Forecasting of wind speeds and directions with artificial neural networks

In this master’s thesis, wind speeds and directions were modeled with the aim of developing suitable models for hourly, daily, weekly and monthly forecasting. Artificial Neural Networks implemented in MATLAB software were used to perform the forecasts. Three main types of artificial neural network were built, namely: Feed forward neural networks, Jordan Elman neural networks and Cascade forward neural networks. Four sub models of each of these neural networks were also built, corresponding to the four forecast horizons, for both wind speeds and directions. A single neural network topology was used for each of the forecast horizons, regardless of the model type. All the models were then trained with real data of wind speeds and directions collected over a period of two years in the municipal region of Puumala in Finland. Only 70% of the data was used for training, validation and testing of the models, while the second last 15% of the data was presented to the trained models for verification. The model outputs were then compared to the last 15% of the original data, by measuring the mean square errors and sum square errors between them. Based on the results, the feed forward networks returned the lowest generalization errors for hourly, weekly and monthly forecasts of wind speeds; Jordan Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for forecasting of daily wind speeds. Cascade forward networks gave the lowest errors when used for forecasting daily, weekly and monthly wind directions; Jordan Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for hourly forecasting. The errors were relatively low during training of the models, but shot up upon simulation with new inputs. In addition, a combination of hyperbolic tangent transfer functions for both hidden and output layers returned better results compared to other combinations of transfer functions. In general, wind speeds were more predictable as compared to wind directions, opening up opportunities for further research into building better models for wind direction forecasting.

Aligning Regional Repository Networks

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Influence of reactant absorption and dissolution in heterogeneous precipitation processes

In this research work, the aim was to investigate the volumetric mass transfer coefficient [kLa] of oxygen in stirred tank in the presence of solid particle experimentally. The kLa correlations as a function of propeller rotation speed and flow rate of gas feed were studied. The O2 and CO2 absorption in water and in solid-liquid suspensions and heterogeneous precipitation of MgCO3 were thoroughly examined. The absorption experiments of oxygen were conducted in various systems like pure water and in aqueous suspensions of quartz and calcium carbonate particles. Secondly, the precipitation kinetics of magnesium carbonate was also investigated. The experiments were performed to study the reactive crystallization with magnesium hydroxide slurry and carbon dioxide gas by varying the feed rates of carbon dioxide and rotation speeds of mixer. The results of absorption and precipitation are evaluated by titration, total carbon (TC analysis), and ionic chromatrography (IC). For calcium carbonate, the particle concentration was varied from 17.4 g to 2382 g with two size fractions: 5 µm and 45-63 µm sieves. The kLa and P/V values of 17.4 g CaCO3 with particle size of 5µm and 45-63 µm were 0.016 s-1 and 2400 W/m3. At 69.9 g concentration of CaCO3, the achieved kLa is 0.014 s-1 with particle size of 5 µm and 0.017 s-1 with particle size of 45 to 63 µm. Further increase in concentration of calcium carbonate, i.e. 870g and 2382g , does not affect volumetric mass transfer coeffienct of oxygen. It could be concluded from absorption results that maximum value of kLa is 0.016 s-1. Also particle size and concentration does affect the transfer rate to some extend. For precipitation experiments, the constant concentration of Mg(OH)2 was 100 g and the rotation speed varied from 560 to 750 rpm, whereas the used feed rates of CO2 were 1 and 9 L/min. At 560 rpm and feed rate of CO2 is 1 L/min, the maximum value of Mg ion and TC were 0.25 mol/litre and 0.12 mol/litre with the residence time of 40 min. When flow rate of CO2 increased to 9 L/min with same 560 rpm, the achieved value of Mg and TC were 0.3 mol/litre and 0.12 mol/L with shorter residence time of 30 min. It is concluded that feed rate of CO2 is dominant in precipitation experiments and it has a key role in dissociation and reaction of magnesium hydroxide in precipitation of magnesium carbonate.

