Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo and Bayesian filtering for state space models

This thesis is concerned with the state and parameter estimation in state space models. The estimation of states and parameters is an important task when mathematical modeling is applied to many different application areas such as the global positioning systems, target tracking, navigation, brain imaging, spread of infectious diseases, biological processes, telecommunications, audio signal processing, stochastic optimal control, machine learning, and physical systems. In Bayesian settings, the estimation of states or parameters amounts to computation of the posterior probability density function. Except for a very restricted number of models, it is impossible to compute this density function in a closed form. Hence, we need approximation methods. A state estimation problem involves estimating the states (latent variables) that are not directly observed in the output of the system. In this thesis, we use the Kalman filter, extended Kalman filter, Gauss–Hermite filters, and particle filters to estimate the states based on available measurements. Among these filters, particle filters are numerical methods for approximating the filtering distributions of non-linear non-Gaussian state space models via Monte Carlo. The performance of a particle filter heavily depends on the chosen importance distribution. For instance, inappropriate choice of the importance distribution can lead to the failure of convergence of the particle filter algorithm. In this thesis, we analyze the theoretical Lᵖ particle filter convergence with general importance distributions, where p ≥2 is an integer. A parameter estimation problem is considered with inferring the model parameters from measurements. For high-dimensional complex models, estimation of parameters can be done by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In its operation, the MCMC method requires the unnormalized posterior distribution of the parameters and a proposal distribution. In this thesis, we show how the posterior density function of the parameters of a state space model can be computed by filtering based methods, where the states are integrated out. This type of computation is then applied to estimate parameters of stochastic differential equations. Furthermore, we compute the partial derivatives of the log-posterior density function and use the hybrid Monte Carlo and scaled conjugate gradient methods to infer the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The computational efficiency of MCMC methods is highly depend on the chosen proposal distribution. A commonly used proposal distribution is Gaussian. In this kind of proposal, the covariance matrix must be well tuned. To tune it, adaptive MCMC methods can be used. In this thesis, we propose a new way of updating the covariance matrix using the variational Bayesian adaptive Kalman filter algorithm.

Portfolio Selection via Composite Measure Analysis: Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market

The aim of this research is to examine the pricing anomalies existing in the U.S. market during 1986 to 2011. The sample of stocks is divided into decile portfolios based on seven individual valuation ratios (E/P, B/P, S/P, EBIT/EV, EVITDA/EV, D/P, and CE/P) and price momentum to investigate the efficiency of individual valuation ratio and their combinations as portfolio formation criteria. This is the first time in financial literature when CE/P is employed as a constituent of composite value measure. The combinations are based on median scaled composite value measures and TOPSIS method. During the sample period value portfolios significantly outperform both the market portfolio and comparable glamour portfolios. The results show the highest return for the value portfolio that was based on the combination of S/P & CE/P ratios. The outcome of this research will increase the understanding on the suitability of different methodologies for portfolio selection. It will help managers to take advantage of the results of different methodologies in order to gain returns above the market.

Natiivin Android-pelin käyttöliittymän skaalautuminen ja suorituskyvyn optimointi

Tässä työssä esiteltiin Android laitteisto- ja sovellusalustana sekä kuvattiin, kuinka Android-pelisovelluksen käyttöliittymä voidaan pitää yhtenäisenä eri näyttölaitteilla skaalauskertoimien ja ankkuroinnin avulla. Toisena osiona työtä käsiteltiin yksinkertaisia tapoja, joilla pelisovelluksien suorituskykyä voidaan parantaa. Näistä tarkempiin mittauksiin valittiin matalatarkkuuksinen piirtopuskuri ja näkymättömissä olevien kappaleiden piilotus. Mittauksissa valitut menetelmät vaikuttivat demosovelluksen suorituskykyyn huomattavasti. Tässä työssä rajauduttiin Android-ohjelmointiin Java-kielellä ilman ulkoisia kirjastoja, jolloin työn tuloksia voi helposti hyödyntää mahdollisimman monessa eri käyttökohteessa.

