Modelling of changes in electricity end-use and their impacts on electricity distribution

The electricity distribution sector will face significant changes in the future. Increasing reliability demands will call for major network investments. At the same time, electricity end-use is undergoing profound changes. The changes include future energy technologies and other advances in the field. New technologies such as microgeneration and electric vehicles will have different kinds of impacts on electricity distribution network loads. In addition, smart metering provides more accurate electricity consumption data and opportunities to develop sophisticated load modelling and forecasting approaches. Thus, there are both demands and opportunities to develop a new type of long-term forecasting methodology for electricity distribution. The work concentrates on the technical and economic perspectives of electricity distribution. The doctoral dissertation proposes a methodology to forecast electricity consumption in the distribution networks. The forecasting process consists of a spatial analysis, clustering, end-use modelling, scenarios and simulation methods, and the load forecasts are based on the application of automatic meter reading (AMR) data. The developed long-term forecasting process produces power-based load forecasts. By applying these results, it is possible to forecast the impacts of changes on electrical energy in the network, and further, on the distribution system operator’s revenue. These results are applicable to distribution network and business planning. This doctoral dissertation includes a case study, which tests the forecasting process in practice. For the case study, the most prominent future energy technologies are chosen, and their impacts on the electrical energy and power on the network are analysed. The most relevant topics related to changes in the operating environment, namely energy efficiency, microgeneration, electric vehicles, energy storages and demand response, are discussed in more detail. The study shows that changes in electricity end-use may have radical impacts both on electrical energy and power in the distribution networks and on the distribution revenue. These changes will probably pose challenges for distribution system operators. The study suggests solutions for the distribution system operators on how they can prepare for the changing conditions. It is concluded that a new type of load forecasting methodology is needed, because the previous methods are no longer able to produce adequate forecasts.

Detection of Epilepsy with a Commercial EEG Headband

Epilepsy is a chronic brain disorder, characterized by reoccurring seizures. Automatic sei-zure detector, incorporated into a mobile closed-loop system, can improve the quality of life for the people with epilepsy. Commercial EEG headbands, such as Emotiv Epoc, have a potential to be used as the data acquisition devices for such a system. In order to estimate that potential, epileptic EEG signals from the commercial devices were emulated in this work based on the EEG data from a clinical dataset. The emulated characteristics include the referencing scheme, the set of electrodes used, the sampling rate, the sample resolution and the noise level. Performance of the existing algorithm for detection of epileptic seizures, developed in the context of clinical data, has been evaluated on the emulated commercial data. The results show, that after the transformation of the data towards the characteristics of Emotiv Epoc, the detection capabilities of the algorithm are mostly preserved. The ranges of acceptable changes in the signal parameters are also estimated.