35 resultados para phylogeography, consensus approach, ensemble modeling, Pleistocene, ENM, ecological niche modeling
Resumo:
In this thesis the main objective is to examine and model configuration system and related processes. When and where configuration information is created in product development process and how it is utilized in order-delivery process? These two processes are the essential part of the whole configuration system from the information point of view. Empirical part of the work was done as a constructive research inside a company that follows a mass customization approach. Data models and documentation are created for different development stages of the configuration system. A base data model already existed for new structures and relations between these structures. This model was used as the basis for the later data modeling work. Data models include different data structures, their key objects and attributes, and relations between. Representation of configuration rules for the to-be configuration system was defined as one of the key focus point. Further, it is examined how the customer needs and requirements information can be integrated into the product development process. Requirements hierarchy and classification system is presented. It is shown how individual requirement specifications can be connected for physical design structure via features by developing the existing base data model further.
Resumo:
The objective of the work has been to study why systems thinking should be used in combination with TQM, what are the main benefits of the integration and how it could best be done. The work analyzes the development of systems thinking and TQM with time and the main differences between them. The work defines prerequisites for adopting a systems approach and the organizational factors which embody the development of an efficient learning organization. The work proposes a model based on combination of an interactive management model and redesign to be used for application of systems approach with TQM in practice. The results of the work indicate that there are clear differences between systems thinking and TQM which justify their combination. Systems approach provides an additional complementary perspective to quality management. TQM is focused on optimizing operations at the operational level while interactive management and redesign of organization are focused on optimization operations at the conceptual level providing a holistic system for value generation. The empirical study demonstrates the applicability of the proposed model in one case study company but its application is tenable and possible also beyond this particular company. System dynamic modeling and other systems based techniques like cognitive mapping are useful methods for increasing understanding and learning about the behavior of systems. The empirical study emphasizes the importance of using a proper early warning system.
Resumo:
The use of domain-specific languages (DSLs) has been proposed as an approach to cost-e ectively develop families of software systems in a restricted application domain. Domain-specific languages in combination with the accumulated knowledge and experience of previous implementations, can in turn be used to generate new applications with unique sets of requirements. For this reason, DSLs are considered to be an important approach for software reuse. However, the toolset supporting a particular domain-specific language is also domain-specific and is per definition not reusable. Therefore, creating and maintaining a DSL requires additional resources that could be even larger than the savings associated with using them. As a solution, di erent tool frameworks have been proposed to simplify and reduce the cost of developments of DSLs. Developers of tool support for DSLs need to instantiate, customize or configure the framework for a particular DSL. There are di erent approaches for this. An approach is to use an application programming interface (API) and to extend the basic framework using an imperative programming language. An example of a tools which is based on this approach is Eclipse GEF. Another approach is to configure the framework using declarative languages that are independent of the underlying framework implementation. We believe this second approach can bring important benefits as this brings focus to specifying what should the tool be like instead of writing a program specifying how the tool achieves this functionality. In this thesis we explore this second approach. We use graph transformation as the basic approach to customize a domain-specific modeling (DSM) tool framework. The contributions of this thesis includes a comparison of di erent approaches for defining, representing and interchanging software modeling languages and models and a tool architecture for an open domain-specific modeling framework that e ciently integrates several model transformation components and visual editors. We also present several specific algorithms and tool components for DSM framework. These include an approach for graph query based on region operators and the star operator and an approach for reconciling models and diagrams after executing model transformation programs. We exemplify our approach with two case studies MICAS and EFCO. In these studies we show how our experimental modeling tool framework has been used to define tool environments for domain-specific languages.
