Factors Affecting the Forecasting Accuracy of Diffusion Models

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli tarkastella innovaatioiden leviämismallien ennustetarkkuuteen vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Tutkielmassa ennustettiin logistisella mallilla matkapuhelinliittymien leviämistä kolmessa Euroopan maassa: Suomessa, Ranskassa ja Kreikassa. Teoriaosa keskittyi innovaatioiden leviämisen ennustamiseen leviämismallien avulla. Erityisesti painotettiin mallien ennustuskykyä ja niiden käytettävyyttä eri tilanteissa. Empiirisessä osassa keskityttiin ennustamiseen logistisella leviämismallilla, joka kalibroitiin eri tavoin koostetuilla aikasarjoilla. Näin tehtyjä ennusteita tarkasteltiin tiedon kokoamistasojen vaikutusten selvittämiseksi. Tutkimusasetelma oli empiirinen, mikä sisälsi logistisen leviämismallin ennustetarkkuuden tutkimista otosdatan kokoamistasoa muunnellen. Leviämismalliin syötettävä data voidaan kerätä kuukausittain ja operaattorikohtaisesti vaikuttamatta ennustetarkkuuteen. Dataan on sisällytettävä leviämiskäyrän käännöskohta, eli pitkän aikavälin huippukysyntäpiste.

Business models enhancing the diffusion of mobile Internet in emerging markets

Tämän tutkimuksen päätavoitteena oli selvittää, millaiset liiketoimintamallit soveltuvat mobiilin internet-liiketoiminnan harjoittamiseen kehittyvillä markkinoilla. Tavoitteena oli myös selvittää tekijöitä, jotka vaikuttavat mobiilin internetin diffuusioon. Tutkimus tehtiin käyttäen sekä kvantitatiivista että kvalitatiivista tutkimusmenetelmää. Klusterianalyysin avulla 40 Euroopan maasta muodostettiin sisäisesti homogeenisiä maaklustereita. Näiden klustereiden avulla oli mahdollista suunnitella erityyppisille markkinoille soveltuvat liiketoimintamallit. Haastatteluissa selvitettiin asiantuntijoiden näkemyksiä tekijöistä, jotka vaikuttavat mobiilin internetin diffuusioon kehittyvillä markkinoilla. Tutkimuksessa saatiin selville, että tärkeimmät liiketoimintamallin elementit kehittyvillä markkinoilla ovat hinnoittelu, arvotarjooma ja arvoverkko. Puutteellisen kiinteän verkon todettiin olevan yksi tärkeimmistä mobiilin internetin diffuusiota edistävistä tekijöistä kehittyvillä markkinoilla.

Diffusion of Administrative Innovation: TQM Implementation and Effectiveness in a Global

The main objective of this dissertation is to create new knowledge on an administrative innovation, its adoption, diffusion and finally its effectiveness. In this dissertation the administrative innovation is approached through a widely utilized management philosophy, namely the total quality management (TQM) strategy. TQM operationalizes a self-assessment procedure, which is based on continual improvement principles and measuring the improvements. This dissertation also captures the theme of change management as it analyzes the adoption and diffusion of the administrative innovation. It identifies innovation characteristics as well as organisational and individual factors explaining the adoption and implementation. As a special feature, this study also explores the effectiveness of the innovation based on objective data. For studying the administrative innovation (TQM model), a multinational Case Company provides a versatile ground for a deep, longitudinal analysis. The Case Company started the adoption systematically in the mid 1980s in some of its units. As part of their strategic planning today, the procedure is in use throughout the entire global company. The empirical story begins from the innovation adoption decision that was made in the Case Company over 22 years ago. In order to be able to capture the right atmosphere and backgrounds leading to the adoption decision, key informants from that time were interviewed, since the main target was to clarify the dynamics of how an administrative innovation develops. In addition, archival material was collected and studied, available memos and data relating to the innovation, innovation adoption and later to the implementation contained altogether 20500 pages of documents. A survey was furthermore conducted at the end of 2006 focusing on questions related to the innovation, organization and leadership characteristics and the response rate totalled up to 54%. For measuring the effectiveness of the innovation implementation, the needed longitudinal objective performance data was collected. This data included the profit unit level experience of TQM, the development of the self assessment scores per profit unit and performance data per profit unit measured with profitability, productivity and customer satisfaction. The data covered the years 1995-2006. As a result, the prerequisites for the successful adoption of an administrative innovation were defined, such as the top management involvement, support of the change agents and effective tools for implementation and measurement. The factors with the greatest effect on the depth of the implementation were the timing of the adoption and formalization. The results also indicated that the TQM model does have an effect on the company performance measured with profitability, productivity and customer satisfaction. Consequently this thesis contributes to the present literature (i) by taking into its scope an administrative innovation and focusing on the whole innovation implementation process, from the adoption, through diffusion until its consequences, (ii) because the studied factors with an effect on the innovation adoption and diffusion are multifaceted and grouped into individual, organizational and environmental factors, and a strong emphasis is put on the role of the individual change agents and (iii) by measuring the depth and consistency of the administrative innovation. This deep analysis was possible due to the availability of longitudinal data with triangulation possibilities.

