Time Varying Conditional Correlation Between Stock And Bond Returns: Evidence From CIVETS Nations

This thesis estimates long-run time variant conditional correlation between stock and bond returns of CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa) nations. Further, aims to analyse the presence of asymmetric volatility effect in both asset returns, as well as, obverses increment or decrement in conditional correlation during pre-crisis and crisis period, which lead to make a reliable diversification decision. The Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH model of Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model (Engle 2002), and the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC) GARCH model of Cappiello, Engle, and Sheppard (2006) were implemented in the study. The analyses present strong evidence of time-varying conditional correlation in CIVETS markets, excluding Vietnam, during 2005-2013. In addition, negative innovation effects were found in both conditional variance and correlation of the asset returns. The results of this study recommend investors to include financial assets from these markets in portfolios, in order to obtain better stock-bond diversification benefits, especially during high volatility periods.

Parameter identification in time series models

Time series analysis can be categorized into three different approaches: classical, Box-Jenkins, and State space. Classical approach makes a basement for the analysis and Box-Jenkins approach is an improvement of the classical approach and deals with stationary time series. State space approach allows time variant factors and covers up a broader area of time series analysis. This thesis focuses on parameter identifiablity of different parameter estimation methods such as LSQ, Yule-Walker, MLE which are used in the above time series analysis approaches. Also the Kalman filter method and smoothing techniques are integrated with the state space approach and MLE method to estimate parameters allowing them to change over time. Parameter estimation is carried out by repeating estimation and integrating with MCMC and inspect how well different estimation methods can identify the optimal model parameters. Identification is performed in probabilistic and general senses and compare the results in order to study and represent identifiability more informative way.

“Who is steering the ship and which constellation guides the way? Exploring transparency in the European Central Bank during the time of crisis”

This paper explores transparency in the decision-making of the European Central Bank (ECB). According to ECB´s definition, transparency means that the central bank provides the general public with all relevant information on its strategy, assessments and policy decisions as well as its procedures in an open, clear and timely manner. In this paper, however, the interpretation of transparency is somewhat broader: Information is freely available and directly accessible to those who will be affected by the decisions. Moreover, the individuals shall be able to master this material. ECB´s negative attitude towards publication of documents has demonstrated central bank´s reluctance to strive towards more extensive transparency. By virtue of the definition adopted by the ECB the bank itself is responsible for determining what is considered as relevant information. On the grounds of EU treaties, this paper assesses ECB`s accountability concentrating especially on transparency by employing principal-agent theory and constitutional approach. Traditionally, the definite mandate and the tenet of central bank independence have been used to justify the limited accountability. The de facto competence of the ECB has, however, considerably expanded as the central bank has decisively resorted to non-standard measures in order to combat the economic turbulences facing Europe. It is alleged that non-standard monetary policy constitutes a grey zone occasionally resembling economic policy or fiscal policy. Notwithstanding, the European Court of Justice has repeatedly approved these measures. This dynamic interpretation of the treaties seems to allow temporarily exceptions from the central bank´s primary objective during extraordinary times. Regardless, the paper suggests that the accountability nexus defined in the treaties is not sufficient in order to guarantee the accountability of the ECB after the adoption of the new, more active role. Enhanced transparency would help the ECB to maintain its credibility. Investing in the quality of monetary dialogue between the Parliament and the ECB appears to constitute the most adequate and practicable method to accomplish this intention. As a result of upgraded transparency the legitimacy of the central bank would not solely rest on its policy outputs.

