Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models

This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.

Lectio praecursoria: Environmental policy evaluation concepts exemplified in the context of the European Unions strategy for better regulation

Lectio praecursoria 3.2.2006 Tampereen yliopisto

IN DUBIO PRO NATURA? A Philosophical Analysis of the Precautionary Principle in Environmental and Health Risk Governance

In this book, I apply a philosophical approach to study the precautionary principle in environmental (and health) risk decision-making. The principle says that unacceptable environmental and health risks should be anticipated, and they ought to be forestalled before the damage comes to fruition even if scientific understanding of the risks is inadequate. The study consists of introductory chapters, summary and seven original publications which aim at explicating the principle, critically analysing the debate on the principle, and constructing a basis for the well-founded use of the principle. Papers I-V present the main thesis of this research. In the two last papers, the discussion is widened to new directions. The starting question is how well the currently embraced precautionary principle stands up to critical philosophical scrutiny. The approach employed is analytical: mainly conceptual, argumentative and ethical. The study draws upon Anglo-American style philosophy on the one hand, and upon sources of law as well as concrete cases and decision-making practices at the European Union level and in its member countries on the other. The framework is environmental (and health) risk governance, including the related law and policy. The main thesis of this study is that the debate on the precautionary principle needs to be shifted from the question of whether the principle (or its weak or strong interpretation) is well-grounded in general to questions about the theoretical plausibility and ethical and socio-political justifiability of specific understandings of the principle. The real picture of the precautionary principle is more complex than that found (i.e. presumed) in much of the current academic, political and public debate surrounding it. While certain presumptions and interpretations of the principle are found to be sound, others are theoretically flawed or include serious practical problems. The analysis discloses conceptual and ethical presumptions and elementary understandings of the precautionary principle, critically assesses current practices invoked in the name of the precautionary principle and public participation, and seeks to build bridges between precaution, engagement and philosophical ethics. Hence, it is intended to provide a sound basis upon which subsequent academic scrutiny can build.

Spatiotemporal Aspects of Environmental Monitoring in the Complex Coastal Region of Southwest Finland

The management and conservation of coastal waters in the Baltic is challenged by a number of complex environmental problems, including eutrophication and habitat degradation. Demands for a more holistic, integrated and adaptive framework of ecosystem-based management emphasize the importance of appropriate information on the status and changes of the aquatic ecosystems. The thesis focuses on the spatiotemporal aspects of environmental monitoring in the extensive and geomorphologically complex coastal region of SW Finland, where the acquisition of spatially and temporally representative monitoring data is inherently challenging. Furthermore, the region is subject to multiple human interests and uses. A holistic geographical approach is emphasized, as it is ultimately the physical conditions that set the frame for any human activity. Characteristics of the coastal environment were examined using water quality data from the database of the Finnish environmental administration and Landsat TM/ETM+ images. A basic feature of the complex aquatic environment in the Archipelago Sea is its high spatial and temporal variability; this foregrounds the importance of geographical information as a basis of environmental assessments. While evidence of a consistent water turbidity pattern was observed, the coastal hydrodynamic realm is also characterized by high spatial and temporal variability. It is therefore also crucial to consider the spatial and temporal representativeness of field monitoring data. Remote sensing may facilitate evaluation of hydrodynamic conditions in the coastal region and the spatial extrapolation of in situ data despite their restrictions. Additionally, remotely sensed images can be used in the mapping of many of those coastal habitats that need to be considered in environmental management. With regard to surface water monitoring, only a small fraction of the currently available data stored in the Hertta-PIVET register can be used effectively in scientific studies and environmental assessments. Long-term consistent data collection from established sampling stations should be emphasized but research-type seasonal assessments producing abundant data should also be encouraged. Thus a more comprehensive coordination of field work efforts is called for. The integration of remote sensing and various field measurement techniques would be especially useful in the complex coastal waters. The integration and development of monitoring system in Finnish coastal areas also requires further scientific assesement of monitoring practices. A holistic approach to the gathering and management of environmental monitoring data could be a cost-effective way of serving a multitude of information needs, and would fit the holistic, ecosystem-based management regimes that are currently being strongly promoted in Europe.