Pressurized hot water flow-through extraction of birch wood

Effective processes to fractionate the main compounds in biomass, such as wood, are a prerequisite for an effective biorefinery. Water is environmentally friendly and widely used in industry, which makes it a potential solvent also for forest biomass. At elevated temperatures over 100 °C, water can readily hydrolyse and dissolve hemicelluloses from biomass. In this work, birch sawdust was extracted using pressurized hot water (PHWE) flow-through systems. The hypothesis of the work was that it is possible to obtain polymeric, water-soluble hemicelluloses from birch sawdust using flow-through PHW extractions at both laboratory and large scale. Different extraction temperatures in the range 140–200 °C were evaluated to see the effect of temperature to the xylan yield. The yields and extracted hemicelluloses were analysed to obtain sugar ratios, the amount of acetyl groups, furfurals and the xylan yields. Higher extraction temperatures increased the xylan yield, but decreased the molar mass of the dissolved xylan. As the extraction temperature increased, more acetic acid was released from the hemicelluloses, thus further decreasing the pH of the extract. There were only trace amounts of furfurals present after the extractions, indicating that the treatment was mild enough not to degrade the sugars further. The sawdust extraction density was increased by packing more sawdust in the laboratory scale extraction vessel. The aim was to obtain extracts with higher concentration than in typical extraction densities. The extraction times and water flow rates were kept constant during these extractions. The higher sawdust packing degree decreased the water use in the extractions and the extracts had higher hemicellulose concentrations than extractions with lower sawdust degrees of packing. The molar masses of the hemicelluloses were similar in higher packing degrees and in the degrees of packing that were used in typical PHWE flow-through extractions. The structure of extracted sawdust was investigated using small angle-(SAXS) and wide angle (WAXS) x-ray scattering. The cell wall topography of birch sawdust and extracted sawdust was compared using x-ray tomography. The results showed that the structure of the cell walls of extracted birch sawdust was preserved but the cell walls were thinner after the extractions. Larger pores were opened inside the fibres and cellulose microfibrils were more tightly packed after the extraction. Acetate buffers were used to control the pH of the extracts during the extractions. The pH control prevented excessive xylan hydrolysis and increased the molar masses of the extracted xylans. The yields of buffered extractions were lower than for plain water extractions at 160–170 °C, but at 180 °C yields were similar to those from plain water and pH buffers. The pH can thus be controlled during extraction with acetate buffer to obtain xylan with higher molar mass than those obtainable using plain water. Birch sawdust was extracted both in the laboratory and pilot scale. The performance of the PHWE flow-through system was evaluated in the laboratory and the pilot scale using vessels with the same shape but different volumes, with the same relative water flow through the sawdust bed, and in the same extraction temperature. Pre-steaming improved the extraction efficiency and the water flow through the sawdust bed. The extracted birch sawdust and the extracted xylan were similar in both laboratory and pilot scale. The PHWE system was successfully scaled up by a factor of 6000 from the laboratory to pilot scale and extractions performed equally well in both scales. The results show that a flow-through system can be further scaled up and used to extract water-soluble xylans from birch sawdust. Extracted xylans can be concentrated, purified, and then used in e.g. films and barriers, or as building blocks for novel material applications.

Early Life Intestinal Microbiota in Health and in Atopic Eczema

Decrease in microbial contacts in affluent societies is considered to lie behind the rise in allergic and other chronic inflammatory diseases during the last decades. Indeed, deviations in the intestinal microbiota composition and diversity have been associated with several diseases, such as atopic eczema. However, there is no consensus yet on what would constitute a beneficial or harmful microbiota. The aim of this thesis was to study the microbiota development in healthy infants and to characterize intestinal microbiota signatures associated with disease status and severity in infants with atopic eczema. The methodological aim was to compare and optimize methods for DNA extraction from fecal samples to be used in high-throughput microbiota analyses. It was confirmed that the most critical step in successful microbial DNA extraction from fecal samples is the mechanical cell lysis procedure. Based on this finding, an efficient semi-automated extraction process was developed that can be scaled for use in high-throughput platforms such as phylogenetic microarray used in this series of studies. By analyzing a longitudinal motherchild cohort for 3 years it was observed that the microbiota development is a gradual process, where some bacterial groups reach the degree of adult-type pattern earlier than others. During the breast-feeding period, the microbiota appeared to be relatively simple, while major diversification was found to start during the weaning process. By the age of 3 years, the child’s microbiota composition started to resemble that of an adult, but the bacterial diversity has still not reached the full diversity, indicating that the microbiota maturation extends beyond this age. In addition, at three years of age, the child’s microbiota was more similar to mother’s microbiota than to microbiota of nonrelated women.In infants with atopic eczema, a high total microbiota diversity and abundance of butyrate-producing bacteria was found to correlate with mild symptoms at 6 months. At 18 months, infants with mild eczema had significantly higher microbiota diversity and aberrant microbiota composition when compared to healthy controls at the same age. In conclusion, the comprehensive phylogenetic microarray analysis of early life microbiota shows the synergetic effect of vertical transmission and shared environment on the intestinal microbiota development. By the age of three years, the compositional development of intestinal microbiota is close to adult level, but the microbiota diversification continues beyond this age. In addition, specific microbiota signatures are associated with the existence and severity of atopic eczema and intestinal microbiota seems to have a role in alleviating the symptoms of this disease.

