Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-Making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Reflexive Space. A Constructionist Model of the Russian Reflexive Marker

This study examines the structure of the Russian Reflexive Marker ( ся/-сь) and offers a usage-based model building on Construction Grammar and a probabilistic view of linguistic structure. Traditionally, reflexive verbs are accounted for relative to non-reflexive verbs. These accounts assume that linguistic structures emerge as pairs. Furthermore, these accounts assume directionality where the semantics and structure of a reflexive verb can be derived from the non-reflexive verb. However, this directionality does not necessarily hold diachronically. Additionally, the semantics and the patterns associated with a particular reflexive verb are not always shared with the non-reflexive verb. Thus, a model is proposed that can accommodate the traditional pairs as well as for the possible deviations without postulating different systems. A random sample of 2000 instances marked with the Reflexive Marker was extracted from the Russian National Corpus and the sample used in this study contains 819 unique reflexive verbs. This study moves away from the traditional pair account and introduces the concept of Neighbor Verb. A neighbor verb exists for a reflexive verb if they share the same phonological form excluding the Reflexive Marker. It is claimed here that the Reflexive Marker constitutes a system in Russian and the relation between the reflexive and neighbor verbs constitutes a cross-paradigmatic relation. Furthermore, the relation between the reflexive and the neighbor verb is argued to be of symbolic connectivity rather than directionality. Effectively, the relation holding between particular instantiations can vary. The theoretical basis of the present study builds on this assumption. Several new variables are examined in order to systematically model variability of this symbolic connectivity, specifically the degree and strength of connectivity between items. In usage-based models, the lexicon does not constitute an unstructured list of items. Instead, items are assumed to be interconnected in a network. This interconnectedness is defined as Neighborhood in this study. Additionally, each verb carves its own niche within the Neighborhood and this interconnectedness is modeled through rhyme verbs constituting the degree of connectivity of a particular verb in the lexicon. The second component of the degree of connectivity concerns the status of a particular verb relative to its rhyme verbs. The connectivity within the neighborhood of a particular verb varies and this variability is quantified by using the Levenshtein distance. The second property of the lexical network is the strength of connectivity between items. Frequency of use has been one of the primary variables in functional linguistics used to probe this. In addition, a new variable called Constructional Entropy is introduced in this study building on information theory. It is a quantification of the amount of information carried by a particular reflexive verb in one or more argument constructions. The results of the lexical connectivity indicate that the reflexive verbs have statistically greater neighborhood distances than the neighbor verbs. This distributional property can be used to motivate the traditional observation that the reflexive verbs tend to have idiosyncratic properties. A set of argument constructions, generalizations over usage patterns, are proposed for the reflexive verbs in this study. In addition to the variables associated with the lexical connectivity, a number of variables proposed in the literature are explored and used as predictors in the model. The second part of this study introduces the use of a machine learning algorithm called Random Forests. The performance of the model indicates that it is capable, up to a degree, of disambiguating the proposed argument construction types of the Russian Reflexive Marker. Additionally, a global ranking of the predictors used in the model is offered. Finally, most construction grammars assume that argument construction form a network structure. A new method is proposed that establishes generalization over the argument constructions referred to as Linking Construction. In sum, this study explores the structural properties of the Russian Reflexive Marker and a new model is set forth that can accommodate both the traditional pairs and potential deviations from it in a principled manner.

