Forecasting with social media – Using Facebook likes to predict the results of the 2015 Finnish Parliamentary elections

Already one-third of the human population uses social media on a daily basis. The biggest social networking site Facebook has over billion monthly users. As a result, social media services are now recording unprecedented amount of data on human behavior. The phenomenon has certainly caught the attention of scholars, businesses and governments alike. Organizations around the globe are trying to explore new ways to benefit from the massive databases. One emerging field of research is the use of social media in forecasting. The goal is to use data gathered from online services to predict offline phenomena. Predicting the results of elections is a prominent example of forecasting with social media, but regardless of the numerous attempts, no reliable technique has been established. The objective of the research is to analyze how accurately the results of parliament elections can be forecasted using social media. The research examines whether Facebook “likes” can be effectively used for predicting the outcome of the Finnish parliament elections that took place in April 2015. First a tool for gathering data from Facebook was created. Then the data was used to create an electoral forecast. Finally, the forecast was compared with the official results of the elections. The data used in the research was gathered from the Facebook walls of all the candidates that were running for the parliament elections and had a valid Facebook page. The final sample represents 1131 candidates and over 750000 Facebook “likes”. The results indicate that creating a forecast solely based on Facebook “likes” is not accurate. The forecast model predicted very dramatic changes to the Finnish political landscape while the official results of the elections were rather moderate. However, a clear statistical relationship between “likes” and votes was discovered. In conclusion, it is apparent that citizens and other key actors of the society are using social media in an increasing rate. However, the volume of the data does not directly increase the quality of the forecast. In addition, the study faced several other limitations that should be addressed in future research. Nonetheless, discovering the positive correlation between “likes” and votes is valuable information that can be used in future studies. Finally, it is evident that Facebook “likes” are not accurate enough and a meaningful forecast would require additional parameters.

Implementation of educational change in Finland: The case of the undivided basic education reform

For the past decades, educational large-scale reforms have been elaborated and implemented in many countries and often resulted in partial or complete failure. These results brought researchers to study policy processes in order to address this particular challenge. Studies on implementation processes brought to light an existing causal relationship between the implementation process and the effectiveness of a reform. This study aims to describe the implementation process of educational change in Finland, who produced efficient educational reforms over the last 50 years. The case study used for the purpose of this study is the national reform of undivided basic education (yhtenäinen peruskoulu) implemented in the end of the 1990s. Therefore, this research aims to describe how the Finnish undivided basic education reform was implemented. This research was carried out using a pluralist and structuralist approach of policy process and was analyzed according to the hybrid model of implementation process. The data were collected using a triangulation of methods, i.e. documentary research, interviews and questionnaires. The data were qualitative and were analyzed using content analysis methods. This study concludes that the undivided basic education reform was applied in a very decentralized manner, which is a reflection of the decentralized system present in Finland. Central authorities provided a clear vision of the purpose of the reform, but did not control the implementation process. They rather provided extensive support in the form of transmission of information and development of collaborative networks. Local authorities had complete autonomy in terms of decision-making and implementation process. Discussions, debates and decisions regarding implementation processes took place at the local level and included the participation of all actors present on the field. Implementation methods differ from a region to another, with is the consequence of the variation of the level of commitment of local actors but also the diversity of local realities. The reform was implemented according to existing structures and values, which means that it was in cohesion with the context in which it was implemented. These results cannot be generalized to all implementation processes of educational change in Finland but give a great insight of what could be the model used in Finland. Future studies could intent to confirm the model described here by studying other reforms that took place in Finland.

A year after Crimea: continuity and change of Finnish-Russian relations reflected in the views of the government officials of Finland and Russia

This thesis discusses the dynamism of bilateral relations between Finland and Russia and their interconnection with wider EU-Russia relations in the sight of the recent conflict in Ukraine. In particular, incorporation of Crimea in the territory of Russia in March 2014 is believed to have triggered a series of disputes between the European Union and Russia and thus, have impacted the course of the bilateral Finnish-Russian relations. The study leans on a premise that there are some historical traditions and regularities in the Finnish foreign policy course towards Russia which make the bilateral Finnish-Russian relations special. These traditions are distinguished and described in the book “Russia Forever? Towards Pragmatism in Finnish/Russian relations” (2008) edited by H. Rytövuori-Apunen. Assuming that the featured traditions take place in modern relations between Finland and Russia, the aim of the thesis is to find out how these traditions reappear during the year shaped by the events in Ukraine. In order to do that, author follows the timeline of happenings around the Ukraine crisis starting with Crimea’s referendum on independence, and exams the way these events were commented on and evaluated by the key government officials and political institutions of Finland and Russia. The main focus is given to the Finnish official discourse on Russia during the study period. The data collection, consisting of mostly primary sources (ministerial press releases and comments, statements, speeches and blog posts of individual policy makers) is processed using the thematic analysis supported by the content analysis. The study reveals that the consequences of the Ukraine crisis have brought, among others, complications to the economic cooperation between Finland and Russia, and have stimulated the increased attention of the Finnish decision makers to the country’s security questions. As a result, the character and importance of some historical regularities of the Finnish foreign policies on Russia, like the Continental Dilemma, have taken new shape.

Implementation of educational change in Finland: The case of the undivided basic education reform

For the past decades, educational large-scale reforms have been elaborated and implemented in many countries and often resulted in partial or complete failure. These results brought researchers to study policy processes in order to address this particular challenge. Studies on implementation processes brought to light an existing causal relationship between the implementation process and the effectiveness of a reform. This study aims to describe the implementation process of educational change in Finland, who produced efficient educational reforms over the last 50 years. The case study used for the purpose of this study is the national reform of undivided basic education (yhtenäinen peruskoulu) implemented in the end of the 1990s. Therefore, this research aims to describe how the Finnish undivided basic education reform was implemented. This research was carried out using a pluralist and structuralist approach of policy process and was analyzed according to the hybrid model of implementation process. The data were collected using a triangulation of methods, i.e. documentary research, interviews and questionnaires. The data were qualitative and were analyzed using content analysis methods. This study concludes that the undivided basic education reform was applied in a very decentralized manner, which is a reflection of the decentralized system present in Finland. Central authorities provided a clear vision of the purpose of the reform, but did not control the implementation process. They rather provided extensive support in the form of transmission of information and development of collaborative networks. Local authorities had complete autonomy in terms of decision-making and implementation process. Discussions, debates and decisions regarding implementation processes took place at the local level and included the participation of all actors present on the field. Implementation methods differ from a region to another, with is the consequence of the variation of the level of commitment of local actors but also the diversity of local realities. The reform was implemented according to existing structures and values, which means that it was in cohesion with the context in which it was implemented. These results cannot be generalized to all implementation processes of educational change in Finland but give a great insight of what could be the model used in Finland. Future studies could intent to confirm the model described here by studying other reforms that took place in Finland.