Pricing anomalies in the Finnish stock market

The aim of this thesis is to examine whether the pricing anomalies exists in the Finnish stock markets by comparing the performance of quantile portfolios that are formed on the basis of either individual valuation ratios, composite value measures or combined value and momentum indicators. All the research papers included in the thesis show evidence of value anomalies in the Finnish stock markets. In the first paper, the sample of stocks over the 1991-2006 period is divided into quintile portfolios based on four individual valuation ratios (i.e., E/P, EBITDA/EV, B/P, and S/P) and three hybrids of them (i.e. composite value measures). The results show the superiority of composite value measures as selection criterion for value stocks, particularly when EBITDA/EV is employed as earnings multiple. The main focus of the second paper is on the impact of the holding period length on performance of value strategies. As an extension to the first paper, two more individual ratios (i.e. CF/P and D/P) are included in the comparative analysis. The sample of stocks over 1993- 2008 period is divided into tercile portfolios based on six individual valuation ratios and three hybrids of them. The use of either dividend yield criterion or one of three composite value measures being examined results in best value portfolio performance according to all performance metrics used. Parallel to the findings of many international studies, our results from performance comparisons indicate that for the sample data employed, the yearly reformation of portfolios is not necessarily optimal in order to maximally gain from the value premium. Instead, the value investor may extend his holding period up to 5 years without any decrease in long-term portfolio performance. The same holds also for the results of the third paper that examines the applicability of data envelopment analysis (DEA) method in discriminating the undervalued stocks from overvalued ones. The fourth paper examines the added value of combining price momentum with various value strategies. Taking account of the price momentum improves the performance of value portfolios in most cases. The performance improvement is greatest for value portfolios that are formed on the basis of the 3-composite value measure which consists of D/P, B/P and EBITDA/EV ratios. The risk-adjusted performance can be enhanced further by following 130/30 long-short strategy in which the long position of value winner stocks is leveraged by 30 percentages while simultaneously selling short glamour loser stocks by the same amount. Average return of the long-short position proved to be more than double stock market average coupled with the volatility decrease. The fifth paper offers a new approach to combine value and momentum indicators into a single portfolio-formation criterion using different variants of DEA models. The results throughout the 1994-2010 sample period shows that the top-tercile portfolios outperform both the market portfolio and the corresponding bottom-tercile portfolios. In addition, the middle-tercile portfolios also outperform the comparable bottom-tercile portfolios when DEA models are used as a basis for stock classification criteria. To my knowledge, such strong performance differences have not been reported in earlier peer-reviewed studies that have employed the comparable quantile approach of dividing stocks into portfolios. Consistently with the previous literature, the division of the full sample period into bullish and bearish periods reveals that the top-quantile DEA portfolios lose far less of their value during the bearish conditions than do the corresponding bottom portfolios. The sixth paper extends the sample period employed in the fourth paper by one year (i.e. 1993- 2009) covering also the first years of the recent financial crisis. It contributes to the fourth paper by examining the impact of the stock market conditions on the main results. Consistently with the fifth paper, value portfolios lose much less of their value during bearish conditions than do stocks on average. The inclusion of a momentum criterion somewhat adds value to an investor during bullish conditions, but this added value turns to negative during bearish conditions. During bear market periods some of the value loser portfolios perform even better than their value winner counterparts. Furthermore, the results show that the recent financial crisis has reduced the added value of using combinations of momentum and value indicators as portfolio formation criteria. However, since the stock markets have historically been bullish more often than bearish, the combination of the value and momentum criteria has paid off to the investor despite the fact that its added value during bearish periods is negative, on an average.

Projektien markkinoinnin ja myynnin kehittäminen rakennusalan pk-yrityksessä Venäjän markkinoilla

