Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

The accumulation of financial and social capital as a means to achieve a sustained competitive advantage for consumer co-operatives

By so far, scholars have discussed how the characteristics of consumer co-operatives (cooperative principles, values and the dual role of members as the users and owners) can potentially give them a competitive advantage over investor-owned firms (IOFs). In addition, concern for the community (as partly derived from locality and regionality) has been seen as a potential source of success for consumer co-operatives. On the other hand, the geographicbound purpose of consumer co-operation causes that consumer co-operative can be regarded as a challenging company form to manage. This is because, according to the purpose of consumer co-operation, co-operatives are obligated to 1) provide the owners with services and goods that are needed and do so at more affordable prices than their competitors do and/or 2) to operate in areas in which competitors do not want to operate (for example, because of the low profitability in certain area of business or region). Thus, consumer co-operatives have to operate very efficiently in order to execute this geographic-bound corporate purpose (e.g. they cannot withdraw from the competition during the declining stages of business). However, this efficiency cannot be achieved by any means; as the acceptance from the important regional stakeholders is the basic operational precondition and lifeline in the long run. Thereby, the central question for the survival and success of consumer co-operatives is; how should the consumer co-operatives execute its corporate purpose so it can be the best alternative to its members in the long run? This question has remained unanswered and lack empirical evidence in the previous studies on the strategic management of consumer cooperation. In more detail, scholars have not yet empirically investigated the question: How can consumer co-operatives use financial and social capital to achieve a sustained competitive advantage? It is this research gap that this doctoral dissertation aims to fulfil. This doctoral dissertation aims to answer the above questions by combining and utilizing interview data from S Group co-operatives and the central organizations in S Group´s network (overall, 33 interviews were gathered), archival material and 56 published media articles/reports. The study is based on a qualitative case study approach that is aimed at theory development, not theory verification (as the theory is considered as nascent in this field of study). Firstly, the findings of this study indicate that consumer co-operatives accumulate financial capital; 1) by making profit (to invest and grow) and 2) by utilizing a network-based organizational structure (local supply chain economies). As a result of financial capital accumulation, consumer co-operatives are able to achieve efficiency gains but also remain local. In addition, a strong financial capital base increases consumer co-operatives´ independence, competitiveness and their ability to participate in regional development (which is in accordance with their geographically bound corporate purpose). Secondly, consumer cooperatives accumulate social capital through informal networking (with important regional stakeholders), corporate social responsibility (CSR) behaviour and CSR reporting, pursuing common good, and interacting and identity sharing. As a result of social capital accumulation, consumer co-operatives are able to obtain the resources for managing; 1) institutional dependencies and 2) customer relations. By accumulating both social and financial capital through the above presented actions, consumer co-operatives are able to achieve sustained competitive advantage. Finally, this thesis provides useful ideas and new knowledge for cooperative managers concerning why and how consumer co-operatives should accumulate financial and social capital (to achieve sustained competitive advantage), while aligning with their corporate purpose.

Generating competitive advantage through competitor information systems

This pro gradu –thesis discusses generating competitive advantage through competitor information systems. The structure of this thesis follows the structure of the WCA model by Alter (1996). In the WCA model, business process is influenced by three separate but connected elements: information, technology, and process participants. The main research question is how competitor information can be incorporated into or made into a tool creating competitive advantage. Research subquestions are: How does competitor information act as a part of the business process creating competitive advantage? How is a good competitor information system situated and structured in an organisation? How can management help information generate competitive advantage in the business process with participants, information, and technology? This thesis discusses each of the elements separate, but the elements are connected to each other and to competitive advantage. Information is discussed by delving into competitor information and competitor analysis. Competitive intelligence and competitor analysis requires commitment throughout the organisation, including top management, the desire to perform competitive intelligence and the desire to use the end products of that competitive intelligence. In order to be successful, systematic competitive intelligence and competitor analysis require vision, willingness to strive for the goals set, and clear strategies to proceed. Technology is discussed by taking a look into the function of the competitor information systems play and the place they occupy within an organization. In addition, there is discussion about the basic infrastructure of competitor information systems, and the problems competitor information systems can have plaguing them. In order for competitor information systems to be useful and worthy of the resources it takes to develop and maintain them, competitor information systems require on-going resource allocation and high quality information. In order for competitor information systems justify their existence business process participants need to maintain and utilize competitor information systems on all levels. Business process participants are discussed through management practices. This thesis discusses way to manage information, technology, and process participants, when the goal is to generate competitive advantage through competitor information systems. This is possible when information is treated as a resource with value, technology requires strategy in order to be successful within an organization, and process participants are an important resource. Generating competitive advantage through competitor information systems is possible when the elements of information, technology, and business process participants all align advantageously.