Fast pyrolysis in circulating fluidized bed: feasibility study

Today the limitedness of fossil fuel resources is clearly realized. For this reason there is a strong focus throughout the world on shifting from fossil fuel based energy system to biofuel based energy system. In this respect Finland with its proven excellent forestry capabilities has a great potential to accomplish this goal. It is regarded that one of the most efficient ways of wood biomass utilization is to use it as a feedstock for fast pyrolysis process. By means of this process solid biomass is converted into liquid fuel called bio-oil which can be burnt at power plants, used for hydrogen generation through a catalytic steam reforming process and as a source of valuable chemical compounds. Nowadays different configurations of this process have found their applications in several pilot plants worldwide. However the circulating fluidized bed configuration is regarded as the one with the highest potential to be commercialized. In the current Master’s Thesis a feasibility study of circulating fluidized bed fast pyrolysis process utilizing Scots pine logs as a raw material was conducted. The production capacity of the process is 100 000 tonne/year of bio-oil. The feasibility study is divided into two phases: a process design phase and economic feasibility analysis phase. The process design phase consists of mass and heat balance calculations, equipment sizing, estimation of pressure drops in the pipelines and development of plant layout. This phase resulted in creation of process flow diagrams, equipment list and Microsoft Excel spreadsheet that calculates the process mass and heat balances depending on the bio-oil production capacity which can be set by a user. These documents are presented in the current report as appendices. In the economic feasibility analysis phase there were at first calculated investment and operating costs of the process. Then using these costs there was calculated the price of bio-oil which is required to reach the values of internal rate of return of 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50%.

Konstruktiivisen mallin ja suunnittelumallin käyttö aikakauslehtialalla tapahtuvassa murroksessa

Aikakauslehtialalla on vallalla ollut jo useamman vuoden ajan median digitaalinen murros, jonka vuoksi lehtitalot ovat joutuneet muuttamaan käytössä olleita toimintatapojaan ja kehittämään uusiin jakelukanaviin sisältöä pysyäkseen kovassa kilpailussa mukana. Tässä pro gradussa esitetään innovatiivisen konstruktiivisen mallin ja perinteisemmän liiketoimintasuunnitelmaa korostavan suunnittelumallin yhtäläisyyksiä ja eroavuuksia. Tutkielman empiirisessä osassa vertaillaan mallien käytettävyyttä aikakauslehtialalla keskittymällä malleille ominaisiin neljään eri dimensioon ja dimensioista muodostettuihin teemoihin aikakauslehtialalle sovellettuina. Tutkielmassa esitellään mallien toimintalogiikoita sekä prosessikaaviot, jotka kuvaavat uuden idean kehitysprosessia yrityksessä. Tutkimusote on kvalitatiivinen ja haastatteluaineisto on toteutettu puolistrukturoidulla haastattelumenetelmällä. Tuloksien avulla voidaan todeta, että aikakauslehtialalla tapahtuva murros on jo muuttanut toimittajien arkipäiväistä työnkuvaa. Toimittajien oman ammattitaidon ja osaamisen jatkuva kehittäminen sekä uusiin jakelukanaviin tutustuminen ja sinne sisällön tuottaminen ovat haasteita, johon he joutuvat sopeutumaan jatkossa. Ammattitaidon ylläpitoa sekä oikeanlaisen asiakastutkimuksen hyödyntämistä voidaankin pitää malleja yhdistävinä tekijöinä. Malleja erottavia tekijöitä ovat vuorostaan innovatiivisten ideoiden läpivienti sekä riskinottokyky.

Characterisation of waste for combustion : with special reference to the role of zinc

