Prognosis of after spot volumes at the Scandinavian electricity market

The Thesis is dedicated to development of an operative tool to support decision making in after spot trading on the Nordic electricity market. The basics of the Nordic electricity market, trading mechanisms on the spot and after spot markets are presented in the Thesis. Mathematical equations that describe electricity balance condition in the power system are offered. The main driving factors that impact deviation of actual electricity balance from the scheduled one (object) in the power system have been explored and mathematically defined. The behavioral model of the object and principal trends in change of state of the object under an impact of the driving factors are determined with the help of regression analysis made in Microsoft Office Excel. The behavioral model gives an indication for the total regulation volume (Elbas trades volume, volume of regulation market, balance power) for a certain hour that serves as the base input in estimating prices on the after spot markets. Proposals for development of methodologies of forecasting the after spot electricity prices are offered.

Calculation of the critical crack size for cold form rectangular hollow section tube (CRHS) under bending load at -40º C temperature

To predict the capacity of the structure or the point which is followed by instability, calculation of the critical crack size is important. Structures usually contain several cracks but not necessarily all of these cracks lead to failure or reach the critical size. So, defining the harmful cracks or the crack size which is the most leading one to failure provides criteria for structure’s capacity at elevated temperature. The scope of this thesis was to calculate fracture parameters like stress intensity factor, the J integral and plastic and ultimate capacity of the structure to estimate critical crack size for this specific structure. Several three dimensional (3D) simulations using finite element method by Ansys program and boundary element method by Frank 3D program were carried out to calculate fracture parameters and results with the aid of laboratory tests (loaddisplacement curve, the J resistance curve and yield or ultimate stress) leaded to extract critical size of the crack. Two types of the fracture which is usually affected by temperature, Elastic and Elasti-Plastic fractures were simulated by performing several linear elastic and nonlinear elastic analyses. Geometry details of the weldment; flank angle and toe radius were also studied independently to estimate the location of crack initiation and simulate stress field in early stages of crack extension in structure. In this work also overview of the structure’s capacity in room temperature (20 ºC) was studied. Comparison of the results in different temperature (20 ºC and -40 ºC) provides a threshold of the structure’s behavior within the defined range.

A comparison of electricity spot prices simulation using ARMA-GARCH and mean-reverting models

The aim of this work is to compare two families of mathematical models for their respective capability to capture the statistical properties of real electricity spot market time series. The first model family is ARMA-GARCH models and the second model family is mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models. These two models have been applied to two price series of Nordic Nord Pool spot market for electricity namely to the System prices and to the DenmarkW prices. The parameters of both models were calibrated from the real time series. After carrying out simulation with optimal models from both families we conclude that neither ARMA-GARCH models, nor conventional mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models, even when calibrated optimally with real electricity spot market price or return series, capture the statistical characteristics of the real series. But in the case of less spiky behavior (System prices), the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model could be seen to partially succeeded in this task.

Analysis of Patterns in Electricity Spot Market Time Series

Due to its non-storability, electricity must be produced at the same time that it is consumed, as a result prices are determined on an hourly basis and thus analysis becomes more challenging. Moreover, the seasonal fluctuations in demand and supply lead to a seasonal behavior of electricity spot prices. The purpose of this thesis is to seek and remove all causal effects from electricity spot prices and remain with pure prices for modeling purposes. To achieve this we use Qlucore Omics Explorer (QOE) for the visualization and the exploration of the data set and Time Series Decomposition method to estimate and extract the deterministic components from the series. To obtain the target series we use regression based on the background variables (water reservoir and temperature). The result obtained is three price series (for Sweden, Norway and System prices) with no apparent pattern.

A cell spot microarray method for high-throughput biology

High-throughput screening of cellular effects of RNA interference (RNAi) libraries is now being increasingly applied to explore the role of genes in specific cell biological processes and disease states. However, the technology is still limited to specialty laboratories, due to the requirements for robotic infrastructure, access to expensive reagent libraries, expertise in high-throughput screening assay development, standardization, data analysis and applications. In the future, alternative screening platforms will be required to expand functional large-scale experiments to include more RNAi constructs, allow combinatorial loss-of-function analyses (e.g. genegene or gene-drug interaction), gain-of-function screens, multi-parametric phenotypic readouts or comparative analysis of many different cell types. Such comprehensive perturbation of gene networks in cells will require a major increase in the flexibility of the screening platforms, throughput and reduction of costs. As an alternative for the conventional multi-well based high-throughput screening -platforms, here the development of a novel cell spot microarray method for production of high density siRNA reverse transfection arrays is described. The cell spot microarray platform is distinguished from the majority of other transfection cell microarray techniques by the spatially confined array layout that allow highly parallel screening of large-scale RNAi reagent libraries with assays otherwise difficult or not applicable to high-throughput screening. This study depicts the development of the cell spot microarray method along with biological application examples of high-content immunofluorescence and phenotype based cancer cell biological analyses focusing on the regulation of prostate cancer cell growth, maintenance of genomic integrity in breast cancer cells, and functional analysis of integrin protein-protein interactions in situ.

