The analysis and mitigation of risks in FMCG supply chain: the case of British American Tobacco Eastern Europe

This work investigates the Bullwhip Effect, which is one of the most important phenomena in contemporary supply chain management. The author uses most recent theoretical apparatus to analyze operational activities of a leading FMCG company British American Tobacco Eastern Europe. This paper investigates and describes the process in BAT supply chain management and considers the impact of the Bullwhip Effect together with the potential risks threatening company's operations. Emergence of the Bullwhip Effect leads to supply chain inefficiency. This paper contains methodological supply chain risk mitigation recommendations, description of a real case study and an analytical study of internal and external supply chain processes

Exiles and Constituents: Baltic Refugees and American Cold War Politics, 1948- 1960

This dissertation explores the complicated relations between Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian postwar refugees and American foreign policymakers between 1948 and 1960. There were seemingly shared interests between the parties during the first decade of the Cold War. Generally, Eastern European refugees refused to recognize Soviet hegemony in their homelands, and American policy towards the Soviet bloc during the Truman and Eisenhower administrations sought to undermine the Kremlin’s standing in the region. More specifically, Baltic refugees and State Department officials sought to preserve the 1940 non-recognition policy towards the Soviet annexation of the Baltic States. I propose that despite the seemingly natural convergence of interests, the American experiment of constructing a State-Private network revolving around fostering relations with exile groups was fraught with difficulties. These difficulties ultimately undermined any ability that the United States might have had to liberate the Baltic States from the Soviet Union. As this dissertation demonstrates, Baltic exiles were primarily concerned with preserving a high level of political continuity to the interwar republics under the assumption that they would be able to regain their positions in liberated, democratic societies. American policymakers, however, were primarily concerned with maintaining the non-recognition policy, the framework in which all policy considerations were analyzed. I argue that these two motivating factors created unnecessary tensions in American policy towards the Baltic republics in the spheres of psychological warfare as well as exile unity in the United States and Europe. Despite these shortcomings, I argue that out of the exiles’ failings was born a generation of Baltic constituents that blurred the political legitimacy line between exiles who sought to return home and ethnic Americans who were loyal to the United States. These Baltic constituents played an important role in garnering the support of the United States Congress, starting in the 1950s, but became increasingly influential after the 1956 Hungarian Revolution, despite the seemingly less important role Eastern Europe played in the Cold War. The actions of the Baltic constituents not only prevented the Baltic question from being forever lost in the memory hole of history, but actually created enough political pressure on the State Department that it was impossible to alter the long-standing policy of not recognizing the Soviet annexation of the Baltic States.