Waste combustion has gone from being a volume reducing discarding-method to an energy recovery process for unwanted material that cannot be reused or recycled. Different fractions of waste are used as fuel today, such as; municipal solid waste, refuse derived fuel, and solid recovered fuel. Furthermore, industrial waste, normally a mixture between commercial waste and building and demolition waste, is common, either as separate fuels or mixed with, for example, municipal solid waste. Compared to fossil or biomass fuels, waste mixtures are extremely heterogeneous, making it a complicated fuel. Differences in calorific values, ash content, moisture content, and changing levels of elements, such as Cl and alkali metals, are common in waste fuel. Moreover, waste contains much higher levels of troublesome trace elements, such as Zn, which is thought to accelerate a corrosion process. Varying fuel quality can be strenuous on the boiler system and may cause fouling and corrosion of heat exchanger surfaces. This thesis examines waste fuels and waste combustion from different angles, with the objective of giving a better understanding of waste as an important fuel in today’s fuel economy. Several chemical characterisation campaigns of waste fuels over longer time periods (10-12 months) was used to determine the fossil content of Swedish waste fuels, to investigate possible seasonal variations, and to study the presence of Zn in waste. Data from the characterisation campaigns were used for thermodynamic equilibrium calculations to follow trends and determine the effect of changing concentrations of various elements. The thesis also includes a study of the thermal behaviour of Zn and a full—scale study of how the bed temperature affects the volatilisation of alkali metals and Zn from the fuel. As mixed waste fuel contains considerable amounts of fresh biomass, such as wood, food waste, paper etc. it would be wrong to classify it as a fossil fuel. When Sweden introduced waste combustion as a part of the European Union emission trading system in the beginning of 2013 there was a need for combustion plants to find a usable and reliable method to determine the fossil content. Four different methods were studied in full-scale of seven combustion plants; 14Canalysis of solid waste, 14C-analysis of flue gas, sorting analysis followed by calculations, and a patented balance method that is using a software program to calculate the fossil content based on parameters from the plant. The study showed that approximately one third of the coal in Swedish waste mixtures has fossil origins and presented the plants with information about the four different methods and their advantages and disadvantages. Characterisation campaigns also showed that industrial waste contain higher levels of trace elements, such as Zn. The content of Zn in Swedish waste fuels was determined to be approximately 800 mg kg-1 on average, based on 42 samples of solid waste from seven different plants with varying mixtures between municipal solid waste and industrial waste. A review study of the occurrence of Zn in fuels confirmed that the highest amounts of Zn are present in waste fuels rather than in fossil or biomass fuels. In tires, Zn is used as a vulcanizing agent and can reach concentration values of 9600-16800 mg kg-1. Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment is the second Zn-richest fuel and even though on average Zn content is around 4000 mg kg-1, the values of over 19000 mg kg-1 were also reported. The increased amounts of Zn, 3000-4000 mg kg-1, are also found in municipal solid waste, sludge with over 2000 mg kg-1 on average (some exceptions up to 49000 mg kg-1), and other waste derived fuels (over 1000 mg kg-1). Zn is also found in fossil fuels. In coal, the average level of Zn is 100 mg kg-1, the higher amount of Zn was only reported for oil shale with values between 20-2680 mg kg-1. The content of Zn in biomass is basically determined by its natural occurrence and it is typically 10-100 mg kg-1. The thermal behaviour of Zn is of importance to understand the possible reactions taking place in the boiler. By using thermal analysis three common Zn-compounds were studied (ZnCl2, ZnSO4, and ZnO) and compared to phase diagrams produced with thermodynamic equilibrium calculations. The results of the study suggest that ZnCl2(s/l) cannot exist readily in the boiler due to its volatility at high temperatures and its conversion to ZnO in oxidising conditions. Also, ZnSO4 decomposes around 680°C, while ZnO is relatively stable in the temperature range prevailing in the boiler. Furthermore, by exposing ZnO to HCl in a hot environment (240-330°C) it was shown that chlorination of ZnO with HCl gas is possible. Waste fuel containing high levels of elements known to be corrosive, for example, Na and K in combination with Cl, and also significant amounts of trace elements, such as Zn, are demanding on the whole boiler system. A full-scale study of how the volatilisation of Na, K, and Zn is affected by the bed temperature in a fluidised bed boiler was performed parallel with a lab-scale study with the same conditions. The study showed that the fouling rate on deposit probes were decreased by 20 % when the bed temperature was decreased from 870°C to below 720°C. In addition, the lab-scale experiments clearly indicated that the amount of alkali metals and Zn volatilised depends on the reactor temperature.