Modeling of Gold Cyanidation

The chemistry of gold dissolution in alkaline cyanide solution has continually received attention and new rate equations expressing the gold leaching are still developed. The effect of leaching parameters on gold gold cyanidation is studied in this work in order to optimize the leaching process. A gold leaching model, based on the well-known shrinking-core model, is presented in this work. It is proposed that the reaction takes place at the reacting particle surface which is continuously reduced as the reaction proceeds. The model parameters are estimated by comparing experimental data and simulations. The experimental data used in this work was obtained from Ling et al. (1996) and de Andrade Lima and Hodouin (2005). Two different rate equations, where the unreacted amount of gold is considered in one equation, are investigated. In this work, it is presented that the reaction at the surface is the rate controlling step since there is no internal diffusion limitation. The model considering the effect of non-reacting gold shows that the reaction orders are consistent with the experimental observations reported by Ling et al. (1996) and de Andrade Lima and Hodouin (2005). However, it should be noted that the model obtained in this work is based on assumptions of no side reactions, no solid-liquid mass transfer resistances and no effect from temperature.

Sinkkirikasteen liukenemisnopeuteen vaikuttavat tekijät ja sinkkirikasteen suoraliuotuksen mallintaminen

Työn kirjallisuusosassa selvitettiin eri tekijöiden (lämpötila, paine, mineralogia, partikkelikoko, sekoitus, kiintoainepitoisuus, liuoksen happo-, rauta- ja happipitoisuus) vaikutusta sinkkirikasteen suoraliuotusprosessin tärkeimpiin ilmiöihin (diffuusio, aineensiirto, reaktiokinetiikka). Kirjallisuusosassa kartoitettiin myös tämän hetkistä tietämystä niistä tekijöistä, jotka ovat oleellisia, kun sinkkirikasteen suoraliuotusprosessia mallinnetaan. Näitä tekijöitä ovat: sinkkirikasteiden liuotuksen kemia, sinkkirikasteiden liuotuksen kinetiikka ja mekanismit, kaasuneste aineensiirto ja kiinteäneste aineensiirto. Lisäksi selvitettiin millä tavoin aikaisemmissa tutkimuksissa sinkkirikasteiden suoraliuotusta on mallinnettu. Mallinnusosassa käsiteltiin atmosfääristä sinkkirikasteen suoraliuotusta, jossa hapettimena toimi ferri(III)rauta. Mallintamisessa käytettiin kirjallisuudessa esitettyjä mittaustuloksia ja mallintaminen tehtiin Modest tietokoneohjelmistolla. Työssä tehty atmosfäärisen suoraliuotuksen mallintaminen labo-ratoriomittakaavassa (laimeat liuokset ja pienet kiintoainepitoisuudet) antoi lupaavia tuloksia. Ongelmia mallin ennustuksen kanssa esiintyi pienissä happopitoisuuksissa, alhaisissa lämpötiloissa sekä pienillä ja suurilla partikkeleilla. Työn kirjallisuusosassa tunnistettiin ne ongelmakohdat, jotka vaativat lisätutkimuksia, jotta sinkkirikasteen atmosfääriselle suoraliuotukselle pystytään kehittämään simulointimalli. Näitä ovat: 1. Hapen liukoisuus ja aineensiirto teollisuuden käyttämissä sinkkirikastelietteissä, 2. Sopivien mittaustulosten puuttuminen, jotta atmosfääristä suoraliuotusta, jossa O2 ja Fe3+ toimivat hapettimena voitaisiin mallintaa, 3. Kiinteäneste aineensiirron merkitys sinkkirikasteen suoraliuotuksessa. Mallinnusosassa osoitettiin, että mekanistisella mallintamisella voidaan simuloida sinkkirikasteen atmosfääristä suoraliuotusta ainakin laboratoriomittakaavassa. Työn perusteella voidaan todeta, että sinkkirikasteen atmosfääriselle suoraliuotukselle voidaan työssä ehdotettujen jatkotutkimusten avulla kehittää numeerinen mekanistinen malli, jolla atmosfääristä sinkkirikasteiden suoraliuotusprosessia voidaan simuloida eri olosuhteissa.