Valmentava johtaminen ja sen kehittäminen koulutusorganisaatiossa

Opinnäytetyö toteutettiin Pohjois-Karjalan koulutuskuntayhtymälle. Koulutusorganisaatiossa tapahtuu lähitulevaisuudessa rakenteellisia muutoksia. Organisaation pääprosessi (opetusprosessi) muuttuu ryhmäopetuksesta yksilöä valmentavaan suuntaan. Tämä aiheuttaa myös johtamisen ja organisaatiokulttuurin muutoksen, vanhat toimintatavat eivät enää riitä. Organisaation rajapinnoilla toimivien esimiesten asema on muutoksessa avainasemassa. Jotta toiminta voi jatkua ja kilpailuetu pystytään säilyttämään, rakennetaan valmentavan johtamisen ja osallistavan organisaatiokulttuurin avulla tukiprosessit pääprosessin ympärille. Tutkimus toteutettiin kvalitatiivisena tapaustutkimuksena (case). Tutkimuksessa keskityttiin yhden Pohjois-Karjalaisen ammattiopiston nykytilan johtamismallin vertaamista kehitettävään uuteen toimintamalliin. Tutkimusaineisto kerättiin puolistrukturoidulla teemahaastattelulla. Tutkimuksessa haastateltiin yhdeksää esimiestä (koulutusjohtajia ja lähiesimiehiä). Tutkimustulosten mukaan valmentavaa johtamista ja organisaatiokulttuurin muutosta ei ymmärretä selkeästi. Koulutusjohtajilla on selkeämpi käsitys muutoksesta kuin lähiesimiehillä. Lähiesimiehillä esiintyy selkeää muutosvastarintaa. Selkeimmät haasteet muutoksessa liittyvät resurssien käyttöön, hankkeiden ja projektien hallintaan sekä osastojen väliseen yhteistyöhön ja verkostoitumiseen. Tärkeintä on ymmärtää, että valmentama toiminta on jatkuvaa kehittämistä ja ihmisten välistä vuorovaikutusta. Tässä tutkimuksessa saatiin havaintoja, jotka tukevat esitettyä teoriaa.

Strategic narratives and competitive advantage : do winners speak differently?

