The Effects of the Breast Cancer Mammography Screening Programme in Women aged 40 to 84 years in Turku, Finland (1987-2009)

The objective of this thesis was to evaluate whether a more extensive mammography screening programme (TurkuMSP) conducted by the city of Turku, had an effect on breast cancer (BC) incidence, survival, or mortality in years 1987 to 2009. Despite the fact that some studies have suggested a 20 percent reduction in BC mortality due to mammography screening, there are findings of harm to subjects, which are claimed to negate the benefits of screening. Thus, the aims of this study are most pertinent. A total of 176 908 screening examinations were performed in 36 000 women aged 40−74 during the years 1987−1997. In all, 685 primary BCs were found in the screened women, either screen-detected (n=531) or during screening intervals (n=154). Survival and BC recurrence rate of women with screen-detected BC was compared to 184 women with clinical BCs detected among individuals who did not take part in the screening. The invitation interval, which may influence the outcome, was studied in the age group 40 to 49 by inviting those born in even calendar years annually for mammography screening and those born in odd years, triennially. In addition, BC incidence and mortality in the total female population of Turku aged 40 to 84 years was compared with the respective figures of Helsinki and the rest of Finland, both during the pre-screening era (1976-1986) and the screening era (1987-2009). The study was designed to compare women by age groups, because women aged 50 to 59 were generally screened in all of Finland, whereas only in Turku women aged 40 to 49 and 60 to 74 were screened in addition. Data regarding cancer recurrence were derived from the Finnish Cancer Registry and data on deaths were collected from Statistics Finland. In survival analyses, screened women with invasive BC had a significantly higher survival rate than the women with clinical BC. The survival benefit started to appear already during the first follow-up years and was evident in all age groups. A marginal survival extension was also seen in screened women when BC had spread to ipsilateral axillary nodes already at diagnosis. Recurrence-free survival rate after BC treatment was significantly more favorable among the screened women compared with women with BC found clinically. The screening invitation interval did not significantly influence BC mortality in the subset of women aged 40 to 49 years. There were no consistent differences in the changes of BC incidence between Turku and the comparison areas during the screening era. In Turku, the BC mortality incidence in women aged 55−69 years was significantly lower during the screening era (from 1987 to 1997) compared with the pre-screening era, whereas no such change was found in the city of Helsinki or Tampere. When comparing the changes in incidence-based BC mortality during years 1987 to 2009 in Turku to those of Helsinki and the rest of Finland, there was a suggestion of more than 20 percent lower mortality in Turku among oldest age group (75-84 years) compared with the reference residential areas, but the differences were not consistently significant. Interpretation of the study results should be made with caution because there were no random control groups, and on the other hand, the number of cases in subgroups was fairly low to yield definite conclusions. Also due to the many statistical analyses, some of the findings may be due to chance. The results are, however, suggestive for a decrease of BC mortality in the elderly age groups due to wide mammography screening. This finding needs confirmation in further studies before recommending an expansion of mammography screening to women up to the age of 74 years