From emerging opportunities to successful business networks – evidence from bioenergy

Increasing renewable energy utilization is a challenge that is tried to be solved in different ways. One of the most promising options for renewable energy is different biomasses, and the bioenergy field offers numerous emerging business opportunities. The actors in the field have rarely all the needed know-how and resources for exploiting these opportunities, and thus it is reasonable to seize them in cooperation. Networking is not an easy task to carry out, however, and in addition to its advantages for the firms engaged, it sets numerous challenges as well. The development of a network is a result of several steps firms need to take. In order to gain optimal advantage of their networks, firms need to weigh out with whom, why and how they should cooperate. In addition, everything does not depend on the firms themselves, as several factors in the external environment set their own enablers and barriers for cooperation. The formation of a network around a business opportunity is thus a multiphase process. The objective of this thesis is to depict this process via a step-by-step analysis and thus increase understanding on the whole development path from an entrepreneurial opportunity to a successful business network. The empirical evidence has been gathered by discussing the opportunities of animal manure refinement to biogas and forest biomass utilization for heating in Finland. The thesis comprises two parts. The first part provides an overview of the study, and the second part includes five research publications. The results reveal that it is essential to identify and analyze all the steps in the development process of a network, and several frameworks are used in the thesis to analyze these steps. The frameworks combine the views of theory and practical experiences of empirical study, and thus give new multifaceted views for the discussion on SME networking. The results indicate that the ground for cooperation should be investigated adequately by taking account of the preconditions in all the three contexts in which the actors operate: the social context, the region and the institutional environment. In case the project advances to exploitation, the assets and objectives of the actors should be paired off, which sets a need for relationships and sub-networks differing in breadth and depth. Different relationships and networks require different kinds of maintenance and management. Moreover, the actors should have the capability to change the formality or strategy of the relationships if needed. The drivers for these changes come along with the changing environment, which causes changes in the objectives of the actors and this way in the whole network. Bioenergy as the empirical field of the study represents well an industrial field with many emerging opportunities, a motley group of actors, and sensitivity for fast changes.

Heterogeneous mass transfer in fluidized beds by computational fluid dynamics

The main objective of this research is to estimate and characterize heterogeneous mass transfer coefficients in bench- and pilot-scale fluidized bed processes by the means of computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A further objective is to benchmark the heterogeneous mass transfer coefficients predicted by fine-grid Eulerian CFD simulations against empirical data presented in the scientific literature. First, a fine-grid two-dimensional Eulerian CFD model with a solid and gas phase has been designed. The model is applied for transient two-dimensional simulations of char combustion in small-scale bubbling and turbulent fluidized beds. The same approach is used to simulate a novel fluidized bed energy conversion process developed for the carbon capture, chemical looping combustion operated with a gaseous fuel. In order to analyze the results of the CFD simulations, two one-dimensional fluidized bed models have been formulated. The single-phase and bubble-emulsion models were applied to derive the average gas-bed and interphase mass transfer coefficients, respectively. In the analysis, the effects of various fluidized bed operation parameters, such as fluidization, velocity, particle and bubble diameter, reactor size, and chemical kinetics, on the heterogeneous mass transfer coefficients in the lower fluidized bed are evaluated extensively. The analysis shows that the fine-grid Eulerian CFD model can predict the heterogeneous mass transfer coefficients quantitatively with acceptable accuracy. Qualitatively, the CFD-based research of fluidized bed process revealed several new scientific results, such as parametrical relationships. The huge variance of seven orders of magnitude within the bed Sherwood numbers presented in the literature could be explained by the change of controlling mechanisms in the overall heterogeneous mass transfer process with the varied process conditions. The research opens new process-specific insights into the reactive fluidized bed processes, such as a strong mass transfer control over heterogeneous reaction rate, a dominance of interphase mass transfer in the fine-particle fluidized beds and a strong chemical kinetic dependence of the average gas-bed mass transfer. The obtained mass transfer coefficients can be applied in fluidized bed models used for various engineering design, reactor scale-up and process research tasks, and they consequently provide an enhanced prediction accuracy of the performance of fluidized bed processes.

