttama jännitys on noin 25 % vetouumasauvan myötörajasta. Suurin sekundäärinen momentti syntyy, kun vapaaväliä pienennetään ja uumasauvaa kavennetaan paarteeseen nähden. Eurocode 3:n mitoitusohjeita voidaan elementtimallien perusteella soveltaa tietyille geometrioille turvallisesti.

Mathematical modeling and optimal control of malaria

Malaria continues to infect millions and kill hundreds of thousands of people worldwide each year, despite over a century of research and attempts to control and eliminate this infectious disease. Challenges such as the development and spread of drug resistant malaria parasites, insecticide resistance to mosquitoes, climate change, the presence of individuals with subpatent malaria infections which normally are asymptomatic and behavioral plasticity in the mosquito hinder the prospects of malaria control and elimination. In this thesis, mathematical models of malaria transmission and control that address the role of drug resistance, immunity, iron supplementation and anemia, immigration and visitation, and the presence of asymptomatic carriers in malaria transmission are developed. A within-host mathematical model of severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria is also developed. First, a deterministic mathematical model for transmission of antimalarial drug resistance parasites with superinfection is developed and analyzed. The possibility of increase in the risk of superinfection due to iron supplementation and fortification in malaria endemic areas is discussed. The model results calls upon stakeholders to weigh the pros and cons of iron supplementation to individuals living in malaria endemic regions. Second, a deterministic model of transmission of drug resistant malaria parasites, including the inflow of infective immigrants, is presented and analyzed. The optimal control theory is applied to this model to study the impact of various malaria and vector control strategies, such as screening of immigrants, treatment of drug-sensitive infections, treatment of drug-resistant infections, and the use of insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor spraying of mosquitoes. The results of the model emphasize the importance of using a combination of all four controls tools for effective malaria intervention. Next, a two-age-class mathematical model for malaria transmission with asymptomatic carriers is developed and analyzed. In development of this model, four possible control measures are analyzed: the use of long-lasting treated mosquito nets, indoor residual spraying, screening and treatment of symptomatic, and screening and treatment of asymptomatic individuals. The numerical results show that a disease-free equilibrium can be attained if all four control measures are used. A common pitfall for most epidemiological models is the absence of real data; model-based conclusions have to be drawn based on uncertain parameter values. In this thesis, an approach to study the robustness of optimal control solutions under such parameter uncertainty is presented. Numerical analysis of the optimal control problem in the presence of parameter uncertainty demonstrate the robustness of the optimal control approach that: when a comprehensive control strategy is used the main conclusions of the optimal control remain unchanged, even if inevitable variability remains in the control profiles. The results provide a promising framework for the design of cost-effective strategies for disease control with multiple interventions, even under considerable uncertainty of model parameters. Finally, a separate work modeling the within-host Plasmodium falciparum infection in humans is presented. The developed model allows re-infection of already-infected red blood cells. The model hypothesizes that in severe malaria due to parasite quest for survival and rapid multiplication, the Plasmodium falciparum can be absorbed in the already-infected red blood cells which accelerates the rupture rate and consequently cause anemia. Analysis of the model and parameter identifiability using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods is presented.

Lightweight, liquid-cooled, direct-drive generator for highpower wind turbines: motivation, concept, and performance