Tämä diplomityö keskittyy kehittämään työssä käsiteltävän Venäjällä toimivan rakennusalan urakoitsijan projektien markkinointia ja myyntiä. Työssä paneudutaan projektimarkkinoinnin kautta yrityksen markkinointiin ja myyntiin. Käsittelyn aiheena ovat myös proaktiivinen markkinointi ja Venäjän rakennusmarkkinoiden aiheuttamat erityispiirteet. Tutkimuksesta selvisi, että yrityksellä on erityisesti ollut vaikeuksia saada ison luokan projekteja. Usein tähän on ollut syynä kilpailijoiden parempi taloudellinen kilpailukyky. Muutama projekti on myös keskeytynyt tai peruuntunut. Onnistuneiden tarjouskilpailuiden taustalla taas ovat olleet referenssikäynnit, hyvät suhteet asiakkaaseen ja laadukas suorittaminen. Projektimarkkinoinnin kirjallisuuden ja yrityksessä suoritettujen teemahaastattelujen pohjalta yritykselle kehitettiin ennakoivaa markkinointia painottava kokonaisvaltainen markkinointi- ja myyntiprosessi. Tärkeimpiä kohtia prosessissa ovat proaktiivinen projektien etsintä ja projektin valmistelu. Projekteja etsitään osallistumalla teollisuuden alan konferensseihin sekä ottamalla itse yhteyttä asiakkaaseen ja eri toimijoihin. Potentiaaliset projektit seulotaan suuremmasta joukosta ennalta määrättyjen kriteereiden avulla. Projekteihin pyritään aktiivisesti vaikuttamaan ennen tarjouskilpailua, jolloin myös järjestetään referenssikäyntejä. Neuvotteluissa sovelletaan kilpailutilanteen mukaan joustavaa kustannusperusteista hinnoittelua. Suoritetun urakan jälkeen asiakasyrityksen investointisuunnitelmia tutkitaan ja tarpeen vaatiessa pyritään säilyttämään yhteys nukkuvan suhteen aikana. Tällöin järjestetään asiakkaan kanssa seminaareja sekä epävirallisia ta-pahtumia. Yrityksen markkinointia ja myyntiä hankaloittavat Venäjän rakennusmarkkinoiden erityispiirteet. Epävarmuudesta aiheutuvat riskit pitää huomioida katteessa, mutta usein Venäjän erityisolosuhteet tulee vain hyväksyä, koska niihin on vaikea vaikuttaa.

The sources of complementary competitive advantages for systems’ manufacturers in the aircraft modernization market

Being a top of high technology industries, the aerospace represents one of the most complex fields of study. While the competitiveness of aircraft systems’ manufacturers attracts a significant number of researchers, some of the issues remain to be a blank spot. One of those is the after-sale modernization. The master thesis investigates how this concept is related to the theory of competitive advantages. Finding the routes in the framework of complex technological systems’ lifecycle, the key drivers of the aircraft modernization market are revealed. The competitive positioning of players is defined through multiple case studies in a form of several in-depth interviews. The key result of the research is the conclusion that modernization should be considered as an inherent component of strategy of any aircraft systems’ manufacturer, while the master thesis aims to support managerial decision making.

Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

The accumulation of financial and social capital as a means to achieve a sustained competitive advantage for consumer co-operatives

By so far, scholars have discussed how the characteristics of consumer co-operatives (cooperative principles, values and the dual role of members as the users and owners) can potentially give them a competitive advantage over investor-owned firms (IOFs). In addition, concern for the community (as partly derived from locality and regionality) has been seen as a potential source of success for consumer co-operatives. On the other hand, the geographicbound purpose of consumer co-operation causes that consumer co-operative can be regarded as a challenging company form to manage. This is because, according to the purpose of consumer co-operation, co-operatives are obligated to 1) provide the owners with services and goods that are needed and do so at more affordable prices than their competitors do and/or 2) to operate in areas in which competitors do not want to operate (for example, because of the low profitability in certain area of business or region). Thus, consumer co-operatives have to operate very efficiently in order to execute this geographic-bound corporate purpose (e.g. they cannot withdraw from the competition during the declining stages of business). However, this efficiency cannot be achieved by any means; as the acceptance from the important regional stakeholders is the basic operational precondition and lifeline in the long run. Thereby, the central question for the survival and success of consumer co-operatives is; how should the consumer co-operatives execute its corporate purpose so it can be the best alternative to its members in the long run? This question has remained unanswered and lack empirical evidence in the previous studies on the strategic management of consumer cooperation. In more detail, scholars have not yet empirically investigated the question: How can consumer co-operatives use financial and social capital to achieve a sustained competitive advantage? It is this research gap that this doctoral dissertation aims to fulfil. This doctoral dissertation aims to answer the above questions by combining and utilizing interview data from S Group co-operatives and the central organizations in S Group´s network (overall, 33 interviews were gathered), archival material and 56 published media articles/reports. The study is based on a qualitative case study approach that is aimed at theory development, not theory verification (as the theory is considered as nascent in this field of study). Firstly, the findings of this study indicate that consumer co-operatives accumulate financial capital; 1) by making profit (to invest and grow) and 2) by utilizing a network-based organizational structure (local supply chain economies). As a result of financial capital accumulation, consumer co-operatives are able to achieve efficiency gains but also remain local. In addition, a strong financial capital base increases consumer co-operatives´ independence, competitiveness and their ability to participate in regional development (which is in accordance with their geographically bound corporate purpose). Secondly, consumer cooperatives accumulate social capital through informal networking (with important regional stakeholders), corporate social responsibility (CSR) behaviour and CSR reporting, pursuing common good, and interacting and identity sharing. As a result of social capital accumulation, consumer co-operatives are able to obtain the resources for managing; 1) institutional dependencies and 2) customer relations. By accumulating both social and financial capital through the above presented actions, consumer co-operatives are able to achieve sustained competitive advantage. Finally, this thesis provides useful ideas and new knowledge for cooperative managers concerning why and how consumer co-operatives should accumulate financial and social capital (to achieve sustained competitive advantage), while aligning with their corporate purpose.

