Kysynnän ennustaminen leipomotuotteille ja ennusteen tarkkuuden arviointi

Tässä diplomityössä tutkittiin kysynnän ennustamista Vaasan & Vaasan Oy:n tuotteille. Ensin työssä perehdyttiin ennustamiseen ja sen tarjoamiin mahdollisuuksiin yrityksessä. Erityisesti kysynnän ennustamisesta saatavat hyödyt käytiin läpi. Kysynnän ennustamisesta haettiin ratkaisua erityisesti ongelmiin työvuorosuunnittelussa.Työssä perehdyttiin ennustemenetelmiin liittyvään kirjallisuuteen, jonka oppien perusteella tehtiin koe-ennustuksia yrityksen kysynnän historiadatan avulla. Koe-ennustuksia tehtiin kuudelle eri Turun leipomon koe-tuotteelle. Ennustettavana aikavälinä oli kahden viikon päiväkohtainen kysyntä. Tämän aikavälin erityisesti peruskysynnälle etsittiin ennustetarkkuudeltaan parasta kvantitatiivista ennustemenetelmää. Koe-ennustuksia tehtiin liukuvilla keskiarvoilla, klassisella aikasarja-analyysillä, eksponentiaalisen tasoituksen menetelmällä, Holtin lineaarisella eksponenttitasoituksen menetelmällä, Wintersin kausittaisella eksponentiaalisella tasoituksella, autoregressiivisillä malleilla, Box-Jenkinsin menetelmällä ja regressioanalyysillä. Myös neuroverkon opettamista historiadatalla ja käyttämistä ongelman ratkaisun apuna kokeiltiin.Koe-ennustuksien tulosten perusteella ennustemenetelmien toimintaa analysoitiin jatkokehitystä varten. Ennustetarkkuuden lisäksi arvioitiin mallin yksinkertaisuutta, helppokäyttöisyyttä ja sopivuutta yrityksen monien tuotteiden ennustamiseen. Myös kausivaihteluihin, trendeihin ja erikoispäiviin kiinnitettiin huomiota. Ennustetarkkuuden huomattiin parantuvan selvästi peruskysyntää ennustettaessa, jos ensin historiadata esikäsittelemällä puhdistettiin erikoispäivistä ja –viikoista.

Advanced control methods for reducing nitrogen oxides in a fluidized bed boiler

Tämän työn tarkoituksena oli löytää keinoja erään leijukerroskattilan typenoksidipäästöjen vähentämiseksi. Koska päästöt olivat jo alunperin alhaiset leijukerrostekniikan ja hybridin SNCR/SCR –typenpoistolaitteiston ansiosta, päätettiin päästöjä lähteä vähentämään parantamalla ammoniakkiruiskutuksen säätöä. Alkuperäinen ammoniakkiruiskutuksen säätö oli liian hidas, jotta satunnaisten häiriöiden aiheuttamat typenoksidipiikit olisi pystytty poistamaan. Ammoniakkiruiskutusta parannettiin lisäämällä jokaiseen ammoniakkilinjaan mäntäpumput, joiden avulla ammoniakkia voidaan syöttää sinne, missä sitä eniten tarvitaan. Ammoniakkiruiskutuksen säätöön kehitettiin uusi sumeaan logiikkaan perustuva säätäjä. Myös muita kehittyneitä säätömenetelmiä kuten neuroverkkoa hyödynnettiin säätäjän kehityksessä. Ammoniakkiruiskutuksen säätäjää testattiin menestyksekkäästi Ruotsissa Brista Kraftin Märstassa sijaitsevalla voimalaitoksella