Modeling reaction kinetics and mass transfer in ozonation in water solutions

This dissertation is based on four articles dealing with modeling of ozonation. The literature part of this considers some models for hydrodynamics in bubble column simulation. A literature review of methods for obtaining mass transfer coefficients is presented. The methods presented to obtain mass transfer are general models and can be applied to any gas-liquid system. Ozonation reaction models and methods for obtaining stoichiometric coefficients and reaction rate coefficients for ozonation reactions are discussed in the final section of the literature part. In the first article, ozone gas-liquid mass transfer into water in a bubble column was investigated for different pH values. A more general method for estimation of mass transfer and Henry’s coefficient was developed from the Beltrán method. The ozone volumetric mass transfer coefficient and the Henry’s coefficient were determined simultaneously by parameter estimation using a nonlinear optimization method. A minor dependence of the Henry’s law constant on pH was detected at the pH range 4 - 9. In the second article, a new method using the axial dispersion model for estimation of ozone self-decomposition kinetics in a semi-batch bubble column reactor was developed. The reaction rate coefficients for literature equations of ozone decomposition and the gas phase dispersion coefficient were estimated and compared with the literature data. The reaction order in the pH range 7-10 with respect to ozone 1.12 and 0.51 the hydroxyl ion were obtained, which is in good agreement with literature. The model parameters were determined by parameter estimation using a nonlinear optimization method. Sensitivity analysis was conducted using object function method to obtain information about the reliability and identifiability of the estimated parameters. In the third article, the reaction rate coefficients and the stoichiometric coefficients in the reaction of ozone with the model component p-nitrophenol were estimated at low pH of water using nonlinear optimization. A novel method for estimation of multireaction model parameters in ozonation was developed. In this method the concentration of unknown intermediate compounds is presented as a residual COD (chemical oxygen demand) calculated from the measured COD and the theoretical COD for the known species. The decomposition rate of p-nitrophenol on the pathway producing hydroquinone was found to be about two times faster than the p-nitrophenol decomposition rate on the pathway producing 4- nitrocatechol. In the fourth article, the reaction kinetics of p-nitrophenol ozonation was studied in a bubble column at pH 2. Using the new reaction kinetic model presented in the previous article, the reaction kinetic parameters, rate coefficients, and stoichiometric coefficients as well as the mass transfer coefficient were estimated with nonlinear estimation. The decomposition rate of pnitrophenol was found to be equal both on the pathway producing hydroquinone and on the path way producing 4-nitrocathecol. Comparison of the rate coefficients with the case at initial pH 5 indicates that the p-nitrophenol degradation producing 4- nitrocathecol is more selective towards molecular ozone than the reaction producing hydroquinone. The identifiability and reliability of the estimated parameters were analyzed with the Marcov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. @All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the author.