α-Pinene oxide and verbenol oxide isomerizations over heterogeneous catalysts

Terpenes are a valuable natural resource for the production of fine chemicals. Turpentine, obtained from biomass and also as a side product of softwood industry, is rich in monoterpenes such as α-pinene and β-pinene, which are widely used as raw materials in the synthesis of flavors, fragrances and pharmaceutical compounds. The rearrangement of their epoxides has been thoroughly studied in recent years, as a method to obtain compounds which are further used in the fine chemical industry. The industrially most desired products of α-pinene oxide isomerization are campholenic aldehyde and trans-carveol. Campholenic aldehyde is an intermediate for the manufacture of sandalwood-like fragrances such as santalol. Trans-carveol is an expensive constituent of the Valencia orange essence oil used in perfume bases and food flavor composition. Furthermore it has been found to exhibit chemoprevention of mammary carcinogenesis. A wide range of iron and ceria supported catalysts were prepared, characterized and tested for α-pinene oxide isomerization in order to selective synthesis of above mentioned products. The highest catalytic activity in the preparation of campholenic aldehyde over iron modified catalysts using toluene as a solvent at 70 °C (total conversion of α-pinene oxide with a selectivity of 66 % to the desired aldehyde) was achieved in the presence of Fe-MCM-41. Furthermore, Fe-MCM-41 catalyst was successfully regenerated without deterioration of catalytic activity and selectivity. The most active catalysts in the synthesis of trans-carveol from α-pinene oxide over iron and ceria modified catalysts in N,N-dimethylacetamide as a solvent at 140 °C (total conversion of α-pinene oxide with selectivity 43 % to trans-carveol) were Fe-Beta-300 and Ce-Si-MCM-41. These catalysts were further tested for an analogous reaction, namely verbenol oxide isomerization. Verbenone is another natural organic compound which can be found in a variety of plants or synthesized by allylic oxidation of α-pinene. An interesting product which is synthesized from verbenone is (1R,2R,6S)-3-methyl-6-(prop-1-en-2-yl)cyclohex-3-ene-1,2-diol. It has been discovered that this diol possesses potent anti-Parkinson activity. The most effective way leading to desired diol starts from verbenone and includes three stages: epoxidation of verbenone to verbenone oxide, reduction of verbenone oxide and subsequent isomerization of obtained verbenol oxide, which is analogous to isomerization of α-pinene oxide. In the research focused on the last step of these synthesis, high selectivity (82 %) to desired diol was achieved in the isomerization of verbenol oxide at a conversion level of 96 % in N,N-dimethylacetamide at 140 °C using iron modified zeolite, Fe-Beta-300. This reaction displayed surprisingly high selectivity, which has not been achieved yet. The possibility of the reuse of heterogeneous catalysts without activity loss was demonstrated.

