Conventional and nonconventional Kramers-Kronig analysis in optical spectroscopy

This Master’s Thesis is dedicated to the investigation and testing conventional and nonconventional Kramers-Kronig relations on simulated and experimentally measured spectra. It is done for both linear and nonlinear optical spectral data. Big part of attention is paid to the new method of obtaining complex refractive index from a transmittance spectrum without direct information of the sample thickness. The latter method is coupled with terahertz tome-domain spectroscopy and Kramers-Kronig analysis applied for testing the validity of complex refractive index. In this research precision of data inversion is evaluated by root-mean square error. Testing of methods is made over different spectral range and implementation of this methods in future is considered.

Heat Demand Forecasting Models’ Development: Use of Data Mining Tools in SQL Server Analysis Services

This thesis introduces heat demand forecasting models which are generated by using data mining algorithms. The forecast spans one full day and this forecast can be used in regulating heat consumption of buildings. For training the data mining models, two years of heat consumption data from a case building and weather measurement data from Finnish Meteorological Institute are used. The thesis utilizes Microsoft SQL Server Analysis Services data mining tools in generating the data mining models and CRISP-DM process framework to implement the research. Results show that the built models can predict heat demand at best with mean average percentage errors of 3.8% for 24-h profile and 5.9% for full day. A deployment model for integrating the generated data mining models into an existing building energy management system is also discussed.

Phylogenetic Analysis of Avidins and Expression of Novel Avidins from Lactrodectus hesperus and Hoeflea phototrophica

Avidins (Avds) are homotetrameric or homodimeric glycoproteins with typically less than 130 amino acid residues per monomer. They form a highly stable, non-covalent complex with biotin (vitamin H) with Kd = 10-15 M (for chicken Avd). The best-studied Avds are the chicken Avd from Gallus gallus and streptavidin from Streptomyces avidinii, although other Avd studies have also included Avds from various origins, e.g., from frogs, fishes, mushrooms and from many different bacteria. Several engineered Avds have been reported as well, e.g., dual-chain Avds (dcAvds) and single-chain Avds (scAvds), circular permutants with up to four simultaneously modifiable ligand-binding sites. These engineered Avds along with the many native Avds have potential to be used in various nanobiotechnological applications. In this study, we made a structure-based alignment representing all currently available sequences of Avds and studied the evolutionary relationship of Avds using phylogenetic analysis. First, we created an initial multiple sequence alignment of Avds using 42 closely related sequences, guided by the known Avd crystal structures. Next, we searched for non-redundant Avd sequences from various online databases, including National Centre for Biotechnology Information and the Universal Protein Resource; the identified sequences were added to the initial alignment to expand it to a final alignment of 242 Avd sequences. The MEGA software package was used to create distance matrices and a phylogenetic tree. Bootstrap reproducibility of the tree was poor at multiple nodes and may reflect on several possible issues with the data: the sequence length compared is relatively short and, whereas some positions are highly conserved and functional, others can vary without impinging on the structure or the function, so there are few informative sites; it may be that periods of rapid duplication have led to paralogs and that the differences among them are within the error limit of the data; and there may be other yet unknown reasons. Principle component analysis applied to alternative distance data did segregate the major groups, and success is likely due to the multivariate consideration of all the information. Furthermore, based on our extensive alignment and phylogenetic analysis, we expressed two novel Avds, lacavidin from Lactrodectus Hesperus, a western black widow spider, and hoefavidin from Hoeflea phototrophica, an aerobic marine bacterium, the ultimate aim being to determine their X-ray structures. These Avds were selected because of their unique sequences: lacavidin has an N-terminal Avd-like domain but a long C-terminal overhang, whereas hoefavidin was thought to be a dimeric Avd. Both these Avds could be used as novel scaffolds in biotechnological applications.

Bayesian analysis of SEIR epidemic models

This thesis concerns the analysis of epidemic models. We adopt the Bayesian paradigm and develop suitable Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. This is done by considering an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, former Zaïre, 1995 as a case of SEIR epidemic models. We model the Ebola epidemic deterministically using ODEs and stochastically through SDEs to take into account a possible bias in each compartment. Since the model has unknown parameters, we use different methods to estimate them such as least squares, maximum likelihood and MCMC. The motivation behind choosing MCMC over other existing methods in this thesis is that it has the ability to tackle complicated nonlinear problems with large number of parameters. First, in a deterministic Ebola model, we compute the likelihood function by sum of square of residuals method and estimate parameters using the LSQ and MCMC methods. We sample parameters and then use them to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. From the sampled chain from the posterior, we test the convergence diagnostic and confirm the viability of the model. The results show that the Ebola model fits the observed onset data with high precision, and all the unknown model parameters are well identified. Second, we convert the ODE model into a SDE Ebola model. We compute the likelihood function using extended Kalman filter (EKF) and estimate parameters again. The motivation of using the SDE formulation here is to consider the impact of modelling errors. Moreover, the EKF approach allows us to formulate a filtered likelihood for the parameters of such a stochastic model. We use the MCMC procedure to attain the posterior distributions of the parameters of the SDE Ebola model drift and diffusion parts. In this thesis, we analyse two cases: (1) the model error covariance matrix of the dynamic noise is close to zero , i.e. only small stochasticity added into the model. The results are then similar to the ones got from deterministic Ebola model, even if methods of computing the likelihood function are different (2) the model error covariance matrix is different from zero, i.e. a considerable stochasticity is introduced into the Ebola model. This accounts for the situation where we would know that the model is not exact. As a results, we obtain parameter posteriors with larger variances. Consequently, the model predictions then show larger uncertainties, in accordance with the assumption of an incomplete model.