St. Petersburg Court Chant and the Tradition of Eastern Slavic Church Singing

The present study examines the repertory of liturgical chant known as St. Petersburg Court Chant which emerged within the Imperial Court of St. Petersburg, Russia, and appeared in print in a number of revisions during the course of the 19th century, eventually to spread throughout the Russian Empire and even abroad. The study seeks answers to questions on the essence and composition of Court Chant, its history and liturgical background, and most importantly, its musical relationship to other repertories of Eastern Slavic chant. The research questions emerge from previous literary accounts of Court Chant (summarized in the Introduction), which have tended to be inaccurate and generally not based on critical research. The study is divided into eight main chapters. Chapter 1 provides a survey of the history of Eastern Slavic chant and the Imperial Court Chapel of St. Petersburg until 1917, with special emphasis on the history of singing traditional chant in polyphony, the status of the Court Chapel as a government authority, and its endeavours in publishing church music. Chapter 2 deals with the liturgical background of Eastern chant, the chant genres, and main repertories of Eastern Slavic chant. Chapter 3 concentrates on chant sources: it introduces the musical notations utilised, after which a typology of chant books is presented. The discussion continues with a survey of the sources of Court Chant and their content, the specimens selected for closer analysis, the comparative materials from other repertories, and ends with a commentary on some chant sources that have been excluded. The comparative sources include a specimen from around the beginning of the 12th century, a few manuscripts from the 17th century, and printed and manuscript chant books from the early 18th to early 20th century, covering the geographical area that delimits to the western Ukraine, Astrakhan, Nizhny Novgorod, and the Solovetsky Monastery. Chapter 4 presents the approach and methods used in the subsequent analytical comparisons. After a survey of the pitch organization of Eastern Slavic chant, the customary harmonization strategy of traditional chant polyphony is examined, according to which a method for meaningful analysis of the harmony is proposed. The method is based on the observation that the harmonic framework of chant polyphony derives from the standard pitch collection of monodic chant known as the Church Gamut, specific pitches of which form eight harmonic regions that behave like the usual tonalities of major and harmonic minor. Because of the considerable quantity of comparative chant forms, computer-assisted statistical methods are applied to the analysis of chant melodies. The primary chant forms and their respective comparative forms have been pre-processed into reduced chant prototypes and divided into redactions. The analyses are carried out by measuring the formal dissimilarities of the primary chant forms of the Court Chant repertory against each comparative form, and also by measuring the reciprocal dissimilarities of all chant versions in a redaction, the results of which are subjected to agglomerative hierarchical clustering in order to find out how the chant forms relate to each other. The dissimilarities are determined by applying a metric dissimilarity function that is based on the Levenshtein Distance. Chapter 5 provides the melodic and harmonic analyses of generic chants (chants used for multiple texts of different lengths), i.e., chants for stichera samoglasny and troparia, Chapter 6 of pseudo-generic chants (chants that are used for multiple texts but with certain restrictions), i.e., chants for heirmoi, prokeimena, and three other hymns, and Chapter 7 of non-generic chants, covering nine chants that in the Court repertory are not shared by multiple texts. The results are summarized and evaluated in Chapter 8. Accordingly, it can be established that, contrary to previous conceptions, melodically, Court Chant is in effect a full part of the wider Eastern Slavic chant tradition. Even if it is somewhat detached from the chant versions of the Synodal square-note chant books and the local tradition of Moscow, it is particularly close to chant forms of East Ukraine and some vernacular repertories from Russia. Respectively, the harmonization strategies of Court Chant do not show significant individuality in comparison with those of the available polyphonic comparative sources, the main difference being the part-writing, which generally conforms to western common practice standard, whereas the deviations from this tend to be more significant in other analysed repertories of polyphonic chant. Thus, insofar as the subsequent prevalence of Court Chant is not based on its forceful dissemination by authorities (as suggested in previous literature but for which little tangible evidence could be found in Chapter 1), in the present author’s interpretation, Court Chant attained its dominance principally because musically it was considered sufficiently traditional, and as a chant body supported by the government, was conveniently available in print in serviceable harmonizations.

Liedon Balkan-kollokvio 7.-8.10.2010

Kollokvion teema: "Balkan Peace: Trauma and Utopia".

Integration or a Greek tragedy?: How crisis spillovers affect Central and Eastern European States

Tutkielma siitä, miten Euroopan entisten sosialistivaltioiden markkinoiden integroituminen on edistynyt Kreikan ja EMU-alueen kanssa euron käyttöönoton ajalta. Tutkimus vertaa maiden markkinoiden reaktioita Kreikasta ja EMU-alueelta kantautuviin sokkeihin ennen ja jälkeen vuonna 2007 alkanutta kriisiä.

The Roots of Neurofibromas in Neurofibromatosis 1 — A Question of Multipotency, Differentiation and Hiding

Neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1) is an autosomal dominant cancer predisposition syndrome that affects about 1 in 3500 individuals worldwide. NF1 is caused by mutations in the NF1 gene that encodes the tumor suppressor protein neurofibromin, an inactivator of the Ras oncogene. The hallmarks of NF1 include pigmentary lesions of the skin, Lisch nodules of the iris and cutaneous neurofibromas. Cutaneous neurofibromas are benign tumors composed of all the cell types of normal peripheral nerve. The traditional view of neurofibroma development has been that cutaneous neurofibromas arise from the disruption of the small nerve tributaries of the skin and subsequent proliferation of the resident cells. The second hit mutation in the NF1 gene has been considered as a prerequisite for neurofibroma development. The second hit is detectable in a subpopulation of primary Schwann cells cultured from neurofibromas. This thesis challenges the traditional concept of neurofibroma development. The results show that cutaneous neurofibromas are intimately associated with hair follicular structures and contain multipotent precursor cells (NFPs), suggesting that neurofibromas may arise from the multipotent cells which reside in hair follicles. Furthermore, this study presents that neurofibroma-derived Schwann cells that harbor bi-allelic inactivation in the NF1 gene express HLA class II genes and may act as nonprofessional antigen presenting cells. The CD4- and FoxP3-positive cells detected in cutaneous neurofibromas suggest that these cells may represent regulatory T cells (Tregs) which interact with HLA II –positive cells and aid the tumor cells in hiding from the immune system and are thus mediators of immune tolerance. This thesis also investigated neurofibroma development in the oral cavity and the use of different biomarkers to characterize cellular differentiation in neurofibromas. The results revealed that oral neurofibromas are not rare, but they usually appear as solitary lesions contrary to multiple cutaneous neurofibromas and present high heterogeneity within and between tumors. The use of class III beta-tubulin as a marker for neuronal differentiation led to an unexpected finding showing that multiple cell types express class III beta-tubulin during mitosis. The increased understanding of the multipotency of tumor cells, cellular differentiation and ability to hide from immune system will aid in the development of future treatments. Specifically, targeting Tregs in NF1 patients could provide a novel therapeutic approach to interfere with the development of neurofibromas.