Alueellisen lämmitysjärjestelmän valinta hankesuunnitteluvaiheessa

Työn lähtökohtana oli tarkastella hankesuunnitteluvaiheen lämmitysjärjestelmän valintaa ja siihen vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Työssä käytettiin Case-tarkasteluna Espoon Finnoon aluetta. Rakennusosakeyhtiö Hartela voitti Espoon Finnoon ensimmäisen (Finnoo I) asemakaava-alueen suunnittelu ja toteuttamisen ideakilpailun vuoden 2012 lopussa. Finnoo I alueelle rakennettaan noin 155 000 kerrosmetriä eli huoneistot noin 4000 asukkaalle. Alueen ra-kennukset suunnitellaan energiatehokkaaksi, sekä lämmityksessä ja sähkössä on tarkoitus käyttää uusiutuvaa energiaa. Työssä käsiteltiin alueellista lämmitysjärjestelmää ja sen vaihtoehtoetoja. Työssä tutkittiin myös aurinkosähkön käytön mahdollisuutta alueella. Ensin työssä mitoitettiin rakennusten energiankulutuksen muodostuminen alustavien suunnitelmien ja arvioitujen ominaiskulu-tusten avulla. Sen jälkeen käytiin läpi mahdolliset lämmitysjärjestelmät, joita alueella voi-daan käyttää ja arvioitiin niiden aiheuttamat elinkaarikustannukset koko laskenta-ajan jak-solla. Elinkaarilaskentaan valittiin viisi toteutuskelpoisinta järjestelmää ja niistä laskettiin elinkaarikustannukset. Lisäksi laskettiin järjestelmien hiilidioksidipäästöt vuosittain. Työn tulosten pohjalta voidaan olettaa, että kokonaisvaltaisesti yhtä ainoata parasta lämmi-tysjärjestelmää alueelle ei ole, vaan kaukolämpöä, maalämpöä ja hybridijärjestelmiä tulisi käyttää alueella sekaisin. Lisäksi alue on mahdollista rakentaa niin, että alue käyttäisi nolla-lämpöalueen periaatetta, niin että rakennukset, jotka tuottavat lämpöä liikaa myisivät ne sitä rakennuksille jotka tarvitsevat sitä. Aurinkosähkön potentiaali alueella on hyvä ja sitä käyttämällä voidaan rakennusten E-lukua ja hiilidioksidipäästöjä laskea.

Dynamic linkages of real estate and stock markets in Finland

Traditionally real estate has been seen as a good diversification tool for a stock portfolio due to the lower return and volatility characteristics of real estate investments. However, the diversification benefits of a multi-asset portfolio depend on how the different asset classes co-move in the short- and long-run. As the asset classes are affected by the same macroeconomic factors, interrelationships limiting the diversification benefits could exist. This master’s thesis aims to identify such dynamic linkages in the Finnish real estate and stock markets. The results are beneficial for portfolio optimization tasks as well as for policy-making. The real estate industry can be divided into direct and securitized markets. In this thesis the direct market is depicted by the Finnish housing market index. The securitized market is proxied by the Finnish all-sectors securitized real estate index and by a European residential Real Estate Investment Trust index. The stock market is depicted by OMX Helsinki Cap index. Several macroeconomic variables are incorporated as well. The methodology of this thesis is based on the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. The long-run dynamic linkages are studied with Johansen’s cointegration tests and the short-run interrelationships are examined with Granger-causality tests. In addition, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition analyses are used for robustness checks. The results show that long-run co-movement, or cointegration, did not exist between the housing and stock markets during the sample period. This indicates diversification benefits in the long-run. However, cointegration between the stock and securitized real estate markets was identified. This indicates limited diversification benefits and shows that the listed real estate market in Finland is not matured enough to be considered a separate market from the general stock market. Moreover, while securitized real estate was shown to cointegrate with the housing market in the long-run, the two markets are still too different in their characteristics to be used as substitutes in a multi-asset portfolio. This implies that the capital intensiveness of housing investments cannot be circumvented by investing in securitized real estate.

Social class as a factor for the construction of a musician’s identity : The Musician’s social background and identity questionnaire (MSBIQ) – a cross-sectional comparative quantitative online survey research study of music students at two higher education institutions in Finland