Selluloosapohjaisten superkondensaattorien valmistaminen hiilinanoputkista

Tämän työn tarkoitus on seuloa oleelliset prosessiparametrit superkondensaattoreiden elektrodikomposiittien valmistuksessa, jotka vaikuttavat kondensaattorin laatuun. Tarkoitus on tutkia parametreja, joiden avulla prosessia on mahdollista optimoida. Työn tarkoituksena on tutkia myös itse komponenttimateriaalien valmistusvaiheen sekoitusprosessia mitatulla ja laskennallisella seokseen siirtyvällä tehonkulutuksella. Työn kirjallisuusosassa esitetään superkondensaattoreiden rakennetta, toimintamekanismia ja ominaisuuksia sähköenergian varastoijana. Lisäksi tarkastellaan tavallisimpia kondensaattoreihin sisältyviä materiaaleja, erityisesti hiilinanoputkia ja selluloosakuituja. Sekoitusprosesseista tarkastellaan kokeellisessa osassa käytettävien sekoituslaitteita ja niiden toimintamekanismeja komponenttien sekoitusprosesseissa. Kokeellisessa osassa tutkimuskysymyksiksi asetettiin eri sekoitusparametrien (materiaalin määrä ja laatu sekä sekoitusajat) vaikutus superkondensaattorien elektrodiarkkien ominaiskapasitansseihin. Testit suoritettiin LUT Prosessien laboratoriossa, ja testeissä massojen sekoitukseen käytettiin roottoristaattoria ja ultraäänisekoitinta. Lisäksi tutkittiin prosessin skaalausta varten skaalatulla laitteistolla sekoitettuja massanäytteitä. Sekoitusprosessin riittävyyttä varten tutkittiin kokeellisesti käytettyjen sekoituslaitteiden tehonkulutusta. Lisäksi roottoristaattorille tehtiin laskentaohjelmalla virtaussimulaatio paikallisen tehonkulutuksen selvittämiseksi Testeissä todettiin tutkittujen parametrien vaikutus, mutta tulosten perusteella varsinaista optimointia ei kyetty tekemään. Tulokset kuitenkin antavat suunnan, johon prosessia voi optimointia varten kehittää. Myös sekoitukseen todettiin siirtyvän suuri määrä tehoa tutkituilla laitteilla, mitä voidaan pitää mahdollisesti riittävänä käytettyjen komponenttien sekoitukseen.

Intellectual Capital Measurement in IT industry

The goal of this research – which is to critically analyze current theories and methods of intangible assets evaluation and potentially develop and test new methodology based on the practical example(s) in the IT industry. Having this goal in mind the main research questions in this paper will be: What are advantages and disadvantages of the current practices of measurement intellectual capital or valuation of intangible assets? How to properly measure intellectual capital in IT? Resulting method exhibits a new unique approach to the IC measurement and potentially even larger field of application. Despite the fact that in this particular research, I focused my attention on IT (Software and Internet services cluster – to be exact), the logic behind the method is applicable within any industry since the method is designed to be fully compliant with measurement theory and thus can be properly scaled for any application. Building a new method is a difficult and iterative process: in the current iteration the method stands out as rather a theoretical concept rather than a business tool, however even current concept totally fulfills its purpose as a benchmarking tool for measuring intellectual capital in IT industry.

Enzymatic Synthesis, Recovery, and Purification of Ethyl β-ᴅ-glucopyranoside

A method to synthesize ethyl β-ᴅ-glucopyranoside (BEG) was searched. Feasibility of different ion exchange resins was examined to purify the product from the synthetic binary solution of BEG and glucose. The target was to produce at least 50 grams of 99 % pure BEG with a scaled up process. Another target was to transfer the batch process into steady-state recycle chromatography process (SSR). BEG was synthesized enzymatically with reverse hydrolysis utilizing β-glucosidase as a catalyst. 65 % of glucose reacted with ethanol into BEG during the synthesis. Different ion exchanger based resins were examined to separate BEG from glucose. Based on batch chromatography experiments the best adsorbent was chosen between styrene based strong acid cation exchange resins (SAC) and acryl based weak acid cation exchange resins (WAC). CA10GC WAC resin in Na+ form was chosen for the further separation studies. To produce greater amounts of the product the batch process was scaled up. The adsorption isotherms for the components were linear. The target purity was possible to reach already in batch without recycle with flowrate and injection size small enough. 99 % pure product was produced with scaled-up batch process. Batch process was transferred to SSR process utilizing the data from design pulse chromatograms and Matlab simulations. The optimal operating conditions for the system were determined. Batch and SSR separation results were compared and by using SSR 98 % pure products were gained with 40 % higher productivity and 40 % lower eluent consumption compared to batch process producing as pure products.