Interdependence of Emerging Eastern European stock markets

One of the main developments in the global economy during the past decades has been the growth of emerging economies. Projections for their long-term growth, changes in the investment climate, corporate transparency and demography point to an increasing role for these emerging economies in the global economy. Today, emerging economies are usually considered as financial markets offering opportunities for high returns, good risk diversification and improved return-to-risk ratios. However, researchers have noted that these advantages may be in decline because of the increasing market integration. Nevertheless, it is likely that certain financial markets and specific sectors will remain partially segmented and somewhat insulated from the global economy for the year to come. This doctoral dissertation investigates several stock markets in Emerging Eastern Europe (EEE), including the ones in Russia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Slovenia. The objective is to analyze the returns and financial risks in these emerging markets from international investor’s point of view. This study also examines the segmentation/integration of these financial markets and the possibilities to diversify and hedge financial risk. The dissertation is divided into two parts. The first includes a review of the theoretical background for the articles and a review of the literature on EEE stock markets. It includes an overview of the methodology and research design applied in the analysis and a summary of articles from the second part of this dissertation and their main findings. The second part consists of four research publications. This work contributes to studies on emerging stock markets in four ways. First, it adds to the body of research on the pricing of risk, providing new empirical evidence about partial stock market segmentation in EEE. The results suggest that the aggregate emerging market risk is a relevant driver for stock market returns and that this market risk can be used to price financial instruments and forecast their performance. Second, it contributes to the empirical research on the integration of stock markets, asset prices and exchange rates by identifying the relationships between these markets through volatility and asset pricing. The results show that certain sectors of stock markets in EEE are not as integrated as others. For example, the Polish consumer goods sector, the Hungarian telecommunications sector, and the Czech financial sector are somewhat isolated from their counterparts elsewhere in Europe. Nevertheless, an analysis of the impact of EU accession in 2004 on stock markets suggests that most of the EEE markets are becoming increasingly integrated with the global markets. Third, this thesis complements the scientific literature in the field of shock and volatility spillovers by examining the mechanism of spillover distribution among the EU and EEE countries. The results illustrate that spillovers in emerging markets are mostly from a foreign exchange to the stock markets. Moreover, the results show that the effects of external shocks on stock markets have increased after the enlargement of the EU in 2004. Finally, this study is unique because it analyzes the effects of foreign macroeconomic news on geographically closely related countries. The results suggest that the effects of macroeconomic announcements on volatility are significant and have effect that varies across markets and their sectors. Moreover, the results show that the foreign macroeconomic news releases, somewhat surprisingly, have a greater effect on the EEE markets than the local macroeconomic news. This dissertation has a number of implications for the industry and for practitioners. It analyses financial risk associated with investing in Emerging Eastern Europe. Investors may use this information to construct and optimize investment portfolios. Moreover, this dissertation provides insights for investors and portfolio managers considering asset allocation to protect value or obtain higher returns. The results have also implications for asset pricing and portfolio selection in light of macroeconomic news releases.

Seasonal variation in migratory body condition, corticosterone secretion, oxidative stress and biotransformation activity in barn swallows (Hirundo rustica L.)