Value of Information Logistics Integration in Digital Business Ecosystem

Digital business ecosystems (DBE) are becoming an increasingly popular concept for modelling and building distributed systems in heterogeneous, decentralized and open environments. Information- and communication technology (ICT) enabled business solutions have created an opportunity for automated business relations and transactions. The deployment of ICT in business-to-business (B2B) integration seeks to improve competitiveness by establishing real-time information and offering better information visibility to business ecosystem actors. The products, components and raw material flows in supply chains are traditionally studied in logistics research. In this study, we expand the research to cover the processes parallel to the service and information flows as information logistics integration. In this thesis, we show how better integration and automation of information flows enhance the speed of processes and, thus, provide cost savings and other benefits for organizations. Investments in DBE are intended to add value through business automation and are key decisions in building up information logistics integration. Business solutions that build on automation are important sources of value in networks that promote and support business relations and transactions. Value is created through improved productivity and effectiveness when new, more efficient collaboration methods are discovered and integrated into DBE. Organizations, business networks and collaborations, even with competitors, form DBE in which information logistics integration has a significant role as a value driver. However, traditional economic and computing theories do not focus on digital business ecosystems as a separate form of organization, and they do not provide conceptual frameworks that can be used to explore digital business ecosystems as value drivers—combined internal management and external coordination mechanisms for information logistics integration are not the current practice of a company’s strategic process. In this thesis, we have developed and tested a framework to explore the digital business ecosystems developed and a coordination model for digital business ecosystem integration; moreover, we have analysed the value of information logistics integration. The research is based on a case study and on mixed methods, in which we use the Delphi method and Internetbased tools for idea generation and development. We conducted many interviews with key experts, which we recoded, transcribed and coded to find success factors. Qualitative analyses were based on a Monte Carlo simulation, which sought cost savings, and Real Option Valuation, which sought an optimal investment program for the ecosystem level. This study provides valuable knowledge regarding information logistics integration by utilizing a suitable business process information model for collaboration. An information model is based on the business process scenarios and on detailed transactions for the mapping and automation of product, service and information flows. The research results illustrate the current cap of understanding information logistics integration in a digital business ecosystem. Based on success factors, we were able to illustrate how specific coordination mechanisms related to network management and orchestration could be designed. We also pointed out the potential of information logistics integration in value creation. With the help of global standardization experts, we utilized the design of the core information model for B2B integration. We built this quantitative analysis by using the Monte Carlo-based simulation model and the Real Option Value model. This research covers relevant new research disciplines, such as information logistics integration and digital business ecosystems, in which the current literature needs to be improved. This research was executed by high-level experts and managers responsible for global business network B2B integration. However, the research was dominated by one industry domain, and therefore a more comprehensive exploration should be undertaken to cover a larger population of business sectors. Based on this research, the new quantitative survey could provide new possibilities to examine information logistics integration in digital business ecosystems. The value activities indicate that further studies should continue, especially with regard to the collaboration issues on integration, focusing on a user-centric approach. We should better understand how real-time information supports customer value creation by imbedding the information into the lifetime value of products and services. The aim of this research was to build competitive advantage through B2B integration to support a real-time economy. For practitioners, this research created several tools and concepts to improve value activities, information logistics integration design and management and orchestration models. Based on the results, the companies were able to better understand the formulation of the digital business ecosystem and the importance of joint efforts in collaboration. However, the challenge of incorporating this new knowledge into strategic processes in a multi-stakeholder environment remains. This challenge has been noted, and new projects have been established in pursuit of a real-time economy.

Strategic management of value networks: how to create value in cross-sector collaboration and partnerships

