Pricing anomalies in the Finnish stock market

The aim of this thesis is to examine whether the pricing anomalies exists in the Finnish stock markets by comparing the performance of quantile portfolios that are formed on the basis of either individual valuation ratios, composite value measures or combined value and momentum indicators. All the research papers included in the thesis show evidence of value anomalies in the Finnish stock markets. In the first paper, the sample of stocks over the 1991-2006 period is divided into quintile portfolios based on four individual valuation ratios (i.e., E/P, EBITDA/EV, B/P, and S/P) and three hybrids of them (i.e. composite value measures). The results show the superiority of composite value measures as selection criterion for value stocks, particularly when EBITDA/EV is employed as earnings multiple. The main focus of the second paper is on the impact of the holding period length on performance of value strategies. As an extension to the first paper, two more individual ratios (i.e. CF/P and D/P) are included in the comparative analysis. The sample of stocks over 1993- 2008 period is divided into tercile portfolios based on six individual valuation ratios and three hybrids of them. The use of either dividend yield criterion or one of three composite value measures being examined results in best value portfolio performance according to all performance metrics used. Parallel to the findings of many international studies, our results from performance comparisons indicate that for the sample data employed, the yearly reformation of portfolios is not necessarily optimal in order to maximally gain from the value premium. Instead, the value investor may extend his holding period up to 5 years without any decrease in long-term portfolio performance. The same holds also for the results of the third paper that examines the applicability of data envelopment analysis (DEA) method in discriminating the undervalued stocks from overvalued ones. The fourth paper examines the added value of combining price momentum with various value strategies. Taking account of the price momentum improves the performance of value portfolios in most cases. The performance improvement is greatest for value portfolios that are formed on the basis of the 3-composite value measure which consists of D/P, B/P and EBITDA/EV ratios. The risk-adjusted performance can be enhanced further by following 130/30 long-short strategy in which the long position of value winner stocks is leveraged by 30 percentages while simultaneously selling short glamour loser stocks by the same amount. Average return of the long-short position proved to be more than double stock market average coupled with the volatility decrease. The fifth paper offers a new approach to combine value and momentum indicators into a single portfolio-formation criterion using different variants of DEA models. The results throughout the 1994-2010 sample period shows that the top-tercile portfolios outperform both the market portfolio and the corresponding bottom-tercile portfolios. In addition, the middle-tercile portfolios also outperform the comparable bottom-tercile portfolios when DEA models are used as a basis for stock classification criteria. To my knowledge, such strong performance differences have not been reported in earlier peer-reviewed studies that have employed the comparable quantile approach of dividing stocks into portfolios. Consistently with the previous literature, the division of the full sample period into bullish and bearish periods reveals that the top-quantile DEA portfolios lose far less of their value during the bearish conditions than do the corresponding bottom portfolios. The sixth paper extends the sample period employed in the fourth paper by one year (i.e. 1993- 2009) covering also the first years of the recent financial crisis. It contributes to the fourth paper by examining the impact of the stock market conditions on the main results. Consistently with the fifth paper, value portfolios lose much less of their value during bearish conditions than do stocks on average. The inclusion of a momentum criterion somewhat adds value to an investor during bullish conditions, but this added value turns to negative during bearish conditions. During bear market periods some of the value loser portfolios perform even better than their value winner counterparts. Furthermore, the results show that the recent financial crisis has reduced the added value of using combinations of momentum and value indicators as portfolio formation criteria. However, since the stock markets have historically been bullish more often than bearish, the combination of the value and momentum criteria has paid off to the investor despite the fact that its added value during bearish periods is negative, on an average.

Developing raster bands computed from LiDAR to improve forest

This study examines the use of di erent features derived from remotely sensed data in segmentation of forest stands. Surface interpolation methods were applied to LiDAR points in order to represent data in the form of grayscale images. Median and mean shift ltering was applied to the data for noise reduction. The ability of di erent compositions of rasters obtained from LiDAR data and an aerial image to maximize stand homogeneity in the segmentation was evaluated. The quality of forest stand delineations was assessed by the Akaike information criterion. The research was performed in co-operation with Arbonaut Ltd., Joensuu, Finland.