The pricing of industrial services

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Generating competitive advantage through competitor information systems

This pro gradu –thesis discusses generating competitive advantage through competitor information systems. The structure of this thesis follows the structure of the WCA model by Alter (1996). In the WCA model, business process is influenced by three separate but connected elements: information, technology, and process participants. The main research question is how competitor information can be incorporated into or made into a tool creating competitive advantage. Research subquestions are: How does competitor information act as a part of the business process creating competitive advantage? How is a good competitor information system situated and structured in an organisation? How can management help information generate competitive advantage in the business process with participants, information, and technology? This thesis discusses each of the elements separate, but the elements are connected to each other and to competitive advantage. Information is discussed by delving into competitor information and competitor analysis. Competitive intelligence and competitor analysis requires commitment throughout the organisation, including top management, the desire to perform competitive intelligence and the desire to use the end products of that competitive intelligence. In order to be successful, systematic competitive intelligence and competitor analysis require vision, willingness to strive for the goals set, and clear strategies to proceed. Technology is discussed by taking a look into the function of the competitor information systems play and the place they occupy within an organization. In addition, there is discussion about the basic infrastructure of competitor information systems, and the problems competitor information systems can have plaguing them. In order for competitor information systems to be useful and worthy of the resources it takes to develop and maintain them, competitor information systems require on-going resource allocation and high quality information. In order for competitor information systems justify their existence business process participants need to maintain and utilize competitor information systems on all levels. Business process participants are discussed through management practices. This thesis discusses way to manage information, technology, and process participants, when the goal is to generate competitive advantage through competitor information systems. This is possible when information is treated as a resource with value, technology requires strategy in order to be successful within an organization, and process participants are an important resource. Generating competitive advantage through competitor information systems is possible when the elements of information, technology, and business process participants all align advantageously.

Transfer pricing documentation differences in Finland and China - Case company study

This Master’s Thesis deals with the topic of transfer pricing documentation in Finland and China. The goal of the research is to find what kind of differences exist in a single case company’s transfer pricing documentation when following Chinese or Finnish transfer pricing regulations. The study is carried out as a case study research. The theoretical framework consists of information from different transfer pricing topics and transfer pricing documentation regulations in China and Finland. The main research material was the case company’s transfer pricing documents with the support of open discus-sion with one of the case company’s employees. The study compared the 2009 and 2010 documents. The 2009 document was done based on the Finnish method while the 2010 document was based on the Chinese documentation principles. The conclusion made is that the content of the documents was heavily similar, while the main differences come in the way the content is presented and the level of detail used in the documents.

Strategic narratives and competitive advantage : do winners speak differently?

