Optimal trading of wind power in the short term market

The energy reform, which is happening all over the world, is caused by the common concern of the future of the humankind in our shared planet. In order to keep the effects of the global warming inside of a certain limit, the use of fossil fuels must be reduced. The marginal costs of the renewable sources, RES are quite high, since they are new technology. In order to induce the implementation of RES to the power grid and lower the marginal costs, subsidies were developed in order to make the use of RES more profitable. From the RES perspective the current market is developed to favor conventional generation, which mainly uses fossil fuels. Intermittent generation, like wind power, is penalized in the electricity market since it is intermittent and thus diffi-cult to control. Therefore, the need of regulation and thus the regulation costs to the producer differ, depending on what kind of generation market participant owns. In this thesis it is studied if there is a way for market participant, who has wind power to use the special characteristics of electricity market Nord Pool and thus reach the gap between conventional generation and the intermittent generation only by placing bids to the market. Thus, an optimal bid is introduced, which purpose is to minimize the regulation costs and thus lower the marginal costs of wind power. In order to make real life simulations in Nord Pool, a wind power forecast model was created. The simulations were done in years 2009 and 2010 by using a real wind power data provided by Hyötytuuli, market data from Nord Pool and wind forecast data provided by Finnish Meteorological Institute. The optimal bid needs probability intervals and therefore the methodology to create probability distributions is introduced in this thesis. In the end of the thesis it is shown that the optimal bidding improves the position of wind power producer in the electricity market.

Development of a measuring-control system for energy monitoring in low power

In this thesis a control system for an intelligent low voltage energy grid is presented, focusing on the control system created by using a multi-agent approach which makes it versatile and easy to expand according to the future needs. The control system is capable of forecasting the future energy consumption and decisions making on its own without human interaction when countering problems. The control system is a part of the St. Petersburg State Polytechnic University’s smart grid project that aims to create a smart grid for the university’s own use. The concept of the smart grid is interesting also for the consumers as it brings new possibilities to control own energy consumption and to save money. Smart grids makes it possible to monitor the energy consumption in real-time and to change own habits to save money. The intelligent grid also brings possibilities to integrate the renewable energy sources to the global or the local energy production much better than the current systems. Consumers can also sell their extra power to the global grid if they want.

The knapsack problem approach in solving partial hedging problems of options

En option är ett finansiellt kontrakt som ger dess innehavare en rättighet (men medför ingen skyldighet) att sälja eller köpa någonting (till exempel en aktie) till eller från säljaren av optionen till ett visst pris vid en bestämd tidpunkt i framtiden. Den som säljer optionen binder sig till att gå med på denna framtida transaktion ifall optionsinnehavaren längre fram bestämmer sig för att inlösa optionen. Säljaren av optionen åtar sig alltså en risk av att den framtida transaktion som optionsinnehavaren kan tvinga honom att göra visar sig vara ofördelaktig för honom. Frågan om hur säljaren kan skydda sig mot denna risk leder till intressanta optimeringsproblem, där målet är att hitta en optimal skyddsstrategi under vissa givna villkor. Sådana optimeringsproblem har studerats mycket inom finansiell matematik. Avhandlingen "The knapsack problem approach in solving partial hedging problems of options" inför en ytterligare synpunkt till denna diskussion: I en relativt enkel (ändlig och komplett) marknadsmodell kan nämligen vissa partiella skyddsproblem beskrivas som så kallade kappsäcksproblem. De sistnämnda är välkända inom en gren av matematik som heter operationsanalys. I avhandlingen visas hur skyddsproblem som tidigare lösts på andra sätt kan alternativt lösas med hjälp av metoder som utvecklats för kappsäcksproblem. Förfarandet tillämpas även på helt nya skyddsproblem i samband med så kallade amerikanska optioner.

Improving product profitability control in continuous IT-services

The target of the thesis is to improve product profitability control in continuous IT-services. Accurate product cost accounting and correctly allocated revenues are a necessity for good product profitability control. The focus of the study is on costs and revenues that are not traced directly to services. The thesis is focused on revenue allocations as revenue allocation methods have not been used in the case company before. In order to achieve the target revenue allocation methods, which improve the product profitability accounting and control, are presented. The research methods used in the thesis are literature review and empirical case study. The research approach is constructive. The theoretical part is composed of literature and articles that create a base for the empirical part. Internal interviews describe the current situation in the company and based on it development actions are planned. The part of the empirical case study is seen mostly in the limitations as the research is limited to concern only one department in the company. Problems in the revenue tracing are caused by customer specific services and lack of service definitions because of which the revenues are not traced correctly. Methods to allocate revenues are presented in the thesis and stand-alone revenue allocation method is the most suitable one because it is fair and it can be modified. Approximate product profitability analysis is done in the thesis and the results of it indicate that some services are profitable and some unprofitable.

Excessive functions, Appell polynomials and optimal stopping

The main topic of the thesis is optimal stopping. This is treated in two research articles. In the first article we introduce a new approach to optimal stopping of general strong Markov processes. The approach is based on the representation of excessive functions as expected suprema. We present a variety of examples, in particular, the Novikov-Shiryaev problem for Lévy processes. In the second article on optimal stopping we focus on differentiability of excessive functions of diffusions and apply these results to study the validity of the principle of smooth fit. As an example we discuss optimal stopping of sticky Brownian motion. The third research article offers a survey like discussion on Appell polynomials. The crucial role of Appell polynomials in optimal stopping of Lévy processes was noticed by Novikov and Shiryaev. They described the optimal rule in a large class of problems via these polynomials. We exploit the probabilistic approach to Appell polynomials and show that many classical results are obtained with ease in this framework. In the fourth article we derive a new relationship between the generalized Bernoulli polynomials and the generalized Euler polynomials.