Ristikkorakenteisen hihnakuljetinsillan mitoitustyökalun kehittäminen

Hihnakuljettimia käytetään muun muassa voimalaitos- ja sellutehdasympäristöissä kuljettamaan kiinteää polttoainetta tai haketta pitkiä matkoja. Pitkät hihnakuljettimet asennetaan yleensä teräsristikoista rakennettujen kuljetinsiltojen sisään. Kuljetinsilta toimii siis hihnakuljettimen ja hoitokäytävän runkona sekä suojaa kuljetinta ja kuljetettavaa materiaalia säältä. Tässä diplomityössä on laadittu mitoitustyökalu, jolla voidaan nopeasti mitoittaa ristikkorakenteisen hihnakuljetinsillan sauvat sekä määrittää rakenteen massa. Laskentaohjelma on toteutettu Microsoft Excel -taulukkolaskentana. Sillan poikkileikkaus voi olla suljettu symmetrinen umpirakenne tai avorakenne, jossa on ulokkeellinen hoitotaso. Ristikon sauvat ovat RHS-putkia. Rakenteeseen voi vaikuttaa jatkuvia kuormia, pistekuormia sekä näistä johdetut, ekvivalenttiin staattiseen voimaan perustuvat maanjäristyskuormat. Diplomityössä on perehdytty mitoitustyökalussa sovellettuihin teorioihin. Voimasuureiden laskenta perustuu 2-tukisina palkkeina käsiteltävien siltalohkojen ratkaisuun ja palkkianalogiaan, jossa ristikon sauvavoimat ratkaistaan käsittelemällä ristikkoa palkkina. Sauvojen kestävyyden laskenta perustuu SFS-EN 1993-1-1 -normiin, joka on osa Eurocode -rakennesuunnittelunormistoa. Lisäksi työssä on käsitelty ristikkoliitosten mitoitusta SFS-EN 1993-1-8 mukaan. Mitoitusohjelman toimivuutta on testattu tarkastelemalla esimerkkisiltaa laaditulla mitoituspohjalla ja Autodesk Robot Professional 2013 -FE-analyysiohjelmisuolla. Tulosten perusteella mitoitustyökalua voidaan käyttää ainakin tarjousvaiheen nopeisiin tarkasteluihin ja omamassan määritykseen, mutta myös lopulliseen mitoitukseen, mikäli hyväksytään konservatiivinen mitoitus.

Linear prediction in optical spectroscopy

A linear prediction procedure is one of the approved numerical methods of signal processing. In the field of optical spectroscopy it is used mainly for extrapolation known parts of an optical signal in order to obtain a longer one or deduce missing signal samples. The first is needed particularly when narrowing spectral lines for the purpose of spectral information extraction. In the present paper the coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS) spectra were under investigation. The spectra were significantly distorted by the presence of nonlinear nonresonant background. In addition, line shapes were far from Gaussian/Lorentz profiles. To overcome these disadvantages the maximum entropy method (MEM) for phase spectrum retrieval was used. The obtained broad MEM spectra were further underwent the linear prediction analysis in order to be narrowed.

Thermal reactions of the major hydrocarbon components of biomass gasification gas

Gasification of biomass is an efficient method process to produce liquid fuels, heat and electricity. It is interesting especially for the Nordic countries, where raw material for the processes is readily available. The thermal reactions of light hydrocarbons are a major challenge for industrial applications. At elevated temperatures, light hydrocarbons react spontaneously to form higher molecular weight compounds. In this thesis, this phenomenon was studied by literature survey, experimental work and modeling effort. The literature survey revealed that the change in tar composition is likely caused by the kinetic entropy. The role of the surface material is deemed to be an important factor in the reactivity of the system. The experimental results were in accordance with previous publications on the subject. The novelty of the experimental work lies in the used time interval for measurements combined with an industrially relevant temperature interval. The aspects which are covered in the modeling include screening of possible numerical approaches, testing of optimization methods and kinetic modelling. No significant numerical issues were observed, so the used calculation routines are adequate for the task. Evolutionary algorithms gave a better performance combined with better fit than the conventional iterative methods such as Simplex and Levenberg-Marquardt methods. Three models were fitted on experimental data. The LLNL model was used as a reference model to which two other models were compared. A compact model which included all the observed species was developed. The parameter estimation performed on that model gave slightly impaired fit to experimental data than LLNL model, but the difference was barely significant. The third tested model concentrated on the decomposition of hydrocarbons and included a theoretical description of the formation of carbon layer on the reactor walls. The fit to experimental data was extremely good. Based on the simulation results and literature findings, it is likely that the surface coverage of carbonaceous deposits is a major factor in thermal reactions.