Thesis: A liquid-cooled, direct-drive, permanent-magnet, synchronous generator with helical, double-layer, non-overlapping windings formed from a copper conductor with a coaxial internal coolant conduit offers an excellent combination of attributes to reliably provide economic wind power for the coming generation of wind turbines with power ratings between 5 and 20MW. A generator based on the liquid-cooled architecture proposed here will be reliable and cost effective. Its smaller size and mass will reduce build, transport, and installation costs. Summary: Converting wind energy into electricity and transmitting it to an electrical power grid to supply consumers is a relatively new and rapidly developing method of electricity generation. In the most recent decade, the increase in wind energy’s share of overall energy production has been remarkable. Thousands of land-based and offshore wind turbines have been commissioned around the globe, and thousands more are being planned. The technologies have evolved rapidly and are continuing to evolve, and wind turbine sizes and power ratings are continually increasing. Many of the newer wind turbine designs feature drivetrains based on Direct-Drive, Permanent-Magnet, Synchronous Generators (DD-PMSGs). Being low-speed high-torque machines, the diameters of air-cooled DD-PMSGs become very large to generate higher levels of power. The largest direct-drive wind turbine generator in operation today, rated just below 8MW, is 12m in diameter and approximately 220 tonne. To generate higher powers, traditional DD-PMSGs would need to become extraordinarily large. A 15MW air-cooled direct-drive generator would be of colossal size and tremendous mass and no longer economically viable. One alternative to increasing diameter is instead to increase torque density. In a permanent magnet machine, this is best done by increasing the linear current density of the stator windings. However, greater linear current density results in more Joule heating, and the additional heat cannot be removed practically using a traditional air-cooling approach. Direct liquid cooling is more effective, and when applied directly to the stator windings, higher linear current densities can be sustained leading to substantial increases in torque density. The higher torque density, in turn, makes possible significant reductions in DD-PMSG size. Over the past five years, a multidisciplinary team of researchers has applied a holistic approach to explore the application of liquid cooling to permanent-magnet wind turbine generator design. The approach has considered wind energy markets and the economics of wind power, system reliability, electromagnetic behaviors and design, thermal design and performance, mechanical architecture and behaviors, and the performance modeling of installed wind turbines. This dissertation is based on seven publications that chronicle the work. The primary outcomes are the proposal of a novel generator architecture, a multidisciplinary set of analyses to predict the behaviors, and experimentation to demonstrate some of the key principles and validate the analyses. The proposed generator concept is a direct-drive, surface-magnet, synchronous generator with fractional-slot, duplex-helical, double-layer, non-overlapping windings formed from a copper conductor with a coaxial internal coolant conduit to accommodate liquid coolant flow. The novel liquid-cooling architecture is referred to as LC DD-PMSG. The first of the seven publications summarized in this dissertation discusses the technological and economic benefits and limitations of DD-PMSGs as applied to wind energy. The second publication addresses the long-term reliability of the proposed LC DD-PMSG design. Publication 3 examines the machine’s electromagnetic design, and Publication 4 introduces an optimization tool developed to quickly define basic machine parameters. The static and harmonic behaviors of the stator and rotor wheel structures are the subject of Publication 5. And finally, Publications 6 and 7 examine steady-state and transient thermal behaviors. There have been a number of ancillary concrete outcomes associated with the work including the following. X Intellectual Property (IP) for direct liquid cooling of stator windings via an embedded coaxial coolant conduit, IP for a lightweight wheel structure for lowspeed, high-torque electrical machinery, and IP for numerous other details of the LC DD-PMSG design X Analytical demonstrations of the equivalent reliability of the LC DD-PMSG; validated electromagnetic, thermal, structural, and dynamic prediction models; and an analytical demonstration of the superior partial load efficiency and annual energy output of an LC DD-PMSG design X A set of LC DD-PMSG design guidelines and an analytical tool to establish optimal geometries quickly and early on X Proposed 8 MW LC DD-PMSG concepts for both inner and outer rotor configurations Furthermore, three technologies introduced could be relevant across a broader spectrum of applications. 1) The cost optimization methodology developed as part of this work could be further improved to produce a simple tool to establish base geometries for various electromagnetic machine types. 2) The layered sheet-steel element construction technology used for the LC DD-PMSG stator and rotor wheel structures has potential for a wide range of applications. And finally, 3) the direct liquid-cooling technology could be beneficial in higher speed electromotive applications such as vehicular electric drives.

The effect of focal point parameters in fiber laser welding of structural steel

In this thesis the effect of focal point parameters in fiber laser welding of structural steel is studied. The goal is to establish relations between laser power, focal point diameter and focal point position with the resulting quality, weld-bead geometry and hardness of the welds. In the laboratory experiments, AB AH36 shipbuilding steel was welded in an I-butt joint configuration using IPG YLS-10000 continuous wave fiber laser. The quality of the welds produced were evaluated based on standard SFS-EN ISO 13919-1. The weld-bead geometry was defined from the weld cross-sections and Vickers hardness test was used to measure hardness's from the middle of the cross-sections. It was shown that all the studied focal point parameters have an effect on the quality, weld-bead geometry and hardness of the welds produced.