Resumo:
Mathematical models often contain parameters that need to be calibrated from measured data. The emergence of efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods has made the Bayesian approach a standard tool in quantifying the uncertainty in the parameters. With MCMC, the parameter estimation problem can be solved in a fully statistical manner, and the whole distribution of the parameters can be explored, instead of obtaining point estimates and using, e.g., Gaussian approximations. In this thesis, MCMC methods are applied to parameter estimation problems in chemical reaction engineering, population ecology, and climate modeling. Motivated by the climate model experiments, the methods are developed further to make them more suitable for problems where the model is computationally intensive. After the parameters are estimated, one can start to use the model for various tasks. Two such tasks are studied in this thesis: optimal design of experiments, where the task is to design the next measurements so that the parameter uncertainty is minimized, and model-based optimization, where a model-based quantity, such as the product yield in a chemical reaction model, is optimized. In this thesis, novel ways to perform these tasks are developed, based on the output of MCMC parameter estimation. A separate topic is dynamical state estimation, where the task is to estimate the dynamically changing model state, instead of static parameters. For example, in numerical weather prediction, an estimate of the state of the atmosphere must constantly be updated based on the recently obtained measurements. In this thesis, a novel hybrid state estimation method is developed, which combines elements from deterministic and random sampling methods.
Resumo:
In this thesis, general approach is devised to model electrolyte sorption from aqueous solutions on solid materials. Electrolyte sorption is often considered as unwanted phenomenon in ion exchange and its potential as an independent separation method has not been fully explored. The solid sorbents studied here are porous and non-porous organic or inorganic materials with or without specific functional groups attached on the solid matrix. Accordingly, the sorption mechanisms include physical adsorption, chemisorption on the functional groups and partition restricted by electrostatic or steric factors. The model is tested in four Cases Studies dealing with chelating adsorption of transition metal mixtures, physical adsorption of metal and metalloid complexes from chloride solutions, size exclusion of electrolytes in nano-porous materials and electrolyte exclusion of electrolyte/non-electrolyte mixtures. The model parameters are estimated using experimental data from equilibrium and batch kinetic measurements, and they are used to simulate actual single-column fixed-bed separations. Phase equilibrium between the solution and solid phases is described using thermodynamic Gibbs-Donnan model and various adsorption models depending on the properties of the sorbent. The 3-dimensional thermodynamic approach is used for volume sorption in gel-type ion exchangers and in nano-porous adsorbents, and satisfactory correlation is obtained provided that both mixing and exclusion effects are adequately taken into account. 2-Dimensional surface adsorption models are successfully applied to physical adsorption of complex species and to chelating adsorption of transition metal salts. In the latter case, comparison is also made with complex formation models. Results of the mass transport studies show that uptake rates even in a competitive high-affinity system can be described by constant diffusion coefficients, when the adsorbent structure and the phase equilibrium conditions are adequately included in the model. Furthermore, a simplified solution based on the linear driving force approximation and the shrinking-core model is developed for very non-linear adsorption systems. In each Case Study, the actual separation is carried out batch-wise in fixed-beds and the experimental data are simulated/correlated using the parameters derived from equilibrium and kinetic data. Good agreement between the calculated and experimental break-through curves is usually obtained indicating that the proposed approach is useful in systems, which at first sight are very different. For example, the important improvement in copper separation from concentrated zinc sulfate solution at elevated temperatures can be correctly predicted by the model. In some cases, however, re-adjustment of model parameters is needed due to e.g. high solution viscosity.
Resumo:
Bone strain plays a major role as the activation signal for the bone (re)modeling process, which is vital for keeping bones healthy. Maintaining high bone mineral density reduces the chances of fracture in the event of an accident. Numerous studies have shown that bones can be strengthened with physical exercise. Several hypotheses have asserted that a stronger osteogenic (bone producing) effect results from dynamic exercise than from static exercise. These previous studies are based on short-term empirical research, which provide the motivation for justifying the experimental results with a solid mathematical background. The computer simulation techniques utilized in this work allow for non-invasive bone strain estimation during physical activity at any bone site within the human skeleton. All models presented in the study are threedimensional and actuated by muscle models to replicate the real conditions accurately. The objective of this work is to determine and present loading-induced bone strain values resulting from physical activity. It includes a comparison of strain resulting from four different gym exercises (knee flexion, knee extension, leg press, and squat) and walking, with the results reported for walking and jogging obtained from in-vivo measurements described in the literature. The objective is realized primarily by carrying out flexible multibody dynamics computer simulations. The dissertation combines the knowledge of finite element analysis and multibody simulations with experimental data and information available from medical field literature. Measured subject-specific motion data was coupled with forward dynamics simulation to provide natural skeletal movement. Bone geometries were defined using a reverse engineering approach based on medical imaging techniques. Both computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging were utilized to explore modeling differences. The predicted tibia bone strains during walking show good agreement with invivo studies found in the literature. Strain measurements were not available for gym exercises; therefore, the strain results could not be validated. However, the values seem reasonable when compared to available walking and running invivo strain measurements. The results can be used for exercise equipment design aimed at strengthening the bones as well as the muscles during workout. Clinical applications in post fracture recovery exercising programs could also be the target. In addition, the methodology introduced in this study, can be applied to investigate the effect of weightlessness on astronauts, who often suffer bone loss after long time spent in the outer space.