There is currently little empirical knowledge regarding the construction of a musician’s identity and social class. With a theoretical framework based on Bourdieu’s (1984) distinction theory, Bronfenbrenner’s (1979) theory of ecological systems, and the identity theories of Erikson (1950; 1968) and Marcia (1966), a survey called the Musician’s Social Background and Identity Questionnaire (MSBIQ) is developed to test three research hypotheses related to the construction of a musician’s identity, social class and ecological systems of development. The MSBIQ is administered to the music students at Sibelius Academy of the University of Arts Helsinki and Helsinki Metropolia University of Applied Sciences, representing the ’highbrow’ and the ’middlebrow’ samples in the field of music education in Finland. Acquired responses (N = 253) are analyzed and compared with quantitative methods including Pearson’s chi-square test, factor analysis and an adjusted analysis of variance (ANOVA). The study revealed that (1) the music students at Sibelius Academy and Metropolia construct their subjective musician’s identity differently, but (2) social class does not affect this identity construction process significantly. In turn, (3) the ecological systems of development, especially the individual’s residential location, do significantly affect the construction of a musician’s identity, as well as the age at which one starts to play one’s first musical instrument. Furthermore, a novel finding related to the structure of a musician’s identity was the tripartite model of musical identity consisting of the three dimensions of a musician’s identity: (I) ’the subjective dimension of a musician’s identity’, (II) ’the occupational dimension of a musician’s identity’ and, (III) ’the conservative-liberal dimension of a musician’s identity’. According to this finding, a musician’s identity is not a uniform, coherent entity, but a structure consisting of different elements continuously working in parallel within different dimensions. The results and limitations related to the study are discussed, as well as the objectives related to future studies using the MSBIQ to research the identity construction and social backgrounds of a musician or other performing artists.

Sähkön laadun tutkimus hypermarketin pysäköintihallin valaistustekniikkamuutoksessa

Talotekniikan alalla valaistusmuutoksissa LED-valaistus on nykypäivää. Valaistuksen käyttöominaisuudet ja hyödyt tekevät siitä perustellun valinnan myös suurissa kohteissa. Näistä laajemmista valaistuksen muutoksista ja niiden vaikutuksista sähkön laatuun ei ole yleisesti mittaustietoa. Tämä tutkimus perustui sähkön laadun käytännön mittauksiin valaistusmuutoksessa, jossa elohopeahöyrylampuilla toteutettu valaistus vaihdettiin LED-valaistukseen hypermarketin pysäköintihallissa. Valaistusjärjestelmän muutoksen vaikutusta sähkön laatuun tutkittiin vertailemalla mittaustuloksia vanhan ja uuden järjestelmän välillä. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli osoittaa miten LED-valaistukseen siirtyminen vaikuttaa sähkön laatuun valitussa tutkimuskohteessa. Tutkimuksessa tuotettu tieto on hyödynnettävissä vastaavissa kohteissa LED-valaistukseen siirryttäessä sekä valaistuksen käyttöönoton suunnittelussa ja toteuttamisessa. Tutkimuksen tuloksia voidaan hyödyntää myös kustannusten arvioimisessa valaistavan tilan sähkönkulutuksen osalta. Tutkimus toteutettiin käyttämällä triangulaatiomenetelmää eli teemahaastattelulla, kirjallisuuskatsauksella ja käytännön mittauksilla. Näiden menetelmien tulokset tukivat tutkimukselle asetettuja hypoteeseja. Valitulla tutkimusmenetelmällä saatiin selville, että LED-valaistukseen siirtymisellä ei ollut heikentäviä vaikutuksia sähkön laatuun tutkitun kohteen valaistusjärjestelmässä. Toisaalta positiivisina vaikutuksina huomioitiin muun muassa merkittävä energian säästö, virran harmonisten häiriöiden väheneminen sekä kokonaistehokertoimen parantuminen.

Analyzing and Computing the Sustainability Gains of Building Automation

Smart home implementation in residential buildings promises to optimize energy usage and save significant amount of energy simply due to a better understanding of user's energy usage profile. Apart from the energy optimisation prospects of this technology, it also aims to guarantee occupants significant amount of comfort and remote control over home appliances both at home locations and at remote places. However, smart home investment just like any other kind of investment requires an adequate measurement and justification of the economic gains it could proffer before its realization. These economic gains could differ for different occupants due to their inherent behaviours and tendencies. Thus it is pertinent to investigate the various behaviours and tendencies of occupants in different domain of interests and to measure the value of the energy savings accrued by smart home implementations in these domains of interest in order to justify such economic gains. This thesis investigates two domains of interests (the rented apartment and owned apartment) for primarily two behavioural tendencies (Finland and Germany) obtained from observation and corroborated by conducted interviews to measure the payback time and Return on Investment (ROI) of their smart home implementations. Also, similar measures are obtained for identified Australian use case. The research finding reveals that building automation for the Finnish behavioural tendencies seems to proffers a better ROI and payback time for smart home implementations.

