Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

Preparation and Investigation of Bio-coal Mixture Fuels Used in Large Diesel Engines

Coal slurry was of vital interest during the last century due to its potential as an alternative fuel where liquid fuels were necessary. Recently, environmental impacts of the traditional fuels, similarities of bio-coal to that of coal, and huge bio-coal supply has attracted the attention to prepare bio-coal slurries as a new fuel. Rudolf Diesel who invented the diesel engine on 1895 was of the opinion that diesel engines are capable to use different kinds of fuels due to the special design. He tried some kind of vegetable oil to operate on his IC engine. Recently, due to high energy density and more environmentally friendly fuel, researchers believe that bio-coal slurries could act as a new alternative fuel in large diesel engines. Loads of research on different kinds of bio-coal slurry were done by the other researchers worldwide and a lot of progress to boost slurry’s quality were achieved recently. The present study aims to achieve the ideal condition of different factors affecting on the quality of bio-coal slurry. One charcoal sample and two kinds of torrefied wood were used to investigate and compare the reaction of various factors. The results show a great gap between the quality of slurries made of different samples and more researches are necessary to fully understand the impact of the different parameter and improving the quality.