Reaction Kinetics and Viscosity Modelling in the Fusion Syntheses of Ca- and Ca/Mg-resinates

Rosin is a natural product from pine forests and it is used as a raw material in resinate syntheses. Resinates are polyvalent metal salts of rosin acids and especially Ca- and Ca/Mg- resinates find wide application in the printing ink industry. In this thesis, analytical methods were applied to increase general knowledge of resinate chemistry and the reaction kinetics was studied in order to model the non linear solution viscosity increase during resinate syntheses by the fusion method. Solution viscosity in toluene is an important quality factor for resinates to be used in printing inks. The concept of critical resinate concentration, c crit, was introduced to define an abrupt change in viscosity dependence on resinate concentration in the solution. The concept was then used to explain the non-inear solution viscosity increase during resinate syntheses. A semi empirical model with two estimated parameters was derived for the viscosity increase on the basis of apparent reaction kinetics. The model was used to control the viscosity and to predict the total reaction time of the resinate process. The kinetic data from the complex reaction media was obtained by acid value titration and by FTIR spectroscopic analyses using a conventional calibration method to measure the resinate concentration and the concentration of free rosin acids. A multivariate calibration method was successfully applied to make partial least square (PLS) models for monitoring acid value and solution viscosity in both mid-infrared (MIR) and near infrared (NIR) regions during the syntheses. The calibration models can be used for on line resinate process monitoring. In kinetic studies, two main reaction steps were observed during the syntheses. First a fast irreversible resination reaction occurs at 235 °C and then a slow thermal decarboxylation of rosin acids starts to take place at 265 °C. Rosin oil is formed during the decarboxylation reaction step causing significant mass loss as the rosin oil evaporates from the system while the viscosity increases to the target level. The mass balance of the syntheses was determined based on the resinate concentration increase during the decarboxylation reaction step. A mechanistic study of the decarboxylation reaction was based on the observation that resinate molecules are partly solvated by rosin acids during the syntheses. Different decarboxylation mechanisms were proposed for the free and solvating rosin acids. The deduced kinetic model supported the analytical data of the syntheses in a wide resinate concentration region, over a wide range of viscosity values and at different reaction temperatures. In addition, the application of the kinetic model to the modified resinate syntheses gave a good fit. A novel synthesis method with the addition of decarboxylated rosin (i.e. rosin oil) to the reaction mixture was introduced. The conversion of rosin acid to resinate was increased to the level necessary to obtain the target viscosity for the product at 235 °C. Due to a lower reaction temperature than in traditional fusion synthesis at 265 °C, thermal decarboxylation is avoided. As a consequence, the mass yield of the resinate syntheses can be increased from ca. 70% to almost 100% by recycling the added rosin oil.

Diffusion of Smart Meters in Central East Europe

The present study deals with innovation diffusion as the central component of innovation process and takes smart meters as a concrete example from the electric power industry. Smart meters are seen as key enablers of the industry-wide shift towards smart grids and are recognized by the European Union as means of reaching its environmental and energy goals. However, the spread of smart meters through the market, especially in Central East Europe (CEE), is not corresponding to the expectations and identified benefits. The current work synthesizes available data for the under-researched geographical region of CEE and clarifies the process of smart meter diffusion and drivers behind it. In addition to innovation theories the methods applied are rate of adoption and thematic analysis. The results prove the large gap between optimal and actual diffusion as well as the lagging position of CEE in comparison to the EU’s market leaders. The smart metering market is driven from bottom-up and the majority of CEE countries have already carried out or started the initial activities. Therefore, in coming years more intensive smart meters deployment will be seen.

