A performance analysis of conventional and fundamental exchange traded funds: ETFs and their risk-return characteristics in relation to building institutional investor’s passive portfolio

An exchange traded fund (ETF) is a financial instrument that tracks some predetermined index. Since their initial establishment in 1993, ETFs have grown in importance in the field of passive investing. The main reason for the growth of the ETF industry is that ETFs combine benefits of stock investing and mutual fund investing. Although ETFs resemble mutual funds in many ways, also many differences occur. In addition, ETFs not only differ from mutual funds but also differ among each other. ETFs can be divided into two categories, i.e. market capitalisation ETFs and fundamental (or strategic) ETFs, and further into subcategories depending on their fundament basis. ETFs are a useful tool for diversification especially for a long-term investor. Although the economic importance of ETFs has risen drastically during the past 25 years, the differences and risk-return characteristics of fundamental ETFs have yet been rather unstudied area. In effect, no previous research on market capitalisation and fundamental ETFs was found during the research process. For its part, this thesis seeks to fill this research gap. The studied data consist of 50 market capitalisation ETFs and 50 fundamental ETFs. The fundaments, on which the indices that the fundamental ETFs track, were not limited nor segregated into subsections. The two types of ETFs were studied at an aggregate level as two different research groups. The dataset ranges from June 2006 to December 2014 with 103 monthly observations. The data was gathered using Bloomberg Terminal. The analysis was conducted as an econometric performance analysis. In addition to other econometric measures, the methods that were used in the performance analysis included modified Value-at-Risk, modified Sharpe ratio and Treynor ratio. The results supported the hypothesis that passive market capitalisation ETFs outperform active fundamental ETFs in terms of risk-adjusted returns, though the difference is rather small. Nevertheless, when taking into account the higher overall trading costs of the fundamental ETFs, the underperformance gap widens. According to the research results, market capitalisation ETFs are a recommendable diversification instrument for a long-term investor. In addition to better risk-adjusted returns, passive ETFs are more transparent and the bases of their underlying indices are simpler than those of fundamental ETFs. ETFs are still a young financial innovation and hence data is scarcely available. On future research, it would be valuable to research the differences in risk-adjusted returns also between the subsections of fundamental ETFs.

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION – Evidence from the Black–Litterman model based fixed income portfolio

Over time the demand for quantitative portfolio management has increased among financial institutions but there is still a lack of practical tools. In 2008 EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre conducted a survey of European investment practices. It revealed that the majority of asset or fund management companies, pension funds and institutional investors do not use more sophisticated models to compensate the flaws of the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio optimization. Furthermore, tactical asset allocation managers employ a variety of methods to estimate return and risk of assets, but also need sophisticated portfolio management models to outperform their benchmarks. Recent development in portfolio management suggests that new innovations are slowly gaining ground, but still need to be studied carefully. This thesis tries to provide a practical tactical asset allocation (TAA) application to the Black–Litterman (B–L) approach and unbiased evaluation of B–L models’ qualities. Mean-variance framework, issues related to asset allocation decisions and return forecasting are examined carefully to uncover issues effecting active portfolio management. European fixed income data is employed in an empirical study that tries to reveal whether a B–L model based TAA portfolio is able outperform its strategic benchmark. The tactical asset allocation utilizes Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to create return forecasts from lagged values of asset classes as well as economic variables. Sample data (31.12.1999–31.12.2012) is divided into two. In-sample data is used for calibrating a strategic portfolio and the out-of-sample period is for testing the tactical portfolio against the strategic benchmark. Results show that B–L model based tactical asset allocation outperforms the benchmark portfolio in terms of risk-adjusted return and mean excess return. The VAR-model is able to pick up the change in investor sentiment and the B–L model adjusts portfolio weights in a controlled manner. TAA portfolio shows promise especially in moderately shifting allocation to more risky assets while market is turning bullish, but without overweighting investments with high beta. Based on findings in thesis, Black–Litterman model offers a good platform for active asset managers to quantify their views on investments and implement their strategies. B–L model shows potential and offers interesting research avenues. However, success of tactical asset allocation is still highly dependent on the quality of input estimates.

Remembering the War and Aggression: A Discourse Analysis of Japan’s State Apologies and Commemoration Speeches on August 15th 1995-2015

Memories of historical injustices affect contemporary politics from local to global level. In East Asia, questions of commemoration and historical responsibility have turned into international and domestic controversies. The main focus has been and still is in apologies conducted by Japanese prime ministers in regards to the war, aggression and colonialism during the era of Imperial Japan. Although it is granted that state apologies are not a crucial part of reconciliation, they can be analysed as a linked but separate process within the context of memory and international relations. The purpose of this study is to examine the discourses of history in Japanese prime ministers’ commemoration speeches on Memorial Ceremony for the War Dead from 1995 to 2015 in order to analyse how the Japanese government is reflecting on its past. In particular, attention is paid on what is being commemorated and how, whether it is the war and its victims or Japan’s post-war era of peace. As an apology is a reciprocal activity, responses from Japan’s most vocal former victims, South Korea and China, were also examined. Discourse analysis was used to identify and examine the different representations of the past. In addition, the apology statements of Japanese prime ministers were analysed in the Many to Many apology framework developed by Tavuchis (1991). Primary material consisted of 21 prime ministers’ speeches from the annual Memorial Ceremony for the War Dead on August 15th and from three apology statements made in 1995, 2005 and 2015. Further international context was primarily collected from newspaper articles of The New York Times and The Times throughout the examined period. It can be concluded from the findings that in the official Japanese remembrance of the past war from 1985’s annexation of Taiwan to the atomic bombings in 1945, both discourses that reinforce apology and remorse over Japan’s past aggressions and discourses that consciously avoid doing so are used. The commemoration speeches and apology statements consistently assert that Japan has acknowledged its past and expresses regret over the acts of aggression. At the same time, the speeches and statements strengthen the narrative that Japan was a victim of circumstances as well as turn the focus on post-war peace-making or on Japan’s own victimhood.