State of logistics and transport in the Baltic Sea region in 2025

The world’s pace of change is accelerating and new innovations, inventions and technologies come about every day. Change is unavoidable. It is difficult to keep up and even more difficult to prepare for the future. Even though it is not possible to know exactly what will happen in the future, by studying futures people can better anticipate what might lie ahead. By making decisions and realizing the consequences of their choices today, people and governments are able to actively decide how they will act in the future. Both opportunities and pitfalls lie ahead, which encourages actors to make more farsighted decisions. The Baltic Sea region is an interesting area for futures studies. It comprises 11 nations and more than 100 million inhabitants and entails countries with advanced, high-income economies, like Finland, Germany and Denmark, and developing economies, like Russia, Latvia and Lithuania. The western, eastern, northern and southern parts of the region are separated by the Baltic Sea, which at the same time represents a barrier and a facility for trade and travel between the countries belonging to the region The purpose of this study was to uncover the most probable future of transport and logistics in the Baltic Sea region in 2025 by using the Delphi method. Altogether 109 responses were collected in two separate instances from experts in all the Baltic Sea region countries, 56 of whom were defined as academic respondents and 53 of whom business respondents. Only minor differences in the opinions of academic and business experts were discovered, and the larger differences lie between eastern and western response groups. The Baltic Sea region is a very heterogeneous region and the division is clearest between East and West, which differ in political, economic, social, technological and environmental aspects. The probable future of the Baltic Sea region presented in this study is coherent with previous studies on the same subject. The future of the Baltic Sea region in terms of logistics and transport looks quite bright according to the experts who participated in the study. Trade volumes will grow and the importance of logistics and transport to the competitiveness of the region will increase. Respondents from eastern countries seemed to be more optimistic about the future in general. Most differences between opinions could be explained by the gap in technological and infrastructural development between the East and West. As eastern countries are less-developed in some parts of their economies, it is easier for them to improve the technical condition of infrastructure by merely catching up with the western countries.

Siltojen korjauskustannukset ja niihin vaikuttavat tekijät

Työn tavoitteena oli tunnistaa merkittävimmät sillankorjauskustannuksiin vaikuttavat tekijät, ja selvittää niiden vaikutusten suuruus asiantuntijahaastattelujen ja ELY-keskuksista saatavien kustannustietojen yksikköhintaluetteloiden avulla. Kaakkois-Suomen, Pirkanmaan, Pohjois-Savon, Varsinais-Suomen ja Uudenmaan ELY-keskuksista saatiin yhteensä 37 sillankorjausurakan kustannustiedot. Lisäksi käytössä oli Vt6 Lappeenranta-Imatra ja Vt7 Haminan ohikulkutie –valtatiehankkeiden kustannustiedot. Urakoissa korjattiin yhteensä 131 siltaa. Kustannustietojen ja asiantuntijahaastatteluiden perusteella tunnistettiin merkittävimmät kustannuksiin vaikuttavat tekijät, ja saatiin luotua arvio niiden vaikutuksille eri tapauksissa. Lisäksi saatiin selvitettyä mahdollisuuksia alentaa korjauskustannuksia, ja luotiin toimintamalli jolla saadaan toteutettua korjausurakka mahdollisimman alhaisilla kustannuksilla.

Towards sustainable transport: A comparison of demographic and behavioural characteristics of Finnish and international car sharing users

