Regime-Switching in the Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries

Research has highlighted the adequacy of Markov regime-switching model to address dynamic behavior in long term stock market movements. Employing a purposed Extended regime-switching GARCH(1,1) model, this thesis further investigates the regime dependent nonlinear relationship between changes in oil price and stock market volatility in Saudi Arabia, Norway and Singapore for the period of 2001-2014. Market selection is prioritized to national dependency on oil export or import, which also rationalizes the fitness of implied bivariate volatility model. Among two regimes identified by the mean model, high stock market return-low volatility regime reflects the stable economic growth periods. The other regime characterized by low stock market return-high volatility coincides with episodes of recession and downturn. Moreover, results of volatility model provide the evidence that shocks in stock markets are less persistent during the high volatility regime. While accelerated oil price rises the stock market volatility during recessions, it reduces the stock market risk during normal growth periods in Singapore. In contrast, oil price showed no significant notable impact on stock market volatility of target oil-exporting countries in either of the volatility regime. In light to these results, international investors and policy makers could benefit the risk management in relation to oil price fluctuation.

Liber fostering Open Science and Knowledge Discovery

Presentation of Kristiina Hormia-Poutanen at the 25th Anniversary Conference of The National Repository Library of Finland, Kuopio 22th of May 2015.

Derivative hedging strategies for bitumen price risk

The objective of the study is to extend the existing hedging literature of the commodity price risks by investigating what kind of hedging strategies can be used in companies using bitumen as raw material in their production. Five different alternative swap hedging strategies in bitumen markets are empirically tested. Strategies tested are full hedge strategy, simple, conservative, and aggressive term structure strategies, and implied volatility strategy. The effectiveness of the alternative strategies is measured by excess returns compared to no hedge strategy. In addition, the downside risk of each strategy is measured with target absolute semi-deviation. Results indicate that any of the tested strategies does not outperform the no hedge strategy in terms of excess returns in all maturities. The best-performing aggressive term structure strategy succeeds to create positive excess returns only in short maturities. However, risk seems to increase hand-in-hand with the excess returns so that the best-performing strategies get the highest risk metrics as well. This implicates that the company willing to gain from favorable price movements must be ready to bear a greater risk. Thus, no superior hedging strategy over the others is found.

Customer Discovery and Customer Validation in Lean Software Startups

The traditional business models and the traditionally successful development methods that have been distinctive to the industrial era, do not satisfy the needs of modern IT companies. Due to the rapid nature of IT markets, the uncertainty of new innovations‟ success and the overwhelming competition with established companies, startups need to make quick decisions and eliminate wasted resources more effectively than ever before. There is a need for an empirical basis on which to build business models, as well as evaluate the presumptions regarding value and profit. Less than ten years ago, the Lean software development principles and practices became widely well-known in the academic circles. Those practices help startup entrepreneurs to validate their learning, test their assumptions and be more and more dynamical and flexible. What is special about today‟s software startups is that they are increasingly individual. There are quantitative research studies available regarding the details of Lean startups. Broad research with hundreds of companies presented in a few charts is informative, but a detailed study of fewer examples gives an insight to the way software entrepreneurs see Lean startup philosophy and how they describe it in their own words. This thesis focuses on Lean software startups‟ early phases, namely Customer Discovery (discovering a valuable solution to a real problem) and Customer Validation (being in a good market with a product which satisfies that market). The thesis first offers a sufficiently compact insight into the Lean software startup concept to a reader who is not previously familiar with the term. The Lean startup philosophy is then put into a real-life test, based on interviews with four Finnish Lean software startup entrepreneurs. The interviews reveal 1) whether the Lean startup philosophy is actually valuable for them, 2) how can the theory be practically implemented in real life and 3) does theoretical Lean startup knowledge compensate a lack of entrepreneurship experience. A reader gets familiar with the key elements and tools of Lean startups, as well as their mutual connections. The thesis explains why Lean startups waste less time and money than many other startups. The thesis, especially its research sections, aims at providing data and analysis simultaneously.

Probing MST1 Kinase Sequence and Structure for Rational Drug Discovery (Targeting diabetes by blocking protein-protein interactions)

Apoptotic beta cell death is an underlying cause majorly for type I and to a lesser extent for type II diabetes. Recently, MST1 kinase was identified as a key apoptotic agent in diabetic condition. In this study, I have examined MST1 and closely related kinases namely, MST2, MST3 and MST4, aiming to tackle diabetes by exploring ways to selectively block MST1 kinase activity. The first investigation was directed towards evaluating possibilities of selectively blocking the ATP binding site of MST1 kinase that is essential for the activity of the enzymes. Structure and sequence analyses of this site however revealed a near absolute conservation between the MSTs and very few changes with other kinases. The observed residue variations also displayed similar physicochemical properties making it hard for selective inhibition of the enzyme. Second, possibilities for allosteric inhibition of the enzyme were evaluated. Analysis of the recognized allosteric site also posed the same problem as the MSTs shared almost all of the same residues. The third analysis was made on the SARAH domain, which is required for the dimerization and activation of MST1 and MST2 kinases. MST3 and MST4 lack this domain, hence selectivity against these two kinases can be achieved. Other proteins with SARAH domains such as the RASSF proteins were also examined. Their interaction with the MST1 SARAH domain were evaluated to mimic their binding pattern and design a peptide inhibitor that interferes with MST1 SARAH dimerization. In molecular simulations the RASSF5 SARAH domain was shown to strongly interact with the MST1 SARAH domain and possibly preventing MST1 SARAH dimerization. Based on this, the peptidic inhibitor was suggested to be based on the sequence of RASSF5 SARAH domain. Since the MST2 kinase also interacts with RASSF5 SARAH domain, absolute selectivity might not be achieved.

Customer Discovery and Customer Validation in Lean Software Startups

The traditional business models and the traditionally successful development methods that have been distinctive to the industrial era, do not satisfy the needs of modern IT companies. Due to the rapid nature of IT markets, the uncertainty of new innovations‟ success and the overwhelming competition with established companies, startups need to make quick decisions and eliminate wasted resources more effectively than ever before. There is a need for an empirical basis on which to build business models, as well as evaluate the presumptions regarding value and profit. Less than ten years ago, the Lean software development principles and practices became widely well-known in the academic circles. Those practices help startup entrepreneurs to validate their learning, test their assumptions and be more and more dynamical and flexible. What is special about today‟s software startups is that they are increasingly individual. There are quantitative research studies available regarding the details of Lean startups. Broad research with hundreds of companies presented in a few charts is informative, but a detailed study of fewer examples gives an insight to the way software entrepreneurs see Lean startup philosophy and how they describe it in their own words. This thesis focuses on Lean software startups‟ early phases, namely Customer Discovery (discovering a valuable solution to a real problem) and Customer Validation (being in a good market with a product which satisfies that market). The thesis first offers a sufficiently compact insight into the Lean software startup concept to a reader who is not previously familiar with the term. The Lean startup philosophy is then put into a real-life test, based on interviews with four Finnish Lean software startup entrepreneurs. The interviews reveal 1) whether the Lean startup philosophy is actually valuable for them, 2) how can the theory be practically implemented in real life and 3) does theoretical Lean startup knowledge compensate a lack of entrepreneurship experience. A reader gets familiar with the key elements and tools of Lean startups, as well as their mutual connections. The thesis explains why Lean startups waste less time and money than many other startups. The thesis, especially its research sections, aims at providing data and analysis simultaneously.