Resumo:
Parameter estimation still remains a challenge in many important applications. There is a need to develop methods that utilize achievements in modern computational systems with growing capabilities. Owing to this fact different kinds of Evolutionary Algorithms are becoming an especially perspective field of research. The main aim of this thesis is to explore theoretical aspects of a specific type of Evolutionary Algorithms class, the Differential Evolution (DE) method, and implement this algorithm as codes capable to solve a large range of problems. Matlab, a numerical computing environment provided by MathWorks inc., has been utilized for this purpose. Our implementation empirically demonstrates the benefits of a stochastic optimizers with respect to deterministic optimizers in case of stochastic and chaotic problems. Furthermore, the advanced features of Differential Evolution are discussed as well as taken into account in the Matlab realization. Test "toycase" examples are presented in order to show advantages and disadvantages caused by additional aspects involved in extensions of the basic algorithm. Another aim of this paper is to apply the DE approach to the parameter estimation problem of the system exhibiting chaotic behavior, where the well-known Lorenz system with specific set of parameter values is taken as an example. Finally, the DE approach for estimation of chaotic dynamics is compared to the Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system (EPPES) approach which was recently proposed as a possible solution for similar problems.
Resumo:
In this Master’s thesis agent-based modeling has been used to analyze maintenance strategy related phenomena. The main research question that has been answered was: what does the agent-based model made for this study tell us about how different maintenance strategy decisions affect profitability of equipment owners and maintenance service providers? Thus, the main outcome of this study is an analysis of how profitability can be increased in industrial maintenance context. To answer that question, first, a literature review of maintenance strategy, agent-based modeling and maintenance modeling and optimization was conducted. This review provided the basis for making the agent-based model. Making the model followed a standard simulation modeling procedure. With the simulation results from the agent-based model the research question was answered. Specifically, the results of the modeling and this study are: (1) optimizing the point in which a machine is maintained increases profitability for the owner of the machine and also the maintainer with certain conditions; (2) time-based pricing of maintenance services leads to a zero-sum game between the parties; (3) value-based pricing of maintenance services leads to a win-win game between the parties, if the owners of the machines share a substantial amount of their value to the maintainers; and (4) error in machine condition measurement is a critical parameter to optimizing maintenance strategy, and there is real systemic value in having more accurate machine condition measurement systems.
Resumo:
Longitudinal surveys are increasingly used to collect event history data on person-specific processes such as transitions between labour market states. Surveybased event history data pose a number of challenges for statistical analysis. These challenges include survey errors due to sampling, non-response, attrition and measurement. This study deals with non-response, attrition and measurement errors in event history data and the bias caused by them in event history analysis. The study also discusses some choices faced by a researcher using longitudinal survey data for event history analysis and demonstrates their effects. These choices include, whether a design-based or a model-based approach is taken, which subset of data to use and, if a design-based approach is taken, which weights to use. The study takes advantage of the possibility to use combined longitudinal survey register data. The Finnish subset of European Community Household Panel (FI ECHP) survey for waves 1–5 were linked at person-level with longitudinal register data. Unemployment spells were used as study variables of interest. Lastly, a simulation study was conducted in order to assess the statistical properties of the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting (IPCW) method in a survey data context. The study shows how combined longitudinal survey register data can be used to analyse and compare the non-response and attrition processes, test the missingness mechanism type and estimate the size of bias due to non-response and attrition. In our empirical analysis, initial non-response turned out to be a more important source of bias than attrition. Reported unemployment spells were subject to seam effects, omissions, and, to a lesser extent, overreporting. The use of proxy interviews tended to cause spell omissions. An often-ignored phenomenon classification error in reported spell outcomes, was also found in the data. Neither the Missing At Random (MAR) assumption about non-response and attrition mechanisms, nor the classical assumptions about measurement errors, turned out to be valid. Both measurement errors in spell durations and spell outcomes were found to cause bias in estimates from event history models. Low measurement accuracy affected the estimates of baseline hazard most. The design-based estimates based on data from respondents to all waves of interest and weighted by the last wave weights displayed the largest bias. Using all the available data, including the spells by attriters until the time of attrition, helped to reduce attrition bias. Lastly, the simulation study showed that the IPCW correction to design weights reduces bias due to dependent censoring in design-based Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard model estimators. The study discusses implications of the results for survey organisations collecting event history data, researchers using surveys for event history analysis, and researchers who develop methods to correct for non-sampling biases in event history data.