SStrong evidence suggests that the climate is changing and that these changes are largely caused by human activities. A consensus exists among researchers that human activity is causing global warming and that actions to mitigate global warming need to be taken swiftly. The transportation sector, which relies heavily on fossil fuel burning and primarily oil, is one of the big contributors to air pollution problems at local, regional and global levels. It is the fastest growing source of greenhouse gas emissions and is estimated to be responsible for nearly a quarter of global energyrelated carbon dioxide emissions. Car sharing is a mobility solution encouraging its users to decrease private car usage in favour of communal transit and environmental goals. The idea of car sharing originates from the aspiration to decrease personal car ownership and to reduce vehicle distance travelled. This thesis seeks to complement the understanding of Finnish car sharing users and their usage through better categorization. Through better categorization and segmentation of Finnish car sharing users the thesis seeks to provide information for improved marketing insight. Research is done on the demographic and behavioural characteristics of Finnish car sharing users and they are compared with international findings about the characteristics of International car sharing users. The main research problem is Are Finnish car sharing users similar to international ones? A theoretical research framework on the determinants of individual car sharing usage is built based on international research about demographic and behaviouristic characteristics. After this a quantitative survey is performed to the customers of a Finnish car sharing organization. The data analysed in the thesis consist out of 532 answers received from the car sharing organizations customers. The data is analysed with descriptive and other exploratory methods, which create an understanding of Finnish car sharing users. At the end of the analysis the demographic and behavioural characteristics of Finnish car sharing users are compared with international ones. The research findings of the thesis indicate that the demographic and behavioural characteristics of Finnish car sharing usage largely follow those of their international counterparts. Thanks to the thesis results the car sharing organization is able to better target their customers through improved marketing insight.

Improving Cost-Efficiency and Reducing Environmental Impacts of Intermodal Transportation with Dry Port Concept – Major Rail Transport Corridor in Baltic Sea Region

Transportation plays a major role in the gross domestic product of various nations. There are, however, many obstacles hindering the transportation sector. Cost-efficiency along with proper delivery times, high frequency and reliability are not a straightforward task. Furthermore, environmental friendliness has increased the importance of the whole transportation sector. This development will change roles inside the transportation sector. Even now, but especially in the future, decisions regarding the transportation sector will be partly based on emission levels and other externalities originating from transportation in addition to pure transportation costs. There are different factors, which could have an impact on the transportation sector. IMO’s sulphur regulation is estimated to increase the costs of short sea shipping in the Baltic Sea. Price development of energy could change the roles of different transport modes. Higher awareness of the environmental impacts originating from transportation could also have an impact on the price level of more polluting transport modes. According to earlier research, increased inland transportation, modal shift and slowsteaming can be possible results of these changes in the transportation sector. Possible changes in the transportation sector and ways to settle potential obstacles are studied in this dissertation. Furthermore, means to improve cost-efficiency and to decrease environmental impacts originating from transportation are researched. Hypothetical Finnish dry port network and Rail Baltica transport corridor are studied in this dissertation. Benefits and disadvantages are studied with different methodologies. These include gravitational models, which were optimized with linear integer programming, discrete-event and system dynamics simulation, an interview study and a case study. Geographical focus is on the Baltic Sea Region, but the results can be adapted to other geographical locations with discretion. Results indicate that the dry port concept has benefits, but optimization regarding the location and the amount of dry ports plays an important role. In addition, the utilization of dry ports for freight transportation should be carefully operated, since only a certain amount of total freight volume can be cost-efficiently transported through dry ports. If dry ports are created and located without proper planning, they could actually increase transportation costs and delivery times of the whole transportation system. With an optimized dry port network, transportation costs can be lowered in Finland with three to five dry ports. Environmental impacts can be lowered with up to nine dry ports. If more dry ports are added to the system, the benefits become very minor, i.e. payback time of investments becomes extremely long. Furthermore, dry port network could support major transport corridors such as Rail Baltica. Based on an analysis of statistics and interview study, there could be enough freight volume available for Rail Baltica, especially, if North-West Russia is part of the Northern end of the corridor. Transit traffic to and from Russia (especially through the Baltic States) plays a large role. It could be possible to increase transit traffic through Finland by connecting the potential Finnish dry port network and the studied transport corridor. Additionally, sulphur emission regulation is assumed to increase the attractiveness of Rail Baltica in the year 2015. Part of the transit traffic could be rerouted along Rail Baltica instead of the Baltic Sea, since the price level of sea transport could increase due to the sulphur regulation. Both, the hypothetical Finnish dry port network and Rail Baltica transport corridor could benefit each other. The dry port network could gain more market share from Russia, but also from Central Europe, which is the other end of Rail Baltica. In addition, further Eastern countries could also be connected to achieve higher potential freight volume by rail.