Threat modeling a factory environment using Microsoft Security Development Lifecycle methodology

The number of security violations is increasing and a security breach could have irreversible impacts to business. There are several ways to improve organization security, but some of them may be difficult to comprehend. This thesis demystifies threat modeling as part of secure system development. Threat modeling enables developers to reveal previously undetected security issues from computer systems. It offers a structured approach for organizations to find and address threats against vulnerabilities. When implemented correctly threat modeling will reduce the amount of defects and malicious attempts against the target environment. In this thesis Microsoft Security Development Lifecycle (SDL) is introduced as an effective methodology for reducing defects in the target system. SDL is traditionally meant to be used in software development, principles can be however partially adapted to IT-infrastructure development. Microsoft threat modeling methodology is an important part of SDL and it is utilized in this thesis to find threats from the Acme Corporation’s factory environment. Acme Corporation is used as a pseudonym for a company providing high-technology consumer electronics. Target for threat modeling is the IT-infrastructure of factory’s manufacturing execution system. Microsoft threat modeling methodology utilizes STRIDE –mnemonic and data flow diagrams to find threats. Threat modeling in this thesis returned results that were important for the organization. Acme Corporation now has more comprehensive understanding concerning IT-infrastructure of the manufacturing execution system. On top of vulnerability related results threat modeling provided coherent views of the target system. Subject matter experts from different areas can now agree upon functions and dependencies of the target system. Threat modeling was recognized as a useful activity for improving security.