Ohjelmistoarkkitehtuurien vertailu ja valinta monimediatuotteelle. CASE: AVO

Työn tavoitteena oli tutkia ja vertailla komponenttipohjaisia ohjelmistoarkkitehtuureita (Microsoft .NET ja J2EE). Työn tarkoituksena oli valita ohjelmistoarkkitehtuuri uudelle neuroverkkopohjaiselle urasuunnittelupalvelulle. Tässä työssä selvitettiin myös, miten luodaan kansainvälistettäviä ja lokalisoitavia sovelluksia, sekä kuinka Web-, Windows-, mobiili-, puhe- ja Digi-TV -käyttöliittymät soveltuvat uudelle urasuunnittelupalvelulle. Tutkimustyössä käytettiin alan kirjallisuutta, Microsoftin ja Sun Microsystemsin Web-sivuja. Tutkimustyössä analysoitiin Microsoft Pet Shop- ja Sun Microsystemsin Java Pet Store -esimerkkisovellusten suorituskykyvertailua. Analyysituloksiin perustuen urasuunnittelupalvelussa suositellaan käytettäväksi J2EE-arkkitehtuuria. Uudelle urasuunnittelupalvelulle toimenpide-ehdotus on komponenttipohjainen järjestelmä Web-, puhe- ja Digi-TV -käyttöliittymillä ja personoidulla sisällöllä. Järjestelmä tehdään viisivaiheisena hankkeena, johon sisältyy pilottitestejä. Uuteen urasuunnittelupalveluun liitetään mukaan opiskelijat, oppilaitokset ja työnantajat sekä asiantuntijoita neuroverkon opetusdatan määrittämiseen. Palvelu perustuu integroituun tietokantaan. Eri osajärjestelmissä tuotettua tietoa voidaan hyödyntää kaikkialla urasuunnittelupalvelussa.

Advanced orbital pipe welding

Since the introduction of automatic orbital welding in pipeline application in 1961, significant improvements have been obtained in orbital pipe welding systems. Requirement of more productive welding systems for pipeline application forces manufacturers to innovate new advanced systems and welding processes for orbital welding method. Various methods have been used to make welding process adaptive, such as visual sensing, passive visual sensing, real-time intelligent control, scan welding technique, multi laser vision sensor, thermal scanning, adaptive image processing, neural network model, machine vision, and optical sensing. Numerous studies are reviewed and discussed in this Master’s thesis and based on a wide range of experiments which already have been accomplished by different researches the vision sensor are reported to be the best choice for adaptive orbital pipe welding system. Also, in this study the most welding processes as well as the most pipe variations welded by orbital welding systems mainly for oil and gas pipeline applications are explained. The welding results show that Gas Metal Arc Welding (GMAW) and its variants like Surface Tension Transfer (STT) and modified short circuit are the most preferred processes in the welding of root pass and can be replaced to the Gas Tungsten Arc Welding (GTAW) in many applications. Furthermore, dual-tandem gas metal arc welding technique is currently considered the most efficient method in the welding of fill pass. Orbital GTAW process mostly is applied for applications ranging from single run welding of thin walled stainless tubes to multi run welding of thick walled pipes. Flux cored arc welding process is faster process with higher deposition rate and recently this process is getting more popular in pipe welding applications. Also, combination of gas metal arc welding and Nd:YAG laser has shown acceptable results in girth welding of land pipelines for oil and gas industry. This Master’s thesis can be implemented as a guideline in welding of pipes and tubes to achieve higher quality and efficiency. Also, this research can be used as a base material for future investigations to supplement present finding.

Intelligent mapping of stresses in a hydraulic crane

Continuous loading and unloading can cause breakdown of cranes. In seeking solution to this problem, the use of an intelligent control system for improving the fatigue life of cranes in the control of mechatronics has been under study since 1994. This research focuses on the use of neural networks as possibilities of developing algorithm to map stresses on a crane. The intelligent algorithm was designed to be a part of the system of a crane, the design process started with solid works, ANSYS and co-simulation using MSc Adams software which was incorporated in MATLAB-Simulink and finally MATLAB neural network (NN) for the optimization process. The flexibility of the boom accounted for the accuracy of the maximum stress results in the ADAMS model. The flexibility created in ANSYS produced more accurate results compared to the flexibility model in ADAMS/View using discrete link. The compatibility between.ADAMS and ANSYS softwares was paramount in the efficiency and the accuracy of the results. Von Mises stresses analysis was more suitable for this thesis work because the hydraulic boom was made from construction steel FE-510 of steel grade S355 with yield strength of 355MPa. Von Mises theory was good for further analysis due to ductility of the material and the repeated tensile and shear loading. Neural network predictions for the maximum stresses were then compared with the co-simulation results for accuracy, and the comparison showed that the results obtained from neural network model were sufficiently accurate in predicting the maximum stresses on the boom than co-simulation.