Resumo:
Investigation of high pressure pretreatment process for gold leaching is the objective of the present master's thesis. The gold ores and concentrates which cannot be easily treated by leaching process are called "refractory". These types of ores or concentrates often have high content of sulfur and arsenic that renders the precious metal inaccessible to the leaching agents. Since the refractory ores in gold manufacturing industry take a considerable share, the pressure oxidation method (autoclave method) is considered as one of the possible ways to overcome the related problems. Mathematical modeling is the main approach in this thesis which was used for investigation of high pressure oxidation process. For this task, available information from literature concerning this phenomenon, including chemistry, mass transfer and kinetics, reaction conditions, applied apparatus and application, was collected and studied. The modeling part includes investigation of pyrite oxidation kinetics in order to create a descriptive mathematical model. The following major steps are completed: creation of process model by using the available knowledge; estimation of unknown parameters and determination of goodness of the fit; study of the reliability of the model and its parameters.
Improving the competitiveness of electrolytic Zinc process by chemical reaction engineering approach
Resumo:
This doctoral thesis describes the development work performed on the leachand purification sections in the electrolytic zinc plant in Kokkola to increase the efficiency in these two stages, and thus the competitiveness of the plant. Since metallic zinc is a typical bulk product, the improvement of the competitiveness of a plant was mostly an issue of decreasing unit costs. The problems in the leaching were low recovery of valuable metals from raw materials, and that the available technology offered complicated and expensive processes to overcome this problem. In the purification, the main problem was consumption of zinc powder - up to four to six times the stoichiometric demand. This reduced the capacity of the plant as this zinc is re-circulated through the electrolysis, which is the absolute bottleneck in a zinc plant. Low selectivity gave low-grade and low-value precipitates for further processing to metallic copper, cadmium, cobalt and nickel. Knowledge of the underlying chemistry was poor and process interruptions causing losses of zinc production were frequent. Studies on leaching comprised the kinetics of ferrite leaching and jarosite precipitation, as well as the stability of jarosite in acidic plant solutions. A breakthrough came with the finding that jarosite could precipitate under conditions where ferrite would leach satisfactorily. Based on this discovery, a one-step process for the treatment of ferrite was developed. In the plant, the new process almost doubled the recovery of zinc from ferrite in the same equipment as the two-step jarosite process was operated in at that time. In a later expansion of the plant, investment savings were substantial compared to other technologies available. In the solution purification, the key finding was that Co, Ni, and Cu formed specific arsenides in the “hot arsenic zinc dust” step. This was utilized for the development of a three-step purification stage based on fluidized bed technology in all three steps, i.e. removal of Cu, Co and Cd. Both precipitation rates and selectivity increased, which strongly decreased the zinc powder consumption through a substantially suppressed hydrogen gas evolution. Better selectivity improved the value of the precipitates: cadmium, which caused environmental problems in the copper smelter, was reduced from 1-3% reported normally down to 0.05 %, and a cobalt cake with 15 % Co was easily produced in laboratory experiments in the cobalt removal. The zinc powder consumption in the plant for a solution containing Cu, Co, Ni and Cd (1000, 25, 30 and 350 mg/l, respectively), was around 1.8 g/l; i.e. only 1.4 times the stoichiometric demand – or, about 60% saving in powder consumption. Two processes for direct leaching of the concentrate under atmospheric conditions were developed, one of which was implemented in the Kokkola zinc plant. Compared to the existing pressure leach technology, savings were obtained mostly in investment. The scientific basis for the most important processes and process improvements is given in the doctoral thesis. This includes mathematical modeling and thermodynamic evaluation of experimental results and hypotheses developed. Five of the processes developed in this research and development program were implemented in the plant and are still operated. Even though these processes were developed with the focus on the plant in Kokkola, they can also be implemented at low cost in most of the zinc plants globally, and have thus a great significance in the development of the electrolytic zinc process in general.