A Bayesian Approach for Forecasting Heat Load in a District Heating System

The growing population in cities increases the energy demand and affects the environment by increasing carbon emissions. Information and communications technology solutions which enable energy optimization are needed to address this growing energy demand in cities and to reduce carbon emissions. District heating systems optimize the energy production by reusing waste energy with combined heat and power plants. Forecasting the heat load demand in residential buildings assists in optimizing energy production and consumption in a district heating system. However, the presence of a large number of factors such as weather forecast, district heating operational parameters and user behavioural parameters, make heat load forecasting a challenging task. This thesis proposes a probabilistic machine learning model using a Naive Bayes classifier, to forecast the hourly heat load demand for three residential buildings in the city of Skellefteå, Sweden over a period of winter and spring seasons. The district heating data collected from the sensors equipped at the residential buildings in Skellefteå, is utilized to build the Bayesian network to forecast the heat load demand for horizons of 1, 2, 3, 6 and 24 hours. The proposed model is validated by using four cases to study the influence of various parameters on the heat load forecast by carrying out trace driven analysis in Weka and GeNIe. Results show that current heat load consumption and outdoor temperature forecast are the two parameters with most influence on the heat load forecast. The proposed model achieves average accuracies of 81.23 % and 76.74 % for a forecast horizon of 1 hour in the three buildings for winter and spring seasons respectively. The model also achieves an average accuracy of 77.97 % for three buildings across both seasons for the forecast horizon of 1 hour by utilizing only 10 % of the training data. The results indicate that even a simple model like Naive Bayes classifier can forecast the heat load demand by utilizing less training data.

Households’ willingness to engage in demand response in the Finnish retail electricity market: an empirical study

If electricity users adjusted their consumption patterns according to time-variable electricity prices or other signals about the state of the power system, generation and network assets could be used more efficiently, and matching intermittent renewable power generation with electricity demand would be facilitated. This kind of adjustment of electricity consumption, or demand response, may be based on consumers’ decisions to shift or reduce electricity use in response to time-variable electricity prices or on the remote control of consumers’ electric appliances. However, while demand response is suggested as a solution to many issues in power systems, actual experiences from demand response programs with residential customers are mainly limited to short pilots with a small number of voluntary participants, and information about what kinds of changes consumers are willing and able to make and what motivates these changes is scarce. This doctoral dissertation contributes to the knowledge about what kinds of factors impact on residential consumers’ willingness and ability to take part in demand response. Saving opportunities calculated with actual price data from the Finnish retail electricity market are compared with the occurred supplier switching to generate a first estimate about how large savings could trigger action also in the case of demand response. Residential consumers’ motives to participate in demand response are also studied by a web-based survey with 2103 responses. Further, experiences of households with electricity consumption monitoring systems are discussed to increase knowledge about consumers’ interest in getting more information on their electricity use and adjusting their behavior based on it. Impacts of information on willingness to participate in demand response programs are also approached by a survey for experts of their willingness to engage in demand response activities. Residential customers seem ready to allow remote control of electric appliances that does not require changes in their everyday routines. Based on residents’ own activity, the electricity consuming activities that are considered shiftable are very limited. In both cases, the savings in electricity costs required to allow remote control or to engage in demand response activities are relatively high. Nonmonetary incentives appeal to fewer households.

