Index & judex syncretismorum 6

Invokaatio: In nomine Jesu!

Index & judex syncretismorum 3

Invokaatio: In nomine Jesu!

Index & judex syncretismorum 2

Invokaatio: In nomine Jesu!

The Forecast Performance of Model-Free Implied Volatility: Evidence from DAX Index Options

Volatility has a central role in various theoretical and practical applications in financial markets. These include the applications related to portfolio theory, derivatives pricing and financial risk management. Both theoretical and practical applications require good estimates and forecasts for the asset return volatility. The goal of this study is to examine the forecast performance of one of the more recent volatility measures, model-free implied volatility. Model-free implied volatility is extracted from the prices in the option markets, and it aims to provide an unbiased estimate for the market’s expectation on the future level of volatility. Since it is extracted from the option prices, model-free implied volatility should contain all the relevant information that the market participants have. Moreover, model-free implied volatility requires less restrictive assumptions than the commonly used Black-Scholes implied volatility, which means that it should be less biased estimate for the market’s expectations. Therefore, it should also be a better forecast for the future volatility. The forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is evaluated by comparing it to the forecast performance of Black-Scholes implied volatility and GARCH(1,1) forecast. Weekly forecasts for six years period were calculated for the forecasted variable, German stock market index DAX. The data consisted of price observations for DAX index options. The forecast performance was measured using econometric methods, which aimed to capture the biasedness, accuracy and the information content of the forecasts. The results of the study suggest that the forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is superior to forecast performance of GARCH(1,1) forecast. However, the results also suggest that the forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is not as good as the forecast performance of Black-Scholes implied volatility, which is against the hypotheses based on theory. The results of this study are consistent with the majority of prior research on the subject.

Hävittäjäohjaajan kognitiivisen kuormituksen tason mittaaminen NASA-Task Load Index ja Modified Cooper-Harper -mittareilla F/A-18 virtuaalisimulaattorissa

F/A-18-monitoimihävittäjän ohjaajan tehtävän kognitiiviset vaatimukset ovat korkeat. Kognitiivisen kuormituksen taso vaikuttaa hävittäjäohjaajan suoritustasoon ja subjektiivisiin tun-temuksiin. Yerkesin ja Dodsonin periaatteen mukaisesti erittäin matala tai erittäin korkea kuormituksen taso laskee suoritustasoa. Optimaalinen kuormituksen taso ja suoritustaso saa-vutetaan jossain ääripäiden välillä. Hävittäjäohjaajan kognitiivisen kuormituksen tasoon vaikuttaa lentotehtävän suorittamiseen vaadittava henkinen ponnistelu. Vaadittavan ponnistelun taso riippuu tehtävien vaatimustasosta ja määrästä, tehtäviin käytettävissä olevasta ajasta sekä yksilöllisistä ominaisuuksista. Tutkimuksessa mitattiin kognitiivisen kuormituksen tasoa subjektiivisen arvioinnin menetelmällä NASA-TLX (National Aeronautics and Space Administration - Task Load Index) ja MCH (Modified Cooper-Harper) -mittareilla. Tutkimuksessa selvitettiin mittareiden havaintoarvojen muutosta, sensitiivisyyttä ja yhdenmukaisuutta kognitiivisen kuormituksen tason muuttuessa. Tutkimuksen mittauksiin osallistui 35 Suomen ilmavoimien aktiivisessa palveluksessa olevaa F/A-18-monitoimihävittäjäohjaajaa. Koehenkilöiden lentotuntien keskiarvo F/A-18-monitoimihävittäjällä oli 598 tuntia ja keskihajonta 445 tuntia. Koehenkilöiden tehtävänä oli lentää F/A-18-virtuaalisimulaattorilla 11 ILS (Instrument Landing System) -mittarilähestymistä eri aloitusetäisyyksiltä kiitotien kynnyksestä. Kognitiivisesti kuormitta-van mittarilähestymistehtävän aikana kuormituksen tasoa nostettiin lisätehtävillä ja vähentä-mällä tehtäviin käytettävissä olevaa aikaa. Koehenkilöitä pyydettiin ponnistelemaan mahdollisimman paljon tehtävien suorittamisen aikana hyvän suoritustason ylläpitämiseksi. Tulosten perusteella mittareiden havaintoarvot muuttuivat kognitiivisen kuormituksen tason muuttuessa. Käytettävissä olevan ajan vaikutus kognitiivisen kuormituksen tasoon oli tilastollisesti erittäin merkitsevä. Mittarit olivat sensitiivisiä kognitiivisen kuormituksen tason muutokselle ja antoivat yhdenmukaisia havaintoarvoja.

Index librorum & tractatuum &c. &c. (cura [et] sumptibus J. G. d. ep. Ab.) Variis locis & temporibus, maximam partem recentioribus annis, in usum ecclesiae & scholarum in magno ducatu Finlandiae, editorum

Arkit: A2 B.

Index librorum & tractatuum &c. &c. (cura [et] sumptibus J. G. d. ep. Ab.) Variis locis & temporibus, maximam partem recentioribus annis, in usum ecclesiae & scholarum in magno ducatu Finlandiae, editorum

Arkit: A2 B1.

Sedentary behaviour and health with special reference to obesity and fatty liver in early midlife. The Cardiovascular risk in Young Finns Study

Background: Physical inactivity and positive energy balance pose a risk to health. They increase the risk of obesity and associated non-communicable diseases. Recently, also sedentary behaviour has been associated with obesity and non-communicable diseases. Nevertheless, it has been unclear which type of sedentary behaviour is the most harmful. It is also unknown whether the relationship of sedentary behaviour with obesity is truly independent of other factors, for example physical activity and diet. Longitudinal data are limited, and the direction of causality and the mechanism of action are still unknown. Aims: The aim of this study was 1) to identify the type of sedentary behaviour having the strongest association with obesity, 2) to explore the causal relationship of sedentary behaviour and weight increase, and 3) to additionally, investigate the relationship of sedentary behaviour with fatty liver. These were studied in cross-sectional and/or longitudinal settings using data from the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study. Special emphasis was put on the evaluation of a wide range of other lifestyle factors and risks for obesity and fatty liver. Subjects: 2,060 subjects (aged 33-50 years in 2011, of which 55 % were female) from the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study participating in follow-ups in 2001, 2007, and 2011. Measures: Self-reported time spent in various types of sedentary behaviour (I), or TV viewing time (I-III). Measured body weight, height and waist circumference (I-III), and genetic variants for high BMI (I). Fasting plasma concentrations of gamma-glutamyltransferase enzyme and triglyceride, calculated Fatty Liver Index (based on gamma-glutamyltransferase and triglyceride concentration, BMI and waist circumference), and the amount of intrahepatic fat measured with ultrasound (III). Self-reported leisure-time physical activity and active commuting, occupational physical activity, energy intake, diet, alcohol consumption, smoking, socioeconomic status, and sleep duration as possible confounders were considered (I-III). Results: TV viewing is the sedentary behaviour type that has the strongest association with obesity. Sedentary behaviour (TV viewing) precedes weight increase, and not the other way around. Sedentary behaviour (TV viewing) is associated with increased risk of fatty liver. Conclusions: Sedentary behaviour (especially high TV viewing time) is associated with increased risks of obesity and fatty liver. Intervention studies are needed to assess whether reduction of TV time would prevent obesity and fatty liver.