Concepts, models, or theories that end up shaping practices, whether those practices fall in the domains of science, technology, social movements, or business, always emerge through a change in language use. First, communities begin to talk differently, incorporating new vocabularies (Rorty, 1989), in their narratives. Whether the community’s new narratives respond to perceived anomalies or failures of the existing ones (Kuhn, 1962) or actually reveal inadequacies by addressing previously unrecognized practices (Fleck, 1979; Rorty, 1989) is less important here than the very phenomena that they introduce differences. Then, if the new language proves to be useful, for example, because it helps the community solve a problem or create a possibility that existing narratives do not, the new narrative will begin circulating more broadly throughout the community. If other communities learn of the usefulness of these new narratives, and find them sufficiently persuasive, they may be compelled to test, modify, and eventually adopt them. Of primary importance is the idea that a new concept or narrative perceived as useful is more likely to be adopted. We can expect that business concepts emerge through a similar pattern. Concepts such as “competitive advantage,” “disruption,” and the “resource based view,” now broadly known and accepted, were each at some point first introduced by a community. This community experimented with the concepts they introduced and found them useful. The concept “competitive advantage,” for example, helped researchers better explain why some firm’s outperformed others and helped practitioners more clearly understand what choices to make to improve the profit and growth prospects of their firms. The benefits of using these terms compelled other communities to consider, apply, and eventually adopt them as well. Were these terms not viewed as useful, they would not likely have been adopted. This thesis attempts to observe and anticipate new business concepts that may be emerging. It does so by seeking to observe a community of business practitioners that are using different language and appear to be more successful than a similar community of practitioners that are have not yet begun using this different language as extensively. It argues that if the community that is adopting new types of narratives is perceived as being more successful, their success will attract the attention of other communities who may then seek to adopt the same narratives. Specifically, this thesis compares the narratives used by a set of firms that are considered to be performing well (called Winners) with those of set of less-successful peers (called Losers). It does so with the aim of addressing two questions: - How do the strategic narratives that circulate within “winning” companies and their leaders differ from those circulating within “losing” companies and their leaders? - Given the answer to the first question: what new business strategy concepts are likely to emerge in the business community at large? I expected to observe “winning” companies shifting their language, abandoning an older set of narratives for newer ones. However the analysis indicates a more interesting dynamic: “winning” companies adopt the same core narratives as their “losing” peers with equal frequency yet they go beyond these. Both “winners” and “losers” seem to pursue economies of scale, customer captivity, best practices, and securing preferential access to resources with similar vigor. But “winners” seem to go further, applying three additional narratives in their pursuits of competitive advantage. They speak of coordinating what is uncoordinated, adopting what this thesis calls “exchanging the role of guest for that of host,” and “forcing a two-front battle” more frequently than their “loser” peers. Since these “winning” companies are likely perceived as being more successful, the unique narratives they use are more likely to be emulated and adopted. Understanding in what ways winners speak differently, therefore, gives us a glimpse into the possible future evolution of business concepts.

On advancing business intelligence in the electricity retail market

In recent decades, business intelligence (BI) has gained momentum in real-world practice. At the same time, business intelligence has evolved as an important research subject of Information Systems (IS) within the decision support domain. Today’s growing competitive pressure in business has led to increased needs for real-time analytics, i.e., so called real-time BI or operational BI. This is especially true with respect to the electricity production, transmission, distribution, and retail business since the law of physics determines that electricity as a commodity is nearly impossible to be stored economically, and therefore demand-supply needs to be constantly in balance. The current power sector is subject to complex changes, innovation opportunities, and technical and regulatory constraints. These range from low carbon transition, renewable energy sources (RES) development, market design to new technologies (e.g., smart metering, smart grids, electric vehicles, etc.), and new independent power producers (e.g., commercial buildings or households with rooftop solar panel installments, a.k.a. Distributed Generation). Among them, the ongoing deployment of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) has profound impacts on the electricity retail market. From the view point of BI research, the AMI is enabling real-time or near real-time analytics in the electricity retail business. Following Design Science Research (DSR) paradigm in the IS field, this research presents four aspects of BI for efficient pricing in a competitive electricity retail market: (i) visual data-mining based descriptive analytics, namely electricity consumption profiling, for pricing decision-making support; (ii) real-time BI enterprise architecture for enhancing management’s capacity on real-time decision-making; (iii) prescriptive analytics through agent-based modeling for price-responsive demand simulation; (iv) visual data-mining application for electricity distribution benchmarking. Even though this study is from the perspective of the European electricity industry, particularly focused on Finland and Estonia, the BI approaches investigated can: (i) provide managerial implications to support the utility’s pricing decision-making; (ii) add empirical knowledge to the landscape of BI research; (iii) be transferred to a wide body of practice in the power sector and BI research community.