Real-time simulation of multibody systems with applications for working mobile vehicles

This dissertation describes an approach for developing a real-time simulation for working mobile vehicles based on multibody modeling. The use of multibody modeling allows comprehensive description of the constrained motion of the mechanical systems involved and permits real-time solving of the equations of motion. By carefully selecting the multibody formulation method to be used, it is possible to increase the accuracy of the multibody model while at the same time solving equations of motion in real-time. In this study, a multibody procedure based on semi-recursive and augmented Lagrangian methods for real-time dynamic simulation application is studied in detail. In the semirecursive approach, a velocity transformation matrix is introduced to describe the dependent coordinates into relative (joint) coordinates, which reduces the size of the generalized coordinates. The augmented Lagrangian method is based on usage of global coordinates and, in that method, constraints are accounted using an iterative process. A multibody system can be modelled as either rigid or flexible bodies. When using flexible bodies, the system can be described using a floating frame of reference formulation. In this method, the deformation mode needed can be obtained from the finite element model. As the finite element model typically involves large number of degrees of freedom, reduced number of deformation modes can be obtained by employing model order reduction method such as Guyan reduction, Craig-Bampton method and Krylov subspace as shown in this study The constrained motion of the working mobile vehicles is actuated by the force from the hydraulic actuator. In this study, the hydraulic system is modeled using lumped fluid theory, in which the hydraulic circuit is divided into volumes. In this approach, the pressure wave propagation in the hoses and pipes is neglected. The contact modeling is divided into two stages: contact detection and contact response. Contact detection determines when and where the contact occurs, and contact response provides the force acting at the collision point. The friction between tire and ground is modelled using the LuGre friction model, which describes the frictional force between two surfaces. Typically, the equations of motion are solved in the full matrices format, where the sparsity of the matrices is not considered. Increasing the number of bodies and constraint equations leads to the system matrices becoming large and sparse in structure. To increase the computational efficiency, a technique for solution of sparse matrices is proposed in this dissertation and its implementation demonstrated. To assess the computing efficiency, augmented Lagrangian and semi-recursive methods are implemented employing a sparse matrix technique. From the numerical example, the results show that the proposed approach is applicable and produced appropriate results within the real-time period.

Dynamic capabilities as enablers of value co-creation between an MBA school and its students

This study presents an understanding of how a U.S. based, international MBA school has been able to achieve competitive advantage within a relatively short period of time. A framework is built to comprehend how the dynamic capability and value co-creation theories are connected and to understand how the dynamic capabilities have enabled value co-creation to happen between the school and its students, leading to such competitive advantage for the school. The data collection method followed a qualitative single-case study with a process perspective. Seven semi-structured interviews were made in September and October of 2015; one current employee of the MBA school was interviewed, with the other six being graduates and/or former employees of the MBA school. In addition, the researcher has worked as a recruiter at the MBA school, enabling to build bridges and a coherent whole of the empirical findings. Data analysis was conducted by first identifying themes from interviews, after which a narrative was written and a causal network model was built. Thus, a combination of thematic analysis, narrative and grounded theory were used as data analysis methods. This study finds that value co-creation is enabled by the dynamic capabilities of the MBA school; also capabilities would not be dynamic if value co-creation did not take place. Thus, this study presents that even though the two theories represent different level analyses, they are intertwined and together they can help to explain competitive advantage. The MBA case school’s dynamic capabilities are identified to be the sales & marketing capabilities and international market creation capabilities, thus the study finds that the MBA school does not only co-create value with existing students (customers) in the school setting, but instead, most of the value co-creation happens between the school and the student cohorts (network) already in the recruiting phase. Therefore, as a theoretical implication, the network should be considered as part of the context. The main value created seem to lie in the MBA case school’s international setting & networks. MBA schools around the world can learn from this study; schools should try to find their own niche and specialize, based on their own values and capabilities. With a differentiating focus and a unique and practical content, the schools can and should be well-marketed and proactively sold in order to receive more student applications and enhance competitive advantage. Even though an MBA school can effectively be treated as a business, as the study shows, the main emphasis should still be on providing quality education. Good content with efficient marketing can be the winning combination for an MBA school.

Dynamic ecosystems under anthropogenic stress : how does macrotidal sandy fauna respond to green tides?