Synthesis of percarboxylic acids in microreactor

Percarboxylic acids are commonly used as disinfection and bleaching agents in textile, paper, and fine chemical industries. All of these applications are based on the oxidative potential of these compounds. In spite of high interest in these chemicals, they are unstable and explosive chemicals, which increase the risk of synthesis processes and transportation. Therefore, the safety criteria in the production process should be considered. Microreactors represent a technology that efficiently utilizes safety advantages resulting from small scale. Therefore, microreactor technology was used in the synthesis of peracetic acid and performic acid. These percarboxylic acids were produced at different temperatures, residence times and catalyst i.e. sulfuric acid concentrations. Both synthesis reactions seemed to be rather fast because with performic acid equilibrium was reached in 4 min at 313 K and with peracetic acid in 10 min at 343 K. In addition, the experimental results were used to study the kinetics of the formation of performic acid and peracetic acid. The advantages of the microreactors in this study were the efficient temperature control even in very exothermic reaction and good mixing due to the short diffusion distances. Therefore, reaction rates were determined with high accuracy. Three different models were considered in order to estimate the kinetic parameters such as reaction rate constants and activation energies. From these three models, the laminar flow model with radial velocity distribution gave most precise parameters. However, sulfuric acid creates many drawbacks in this synthesis process. Therefore, a ´´greener´´ way to use heterogeneous catalyst in the synthesis of performic acid in microreactor was studied. The cation exchange resin, Dowex 50 Wx8, presented very high activity and a long life time in this reaction. In the presence of this catalyst, the equilibrium was reached in 120 second at 313 K which indicates a rather fast reaction. In addition, the safety advantages of microreactors were investigated in this study. Four different conventional methods were used. Production of peracetic acid was used as a test case, and the safety of one conventional batch process was compared with an on-site continuous microprocess. It was found that the conventional methods for the analysis of process safety might not be reliable and adequate for radically novel technology, such as microreactors. This is understandable because the conventional methods are partly based on experience, which is very limited in connection with totally novel technology. Therefore, one checklist-based method was developed to study the safety of intensified and novel processes at the early stage of process development. The checklist was formulated using the concept of layers of protection for a chemical process. The traditional and three intensified processes of hydrogen peroxide synthesis were selected as test cases. With these real cases, it was shown that several positive and negative effects on safety can be detected in process intensification. The general claim that safety is always improved by process intensification was questioned.

Combination of catalyst development and chemical reaction engineering : a key aspect to improve the hydrogen peroxide direct synthesis

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Oxidation rates of carbon and nitrogen in char residues from solid fuels

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling is an important tool in designing new combustion systems. By using CFD modeling, entire combustion systems can be modeled and the emissions and the performance can be predicted. CFD modeling can also be used to develop new and better combustion systems from an economical and environmental point of view. In CFD modeling of solid fuel combustion, the combustible fuel is generally treated as single fuel particles. One of the limitations with the CFD modeling concerns the sub-models describing the combustion of single fuel particles. Available models in the scientific literature are in many cases not suitable as submodels for CFD modeling since they depend on a large number of input parameters and are computationally heavy. In this thesis CFD-applicable models are developed for the combustion of single fuel particles. The single particle models can be used to improve the combustion performance in various combustion devices or develop completely new technologies. The investigated fields are oxidation of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) in char residues from solid fuels. Modeled char-C oxidation rates are compared to experimental oxidation rates for a large number of pulverized solid fuel chars under relevant combustion conditions. The experiments have been performed in an isothermal plug flow reactor operating at 1123-1673 K and 3-15 vol.% O2. In the single particle model, the char oxidation is based on apparent kinetics and depends on three fuel specific parameters: apparent pre-exponential factor, apparent activation energy, and apparent reaction order. The single particle model can be incorporated as a sub-model into a CFD code. The results show that the modeled char oxidation rates are in good agreement with experimental char oxidation rates up to around 70% of burnout. Moreover, the results show that the activation energy and the reaction order can be assumed to be constant for a large number of bituminous coal chars under conditions limited by the combined effects of chemical kinetics and pore diffusion. Based on this, a new model based on only one fuel specific parameter is developed (Paper III). The results also show that reaction orders of bituminous coal chars and anthracite chars differ under similar conditions (Paper I and Paper II); reaction orders of bituminous coal chars were found to be one, while reaction orders of anthracite chars were determined to be zero. This difference in reaction orders has not previously been observed in the literature and should be considered in future char oxidation models. One of the most frequently used comprehensive char oxidation models could not explain the difference in the reaction orders. In the thesis (Paper II), a modification to the model is suggested in order to explain the difference in reaction orders between anthracite chars and bituminous coal chars. Two single particle models are also developed for the NO formation and reduction during the oxidation of single biomass char particles. In the models the char-N is assumed to be oxidized to NO and the NO is partly reduced inside the particle. The first model (Paper IV) is based on the concentration gradients of NO inside and outside the particle and the second model is simplified to such an extent that it is based on apparent kinetics and can be incorporated as a sub-model into a CFD code (Paper V). Modeled NO release rates from both models were in good agreement with experimental measurements from a single particle reactor of quartz glass operating at 1173-1323 K and 3-19 vol.% O2. In the future, the models can be used to reduce NO emissions in new combustion systems.