Potential and Challenges of Analog Reconfigurable Computation in Modern and Future CMOS

In this work, the feasibility of the floating-gate technology in analog computing platforms in a scaled down general-purpose CMOS technology is considered. When the technology is scaled down the performance of analog circuits tends to get worse because the process parameters are optimized for digital transistors and the scaling involves the reduction of supply voltages. Generally, the challenge in analog circuit design is that all salient design metrics such as power, area, bandwidth and accuracy are interrelated. Furthermore, poor flexibility, i.e. lack of reconfigurability, the reuse of IP etc., can be considered the most severe weakness of analog hardware. On this account, digital calibration schemes are often required for improved performance or yield enhancement, whereas high flexibility/reconfigurability can not be easily achieved. Here, it is discussed whether it is possible to work around these obstacles by using floating-gate transistors (FGTs), and analyze problems associated with the practical implementation. FGT technology is attractive because it is electrically programmable and also features a charge-based built-in non-volatile memory. Apart from being ideal for canceling the circuit non-idealities due to process variations, the FGTs can also be used as computational or adaptive elements in analog circuits. The nominal gate oxide thickness in the deep sub-micron (DSM) processes is too thin to support robust charge retention and consequently the FGT becomes leaky. In principle, non-leaky FGTs can be implemented in a scaled down process without any special masks by using “double”-oxide transistors intended for providing devices that operate with higher supply voltages than general purpose devices. However, in practice the technology scaling poses several challenges which are addressed in this thesis. To provide a sufficiently wide-ranging survey, six prototype chips with varying complexity were implemented in four different DSM process nodes and investigated from this perspective. The focus is on non-leaky FGTs, but the presented autozeroing floating-gate amplifier (AFGA) demonstrates that leaky FGTs may also find a use. The simplest test structures contain only a few transistors, whereas the most complex experimental chip is an implementation of a spiking neural network (SNN) which comprises thousands of active and passive devices. More precisely, it is a fully connected (256 FGT synapses) two-layer spiking neural network (SNN), where the adaptive properties of FGT are taken advantage of. A compact realization of Spike Timing Dependent Plasticity (STDP) within the SNN is one of the key contributions of this thesis. Finally, the considerations in this thesis extend beyond CMOS to emerging nanodevices. To this end, one promising emerging nanoscale circuit element - memristor - is reviewed and its applicability for analog processing is considered. Furthermore, it is discussed how the FGT technology can be used to prototype computation paradigms compatible with these emerging two-terminal nanoscale devices in a mature and widely available CMOS technology.

Stiffness based trajectory planning and feedforward based vibration suppression control of parallel robot machines