Cross-sector collaboration and partnerships have become an emerging and desired strategy in addressing huge social and environmental challenges. Despite its popularity, cross-sector collaboration management has proven to be very challenging. Even though cross-sector collaboration and partnership management have been widely studied and discussed in recent years, their effectiveness as well as their ability to create value with respect to the problems they address has remained very challenging. There is little or no evidence of their ability to create value. Regarding all these challenges, this study aims to explore how to manage cross-sector collaborations and partnerships to be able to improve their effectiveness and to create more value for all partners involved in collaboration as well as for customers. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part comprises an overview of relevant literature (including strategic management, value networks and value creation theories), followed by presenting the results of the whole thesis and the contribution made by the study. The second part consists of six research publications, including both quantitative and qualitative studies. The chosen research strategy is triangulation, as the study includes four types of triangulation: (1) theoretical triangulation, (2) methodological triangulation, (3) data triangulation and (4) researcher triangulation. Two publications represent conceptual development, which are based on secondary data research. One publication is a quantitative study, carried out through a survey. The other three publications represent qualitative studies, based on case studies, where data was collected through interviews and workshops, with participation of managers from all three sectors: public, private and the third (nonprofit). The study consolidates the field of “strategic management of value networks,” which is proposed to be applied in the context of cross-sector collaboration and partnerships, with the aim of increasing their effectiveness and the process of value creation. Furthermore, the study proposes a first definition for the strategic management of value networks. The study also proposes and develops two strategy tools that are recommended to be used for the strategic management of value networks in cross-sector collaboration and partnerships. Taking a step forward, the study implements the strategy tools in practice, aiming to show and to demonstrate how new value can be created by using the developed strategy tools for the strategic management of value networks. This study makes four main contributions. (1) First, it brings a theoretical contribution by providing new insights and consolidating the field of strategic management of value networks, also proposing a first definition for the strategic management of value networks. (2) Second, the study makes a methodical contribution by proposing and developing two strategy tools for value networks of cross-sector collaboration: (a) value network mapping, a method that allows us to assess the current and the potential value network and (b) the Value Network Scorecard, a method of performance measurement and performance prediction in cross-sector collaboration. (3) Third, the study has managerial implications, offering new solutions and empirical evidence on how to increase the effectiveness of cross-sector collaboration and also allow managers to understand how new value can be created in cross-sector partnerships and how to get the full potential of collaboration. (4) And fourth, the study also has practical implications, allowing managers to understand how to use in practice the strategy tools developed in this study, providing discussions on the limitations regarding the proposed tools as well as general limitations involved in the study.

Apply of energy storages in electricity distribution networks and reserve capacity applications

The Thesis is dedicated to development of an operative tool to support decision making of battery energy storages implementation in distribution networks. The basics of various battery technologies, their perspectives and challenges are represented in the Thesis. Mathematical equations that describe economic effect from battery energy storage installation are offered. The main factors that influence profitability of battery settings have been explored and mathematically defined. Mathematical model and principal trends of battery storage profitability under an impact of the major factors are determined. The meaning of annual net value was introduced to show the difference between savings and required costs. The model gives a clear vision for dependencies between annual net value and main factors. Proposals for optimal network and battery characteristics are suggested.

The influence of high cable penetration in distribution networks on earth fault currents and the operation of relay protection.

Recent Storms in Nordic countries were a reason of long power outages in huge territories. After these disasters distribution networks' operators faced with a problem how to provide adequate quality of supply in such situation. The decision of utilization cable lines rather than overhead lines were made, which brings new features to distribution networks. The main idea of this work is a complex analysis of medium voltage distribution networks with long cable lines. High value of cable’s specific capacitance and length of lines determine such problems as: high values of earth fault currents, excessive amount of reactive power flow from distribution to transmission network, possibility of a high voltage level at the receiving end of cable feeders. However the core tasks was to estimate functional ability of the earth fault protection and the possibility to utilize simplified formulas for operating setting calculations in this network. In order to provide justify solution or evaluation of mentioned above problems corresponding calculations were made and in order to analyze behavior of relay protection principles PSCAD model of the examined network have been created. Evaluation of the voltage rise in the end of a cable line have educed absence of a dangerous increase in a voltage level, while excessive value of reactive power can be a reason of final penalty according to the Finish regulations. It was proved and calculated that for this networks compensation of earth fault currents should be implemented. In PSCAD models of the electrical grid with isolated neutral, central compensation and hybrid compensation were created. For the network with hybrid compensation methodology which allows to select number and rated power of distributed arc suppression coils have been offered. Based on the obtained results from experiments it was determined that in order to guarantee selective and reliable operation of the relay protection should be utilized hybrid compensation with connection of high-ohmic resistor. Directional and admittance based relay protection were tested under these conditions and advantageous of the novel protection were revealed. However, for electrical grids with extensive cabling necessity of a complex approach to the relay protection were explained and illustrated. Thus, in order to organize reliable earth fault protection is recommended to utilize both intermittent and conventional relay protection with operational settings calculated by the use of simplified formulas.