Flexible multibody dynamics and intelligent control of a hydraulically driven hybrid redundant robot machine

The assembly and maintenance of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) vacuum vessel (VV) is highly challenging since the tasks performed by the robot involve welding, material handling, and machine cutting from inside the VV. The VV is made of stainless steel, which has poor machinability and tends to work harden very rapidly, and all the machining operations need to be carried out from inside of the ITER VV. A general industrial robot cannot be used due to its poor stiffness in the heavy duty machining process, and this will cause many problems, such as poor surface quality, tool damage, low accuracy. Therefore, one of the most suitable options should be a light weight mobile robot which is able to move around inside of the VV and perform different machining tasks by replacing different cutting tools. Reducing the mass of the robot manipulators offers many advantages: reduced material costs, reduced power consumption, the possibility of using smaller actuators, and a higher payload-to-robot weight ratio. Offsetting these advantages, the lighter weight robot is more flexible, which makes it more difficult to control. To achieve good machining surface quality, the tracking of the end effector must be accurate, and an accurate model for a more flexible robot must be constructed. This thesis studies the dynamics and control of a 10 degree-of-freedom (DOF) redundant hybrid robot (4-DOF serial mechanism and 6-DOF 6-UPS hexapod parallel mechanisms) hydraulically driven with flexible rods under the influence of machining forces. Firstly, the flexibility of the bodies is described using the floating frame of reference method (FFRF). A finite element model (FEM) provided the Craig-Bampton (CB) modes needed for the FFRF. A dynamic model of the system of six closed loop mechanisms was assembled using the constrained Lagrange equations and the Lagrange multiplier method. Subsequently, the reaction forces between the parallel and serial parts were used to study the dynamics of the serial robot. A PID control based on position predictions was implemented independently to control the hydraulic cylinders of the robot. Secondly, in machining, to achieve greater end effector trajectory tracking accuracy for surface quality, a robust control of the actuators for the flexible link has to be deduced. This thesis investigates the intelligent control of a hydraulically driven parallel robot part based on the dynamic model and two schemes of intelligent control for a hydraulically driven parallel mechanism based on the dynamic model: (1) a fuzzy-PID self-tuning controller composed of the conventional PID control and with fuzzy logic, and (2) adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system-PID (ANFIS-PID) self-tuning of the gains of the PID controller, which are implemented independently to control each hydraulic cylinder of the parallel mechanism based on rod length predictions. The serial component of the hybrid robot can be analyzed using the equilibrium of reaction forces at the universal joint connections of the hexa-element. To achieve precise positional control of the end effector for maximum precision machining, the hydraulic cylinder should be controlled to hold the hexa-element. Thirdly, a finite element approach of multibody systems using the Special Euclidean group SE(3) framework is presented for a parallel mechanism with flexible piston rods under the influence of machining forces. The flexibility of the bodies is described using the nonlinear interpolation method with an exponential map. The equations of motion take the form of a differential algebraic equation on a Lie group, which is solved using a Lie group time integration scheme. The method relies on the local description of motions, so that it provides a singularity-free formulation, and no parameterization of the nodal variables needs to be introduced. The flexible slider constraint is formulated using a Lie group and used for modeling a flexible rod sliding inside a cylinder. The dynamic model of the system of six closed loop mechanisms was assembled using Hamilton’s principle and the Lagrange multiplier method. A linearized hydraulic control system based on rod length predictions was implemented independently to control the hydraulic cylinders. Consequently, the results of the simulations demonstrating the behavior of the robot machine are presented for each case study. In conclusion, this thesis studies the dynamic analysis of a special hybrid (serialparallel) robot for the above-mentioned special task involving the ITER and investigates different control algorithms that can significantly improve machining performance. These analyses and results provide valuable insight into the design and control of the parallel robot with flexible rods.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Development of a New Welding Product Quality Control and Management System Model for China

The Chinese welding industry is growing every year due to rapid development of the Chinese economy. Increasingly, companies around the world are looking to use Chinese enterprises as their cooperation partners. However, the Chinese welding industry also has its weaknesses, such as relatively low quality and weak management. A modern, advanced welding management system appropriate for local socio-economic conditions is required to enable Chinese enterprises to enhance further their business development. The thesis researches the design and implementation of a new welding quality management system for China. This new system is called ‗welding production quality control management model in China‘ (WQMC). Constructed on the basis of analysis of a survey and in-company interviews, the welding management system comprises the following different elements and perspectives: a ‗Localized congenital existing problem resolution strategies‘ (LCEPRS) database, a ‗human factor designed training system‘ (HFDT) training strategy, the theory of modular design, ISO 3834 requirements, total welding management (TWM), and lean manufacturing (LEAN) theory. The methods used in the research are literature review, questionnaires, interviews, and the author‘s model design experiences and observations, i.e. the approach is primarily qualitative and phenomenological. The thesis describes the design and implementation of a HFDT strategy in Chinese welding companies. Such training is an effective way to increase employees‘ awareness of quality and issues associated with quality assurance. The study identified widely existing problems in the Chinese welding industry and constructed a LCEPRS database that can be used in efforts to mitigate and avoid common problems. The work uses the theory of modular design, TWM and LEAN as tools for the implementation of the WQMC system.