Modeling of fireside deposit formation in two industrial furnaces

Fireside deposits can be found in many types of utility and industrial furnaces. The deposits in furnaces are problematic because they can reduce heat transfer, block gas paths and cause corrosion. To tackle these problems, it is vital to estimate the influence of deposits on heat transfer, to minimize deposit formation and to optimize deposit removal. It is beneficial to have a good understanding of the mechanisms of fireside deposit formation. Numerical modeling is a powerful tool for investigating the heat transfer in furnaces, and it can provide valuable information for understanding the mechanisms of deposit formation. In addition, a sub-model of deposit formation is generally an essential part of a comprehensive furnace model. This work investigates two specific processes of fireside deposit formation in two industrial furnaces. The first process is the slagging wall found in furnaces with molten deposits running on the wall. A slagging wall model is developed to take into account the two-layer structure of the deposits. With the slagging wall model, the thickness and the surface temperature of the molten deposit layer can be calculated. The slagging wall model is used to predict the surface temperature and the heat transfer to a specific section of a super-heater tube panel with the boundary condition obtained from a Kraft recovery furnace model. The slagging wall model is also incorporated into the computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based Kraft recovery furnace model and applied on the lower furnace walls. The implementation of the slagging wall model includes a grid simplification scheme. The wall surface temperature calculated with the slagging wall model is used as the heat transfer boundary condition. Simulation of a Kraft recovery furnace is performed, and it is compared with two other cases and measurements. In the two other cases, a uniform wall surface temperature and a wall surface temperature calculated with a char bed burning model are used as the heat transfer boundary conditions. In this particular furnace, the wall surface temperatures from the three cases are similar and are in the correct range of the measurements. Nevertheless, the wall surface temperature profiles with the slagging wall model and the char bed burning model are different because the deposits are represented differently in the two models. In addition, the slagging wall model is proven to be computationally efficient. The second process is deposit formation due to thermophoresis of fine particles to the heat transfer surface. This process is considered in the simulation of a heat recovery boiler of the flash smelting process. In order to determine if the small dust particles stay on the wall, a criterion based on the analysis of forces acting on the particle is applied. Time-dependent simulation of deposit formation in the heat recovery boiler is carried out and the influence of deposits on heat transfer is investigated. The locations prone to deposit formation are also identified in the heat recovery boiler. Modeling of the two processes in the two industrial furnaces enhances the overall understanding of the processes. The sub-models developed in this work can be applied in other similar deposit formation processes with carefully-defined boundary conditions.

Carrier selection and management : A case study on Neste Oil Retail

Service provider selection has been said to be a critical factor in the formation of supply chains. Through successful selection companies can attain competitive advantage, cost savings and more flexible operations. Service provider management is the next crucial step in outsourcing process after the selection has been made. Without proper management companies cannot be sure about the level of service they have bought and they may suffer from service provider's opportunistic behavior. In worst case scenario the buyer company may end up in locked-in situation in which it is totally dependent of the service provider. This thesis studies how the case company conducts its carrier selection process along with the criteria related to it. A model for the final selection is also provided. In addition, case company's carrier management procedures are reflected against recommendations from previous researches. The research was conducted as a qualitative case study on the principal company, Neste Oil Retail. A literature review was made on outsourcing, service provider selection and service provider management. On the basis of the literature review, this thesis ended up recommending Analytic hierarchy process as the preferred model for the carrier selection. Furthermore, Agency theory was seen to be a functional framework for carrier management in this study. Empirical part of this thesis was conducted in the case company by interviewing the key persons in the selection process, making observations and going through documentations related to the subject. According to the results from the study, both carrier selection process as well as carrier management were closely in line with suggestions from literature review. Analytic hierarchy process results revealed that the case company considers service quality as the most important criteria with financial situation and price of service following behind with almost identical weights with each other. Equipment and personnel was seen as the least important selection criterion. Regarding carrier management, the study resulted in the conclusion that the company should consider engaging more in carrier development and working towards beneficial and effective relationships. Otherwise, no major changes were recommended for the case company processes.

