33 resultados para Mean-Reverting Jump-Diffusion


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Selective papers of the workshop on "Development of models and forest soil surveys for monitoring of soil carbon", Koli, Finland, April 5-9 2006.

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In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

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This work is devoted to the development of numerical method to deal with convection diffusion dominated problem with reaction term, non - stiff chemical reaction and stiff chemical reaction. The technique is based on the unifying Eulerian - Lagrangian schemes (particle transport method) under the framework of operator splitting method. In the computational domain, the particle set is assigned to solve the convection reaction subproblem along the characteristic curves created by convective velocity. At each time step, convection, diffusion and reaction terms are solved separately by assuming that, each phenomenon occurs separately in a sequential fashion. Moreover, adaptivities and projection techniques are used to add particles in the regions of high gradients (steep fronts) and discontinuities and transfer a solution from particle set onto grid point respectively. The numerical results show that, the particle transport method has improved the solutions of CDR problems. Nevertheless, the method is time consumer when compared with other classical technique e.g., method of lines. Apart from this advantage, the particle transport method can be used to simulate problems that involve movingsteep/smooth fronts such as separation of two or more elements in the system.

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The present study deals with innovation diffusion as the central component of innovation process and takes smart meters as a concrete example from the electric power industry. Smart meters are seen as key enablers of the industry-wide shift towards smart grids and are recognized by the European Union as means of reaching its environmental and energy goals. However, the spread of smart meters through the market, especially in Central East Europe (CEE), is not corresponding to the expectations and identified benefits. The current work synthesizes available data for the under-researched geographical region of CEE and clarifies the process of smart meter diffusion and drivers behind it. In addition to innovation theories the methods applied are rate of adoption and thematic analysis. The results prove the large gap between optimal and actual diffusion as well as the lagging position of CEE in comparison to the EU’s market leaders. The smart metering market is driven from bottom-up and the majority of CEE countries have already carried out or started the initial activities. Therefore, in coming years more intensive smart meters deployment will be seen.

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Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

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The interaction mean free path between neutrons and TRISO particles is simulated using scripts written in MATLAB to solve the increasing error present with an increase in the packing factor in the reactor physics code Serpent. Their movement is tracked both in an unbounded and in a bounded space. Their track is calculated, depending on the program, linearly directly using the position vectors of the neutrons and the surface equations of all the fuel particles; by dividing the space in multiple subspaces, each of which contain a fraction of the total number of particles, and choosing the particles from those subspaces through which the neutron passes through; or by choosing the particles that lie within an infinite cylinder formed on the movement axis of the neutron. The estimate from the current analytical model, based on an exponential distribution, for the mean free path, utilized by Serpent, is used as a reference result. The results from the implicit model in Serpent imply a too long mean free path with high packing factors. The received results support this observation by producing, with a packing factor of 17 %, approximately 2.46 % shorter mean free path compared to the reference model. This is supported by the packing factor experienced by the neutron, the simulation of which resulted in a 17.29 % packing factor. It was also observed that the neutrons leaving from the surfaces of the fuel particles, in contrast to those starting inside the moderator, do not follow the exponential distribution. The current model, as it is, is thus not valid in the determination of the free path lengths of the neutrons.