Kohti vesiensuojelun aikaa; veden laadun muutokset eteläisimmällä Saimaalla

Työn tarkoituksena on ollut tutkia vesianalytiikan kehitystä Suomessa, arvioida rutiini-analytiikan luotettavuutta, selvittää eteläisimmän Saimaan jätevesikuormituksen kehitys ja siihen vaikuttaneet tekijät, laatia aikasarjat eräiden tutkimusalueen keskeisten veden laadun seurantapaikkojen veden laadun kehityksestä ja esittää keinoja veden laadun kehityksen kuvaa¬miseksi tiivistämällä suuri havaintomateriaali yksinkertaisiksi tunnusluvuiksi. Työssä käsiteltä¬vä aikajakso alkaa 1900-luvun alusta ja päättyy vuoteen 1998. Tutkimus on osa laajempaa ko¬konaisuutta. Tutkimusalue käsittää Vuoksen vesistön keskusjärven, Saimaan, eteläisimmät osat eli Pien-Saimaan, Suur-Saimaan, Vuoksen niskan ja Haapaveden altaat sekä vesistön purku¬-uoman, Vuoksen virran (ks. kuvat 5.1. ja 5.2.). Veden laatu alueen luonnontilaisilla alueilla on luokiteltavissa osin oligotrofiseksi, osin lievästi dysoligotrofiseksi. Sadan viimeisen vuoden aikana teollinen toiminta on muuttanut sitä voimakkaasti. Vesiensuojeluun on eteläisimmän Saimaan alueella investoitu yli 1,5 miljardia markka viimeisten noin 30 vuoden aikana. Investointien tuloksena kuormitus on laskenut oleellisesti 1960-luvun maksimikuormituksesta. Jätevesien purkuvesistön veden laatu on tänä aikana myös merkittävästi parantunut. Tämä on osoitettu veden laadun seurantatuloksista tehtyjen erilaisten tarkastelujen avulla (aikasarjadiagrammit, tilasto tarkastelut, indeksilukuluokitukset, PCA- ja PLS- ja DPLS- monimuuttujamallinnukset). Nykyisin veden laatu on lähes koko tutkimusalu¬eella vähintään tyydyttävä. Fysikaalis-kemiallisen veden laadun seurannan historia on Suomessa kansainvälisesti ja kansallisesti pitkä, ja Saimaalta voidaan veden laadun kehitystä arvioida luotettavasti 40 vuoden ajalta. Tutkimusmetodiikat vesitutkimusten pioneerimaissa ovat olleet samankaltaisia ja niiden perusteella on laadittu myös eurooppalaisen vedenlaadunseurannan suositukset. Vaikka tulevai¬suudessa vesistöä ja sen tilan kehitystä on tarkasteltava ekologisena kokonaisuutena, ei tätä voida tehdä ilman nykyisen kaltaista monitorointia. Teollisuuden jätevesikuormitus on laskenut neljännesvuosisadan aikana hyvin merkittä¬västi tavalla, joka vielä kymmenkunta vuotta sitten tuntui saavuttamattomalta. Saimaan. kuten muunkin Suomen metsäteollisuuden taso onkin kansainvälisesti korkea ja täyttää jo nyt kuormi¬tuksen suhteen lähes 2000-luvun alun BAT-tekniikan vaatimukset. Veden laatu ei kuitenkaan ole kuormitetuilla alueilla kaikkialla vielä hyvä, joten vesiensuojeluun on edelleen panostettava, kun tavoitteena on vesien hyvä ekologinen tila. Vesistöstä käsin tarkasteltuna hitaasti hajoavan orgaanisen aineen määrän vähentäminen vedestä on oltava seuraavana tavoitteena. Tätä tukee myös BAT-tekniikan tarkastelu.

Tutkimuskattilan taselaskenta

Diplomityön tavoitteena oli luoda Varkauden energiatutkimuskeskuksen tutkimuskäyttöön tarkoitetun kuplapetikattilan tase- ja säätölaskenta. Työssä on esitelty yleisesti kuplapetikattiloiden teoriaa ja tarkasteltu lyhyesti kuplapetikattilan muodostamaa kokonaisuutta energiantuotannossa. Työssä käsitelty tutkimuskattila ei ehtinyt valmistua ennen tätä diplomityötä, joten mittauksia käytön ajalta ei voitu suorittaa ja sisällyttää tähän työhön. Lisäksi mahdolliset käytössä havaittavat korjaukset ja parannukset taselaskentaan jäivät tämän työn tarkastelun ulkopuolelle. Taselaskennan muodostamisessa hyödynnettiin kattilan suunnitteluvaiheessa luotuja säätö- ja PI-kaavioita. Säätömekaniikkaa luodessa huomioitiin mahdollisimman tarkasti automaatiojärjestelmän vaatimukset ja suorituskyky. Työssä on esitetty suuri määrä kattilalaskennan kannalta keskeisiä yhtälöitä. Prosessia ja säätömekaniikkaa mallinnettiin laskentaperusteisesti, työssä on esitetty yhtälöistä saatavat tulokset kattilaa ajettaessa tyypillisillä arvoilla 100 %:n teholla. Työn tuloksena tutkimuskattilalle saatiin säätömekaniikka, jolla pystytään arvioimaan viipymäaikaa kattilassa. Lasketun viipymäajan avulla polttoprosessi kattilassa voidaan suunnitella ja suorittaa tutkimuskäyttöön vaaditulla tarkkuudella ja laissa säädettyjen määräyksien mukaan, mikäli kierrätyspolttoainetta käytetään yli 50 tonnia vuodessa.