Pohjoiskarjalaisen kasvuyrityksen menestystekijät

Tämän pro gradu -tutkielman tarkoituksena oli kartoittaa pohjoiskarjalaisten kasvuyritysten menestystekijöitä. Tutkimuksen tarkoitus oli tehdä alustava pohjatyö pohjoiskarjalaisten kasvuyritysten ja niissä vaikuttavien menestystekijöiden tarkempaa tutkimusta varten. Laajemmassa mittakaavassa tämän tutkimuksen toivotaan tuovan hyötyä pohjoiskarjalaiselle elinkeinoelämälle ja erityisesti aloittaville yrittäjille. Tutkimus toteutettiin laadullisena tutkimuksena. Tutkimusaineisto kerättiin haastattelemalla neljän pohjoiskarjalaisen kasvuyrityksen edustajia soveltamalla teemahaastattelua. Kohdeyritykset määriteltiin kasvuyrityksiksi käyttämällä EurostatOECD:n kasvuyrityksen kriteeriä. Kohdeyrityksistä haastateltiin kahdesta kolmeen ylimpään johtoon kuuluvaa avainhenkilöä, joista useimmat olivat myös yritysten omistajia. Haastattelujen perusteella muodostetut yritysnarratiivit toimivat jatkoanalysoinnin perustana. Tutkimuksessa todettiin, että pohjoiskarjalaisen kasvuyrityksen merkityksellisimmät menestystekijät polveutuvat omistajan yrittäjämäisestä asenteesta ja vasta tämän jälkeen tulevat yrittäjän kasvuasenteisiin, yrityksen strategiseen sopivuuteen ja yrityksen resursseihin lukeutuvat menestystekijät. Myös kulttuuristen tekijöiden epäsuorasta vaikutuksesta yrityksen kasvuun saatiin tutkimuksessa viitteitä.

Toimittajavalinnan kriteerit suomalaisessa laboratorio- ja sairaanhoitovälineiden maahantuontia ja tukkukauppaa harjoittavassa yrityksessä

Tämä kandidaatintutkielma keskittyy toimittajien valintakriteereihin sekä yleisesti että valitussa tapausyrityksessä. Toimittajanvalintakriteereitä pohjustetaan katsauksella toimittajanvalintaprosessiin ja toimittajien luokitteluun ja siltä pohjalta käsitellään kriteereitä yleisellä tasolla ja eritasoisissa toimittajasuhteissa.

Feasibility of the use of recycled nutrients in fast growing pulpwood production

The application of pulp and paper mill (PPM) sludge in agriculture and forestry has been acknowledged as soil amendments and a plant nutrient source. The main objectives of this study were to evaluate the total cost of the use of recycled nutrients from PPM sludge in fast growing pulpwood production, and the financial profitability of fast growing pulpwood production with the use of these recycled nutrients. The investment and production costs of fast growing pulpwood plantation were directly acquired from a previous research, while the other data was compiled through different studies. The total cost of the use of PPM sludge was evaluated based on assumed factors. Discounted cash flow method was used to evaluate the financial profitability, using NPV and IRR as indicators. The results of estimated sludge nutrient contents were 16.2 g N, 2.9 g P, and 2.4 g K kg-1 of dry sludge. The sludge application rate was estimated at 1.36 Mg/ha in the first year. The total cost of the use of PPM sludge involved transport and spreading cost of US$49.15/dry ton. The fertilization cost applied in the financial model was designed in 3 different options and their results were as follows: option (1) was taken directly from the reference research (US$97/ha); option (2) was the use of sludge alone (US$66.75/ha); and option (3) was the use of sludge and TSP fertilizer (US$83.80/ha). The average NPV without discounting was US$248,180 while the IRRs ranged between approximately 3-4% with an average of 3.63%. Although option (2) and (3) contributed to higher IRRs compared to option (1), this increase was still not significant as the IRR was not sensitive to the total fertilization cost. The advantages are that this practice can be performed at a lower cost and the application rate can be still increased if necessary. It is better for forest plantations compared to agriculture and consequently supports reforestation program. In addition, it can be similarly applied in wood biomass production. A disadvantage is that the IRRs were not very favorable compared to the criterion of 11%. The sludge high in C:N ratio can cause nitrogen immobilization, and regulatory concerns may restrict and complicate the use of sludge landspreading and contribute to additional costs and processes.