Resumo:
Recently, due to the increasing total construction and transportation cost and difficulties associated with handling massive structural components or assemblies, there has been increasing financial pressure to reduce structural weight. Furthermore, advances in material technology coupled with continuing advances in design tools and techniques have encouraged engineers to vary and combine materials, offering new opportunities to reduce the weight of mechanical structures. These new lower mass systems, however, are more susceptible to inherent imbalances, a weakness that can result in higher shock and harmonic resonances which leads to poor structural dynamic performances. The objective of this thesis is the modeling of layered sheet steel elements, to accurately predict dynamic performance. During the development of the layered sheet steel model, the numerical modeling approach, the Finite Element Analysis and the Experimental Modal Analysis are applied in building a modal model of the layered sheet steel elements. Furthermore, in view of getting a better understanding of the dynamic behavior of layered sheet steel, several binding methods have been studied to understand and demonstrate how a binding method affects the dynamic behavior of layered sheet steel elements when compared to single homogeneous steel plate. Based on the developed layered sheet steel model, the dynamic behavior of a lightweight wheel structure to be used as the structure for the stator of an outer rotor Direct-Drive Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator designed for high-power wind turbines is studied.
Resumo:
The application of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and finite element analysis (FEA) has been growing rapidly in the various fields of science and technology. One of the areas of interest is in biomedical engineering. The altered hemodynamics inside the blood vessels plays a key role in the development of the arterial disease called atherosclerosis, which is the major cause of human death worldwide. Atherosclerosis is often treated with the stenting procedure to restore the normal blood flow. A stent is a tubular, flexible structure, usually made of metals, which is driven and expanded in the blocked arteries. Despite the success rate of the stenting procedure, it is often associated with the restenosis (re-narrowing of the artery) process. The presence of non-biological device in the artery causes inflammation or re-growth of atherosclerotic lesions in the treated vessels. Several factors including the design of stents, type of stent expansion, expansion pressure, morphology and composition of vessel wall influence the restenosis process. Therefore, the role of computational studies is crucial in the investigation and optimisation of the factors that influence post-stenting complications. This thesis focuses on the stent-vessel wall interactions followed by the blood flow in the post-stenting stage of stenosed human coronary artery. Hemodynamic and mechanical stresses were analysed in three separate stent-plaque-artery models. Plaque was modeled as a multi-layer (fibrous cap (FC), necrotic core (NC), and fibrosis (F)) and the arterial wall as a single layer domain. CFD/FEA simulations were performed using commercial software packages in several models mimicking the various stages and morphologies of atherosclerosis. The tissue prolapse (TP) of stented vessel wall, the distribution of von Mises stress (VMS) inside various layers of vessel wall, and the wall shear stress (WSS) along the luminal surface of the deformed vessel wall were measured and evaluated. The results revealed the role of the stenosis size, thickness of each layer of atherosclerotic wall, thickness of stent strut, pressure applied for stenosis expansion, and the flow condition in the distribution of stresses. The thicknesses of FC, and NC and the total thickness of plaque are critical in controlling the stresses inside the tissue. A small change in morphology of artery wall can significantly affect the distribution of stresses. In particular, FC is the most sensitive layer to TP and stresses, which could determine plaque’s vulnerability to rupture. The WSS is highly influenced by the deflection of artery, which in turn is dependent on the structural composition of arterial wall layers. Together with the stenosis size, their roles could play a decisive role in controlling the low values of WSS (<0.5 Pa) prone to restenosis. Moreover, the time dependent flow altered the percentage of luminal area with WSS values less than 0.5 Pa at different time instants. The non- Newtonian viscosity model of the blood properties significantly affects the prediction of WSS magnitude. The outcomes of this investigation will help to better understand the roles of the individual layers of atherosclerotic vessels and their risk to provoke restenosis at the post-stenting stage. As a consequence, the implementation of such an approach to assess the post-stented stresses will assist the engineers and clinicians in optimizing the stenting techniques to minimize the occurrence of restenosis.