I studied the associations between migration-related physiological regulation (corticosterone) and body condition of barn swallows (Hirundo rustica L.). An additional purpose was to determine whether oxidative stress and biotransformation activity vary seasonally. Since physiological regulation, biotransformation activity and the stress involved may be important factors for body condition during migration; they may have direct effects on migration success. This in turn may influence other important life history stages, such as breeding and moult. In the thesis I used barn swallow data of the Finnish Ringing Centre (1997–2009), consisting of all juveniles ringed in the nests and recaptured from night roosts later the same autumn. Before the autumn migration in Finland I also captured, ringed and sampled barn swallows from night roosts in 2003, 2006, 2007 and 2011. Samples preceding spring migration in South Africa were collected in 2007. Juvenile barn swallows started to migrate southward in mid-August (first broods). Second broods started their migration at a younger age and almost a month later than first broods (mid-September). Barn swallows increased body mass and accumulated fat for the autumn migration. In the course of the autumn they seemed to be able to prevent the loss of energy already accumulated, since the proportional overnight mass loss, fat loss and faecal production decreased. Surprisingly, corticosterone, the major energy-regulating hormone in birds, seemed not to be involved in the fuelling process. Previous studies with warblers, sparrows and shorebirds had shown that during migration, the baseline levels of corticosterone were elevated in order to facilitate fuelling. It is possible that for Finnish barn swallows the most important fuelling place is in southern Europe, since northern and eastern populations migrate via the Balkan Peninsula. However, the adrenocortical stress response of Finnish barn swallows in good body condition was lower than that of those in poor body condition. Birds clearly suppressed the response, probably to prevent the catabolic effects of excessive corticosterone levels; birds cannot afford to lose muscle mass before migration. South African barn swallows had high levels of baseline corticosterone, but this may have been associated with the high oxidative damage and biotransformation activity of those birds. Barn swallows in spring and summer had low biotransformation activity and intermediate oxidative stress, which was probably related to breeding. Autumn birds had low biotransformation activity and oxidative stress but high redox enzyme activities in some migration-related enzymes.

Syvää vai pelkästään tiheää : neuvostoliittolaisen ja venäläisen sotataidollisen ajattelun lähtökohdat, kehittyminen, soveltaminen käytäntöön ja nykytilanne. Näkökulmana 1920- ja 1930-luvun syvän taistelun ja operaation opit

Sosialistisen vallankumouksen jälkeen Neuvosto-Venäjän oli monien muiden kysymysten ohella ratkaistava sosialismin saavutusten puolustaminen. Aluksi ratkaisuksi suunniteltiin vapaaehtoisuuteen perustuvaa punakaartia, mutta riittävän miesvahvuuden turvaamiseksi päädyttiin yleiseen asevelvollisuuteen. Pian Venäjän sisällissodan jälkeen sotataidon suunta painottui enemmän vanhan armeijan asiantuntijoiden näkemysten kuin vallankumoussankarien kokemusten mukaiseksi, vaikka Frunzen puna-armeijalle kirjoittama doktriini perustui luokkataisteluun ja korosti sisällissodassa hyväksi koettua operatiivista liikkuvuutta. Neuvostoliiton ja Venäjän sotataidon perustana on Pietari I:n aloittama länsimainen suuntaus, jota kuitenkin täydentävät vahvat kansalliset piirteet. Venäläisen sotataidon henkisenä isänä voidaan hyvällä syyllä pitää Aleksandr Suvorovia, jonka opetukset näkyvät tekstilainausten lisäksi myös periaatteissa ja sotilaskasvatuksessa. Napoleonin sotien jälkeen perustettu Keisarillinen yleisesikunta-akatemia loi Venäjälle sotatieteellisen tutkimuksen ja opetuksen. Sotatieteen mahdollisuuksia ei 1800-luvun Venäjällä osattu täysin hyödyntää. Aseistuksen kasvavan tehon merkitystä vähättelevä asenne johti sotataidon taantumisen ja katastrofiin Venäjän–Japanin sodassa. Sen kokemuksia analysoidessaan Aleksandr Neznamov kehitti edelleen saksalaista operaation käsitettä ja loi perustan Neuvostoliitossa 1920-luvulla kehitetylle operaatiotaidolle. Neuvostoliittolaisen sotataidon päämääränä oli kehittää taktinen ja operatiivinen ratkaisu aseistuksen tehon kasvun aikaansaamaan puolustuksen ylivoimaisuuteen. Ratkaisussa hyödynnettiin brittien kokemuksia ja tutkimusta. Neuvostoliittolainen taktiikka ja operaatiotaito eivät kuitenkaan olleet brittiläisen mekanisoidun sodankäynnin tai saksalaisen salamasodan itäinen kopioita vaan itsenäisiin ratkaisuihin pohjautuvia. Syvän taistelun ja operaation teoriaa kokeiltiin harjoituksissa, ja sitä kehitettiin Stalinin vuoden 1937 puhdistuksiin saakka. Toisen maailmansodan taisteluissa puna-armeija sovelsi alkuvaiheen katastrofin jälkeen syvän taistelun ja syvän operaation oppeja. Komentajien ja joukkojen taito ei riittänyt teorian vaatimusten mukaiseen toimintaan, siksi syväksi aiotusta taistelusta tuli ajoittain ainoastaan tiheää. Suuren isänmaallisen sodan kokemusten perusteella neuvostoliittolainen sotatiede kehitti yleisjoukkojen taistelun periaatteet, jotka ovat säilyneet muuttumattomina nykypäivään saakka. Kylmän sodan aikakaudella ydin- ja tavanomaisen aseistuksen merkitys sodan ja taistelun kuvassa vaihteli. Lännen sotataidon ja aseteknologian kehitys pakotti Neuvostoliiton siirtymään 1980-luvulla sotilaallisessa ajattelussaan hyökkäyksestä puolustukseen. Neuvostoliiton hajoamisen jälkeen Venäjän sotilaallisen turvallisuuden takaajana on ydinaseistus. Yhdysvaltain tavanomainen ilma-avaruushyökkäyskyky vaatii Venäjää kehittämään torjuntajärjestelmiä. Tavanomaisten joukkojen rakentamisessa Venäjä seuraa tarkasti läntisen sotataidon kehittymistä, mutta pitäytyy omaperäisiin ratkaisuihin, joiden kehittämisessä sen vahvalla sotatieteellisellä järjestelmällä ja dialektisen materialismin metodilla on edelleen olennaisen tärkeä merkitys.