Liquidity and Asset Pricing in the French Stock Market

This thesis investigates pricing of liquidity in the French stock market. The study covers 835 ordinary shares traded in the period of 1996-2014 on Paris Euronext. The author utilizes the Liquidity-Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (LCAPM) recently developed by Acharya and Pedersen (2005) to test whether liquidity level and risks significantly affect stock returns. Three different liquidity measures – Amihud, FHT, and PQS – are incorporated into the model to find any difference between the results they could provide. It appears that the findings largely depend on the liquidity measure used. In general the results exhibit more evidence for insignificant influence of liquidity level and risks as well as market risk on stock returns. The similar conclusion was reported earlier by Lee (2011) for several regions, including France. This finding of the thesis, however, is not consistent across all the liquidity measures. Nevertheless, the difference in the results between these measures provides new insight to the existing literature on this topic. The Amihud-based findings might indicate that market resiliency is not priced in the French stock market. At the same time the contradicting results from FHT and PQS provide some foundation for the hypothesis that one of two leftover liquidity dimensions – market depth or breadth – could significantly affect stock returns. Therefore, the thesis’ findings suggest a conjecture that different liquidity dimensions have different impacts on stock returns.

Susteinable steelmaking by process integration

Environmental issues, including global warming, have been serious challenges realized worldwide, and they have become particularly important for the iron and steel manufacturers during the last decades. Many sites has been shut down in developed countries due to environmental regulation and pollution prevention while a large number of production plants have been established in developing countries which has changed the economy of this business. Sustainable development is a concept, which today affects economic growth, environmental protection, and social progress in setting up the basis for future ecosystem. A sustainable headway may attempt to preserve natural resources, recycle and reuse materials, prevent pollution, enhance yield and increase profitability. To achieve these objectives numerous alternatives should be examined in the sustainable process design. Conventional engineering work cannot address all of these substitutes effectively and efficiently to find an optimal route of processing. A systematic framework is needed as a tool to guide designers to make decisions based on overall concepts of the system, identifying the key bottlenecks and opportunities, which lead to an optimal design and operation of the systems. Since the 1980s, researchers have made big efforts to develop tools for what today is referred to as Process Integration. Advanced mathematics has been used in simulation models to evaluate various available alternatives considering physical, economic and environmental constraints. Improvements on feed material and operation, competitive energy market, environmental restrictions and the role of Nordic steelworks as energy supplier (electricity and district heat) make a great motivation behind integration among industries toward more sustainable operation, which could increase the overall energy efficiency and decrease environmental impacts. In this study, through different steps a model is developed for primary steelmaking, with the Finnish steel sector as a reference, to evaluate future operation concepts of a steelmaking site regarding sustainability. The research started by potential study on increasing energy efficiency and carbon dioxide reduction due to integration of steelworks with chemical plants for possible utilization of available off-gases in the system as chemical products. These off-gases from blast furnace, basic oxygen furnace and coke oven furnace are mainly contained of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, hydrogen, nitrogen and partially methane (in coke oven gas) and have proportionally low heating value but are currently used as fuel within these industries. Nonlinear optimization technique is used to assess integration with methanol plant under novel blast furnace technologies and (partially) substitution of coal with other reducing agents and fuels such as heavy oil, natural gas and biomass in the system. Technical aspect of integration and its effect on blast furnace operation regardless of capital expenditure of new operational units are studied to evaluate feasibility of the idea behind the research. Later on the concept of polygeneration system added and a superstructure generated with alternative routes for off-gases pretreatment and further utilization on a polygeneration system producing electricity, district heat and methanol. (Vacuum) pressure swing adsorption, membrane technology and chemical absorption for gas separation; partial oxidation, carbon dioxide and steam methane reforming for methane gasification; gas and liquid phase methanol synthesis are the main alternative process units considered in the superstructure. Due to high degree of integration in process synthesis, and optimization techniques, equation oriented modeling is chosen as an alternative and effective strategy to previous sequential modelling for process analysis to investigate suggested superstructure. A mixed integer nonlinear programming is developed to study behavior of the integrated system under different economic and environmental scenarios. Net present value and specific carbon dioxide emission is taken to compare economic and environmental aspects of integrated system respectively for different fuel systems, alternative blast furnace reductants, implementation of new blast furnace technologies, and carbon dioxide emission penalties. Sensitivity analysis, carbon distribution and the effect of external seasonal energy demand is investigated with different optimization techniques. This tool can provide useful information concerning techno-environmental and economic aspects for decision-making and estimate optimal operational condition of current and future primary steelmaking under alternative scenarios. The results of the work have demonstrated that it is possible in the future to develop steelmaking towards more sustainable operation.