Recovery boilers - history and future

Recovery boilers are built all over the world. The roots of recovery technology are longer than the roots of recovery boilers. But it wasn’t until the invention of recovery boilers before the Second World War that the pulping technology was revolutionalized. This led to long development of essentially the same type of equipment, culminating into units that are largest biofuel boilers in the world. Early recovery technology concentrated on chemical recovery as chemicals cost money and if one could recycle these chemicals then the profitability of pulp manufacture would improve. For pulp mills the significance of electricity generation from the recovery boiler was for long secondary. The most important design criterion for the recovery boiler was a high availability. The electricity generation in recovery boiler process can be increased by elevated main steam pressure and temperature or by higher black liquor dry solids as well as improving its steam cycle. This has been done in the modern Scandinavian units.

Performance of value and momentum strategies in the Swedish stock market

This thesis investigates the performance of value and momentum strategies in the Swedish stock market during the 2000-2015 sample period. In addition the performance of some value and value-momentum combination is examined. The data consists of all the publicly traded companies in the Swedish stock market between 2000-2015. P/E, P/B, P/S, EV/EBITDA, EV/S ratios and 3, 6 and 12 months value criteria are used in the portfolio formation. In addition to single selection criteria, combination of P/E and P/B (aka. Graham number), the average ranking of the five value criteria and EV/EBIT – 3 month momentum combination is used as a portfolio-formation criterion. The stocks are divided into quintile portfolios based on each selection criterion. The portfolios are reformed once a year using the April’s price information and previous year’s financial information. The performance of the portfolios is examined based on average annual return, the Sharpe ratio and the Jensen alpha. The results show that the value-momentum combination is the best-performing portfolio both during the whole sample period and during the sub-period that started after the 2007-financial crisis.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Factors Affecting Runnability of Press Forming Equipment

The growth of the food packaging industry has raised more interest in bio-based fibre packing. The use of petroleum based packages is unfriendly to the environment while bio-based is a sustainable option for food packing. In this Master Thesis the aim was to discover how the press forming machineries runnability is affected by parameters of the press and how it also affects formability of paperboard trays. Familiarisation of the working operation parameters was done with the KAMA ST 75 flat-bed die cutting machine and the VP3-70 mould press. Some small test runs of moulding trays where done to get acquainted to the adjustment parameters of the machines. Literature study was done on how paperboards physical properties react to the forces applied during press forming. The study of what kind of defects to the paperboard tray might occur during forming process and the causes for these defects. Also how the parameters of the press forming machine affects formability of the tray. Maintenance procedures was done to the press forming machine to enhance the reliably of production process. Tool alignment measurement was done to determine proper alignment. Laboratory test of the physical properties of the test material was done to find any connection to how the test material performs in press forming. An evaluation criterion was made to evaluate the dimensions and defects of the tray. From the test result a conclusion can be drawn on how the parameters of the press forming process affect the paperboard material. Based on the results the adjustment the parameters of moulding machines to the mechanical properties of paperboard it is possible to produce high quality fibre passed trays for the food packaging industry.

Performance Degradation Modelling and Techno-Economic Analysis of Lithium-Ion Battery Energy Storage Systems

Transmission system operators and distribution system operators are experiencing new challenges in terms of reliability, power quality, and cost efficiency. Although the potential of energy storages to face those challenges is recognized, the economic implications are still obscure, which introduce the risk into the business models. This thesis aims to investigate the technical and economic value indicators of lithium-ion battery energy storage systems (BESS) in grid-scale applications. In order to do that, a comprehensive performance lithium-ion BESS model with degradation effects estimation is developed. The model development process implies literature review on lifetime modelling, use, and modification of previous study progress, building the additional system parts and integrating it into a complete tool. The constructed model is capable of describing the dynamic behavior of the BESS voltage, state of charge, temperature and capacity loss. Five control strategies for BESS unit providing primary frequency regulation are implemented, in addition to the model. The questions related to BESS dimensioning and the end of life (EoL) criterion are addressed. Simulations are performed with one-month real frequency data acquired from Fingrid. The lifetime and cost-benefit analysis of the simulation results allow to compare and determine the preferable control strategy. Finally, the study performs the sensitivity analysis of economic profitability with variable size, EoL and system price. The research reports that BESS can be profitable in certain cases and presents the recommendations.