Spectrometrical Monitoring of Laser Sintering Process of Ceramic Material

This thesis is done as a part of project called FuncMama that is a project between Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT), Oulu University (OY), Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) and Finnish industrial partners. Main goal of the project is to manufacture electric and mechanical components from mixed materials using laser sintering. Aim of this study was to create laser sintered pieces from ceramic material and monitor the sintering event by using spectrometer. Spectrometer is a device which is capable to record intensity of different wavelengths in relation with time. In this study the monitoring of laser sintering was captured with the equipment which consists of Ocean Optics spectrometer, optical fiber and optical lens (detector head). Light from the sintering process hit first to the lens system which guides the light in to the optical fibre. Optical fibre transmits the light from the sintering process to the spectrometer where wavelengths intensity level information is detected. The optical lens of the spectrometer was rigidly set and did not move along with the laser beam. Data which was collected with spectrometer from the laser sintering process was converted with Excel spreadsheet program for result’s evaluation. Laser equipment used was IPG Photonics pulse fibre laser. Laser parameters were kept mainly constant during experimental part and only sintering speed was changed. That way it was possible to find differences in the monitoring results without fear of too many parameters mixing together and affecting to the conclusions. Parts which were sintered had one layer and size of 5 x 5 mm. Material was CT2000 – tape manufactured by Heraeus which was later on post processed to powder. Monitoring of different sintering speeds was tested by using CT2000 reference powder. Moreover tests how different materials effect to the process monitoring were done by adding foreign powder Du Pont 951 which had suffered in re-grinding and which was more reactive than CT2000. By adding foreign material it simulates situation where two materials are accidently mixed together and it was studied if that can be seen with the spectrometer. It was concluded in this study that with the spectrometer it is possible to detect changes between different laser sintering speeds. When the sintering speed is lowered the intensity level of light is higher from the process. This is a result of higher temperature at the sintering spot and that can be noticed with the spectrometer. That indicates it could be possible to use spectrometer as a tool for process observation and support the idea of having system that can help setting up the process parameter window. Also important conclusion was how well the adding of foreign material could be seen with the spectrometer. When second material was added a significant intensity level raise could be noticed in that part where foreign material was mixed. That indicates it is possible to see if there are any variations in the material or if there are more materials mixed together. Spectrometric monitoring of laser sintering could be useful tool for process window observation and temperature controlling of the sintering process. For example if the process window for specific material is experimentally determined to get wanted properties and satisfying sintering speed. It is possible if the data is constantly recorded that the results can show faults in the part texture between layers. Changes between the monitoring data and the experimentally determined values can then indicate changes in the material being generated by material faults or by wrong process parameters. The results of this study show that spectrometer could be one possible tool for monitoring. But to get in that point where this all can be made possible much more researching is needed.

Military crisis management in the next decade (2020-2030) : inducing consent or relying on compliance?