The dissertation proposes two control strategies, which include the trajectory planning and vibration suppression, for a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine, with the aim of attaining the satisfactory machining performance. For a given prescribed trajectory of the robot's end-effector in the Cartesian space, a set of trajectories in the robot's joint space are generated based on the best stiffness performance of the robot along the prescribed trajectory. To construct the required system-wide analytical stiffness model for the serial-parallel robot machine, a variant of the virtual joint method (VJM) is proposed in the dissertation. The modified method is an evolution of Gosselin's lumped model that can account for the deformations of a flexible link in more directions. The effectiveness of this VJM variant is validated by comparing the computed stiffness results of a flexible link with the those of a matrix structural analysis (MSA) method. The comparison shows that the numerical results from both methods on an individual flexible beam are almost identical, which, in some sense, provides mutual validation. The most prominent advantage of the presented VJM variant compared with the MSA method is that it can be applied in a flexible structure system with complicated kinematics formed in terms of flexible serial links and joints. Moreover, by combining the VJM variant and the virtual work principle, a systemwide analytical stiffness model can be easily obtained for mechanisms with both serial kinematics and parallel kinematics. In the dissertation, a system-wide stiffness model of a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine is constructed based on integration of the VJM variant and the virtual work principle. Numerical results of its stiffness performance are reported. For a kinematic redundant robot, to generate a set of feasible joints' trajectories for a prescribed trajectory of its end-effector, its system-wide stiffness performance is taken as the constraint in the joints trajectory planning in the dissertation. For a prescribed location of the end-effector, the robot permits an infinite number of inverse solutions, which consequently yields infinite kinds of stiffness performance. Therefore, a differential evolution (DE) algorithm in which the positions of redundant joints in the kinematics are taken as input variables was employed to search for the best stiffness performance of the robot. Numerical results of the generated joint trajectories are given for a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine, IWR (Intersector Welding/Cutting Robot), when a particular trajectory of its end-effector has been prescribed. The numerical results show that the joint trajectories generated based on the stiffness optimization are feasible for realization in the control system since they are acceptably smooth. The results imply that the stiffness performance of the robot machine deviates smoothly with respect to the kinematic configuration in the adjacent domain of its best stiffness performance. To suppress the vibration of the robot machine due to varying cutting force during the machining process, this dissertation proposed a feedforward control strategy, which is constructed based on the derived inverse dynamics model of target system. The effectiveness of applying such a feedforward control in the vibration suppression has been validated in a parallel manipulator in the software environment. The experimental study of such a feedforward control has also been included in the dissertation. The difficulties of modelling the actual system due to the unknown components in its dynamics is noticed. As a solution, a back propagation (BP) neural network is proposed for identification of the unknown components of the dynamics model of the target system. To train such a BP neural network, a modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm that can utilize an experimental input-output data set of the entire dynamic system is introduced in the dissertation. Validation of the BP neural network and the modified Levenberg- Marquardt algorithm is done, respectively, by a sinusoidal output approximation, a second order system parameters estimation, and a friction model estimation of a parallel manipulator, which represent three different application aspects of this method.

Spatial modeling techniques for mapping and characterization of acid sulfate soils

Acid sulfate (a.s.) soils constitute a major environmental issue. Severe ecological damage results from the considerable amounts of acidity and metals leached by these soils in the recipient watercourses. As even small hot spots may affect large areas of coastal waters, mapping represents a fundamental step in the management and mitigation of a.s. soil environmental risks (i.e. to target strategic areas). Traditional mapping in the field is time-consuming and therefore expensive. Additional more cost-effective techniques have, thus, to be developed in order to narrow down and define in detail the areas of interest. The primary aim of this thesis was to assess different spatial modeling techniques for a.s. soil mapping, and the characterization of soil properties relevant for a.s. soil environmental risk management, using all available data: soil and water samples, as well as datalayers (e.g. geological and geophysical). Different spatial modeling techniques were applied at catchment or regional scale. Two artificial neural networks were assessed on the Sirppujoki River catchment (c. 440 km2) located in southwestern Finland, while fuzzy logic was assessed on several areas along the Finnish coast. Quaternary geology, aerogeophysics and slope data (derived from a digital elevation model) were utilized as evidential datalayers. The methods also required the use of point datasets (i.e. soil profiles corresponding to known a.s. or non-a.s. soil occurrences) for training and/or validation within the modeling processes. Applying these methods, various maps were generated: probability maps for a.s. soil occurrence, as well as predictive maps for different soil properties (sulfur content, organic matter content and critical sulfide depth). The two assessed artificial neural networks (ANNs) demonstrated good classification abilities for a.s. soil probability mapping at catchment scale. Slightly better results were achieved using a Radial Basis Function (RBF) -based ANN than a Radial Basis Functional Link Net (RBFLN) method, narrowing down more accurately the most probable areas for a.s. soil occurrence and defining more properly the least probable areas. The RBF-based ANN also demonstrated promising results for the characterization of different soil properties in the most probable a.s. soil areas at catchment scale. Since a.s. soil areas constitute highly productive lands for agricultural purpose, the combination of a probability map with more specific soil property predictive maps offers a valuable toolset to more precisely target strategic areas for subsequent environmental risk management. Notably, the use of laser scanning (i.e. Light Detection And Ranging, LiDAR) data enabled a more precise definition of a.s. soil probability areas, as well as the soil property modeling classes for sulfur content and the critical sulfide depth. Given suitable training/validation points, ANNs can be trained to yield a more precise modeling of the occurrence of a.s. soils and their properties. By contrast, fuzzy logic represents a simple, fast and objective alternative to carry out preliminary surveys, at catchment or regional scale, in areas offering a limited amount of data. This method enables delimiting and prioritizing the most probable areas for a.s soil occurrence, which can be particularly useful in the field. Being easily transferable from area to area, fuzzy logic modeling can be carried out at regional scale. Mapping at this scale would be extremely time-consuming through manual assessment. The use of spatial modeling techniques enables the creation of valid and comparable maps, which represents an important development within the a.s. soil mapping process. The a.s. soil mapping was also assessed using water chemistry data for 24 different catchments along the Finnish coast (in all, covering c. 21,300 km2) which were mapped with different methods (i.e. conventional mapping, fuzzy logic and an artificial neural network). Two a.s. soil related indicators measured in the river water (sulfate content and sulfate/chloride ratio) were compared to the extent of the most probable areas for a.s. soils in the surveyed catchments. High sulfate contents and sulfate/chloride ratios measured in most of the rivers demonstrated the presence of a.s. soils in the corresponding catchments. The calculated extent of the most probable a.s. soil areas is supported by independent data on water chemistry, suggesting that the a.s. soil probability maps created with different methods are reliable and comparable.