Opportunities, constraints and constrained opportunities – A study on mothers’ working time patterns in 22 European countries

The aim of this study was to analyse mothers’ working time patterns across 22 European countries. The focus was on three questions: how much mothers prefer to work, how much they actually work, and to what degree their preferred and actual working times are (in)consistent with each other. The focus was on cross-national differences in mothers’ working time patterns, comparison of mothers’ working times to that of childless women and fathers, as well as on individual- and country-level factors that explain the variation between them. In the theoretical background, the departure point was an integrative theoretical approach where the assumption is that there are various kinds of explanations for the differences in mothers’ working time patterns – namely structural, cultural and institutional – , and that these factors are laid in two levels: individual- and country-levels. Data were extracted from the European Social Survey (ESS) 2010 / 2011. The results showed that mothers’ working time patterns, both preferred and actual working times, varied across European countries. Four clusters were formed to illustrate the differences. In the full-time pattern, full-time work was the most important form of work, leaving all other working time forms marginal. The full-time pattern was perceived in terms of preferred working times in Bulgaria and Portugal. In polarised pattern countries, fulltime work was also important, but it was accompanied by a large share of mothers not working at all. In the case of preferred working times, many Eastern and Southern European countries followed it whereas in terms of actual working times it included all Eastern and Southern European countries as well as Finland. The combination pattern was characterised by the importance of long part-time hours and full-time work. It was the preferred working time pattern in the Nordic countries, France, Slovenia, and Spain, but Belgium, Denmark, France, Norway, and Sweden followed it in terms of actual working times. The fourth cluster that described mothers’ working times was called the part-time pattern, and it was illustrated by the prevalence of short and long part-time work. In the case of preferred working times, it was followed in Belgium, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands and Switzerland. Besides Belgium, the part-time pattern was followed in the same countries in terms of actual working times. The consistency between preferred and actual working times was rather strong in a majority of countries. However, six countries fell under different working time patterns when preferred and actual working times were compared. Comparison of working mothers’, childless women’s, and fathers’ working times showed that differences between these groups were surprisingly small. It was only in part-time pattern countries that working mothers worked significantly shorter hours than working childless women and fathers. Results therefore revealed that when mothers’ working times are under study, an important question regarding the population examined is whether it consists of all mothers or only working mothers. Results moreover supported the use of the integrative theoretical approach when studying mothers’ working time patterns. Results indicate that mothers’ working time patterns in all countries are shaped by various opportunities and constraints, which are comprised of structural, cultural, institutional, and individual-level factors.

A map of the eastern part of the Roman Empire

Kartta kuuluu A. E. Nordenskiöldin kokoelmaan