The bifurcational behaviour of the spatially distributed Rayleigh equation

At the present work the bifurcational behaviour of the solutions of Rayleigh equation and corresponding spatially distributed system is being analysed. The conditions of oscillatory and monotonic loss of stability are obtained. In the case of oscillatory loss of stability, the analysis of linear spectral problem is being performed. For nonlinear problem, recurrent formulas for the general term of the asymptotic approximation of the self-oscillations are found, the stability of the periodic mode is analysed. Lyapunov-Schmidt method is being used for asymptotic approximation. The correlation between periodic solutions of ODE and PDE is being investigated. The influence of the diffusion on the frequency of self-oscillations is being analysed. Several numerical experiments are being performed in order to support theoretical findings.

Finnish stock market reaction to quarterly earnings announcements

This thesis examines the stock market reactions to quarterly earnings announcements. The study covers the OMX Helsinki 25 index companies for the years 2007–2010. The stock market response to quarterly earnings announcements is tested by employing the event study –methodology and daily stock returns of Finnish listed companies. The thesis provides evidence that stock prices react to earnings announcements that exceed or fall below analyst forecasts. The most liquid stocks earn higher returns around positive earnings news than less traded stocks, which supports the evidence from previous studies. This thesis finds evidence for the authorization to sell stocks short reducing the post–earnings announcement drift induced by negative earnings news. In addition, the market’s reaction to earnings announcements seems to quicken during economic turmoil.

Design and testing of an armature-reaction-compensated permanent magnet synchronous generator for island operation

At present, permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSGs) are of great interest. Since they do not have electrical excitation losses, the highly efficient, lightweight and compact PMSGs equipped with damper windings work perfectly when connected to a network. However, in island operation, the generator (or parallel generators) alone is responsible for the building up of the network and maintaining its voltage and reactive power level. Thus, in island operation, a PMSG faces very tight constraints, which are difficult to meet, because the flux produced by the permanent magnets (PMs) is constant and the voltage of the generator cannot be controlled. Traditional electrically excited synchronous generators (EESGs) can easily meet these constraints, because the field winding current is controllable. The main drawback of the conventional EESG is the relatively high excitation loss. This doctoral thesis presents a study of an alternative solution termed as a hybrid excitation synchronous generator (HESG). HESGs are a special class of electrical machines, where the total rotor current linkage is produced by the simultaneous action of two different excitation sources: the electrical and permanent magnet (PM) excitation. An overview of the existing HESGs is given. Several HESGs are introduced and compared with the conventional EESG from technical and economic points of view. In the study, the armature-reaction-compensated permanent magnet synchronous generator with alternated current linkages (ARC-PMSG with ACL) showed a better performance than the other options. Therefore, this machine type is studied in more detail. An electromagnetic design and a thermal analysis are presented. To verify the operation principle and the electromagnetic design, a down-sized prototype of 69 kVA apparent power was built. The experimental results are demonstrated and compared with the predicted ones. A prerequisite for an ARC-PMSG with ACL is an even number of pole pairs (p = 2, 4, 6, …) in the machine. Naturally, the HESG technology is not limited to even-pole-pair machines. However, the analysis of machines with p = 3, 5, 7, … becomes more complicated, especially if analytical tools are used, and is outside the scope of this thesis. The contribution of this study is to propose a solution where an ARC-PMSG replaces an EESG in electrical power generation while meeting all the requirements set for generators given for instance by ship classification societies, particularly as regards island operation. The maximum power level when applying the technology studied here is mainly limited by the economy of the machine. The larger the machine is, the smaller is the efficiency benefit. However, it seems that machines up to ten megawatts of power could benefit from the technology. However, in low-power applications, for instance in the 500 kW range, the efficiency increase can be significant.