Highly dynamic systems, often considered as resilient systems, are characterised by abiotic and biotic processes under continuous and strong changes in space and time. Because of this variability, the detection of overlapping anthropogenic stress is challenging. Coastal areas harbour dynamic ecosystems in the form of open sandy beaches, which cover the vast majority of the world’s ice-free coastline. These ecosystems are currently threatened by increasing human-induced pressure, among which mass-development of opportunistic macroalgae (mainly composed of Chlorophyta, so called green tides), resulting from the eutrophication of coastal waters. The ecological impact of opportunistic macroalgal blooms (green tides, and blooms formed by other opportunistic taxa), has long been evaluated within sheltered and non-tidal ecosystems. Little is known, however, on how more dynamic ecosystems, such as open macrotidal sandy beaches, respond to such stress. This thesis assesses the effects of anthropogenic stress on the structure and the functioning of highly dynamic ecosystems using sandy beaches impacted by green tides as a study case. The thesis is based on four field studies, which analyse natural sandy sediment benthic community dynamics over several temporal (from month to multi-year) and spatial (from local to regional) scales. In this thesis, I report long-lasting responses of sandy beach benthic invertebrate communities to green tides, across thousands of kilometres and over seven years; and highlight more pronounced responses of zoobenthos living in exposed sandy beaches compared to semi-exposed sands. Within exposed sandy sediments, and across a vertical scale (from inshore to nearshore sandy habitats), I also demonstrate that the effects of the presence of algal mats on intertidal benthic invertebrate communities is more pronounced than that on subtidal benthic invertebrate assemblages, but also than on flatfish communities. Focussing on small-scale variations in the most affected faunal group (i.e. benthic invertebrates living at low shore), this thesis reveals a decrease in overall beta-diversity along a eutrophication-gradient manifested in the form of green tides, as well as the increasing importance of biological variables in explaining ecological variability of sandy beach macrobenthic assemblages along the same gradient. To illustrate the processes associated with the structural shifts observed where green tides occurred, I investigated the effects of high biomasses of opportunistic macroalgae (Ulva spp.) on the trophic structure and functioning of sandy beaches. This work reveals a progressive simplification of sandy beach food web structure and a modification of energy pathways over time, through direct and indirect effects of Ulva mats on several trophic levels. Through this thesis I demonstrate that highly dynamic systems respond differently (e.g. shift in δ13C, not in δ15N) and more subtly (e.g. no mass-mortality in benthos was found) to anthropogenic stress compared to what has been previously shown within more sheltered and non-tidal systems. Obtaining these results would not have been possible without the approach used through this work; I thus present a framework coupling field investigations with analytical approaches to describe shifts in highly variable ecosystems under human-induced stress.

Dynamic model development of adiabatic compressed air energy storage

The share of variable renewable energy in electricity generation has seen exponential growth during the recent decades, and due to the heightened pursuit of environmental targets, the trend is to continue with increased pace. The two most important resources, wind and insolation both bear the burden of intermittency, creating a need for regulation and posing a threat to grid stability. One possibility to deal with the imbalance between demand and generation is to store electricity temporarily, which was addressed in this thesis by implementing a dynamic model of adiabatic compressed air energy storage (CAES) with Apros dynamic simulation software. Based on literature review, the existing models due to their simplifications were found insufficient for studying transient situations, and despite of its importance, the investigation of part load operation has not yet been possible with satisfactory precision. As a key result of the thesis, the cycle efficiency at design point was simulated to be 58.7%, which correlated well with literature information, and was validated through analytical calculations. The performance at part load was validated against models shown in literature, showing good correlation. By introducing wind resource and electricity demand data to the model, grid operation of CAES was studied. In order to enable the dynamic operation, start-up and shutdown sequences were approximated in dynamic environment, as far as is known, the first time, and a user component for compressor variable guide vanes (VGV) was implemented. Even in the current state, the modularly designed model offers a framework for numerous studies. The validity of the model is limited by the accuracy of VGV correlations at part load, and in addition the implementation of heat losses to the thermal energy storage is necessary to enable longer simulations. More extended use of forecasts is one of the important targets of development, if the system operation is to be optimised in future.