Cleavages in contemporary Finland : a study on party-voter ties

Cleavages have been central in understanding the relationship between political parties and voters but the credibility of cleavage approach has been increasingly debated. This is because of decreasing party loyalty, fewer ideological differences between the parties and general social structural change amongst other factors. By definition, cleavages arise when social structural groups recognize their clashing interests, which are reflected in common values and attitudes, and vote for parties that are dedicated to defend the interests of the groups concerned. This study assesses relevance of cleavage approach in the Finnish context. The research problem in this study is “what kind of a cleavage structure exists in Finland at the beginning of the 21st century? Finland represents a case that has traditionally been characterized by a strong and diverse cleavage structure, notable ideological fragmentation in the electorate and an ideologically diverse party system. Nevertheless, the picture of the party-voter ties in Finland still remains incomplete with regard to a thorough analysis of cleavages. In addition, despite the vast amount of literature on cleavages in political science, studies that thoroughly analyze national cleavage structures by assessing the relationship between social structural position, values and attitudes and party choice have been rare. The research questions are approached by deploying statistical analyses, and using Finnish National Election Studies from 2003, 2007 and 2011as data. In this study, seven different social structural cleavage bases are analyzed: native language, type of residential area, occupational class, education, denomination, gender and age cohorts. Four different value/attitudinal dimensions were identified in this study: economic right and authority, regional and socioeconomic equality, sociocultural and European Union dimensions. This study shows that despite the weak overall effect of social structural positions on values and attitudes, a few rather strong connections between them were identified. The overall impact of social structural position and values and attitudes on party choice varies significantly between parties. Cleavages still exist in Finland and the cleavage structure partly reflects the old basis in the Finnish party system. The cleavage that is based on the type of residential area and reflected in regional and socioeconomic equality dimensions concerns primarily the voters of the Centre Party and the Coalition Party. The linguistic cleavage concerns mostly the voters of the Swedish People’s Party. The classic class cleavage reflected in the regional and socioeconomic equality dimension concerns in turn first and foremost the blue-collar voters of the Left Alliance and the Social Democratic Party, the agricultural entrepreneur voters of the Centre Party and higher professional and manager voters of the Coalition Party. The conflict with the most potential as a cleavage is the one based on social status (occupational class and education) and it is reflected in sociocultural and EU dimensions. It sets the voters of the True Finns against the voters of the Green League and the Coalition Party. The study underlines the challenges the old parties have met after the volatile election in 2011, which shook the cleavage structure. It also describes the complexity involved in the Finnish conflict structure and the multidimensionality in the electoral competition between the parties.

Suomen asuntomarkkinoiden kehitys vuosina 2000-2016

Kandidaatintutkielman tarkoituksena on tutkia Suomen asuntomarkkinoiden kehitystä kuluttajamarkkinanäkökulmasta 2000-luvulta alkaen. Tutkimuksen päätavoitteena on selvittää ennalta valittujen tekijöiden avulla, kuinka nämä ovat vaikuttaneet asuntomarkkinoihin. Tekijöiden avulla pystytään selvittämään kysynnän ja tarjonnan vaikutukset asuntomyyntiin. Tutkielman teoreettisen viitekehyksen muodostavat hintakehitys ja 4C-malli. Lisäksi tutkimuksessa on selvitetty talouden heilahteluiden vaikutuksia asuntomarkkinoihin sekä rakennuslupa-asioita ja asuntotuotantoa. Aineistot koostuvat kolmesta eri haastattelusta, joita tukevat aiheeseen liittyvät tilastot ja muu kirjallisuus. Haastatteluiden analyysissä etsitään tärkeimpiä vaikuttajia asuntomarkkinoilla. Tutkimuksessa selviää kaupungistumisen aiheuttaneen suuren muuttoliikenteen kaupunkien lähettyville, minne on alkanut muodostua pienempiä kaupunkikeskuksia. Kuluttajat haluavat asunnon sijaitsevan julkisten liikenneyhteyksien ja palveluiden läheisyydessä. Asuntokoot ovat vuoden 2000 jälkeen pienentyneet, jolloin asuntotuotantoa on jouduttu sopeuttamaan. Asuntolainan koron laskun myötä asuntomyynnin kasvu ei ole ollut toivotulla tasolla. Taloudellisten heilahtelujen myötä kuluttajiin on iskenyt epävarmuus, joka vähentää ihmisten halukkuutta ostaa asuntoja.