The most outstanding conceptual challenge of modern crisis management is the principle of consent. It is not a problem only at the operational level - it challenges the entire decision-making structures of crisis management operations. In post-cold war times and especially in the 21st century, there has been a transition from peacekeeping with limited size and scope towards large and complex peace operations. This shift has presented peace operations with a dilemma. How to balance between maintaining consent for peace operations, whilst being able to use military force to coerce those attempting to wreck peace processes? To address such a dilemma, this research aims to promote understanding, on what can be achieved by military crisis management operations (peace support operations) in the next decade. The research concentrates on the focal research question: Should military components induce consent or rely on the compliance of conflicting parties in crisis management operations of the next decade (2020 – 2030)? The focus is on military – political strategic level considerations, and especially on the time before political decisions to commit to a crisis management operation. This study does not focus on which actor or organisation should intervene. The framework of this thesis derives from the so called ‘peacebuilding space’, the scope of peace operations and spoiler theory. Feasibility of both peace enforcement and peacekeeping in countering future risk conditions are analysed in this framework. This future-orientated qualitative research uses the Delphi-method with a panel of national and international experts. Citation analysis supports identification of relevant reference material, which consists of contemporary literature, the Delphi-questionnaires and interviews. The research process followed three main stages. In the first stage, plausible future scenarios and risk conditions were identified with the Delphi-panel. In the second stage, operating environments for peace support operations were described and consequent hypotheses formulated. In the third stage, these hypotheses were tested on the Delphi-panel. The Delphi-panel is sufficiently wide and diverse to produce plausible yet different insights. The research design utilised specifically military crisis management and peace operations theories. This produced various and relevant normative considerations. Therefore, one may argue that this research; which is based on accepted contemporary theory, hypotheses derived thereof and utilising an expert panel, contributes to the realm of peace support operations. This research finds that some degree of peace enforcement will be feasible and necessary in at least the following risk conditions: failed governance; potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; vulnerability of strategic chokepoints and infrastructures in ungoverned spaces; as well as in territorial and extra-territorial border disputes. In addition, some form of peace enforcement is probably necessary in risk conditions pertaining to: extremism of marginalised groups; potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories; and interstate rivalry. Furthermore, this research finds that peacekeeping measures will be feasible and necessary in at least risk conditions pertaining to: potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; uncontrolled migration; consequences from environmental catastrophes or changes; territorial and extra-territorial border disputes; and potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories. These findings are all subject to both generic and case specific preconditions that must exist for a peace support operation. Some deductions could be derived from the research findings. Although some risk conditions may appear illogical, understanding the underlying logic of a conflict is fundamental to understanding transition in crisis management. Practitioners of crisis management should possess cognizance of such transition. They must understand how transition should occur from threat to safety, from conflict to stability – and so forth. Understanding transition is imperative for managing the dynamic evolution of preconditions, which begins at the outset of a peace support operation. Furthermore, it is pertinent that spoilers are defined from a peace process point of view. If spoilers are defined otherwise, it changes the nature of an operation towards war, where the logic is breaking the will of an enemy - and surrender. In peace support operations, the logic is different: actions towards spoilers are intended to cause transition towards consent - not defeat. Notwithstanding future developments, history continues to provide strategic education. However, the distinction is that the risk conditions occur in novel futures. Hence, lessons learned from the past should be fitted to the case at hand. This research shows compelling evidence that swaying between intervention optimism and pessimism is not substantiated. Both peace enforcement and peacekeeping are sine qua non for successful military crisis management in the next decade.

Russia, China, India Foresight for Small and Medium size Enterprises in Uusimaa : Changes forecast in the Russian, Chinese and Indian operating environments from the viewpoint of small and middle-sized enterprises in Uusimaa

The report describes those factors of the future that are related to the growth and needs of Russia, China, and India and that may provide significant internationalisation potential for Uusimaa companies. The report examines the emerging trends and market-entry challenges for each country separately. Additionally, it evaluates the training needs of Uusimaa companies in terms of the current offerings available for education on topics related to Russia, China, and India. The report was created via the Delphi method: experts were interviewed, and both Trendwiki material and the latest literature were used to create a summary of experts’ views, statements, and reasons behind recent developments. This summary of views was sent back to the experts with the objective of reaching consensus synthesising the differing views or, at least, of providing argumentation for the various alternative lines of development. In addition to a number of outside experts and business leaders, all heads of Finpro’s Finland Trade Centers participated in the initial interviews. The summary was commented upon by all Finpro consultants and analysts for Russia, China, and India, with each focusing on his or her own area of expertise. The literature used consisted of reports, listed for each country, and an extensive selection of the most recent newspaper articles. The report was created in January-April 2010. On 22 April 2010 its results were reviewed at the final report presentation in cooperation with the Uusimaa ELY Centre.

Modelling Long-Run Relationship between Spot and Future Prices of Different Commodities

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there exists any kind of relationship between the spot and future prices of the different commodities or not. Commodities like cocoa, coffee, crude oil, gold, natural gas and silver are considered from January 3, 2000 to December 31, 2012. For this purpose, ADF test and KPSS test are used in testing the stationarity whereas Johansen Cointegration test is used in testing the long-run relationship. Johansen co-integration test exhibits that there at least 5 co-integrating pairs out of 6 except crude oil. Moreover, the result of Granger Causality supports the fact that if two or more than two time series tend to be co-integrated there exists either uni-directional or bi-directional relationship. However, our results reveled that although there exists the co-integration between the variable, one might not granger causes another .VAR model is also used to measure the proportion of effects. These findings will help the derivative market and arbitragers in developing the strategies to gain the maximum profit in the financial market.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Quantitative analysis of nodal prices in the New Zealand Electricity Spot Market

Time series of hourly electricity spot prices have peculiar properties. Electricity is by its nature difficult to store and has to be available on demand. There are many reasons for wanting to understand correlations in price movements, e.g. risk management purposes. The entire analysis carried out in this thesis has been applied to the New Zealand nodal electricity prices: offer prices (from 29 May 2002 to 31 March 2009) and final prices (from 1 January 1999 to 31 March 2009). In this paper, such natural factors as location of the node and generation type in the node that effects the correlation between nodal prices have been reviewed. It was noticed that the geographical factor affects the correlation between nodes more than others. Therefore, the visualisation of correlated nodes was done. However, for the offer prices the clear separation of correlated and not correlated nodes was not obtained. Finally, it was concluded that location factor most strongly affects correlation of electricity nodal prices; problems in visualisation probably associated with power losses when the power is transmitted over long distance.