Critical success factors for improving societal effectiveness of transport sector's R&D

This study investigates societal effectiveness of transport sector’s Research & Development (R&D) operations. In this study effectiveness refers to organization’s capability to produce the intended and desired impacts through its operations. The aim of this study is to identify the motives for evaluating societal effectiveness and recognize the critical success factors for improving effectiveness. The theoretical framework focuses first in the policy context of effectiveness evaluation in public sector and secondly the framework introduces the concept and process of effectiveness evaluation. The empirical part is carried out as a case study, which investigates societal effectiveness of Finnish Transport Agency’s (FTA’s) R&D. The aim is to recognize FTA’s critical success factors for improving R&D operations’ societal effectiveness. Based on these factors, the organization is able to define indicators for measuring effectiveness in the future operations. In this study societal effectiveness is investigated from R&D purchasers’ and R&D end- users’ points of views according to Purchaser-Provider-model. The results indicate that societal effectiveness evaluation is important part of R&D operations, but the implementation of the evaluation as part of daily operations is challenging. Because of limited resources, the organization is forced to strong priorization and therefore R&D tasks are secondary after the operational tasks. Based on the results the critical success factors can be recognized as resources and priorization, clear strategy and objectives, internal communications, cooperation between public and private sector and R&D implementation and dissemination.

The Construction of ‘Disciplinary’ Violence Against Children — Social Workers’, Police Officers’ and Parents’ Rationales

This dissertation examines parental disciplinary violence against children in authority records and in the criminal procedure in Finland. The main aim is to analyze disciplinary violence, how it is defined, and how it is constructed as a crime by social workers, the police, and parents. This dissertation consists of four sub-studies and a summary article. In the first sub-study, I examine how disciplinary violence appears in child welfare documents and analyze the decision-making processes and measures taken by the child welfare workers. The second sub-study, utilizing police interview data, examines police officers’ perceptions of disciplinary violence, its criminalization, and its investigation. In addition to this analysis of police officers’ own perceptions, in the third sub-study, I use reports of crime and pre-trial investigation documents to look at what a typical suspicion of disciplinary violence coming to the attention of the police is and examine the decision-making processes of the police. Utilizing authority data, the fourth sub-study analyzes how parents rationalize the use of disciplinary violence to the authorities investigating these suspicions. The research provides findings that are unprecedented in Finland. Firstly, it was shown that social workers’ decision-making processes in suspicions of disciplinary violence follow three pathways of reasoning, with many factors taken into consideration; and in less than one-third of the cases, a request for criminal investigation has been made to the police. Secondly, it was verified that police officers hold different perceptions of disciplinary violence, and these perceptions have multiple effects on the investigation of these cases and the construction of disciplinary violence as a crime. Thirdly, the analysis of the reports of crime and pre-trial investigation documents showed that almost two-thirds of the cases of disciplinary violence had been sent to a prosecutor by the police and, thus, defined as a crime. However, in many cases, acts of disciplinary violence were often seen as ‘educational, petty one-off incidents’ and a possible trial and punishment for the perpetrator were seen as unreasonable. Fourthly, it was found that parents often try to neutralize and rationalize the violence they have used against their children, for example, either by denying the victim, the criminal intent, or the entire act, or relying on the necessity of the forbidden act. The dissertation concludes that disciplinary violence is defined and constructed in authority policies and practices, first and foremost, by the severity of the act, the nature of the act as continuous or singular, the perceived harm caused by the act to a child, and the perceptions of authorities regarding physical punishment of children. The asymmetrical power setting present in disciplinary violence and parents’ legitimized right to raise and discipline their children partly seem to explain why criminal-law processing of these suspicions of violence and understanding these as crimes is difficult. Finally, this research calls for more coherent and consistent authority practices and policies, achieved by educating authorities and increasing awareness on disciplinary violence, questions the need for a concept like ‘disciplinary’ violence, and suggests more emphasis on unambiguous perceptions of a child’s best interest.