Resumo:
Fluid particle breakup and coalescence are important phenomena in a number of industrial flow systems. This study deals with a gas-liquid bubbly flow in one wastewater cleaning application. Three-dimensional geometric model of a dispersion water system was created in ANSYS CFD meshing software. Then, numerical study of the system was carried out by means of unsteady simulations performed in ANSYS FLUENT CFD software. Single-phase water flow case was setup to calculate the entire flow field using the RNG k-epsilon turbulence model based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. Bubbly flow case was based on a computational fluid dynamics - population balance model (CFD-PBM) coupled approach. Bubble breakup and coalescence were considered to determine the evolution of the bubble size distribution. Obtained results are considered as steps toward optimization of the cleaning process and will be analyzed in order to make the process more efficient.
Resumo:
Malaria continues to infect millions and kill hundreds of thousands of people worldwide each year, despite over a century of research and attempts to control and eliminate this infectious disease. Challenges such as the development and spread of drug resistant malaria parasites, insecticide resistance to mosquitoes, climate change, the presence of individuals with subpatent malaria infections which normally are asymptomatic and behavioral plasticity in the mosquito hinder the prospects of malaria control and elimination. In this thesis, mathematical models of malaria transmission and control that address the role of drug resistance, immunity, iron supplementation and anemia, immigration and visitation, and the presence of asymptomatic carriers in malaria transmission are developed. A within-host mathematical model of severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria is also developed. First, a deterministic mathematical model for transmission of antimalarial drug resistance parasites with superinfection is developed and analyzed. The possibility of increase in the risk of superinfection due to iron supplementation and fortification in malaria endemic areas is discussed. The model results calls upon stakeholders to weigh the pros and cons of iron supplementation to individuals living in malaria endemic regions. Second, a deterministic model of transmission of drug resistant malaria parasites, including the inflow of infective immigrants, is presented and analyzed. The optimal control theory is applied to this model to study the impact of various malaria and vector control strategies, such as screening of immigrants, treatment of drug-sensitive infections, treatment of drug-resistant infections, and the use of insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor spraying of mosquitoes. The results of the model emphasize the importance of using a combination of all four controls tools for effective malaria intervention. Next, a two-age-class mathematical model for malaria transmission with asymptomatic carriers is developed and analyzed. In development of this model, four possible control measures are analyzed: the use of long-lasting treated mosquito nets, indoor residual spraying, screening and treatment of symptomatic, and screening and treatment of asymptomatic individuals. The numerical results show that a disease-free equilibrium can be attained if all four control measures are used. A common pitfall for most epidemiological models is the absence of real data; model-based conclusions have to be drawn based on uncertain parameter values. In this thesis, an approach to study the robustness of optimal control solutions under such parameter uncertainty is presented. Numerical analysis of the optimal control problem in the presence of parameter uncertainty demonstrate the robustness of the optimal control approach that: when a comprehensive control strategy is used the main conclusions of the optimal control remain unchanged, even if inevitable variability remains in the control profiles. The results provide a promising framework for the design of cost-effective strategies for disease control with multiple interventions, even under considerable uncertainty of model parameters. Finally, a separate work modeling the within-host Plasmodium falciparum infection in humans is presented. The developed model allows re-infection of already-infected red blood cells. The model hypothesizes that in severe malaria due to parasite quest for survival and rapid multiplication, the Plasmodium falciparum can be absorbed in the already-infected red blood cells which accelerates the rupture rate and consequently cause anemia. Analysis of the model and parameter identifiability using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods is presented.