Kotkan kaupungin ja lähialueen sähkönjakeluverkon kehittämissuunnitelma

Kotkan jakelualueella käytetään historiallisista syistä keskijänniteverkossa kahta jänniteta-soa, 10 kV ja 20 kV. Eri jännitetasojen lisäksi Kotkan jakelualueen 110/20 päämuuntajien kytkentäryhmänä on käytössä YNyn0, kun taas muualla verkossa käytetään YNd11 kyt-kentäryhmää. Jännitetasoista ja kytkentäryhmistä johtuen Kotkan jakeluverkon yhteenkyt-kettävyys ympäröivän verkon kanssa on haastavaa. Työn tavoitteena on selvittää Kotkan kaupungin keskijänniteverkon nykytila ja käytettä-vyys häiriötilanteissa pahimpana mahdollisena aikana, sekä löytää mahdolliset ongelma-kohdat. Verkon nykytila tarkasteltiin verkkotietojärjestelmän avulla käyttäen laskennallisia tuloksia, jotka skaalattiin vastaamaan kovemman pakkastalven kuormitusta. Skaalaus teh-tiin useamman vuoden takaiseen tilanteeseen, jolloin yleinen taloustilanne oli parempi ja verkon kuormitus suurempi, jolloin verkko ei tule alimitoitetuksi taloustilanteen parantuessa. Tulevaisuuden varalta muodostettiin alueen tulevaisuuden kuormitusennusteet käyttämällä historiatietoja sekä tulevaisuuden näkymiä apuna. Työn keskeisimmäksi sisällöksi muodostui selvittää tarve usean käyttöjännitteen säilyttä-miselle sekä erilaisten kytkentäryhmien ylläpitämiseen ja kosketusjänniteongelman ratkai-seminen. Alueen sähköverkon kehittämiseksi tehtiin useita eri vaihtoehtoja, joita vertailtiin elinkaarikustannusperiaatteella toisiinsa. Vertailun pohjalta saatiin investointistrategia ehdo-tukset, joiden pohjalta verkkoyhtiö voi tehdä tulevaisuuteen sijoittuvia ratkaisuja.

Liquid-phase alcohol promoted methanol synthesis from CO2 and H2

Methanol is an important and versatile compound with various uses as a fuel and a feedstock chemical. Methanol is also a potential chemical energy carrier. Due to the fluctuating nature of renewable energy sources such as wind or solar, storage of energy is required to balance the varying supply and demand. Excess electrical energy generated at peak periods can be stored by using the energy in the production of chemical compounds. The conventional industrial production of methanol is based on the gas-phase synthesis from synthesis gas generated from fossil sources, primarily natural gas. Methanol can also be produced by hydrogenation of CO2. The production of methanol from CO2 captured from emission sources or even directly from the atmosphere would allow sustainable production based on a nearly limitless carbon source, while helping to reduce the increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Hydrogen for synthesis can be produced by electrolysis of water utilizing renewable electricity. A new liquid-phase methanol synthesis process has been proposed. In this process, a conventional methanol synthesis catalyst is mixed in suspension with a liquid alcohol solvent. The alcohol acts as a catalytic solvent by enabling a new reaction route, potentially allowing the synthesis of methanol at lower temperatures and pressures compared to conventional processes. For this thesis, the alcohol promoted liquid phase methanol synthesis process was tested at laboratory scale. Batch and semibatch reaction experiments were performed in an autoclave reactor, using a conventional Cu/ZnO catalyst and ethanol and 2-butanol as the alcoholic solvents. Experiments were performed at the pressure range of 30-60 bar and at temperatures of 160-200 °C. The productivity of methanol was found to increase with increasing pressure and temperature. In the studied process conditions a maximum volumetric productivity of 1.9 g of methanol per liter of solvent per hour was obtained, while the maximum catalyst specific productivity was found to be 40.2 g of methanol per kg of catalyst per hour. The productivity values are low compared to both industrial synthesis and to gas-phase synthesis from CO2. However, the reaction temperatures and pressures employed were lower compared to gas-phase processes. While the productivity is not high enough for large-scale industrial operation, the milder reaction conditions and simple operation could prove useful for small-scale operations. Finally, a preliminary design for an alcohol promoted, liquid-phase methanol synthesis process was created using the data obtained from the experiments. The demonstration scale process was scaled to an electrolyzer unit producing 1 Nm3 of hydrogen per hour. This Master’s thesis is closely connected to LUT REFLEX-platform.