Novel word learning ability in chronic post-stroke aphasia : variability and modality effects

Novel word learning has been rarely studied in people with aphasia (PWA), although it can provide a relatively pure measure of their learning potential, and thereby contribute to the development of effective aphasia treatment methods. The main aim of the present thesis was to explore the capacity of PWA for associative learning of word–referent pairings and cognitive-linguistic factors related to it. More specifically, the thesis examined learning and long-term maintenance of the learned pairings, the role of lexical-semantic abilities in learning as well as acquisition of phonological versus semantic information in associative novel word learning. Furthermore, the effect of modality on associative novel word learning and the neural underpinnings of successful learning were explored. The learning experiments utilized the Ancient Farming Equipment (AFE) paradigm that employs drawings of unfamiliar referents and their unfamiliar names. Case studies of Finnishand English-speaking people with chronic aphasia (n = 6) were conducted in the investigation. The learning results of PWA were compared to those of healthy control participants, and active production of the novel words and their semantic definitions was used as learning outcome measures. PWA learned novel word–novel referent pairings, but the variation between individuals was very wide, from more modest outcomes (Studies I–II) up to levels on a par with healthy individuals (Studies III–IV). In incidental learning of semantic definitions, none of the PWA reached the performance level of the healthy control participants. Some PWA maintained part of the learning outcomes up to months post-training, and one individual showed full maintenance of the novel words at six months post-training (Study IV). Intact lexical-semantic processing skills promoted learning in PWA (Studies I–II) but poor phonological short-term memory capacities did not rule out novel word learning. In two PWA with successful learning and long-term maintenance of novel word–novel referent pairings, learning relied on orthographic input while auditory input led to significantly inferior learning outcomes (Studies III–IV). In one of these individuals, this previously undetected modalityspecific learning ability was successfully translated into training with familiar but inaccessible everyday words (Study IV). Functional magnetic resonance imaging revealed that this individual had a disconnected dorsal speech processing pathway in the left hemisphere, but a right-hemispheric neural network mediated successful novel word learning via reading. Finally, the results of Study III suggested that the cognitive-linguistic profile may not always predict the optimal learning channel for an individual with aphasia. Small-scale learning probes seem therefore useful in revealing functional learning channels in post-stroke aphasia.