Analysing the power consumption behaviour of Ethernet switch using Design of Experiment

At present, one of the main concerns of green network is to minimize the power consumption of network infrastructure. Surveys show that, the highest amount of power is consumed by the network devices during its runtime. However to control this power consumption it is important to know which factors has highest impact on this matter. This paper is focused on the measurement and modeling the power consumption of an Ethernet switch during its runtime considering various types of input parameters with all possible combinations. For the experiment, three input parameters are chosen. They are bandwidth, link load and number of connections. The output to be measured is the power consumption of the Ethernet switch. Due to the uncertain power consuming pattern of the Ethernet switch a fully-comprehensive experimental evaluation would require an unfeasible and cumbersome experimental phase. Because of that, design of experiment (DoE) method has been applied to obtain adequate information on the effects of each input parameters on the power consumption. The whole work consists of three parts. In the first part a test bed is planned with input parameters and the power consumption of the switch is measured. The second part is about generating a mathematical model with the help of design of experiment tools. This model can be used for measuring precise power consumption in different scenario and also pinpoint the parameters with higher influence in power consumption. And in the last part, the mathematical model is evaluated by comparing with the experimental values.

Modeling Energy Futures Returns With Markov Regime Switching Model

Financial time series have a tendency of abruptly changing their behavior and maintain this behavior for several consecutive periods, and commodity futures returns are not an exception. This quality proposes that nonlinear models, as opposed to linear models, can more accurately describe returns and volatility. Markov regime switching models are able to match this behavior and have become a popular way to model financial time series. This study uses Markov regime switching model to describe the behavior of energy futures returns on a commodity level, because studies show that commodity futures are a heterogeneous asset class. The purpose of this thesis is twofold. First, determine how many regimes characterize individual energy commodities’ returns in different return frequencies. Second, study the characteristics of these regimes. We extent the previous studies on the subject in two ways: We allow for the possibility that the number of regimes may exceed two, as well as conduct the research on individual commodities rather than on commodity indices or subgroups of these indices. We use daily, weekly and monthly time series of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, natural gas, heating oil and gasoil futures returns over 1994–2014, where available, to carry out the study. We apply the likelihood ratio test to determine the sufficient number of regimes for each commodity and data frequency. Then the time series are modeled with Markov regime switching model to obtain the return distribution characteristics of each regime, as well as the transition probabilities of moving between regimes. The results for the number of regimes suggest that daily energy futures return series consist of three to six regimes, whereas weekly and monthly returns for all energy commodities display only two regimes. When the number of regimes exceeds two, there is a tendency for the time series of energy commodities to form groups of regimes. These groups are usually quite persistent as a whole because probability of a regime switch inside the group is high. However, individual regimes in these groups are not persistent and the process oscillates between these regimes frequently. Regimes that are not part of any group are generally persistent, but show low ergodic probability, i.e. rarely prevail in the market. This study also suggests that energy futures return series characterized with two regimes do not necessarily display persistent bull and bear regimes. In fact, for the majority of time series, bearish regime is considerably less persistent. Rahoituksen aikasarjoilla on taipumus arvaamattomasti muuttaa käyttäytymistään ja jatkaa tätä uutta käyttäytymistä useiden periodien ajan, eivätkä hyödykefutuurien tuotot tee tähän poikkeusta. Tämän ominaisuuden johdosta lineaaristen mallien sijasta epälineaariset mallit pystyvät tarkemmin kuvailemaan esimerkiksi tuottojen jakauman parametreja. Markov regiiminvaihtomallit pystyvät vangitsemaan tämän ominaisuuden ja siksi niistä on tullut suosittuja rahoituksen aikasarjojen mallintamisessa. Tämä tutkimus käyttää Markov regiiminvaihtomallia kuvaamaan yksittäisten energiafutuurien tuottojen käyttäytymistä, sillä tutkimukset osoittavat hyödykefutuurien olevan hyvin heterogeeninen omaisuusluokka. Tutkimuksen tarkoitus on selvittää, kuinka monta regiimiä tarvitaan kuvaamaan energiafutuurien tuottoja eri tuottofrekvensseillä ja mitkä ovat näiden regiimien ominaisuudet. Aiempaa tutkimusta aiheesta laajennetaan määrittämällä regiimien lukumäärä tilastotieteellisen testauksen menetelmin sekä tutkimalla energiafutuureja yksittäin; ei indeksi- tai alaindeksitasolla. Tutkimuksessa käytetään päivä-, viikko- ja kuukausiaikasarjoja Brent-raakaöljyn, WTI-raakaöljyn, maakaasun, lämmitysöljyn ja polttoöljyn tuotoista aikaväliltä 1994–2014, siltä osin kuin aineistoa on saatavilla. Likelihood ratio -testin avulla estimoidaan kaikille aikasarjoille regiimien määrä,jonka jälkeen Markov regiiminvaihtomallia hyödyntäen määritetään yksittäisten regiimientuottojakaumien ominaisuudet sekä regiimien välinen transitiomatriisi. Tulokset regiimien lukumäärän osalta osoittavat, että energiafutuurien päiväkohtaisten tuottojen aikasarjoissa regiimien lukumäärä vaihtelee kolmen ja kuuden välillä. Viikko- ja kuukausituottojen kohdalla kaikkien energiafutuurien prosesseissa regiimien lukumäärä on kaksi. Kun regiimejä on enemmän kuin kaksi, on prosessilla taipumus muodostaa regiimeistä koostuvia ryhmiä. Prosessi pysyy ryhmän sisällä yleensä pitkään, koska todennäköisyys siirtyä ryhmään kuuluvien regiimien välillä on suuri. Yksittäiset regiimit ryhmän sisällä eivät kuitenkaan ole kovin pysyviä. Näin ollen prosessi vaihtelee ryhmän sisäisten regiimien välillä tiuhaan. Regiimit, jotka eivät kuulu ryhmään, ovat yleensä pysyviä, mutta prosessi ajautuu niihin vain harvoin, sillä todennäköisyys siirtyä muista regiimeistä niihin on pieni. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat myös, että prosesseissa, joita ohjaa kaksi regiimiä, nämä regiimit eivät välttämättä ole pysyvät bull- ja bear-markkinatilanteet. Tulokset osoittavat sen sijaan, että bear-markkinatilanne on energiafutuureissa selvästi vähemmän pysyvä.