Concepts, models, or theories that end up shaping practices, whether those practices fall in the domains of science, technology, social movements, or business, always emerge through a change in language use. First, communities begin to talk differently, incorporating new vocabularies (Rorty, 1989), in their narratives. Whether the community’s new narratives respond to perceived anomalies or failures of the existing ones (Kuhn, 1962) or actually reveal inadequacies by addressing previously unrecognized practices (Fleck, 1979; Rorty, 1989) is less important here than the very phenomena that they introduce differences. Then, if the new language proves to be useful, for example, because it helps the community solve a problem or create a possibility that existing narratives do not, the new narrative will begin circulating more broadly throughout the community. If other communities learn of the usefulness of these new narratives, and find them sufficiently persuasive, they may be compelled to test, modify, and eventually adopt them. Of primary importance is the idea that a new concept or narrative perceived as useful is more likely to be adopted. We can expect that business concepts emerge through a similar pattern. Concepts such as “competitive advantage,” “disruption,” and the “resource based view,” now broadly known and accepted, were each at some point first introduced by a community. This community experimented with the concepts they introduced and found them useful. The concept “competitive advantage,” for example, helped researchers better explain why some firm’s outperformed others and helped practitioners more clearly understand what choices to make to improve the profit and growth prospects of their firms. The benefits of using these terms compelled other communities to consider, apply, and eventually adopt them as well. Were these terms not viewed as useful, they would not likely have been adopted. This thesis attempts to observe and anticipate new business concepts that may be emerging. It does so by seeking to observe a community of business practitioners that are using different language and appear to be more successful than a similar community of practitioners that are have not yet begun using this different language as extensively. It argues that if the community that is adopting new types of narratives is perceived as being more successful, their success will attract the attention of other communities who may then seek to adopt the same narratives. Specifically, this thesis compares the narratives used by a set of firms that are considered to be performing well (called Winners) with those of set of less-successful peers (called Losers). It does so with the aim of addressing two questions: - How do the strategic narratives that circulate within “winning” companies and their leaders differ from those circulating within “losing” companies and their leaders? - Given the answer to the first question: what new business strategy concepts are likely to emerge in the business community at large? I expected to observe “winning” companies shifting their language, abandoning an older set of narratives for newer ones. However the analysis indicates a more interesting dynamic: “winning” companies adopt the same core narratives as their “losing” peers with equal frequency yet they go beyond these. Both “winners” and “losers” seem to pursue economies of scale, customer captivity, best practices, and securing preferential access to resources with similar vigor. But “winners” seem to go further, applying three additional narratives in their pursuits of competitive advantage. They speak of coordinating what is uncoordinated, adopting what this thesis calls “exchanging the role of guest for that of host,” and “forcing a two-front battle” more frequently than their “loser” peers. Since these “winning” companies are likely perceived as being more successful, the unique narratives they use are more likely to be emulated and adopted. Understanding in what ways winners speak differently, therefore, gives us a glimpse into the possible future evolution of business concepts.

Competitive advantage through proprietary erp implementation: analysis of the project Väinämö

In the market where companies similar in size and resources are competing, it is challenging to have any advantage over others. In order to stay afloat company needs to have capability to perform with fewer resources and yet provide better service. Hence development of efficient processes which can cut costs and improve performance is crucial. As business expands, processes become complicated and large amount of data needs to be managed and available on request. Different tools are used in companies to store and manage data, which facilitates better production and transactions. In the modern business world the most utilized tool for that purpose is ERP - Enterprise Resource Planning system. The focus of this research is to study how competitive advantage can be achieved by implementing proprietary ERP system in the company; ERP system that is in-house created, tailor made to match and align business needs and processes. Market is full of ERP software, but choosing the right one is a big challenge. Identifying the key features that need improvement in processes and data management, choosing the right ERP, implementing it and the follow-up is a long and expensive journey companies undergo. Some companies prefer to invest in a ready-made package bought from vendor and adjust it according to own business needs, while others focus on creating own system with in-house IT capabilities. In this research a case company is used and author tries to identify and analyze why organization in question decided to pursue the development of proprietary ERP system, how it has been implemented and whether it has been successful. Main conclusion and recommendation of this research is for companies to know core capabilities and constraints before choosing and implementing ERP system. Knowledge of factors that affect system change outcome is important, to make the right decisions on strategic level and implement on operational level. Duration of the project in the case company has lasted longer than anticipated. It has been reported that in cases of buying ready product from vendor, projects are delayed and completed over budget as well. In general, in case company implementation of proprietary ERP has been successful both from business performance figures and usability of system by employees. In terms of future research, conducting a study to calculate statistically ROI of both approaches; of buying ready product and creating own ERP will be beneficial.