Deregulation’s Impact on the Railway Freight Transport Sector’s Future in the Baltic Sea Region

The European transport market has confronted several changes during the last decade. Due to European Union legislative mandates, the railway freight market was deregulated in 2007. The market followed the trend started by other transport modes as well as other previously regulated industries such as banking, telecommunications and energy. Globally, the first country to deregulate the railway freight market was the United States, with the introduction of the Staggers Rail Act in 1980. Some European countries decided to follow suit already before regulation was mandated; among the forerunners were the United Kingdom, Sweden and Germany. The previous research has concentrated only on these countries, which has provided an interesting research gap for this thesis. The Baltic Sea Region consists of countries with different kinds of liberalization paths, including Sweden and Germany, which have been on the frontline, whereas Lithuania and Finland have only one active railway undertaking, the incumbent. The transport market of the European Union is facing further challenges in the near future, due to the Sulphur Directive, oil dependency and the changing structure of European rail networks. In order to improve the accessibility of this peripheral area, further action is required. This research focuses on topics such as the progression of deregulation, barriers to entry, country-specific features, cooperation and internationalization. Based on the research results, it can be stated that the Baltic Sea Region’s railway freight market is expected to change in the future. Further private railway undertakings are anticipated, and these would change the market structure. The realization of European Union’s plans to increase the improved rail network to cover the Baltic States is strongly hoped for, and railway freight market counterparts inside and among countries are starting to enhance their level of cooperation. The Baltic Sea Region countries have several special national characteristics which influence the market and should be taken into account when companies evaluate possible market entry actions. According to thesis interviews, the Swedish market has a strong level of cooperation in the form of an old-boy network, and is supported by a positive attitude of the incumbent towards the private railway undertakings. This has facilitated the entry process of newcomers, and currently the market has numerous operating railway undertakings. A contrary example was found from Poland, where the incumbent sent old rolling stock to the scrap yard rather than sell it to private railway undertakings. The importance of personal relations is highlighted in Russia, followed by the railway market’s strong political bond with politics. Nonetheless, some barriers to entry are shared by the Baltic Sea Region, the main ones being acquisition of rolling stock, bureaucracy and needed investments. The railway freight market is internationalizing, which is perceived via several alliances as well as the increased number of mergers and acquisitions. After deregulation, markets seem to increase the number of railway undertakings at a rather fast pace, but with the passage of time, the larger operators tend to acquire smaller ones. Therefore, it is expected that in a decade’s time, the number of railway undertakings will start to decrease in the deregulation pioneer countries, while the ones coming from behind might still experience an increase. The Russian market is expected to be totally liberalized, and further alliances between the Russian Railways and European railway undertakings are expected to occur. The Baltic Sea Region’s railway freight market is anticipated to improve, and, based on the interviewees’ comments, attract more cargoes from road to rail.

Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

The interplay of JNK and SCG10 during cortical development and in excitotoxic responses in brain

Initially identified as stress activated protein kinases (SAPKs), the c-Jun Nterminal kinases (JNKs) are currently accepted as potent regulators of various physiologically important cellular events. Named after their competence to phosphorylate transcription factor c-Jun in response to UVtreatment, JNKs play a key role in cell proliferation, cell death or cell migration. Interestingly, these functions are crucial for proper brain formation. The family consists of three JNK isoforms, JNK1, JNK2 and JNK3. Unlike brain specific JNK3 isoform, JNK1 and JNK2 are ubiquitously expressed. It is estimated that ten splice variants exist. However, the detailed cellular functions of these remain undetermined. In addition, physiological conditions keep the activities of JNK2 and JNK3 low in comparison with JNK1, whereas cellular stress raises the activity of these isoforms dramatically. Importantly, JNK1 activity is constitutively high in neurons, yet it does not stimulate cell death. This suggests a valuable role for JNK1 in brain development, but also as an important mediator of cell wellbeing. The aim of this thesis was to characterize the functional relationship between JNK1 and SCG10. We found that SCG10 is a bona fide target for JNK. By employing differential centrifugation we showed that SCG10 co-localized with active JNK, MKK7 and JIP1 in a fraction containing endosomes and Golgi vesicles. Investigation of JNK knockout tissues using phosphospecific antibodies recognizing JNK-specific phosphorylation sites on SCG10 (Ser 62/Ser 73) showed that phosphorylation of endogenous SCG10 was dramatically decreased in Jnk1-/- brains. Moreover, we found that JNK and SCG10 co-express during early embryonic days in brain regions that undergo extensive neuronal migration. Our study revealed that selective inhibition of JNK in the cytoplasm significantly increased both the frequency of exit from the multipolar stage and radial migration rate. However, as a consequence, it led to ill-defined cellular organization. Furthermore, we found that multipolar exit and radial migration in Jnk1 deficient mice can be connected to changes in phosphorylation state of SCG10. Also, the expression of a pseudo-phosphorylated mutant form of SCG10, mimicking the JNK1- phopshorylated form, brings migration rate back to normal in Jnk1 knockout mouse embryos. Furthermore, we investigated the role of SCG10 and JNK in regulation of Golgi apparatus (GA) biogenesis and whether pathological JNK action could be discernible by its deregulation. We found that SCG10 maintains GA integrity as with the absence of SCG10 neurons present more compact fragmented GA structure, as shown by the knockdown approach. Interestingly, neurons isolated from Jnk1-/- mice show similar characteristics. Block of ER to GA is believed to be involved in development of Parkinson's disease. Hence, by using a pharmacological approach (Brefeldin A treatment), we showed that GA recovery is delayed upon removal of the drug in Jnk1-/- neurons to an extent similar to the shRNA SCG10-treated cells. Finally, we investigated the role of the JNK1-SCG10 duo in the maintenance of GA biogenesis following excitotoxic insult. Although the GA underwent fragmentation in response to NMDA treatment, we observed a substantial delay in GA disintegration in neurons lacking either JNK1 or SCG10.