Ultralujan teräksen kaarijuotto

Tässä diplomityössä tutkitaan ultralujan rakenneteräksen kaarijuotolla valmistettujen liitosten väsymiskestävyyttä. Tutkittavat liitokset ovat kuormaa kantamattomia X-liitoksia. Tutkinnassa vertaillaan puhtaasti juottamalla valmistettua liitosta hitsauksen ja juoton kombinaatioliitokseen, jossa pohjapalkona toimivan hitsin rajaviivalle on juotettu lisäpalko. Kaarijuottoa esitellään yleisesti liittämismenetelmänä. Ultralujaa rakenneterästä esitellään yleisesti ja tarkastellaan sen metallurgista käyttäytymistä sekä juotettaessa, että hitsattaessa. Tutkimuksessa tehtiin kaikkiaan 21 väsytystestiä. Väsytystestit muodostuivat kolmesta eri koekappalesarjasta. Ensimmäisen ja toisen sarjan koekappaleet tehtiin juottamalla, eri lisäaineilla. 3. sarjassa pienat hitsattiin, jonka jälkeen hitsin rajaviivalle tehtiin juotto. Kappaleiden geometriat mitattiin ennen testejä, ja osasta kappaleista mitattiin jäännösjännitykset. Kappaleista otettiin hieitä, joista tehtiin kovuusmittaukset ja suoritettiin makro- ja mikrotason tarkastelua liitosprosessin lämmöntuonnin vaikutuksesta. Väsytyskokeiden perusteella kappaleille määritettiin nimelliset ja rakenteelliset väsymisluokat. Tuloksista piirrettiin S-N –käyrät. Liitoksista tehtiin FEA-mallit, joista määritettiin liitoksen rajaviivalle muodostuva jännitys ja 2. sarjan koekappaleiden laskennalliset kestoiät. 1. sarjan juotoksissa oli ongelmana juotoksen tarttuvuus teräksen pintaan. 2. sarjan koetulokset olivat kaikkein parhaita. 3. sarjan kombinaatioliitokset ylsivät kohtalaisiin väsymisluokkiin. 2. sarjan koetulosten perusteella kaarijuotossa on potentiaalia ultralujan rakenneteräksen liittämismenetelmänä. Jatkotutkimuksen tarve on kuitenkin laaja. Tämä työ osoitti, että kaarijuottaminen voi olla vaativa liittämisprosessi, sillä toimiakseen se vaatii varsin tarkat parametrit, ja lisäksi prosessi on melko herkkä olosuhdemuutoksille.