Underwater Remote Welding Technology for Offshore Structures

The construction of offshore structures, equipment and devices requires a high level of mechanical reliability in terms of strength, toughness and ductility. One major site for mechanical failure, the weld joint region, needs particularly careful examination, and weld joint quality has become a major focus of research in recent times. Underwater welding carried out offshore faces specific challenges affecting the mechanical reliability of constructions completed underwater. The focus of this thesis is on improvement of weld quality of underwater welding using control theory. This research work identifies ways of optimizing the welding process parameters of flux cored arc welding (FCAW) during underwater welding so as to achieve desired weld bead geometry when welding in a water environment. The weld bead geometry has no known linear relationship with the welding process parameters, which makes it difficult to determine a satisfactory weld quality. However, good weld bead geometry is achievable by controlling the welding process parameters. The doctoral dissertation comprises two sections. The first part introduces the topic of the research, discusses the mechanisms of underwater welding and examines the effect of the water environment on the weld quality of wet welding. The second part comprises four research papers examining different aspects of underwater wet welding and its control and optimization. Issues considered include the effects of welding process parameters on weld bead geometry, optimization of FCAW process parameters, and design of a control system for the purpose of achieving a desired bead geometry that can ensure a high level of mechanical reliability in welded joints of offshore structures. Artificial neural network systems and a fuzzy logic controller, which are incorporated in the control system design, and a hybrid of fuzzy and PID controllers are the major control dynamics used. This study contributes to knowledge of possible solutions for achieving similar high weld quality in underwater wet welding as found with welding in air. The study shows that carefully selected steels with very low carbon equivalent and proper control of the welding process parameters are essential in achieving good weld quality. The study provides a platform for further research in underwater welding. It promotes increased awareness of the need to improve the quality of underwater welding for offshore industries and thus minimize the risk of structural defects resulting from poor weld quality.

Central auditory processing and the acquisition of phonology in 2-year-old children with recurrent acute otitis media

Middle ear infections (acute otitis media, AOM) are among the most common infectious diseases in childhood, their incidence being greatest at the age of 6–12 months. Approximately 10–30% of children undergo repetitive periods of AOM, referred to as recurrent acute otitis media (RAOM). Middle ear fluid during an AOM episode causes, on average, 20–30 dB of hearing loss lasting from a few days to as much as a couple of months. It is well known that even a mild permanent hearing loss has an effect on language development but so far there is no consensus regarding the consequences of RAOM on childhood language acquisition. The results of studies on middle ear infections and language development have been partly discrepant and the exact effects of RAOM on the developing central auditory nervous system are as yet unknown. This thesis aims to examine central auditory processing and speech production among 2-year-old children with RAOM. Event-related potentials (ERPs) extracted from electroencephalography can be used to objectively investigate the functioning of the central auditory nervous system. For the first time this thesis has utilized auditory ERPs to study sound encoding and preattentive auditory discrimination of speech stimuli, and neural mechanisms of involuntary auditory attention in children with RAOM. Furthermore, the level of phonological development was studied by investigating the number and the quality of consonants produced by these children. Acquisition of consonant phonemes, which are harder to hear than vowels, is a good indicator of the ability to form accurate memory representations of ambient language and has not been studied previously in Finnish-speaking children with RAOM. The results showed that the cortical sound encoding was intact but the preattentive auditory discrimination of multiple speech sound features was atypical in those children with RAOM. Furthermore, their neural mechanisms of auditory attention differed from those of their peers, thus indicating that children with RAOM are atypically sensitive to novel but meaningless sounds. The children with RAOM also produced fewer consonants than their controls. Noticeably, they had a delay in the acquisition of word-medial consonants and the Finnish phoneme /s/, which is acoustically challenging to perceive compared to the other Finnish phonemes. The findings indicate the immaturity of central auditory processing in the children with RAOM, and this might also emerge in speech production. This thesis also showed that the effects of RAOM on central auditory processing are long-lasting because the children had healthy ears at the time of the study. An effective neural network for speech sound processing is a basic requisite of language acquisition, and RAOM in early childhood should be considered as a risk factor for language development.