Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

Virtual communities : a virtual treasure trove for end-user developers

End-user development is a very common but often largely overlooked phenomenon in information systems research and practice. End-user development means that regular people, the end-users of software, and not professional developers are doing software development. A large number of people are directly or indirectly impacted by the results of these non-professional development activities. The numbers of users performing end-user development activities are difficult to ascertain precisely. But it is very large, and still growing. Computer adoption is growing towards 100% and many new types of computational devices are continually introduced. In addition, other devices not previously programmable are becoming so. This means that, at this very moment, hundreds of millions of people are likely struggling with development problems. Furthermore, software itself is continually being adapted for more flexibility, enabling users to change the behaviour of their software themselves. New software and services are helping to transform users from consumers to producers. Much of this is now found on-line. The problem for the end-user developer is that little of this development is supported by anyone. Often organisations do not notice end-user development and consequently neither provide support for it, nor are equipped to be able to do so. Many end-user developers do not belong to any organisation at all. Also, the end-user development process may be aggravating the problem. End-users are usually not really committed to the development process, which tends to be more iterative and ad hoc. This means support becomes a distant third behind getting the job done and figuring out the development issues to get the job done. Sometimes the software itself may exacerbate the issue by simplifying the development process, deemphasising the difficulty of the task being undertaken. On-line support could be the lifeline the end-user developer needs. Going online one can find all the knowledge one could ever need. However, that does still not help the end-user apply this information or knowledge in practice. A virtual community, through its ability to adopt the end-user’s specific context, could surmount this final obstacle. This thesis explores the concept of end-user development and how it could be supported through on-line sources, in particular virtual communities, which it is argued here, seem to fit the end-user developer’s needs very well. The experiences of real end-user developers and prior literature were used in this process. Emphasis has been on those end-user developers, e.g. small business owners, who may have literally nowhere to turn to for support. Adopting the viewpoint of the end-user developer, the thesis examines the question of how an end-user could use a virtual community effectively, improving the results of the support process. Assuming the common situation where the demand for support outstrips the supply.

Challenges in managing large-scale agile software development transformation

Adapting and scaling up agile concepts, which are characterized by iterative, self-directed, customer value focused methods, may not be a simple endeavor. This thesis concentrates on studying challenges in a large-scale agile software development transformation in order to enhance understanding and bring insight into the underlying factors for such emerging challenges. This topic is approached through understanding the concepts of agility and different methods compared to traditional plan-driven processes, complex adaptive theory and the impact of organizational culture on agile transformational efforts. The empirical part was conducted by a qualitative case study approach. The internationally operating software development case organization had a year of experience of an agile transformation effort during it had also undergone organizational realignment efforts. The primary data collection was conducted through semi-structured interviews supported by participatory observation. As a result the identified challenges were categorized under four broad themes: organizational, management, team dynamics and process related. The identified challenges indicate that agility is a multifaceted concept. Agile practices may bring visibility in issues of which many are embedded in the organizational culture or in the management style. Viewing software development as a complex adaptive system could facilitate understanding of the underpinning philosophy and eventually solving the issues: interactions are more important than processes and solving a complex problem, such a novel software development, requires constant feedback and adaptation to changing requirements. Furthermore, an agile implementation seems to be unique in nature, and agents engaged in the interaction are the pivotal part of the success of achieving agility. In case agility is not a strategic choice for whole organization, it seems additional issues may arise due to different ways of working in different parts of an organization. Lastly, detailed suggestions to mitigate the challenges of the case organization are provided.

Artificial Ribonucleases: Oligonucleotides Conjugated with Metal Ion Chelates of Azacrowns

Ribonucleic acid (RNA) has many biological roles in cells: it takes part in coding, decoding, regulating and expressing of the genes as well as has the capacity to work as a catalyst in numerous biological reactions. These qualities make RNA an interesting object of various studies. Development of useful tools with which to investigate RNA is a prerequisite for more advanced research in the field. One of such tools may be the artificial ribonucleases, which are oligonucleotide conjugates that sequence-selectively cleave complementary RNA targets. This thesis is aimed at developing new efficient metal-ion-based artificial ribonucleases. On one hand, to solve the challenges related to solid-supported synthesis of metal-ion-binding conjugates of oligonucleotides, and on the other hand, to quantify their ability to cleave various oligoribonucleotide targets in a pre-designed sequence selective manner. In this study several artificial ribonucleases based on cleaving capability of metal ion chelated azacrown moiety were designed and synthesized successfully. The most efficient ribonucleases were the ones with two azacrowns close to the 3´- end of the oligonucleotide strand. Different transition metal ions were introduced into the azacrown moiety and among them, the Zn2+ ion was found to be better than Cu2+ and Ni2+ ions.

Comparison and problems between Traditional and Agile software development methods

In today’s world because of the rapid advancement in the field of technology and business, the requirements are not clear, and they are changing continuously in the development process. Due to those changes in the requirements the software development becomes very difficult. Use of traditional software development methods such as waterfall method is not a good option, as the traditional software development methods are not flexible to requirements and the software can be late and over budget. For developing high quality software that satisfies the customer, the organizations can use software development methods, such as agile methods which are flexible to change requirements at any stage in the development process. The agile methods are iterative and incremental methods that can accelerate the delivery of the initial business values through the continuous planning and feedback, and there is close communication between the customer and developers. The main purpose of the current thesis is to find out the problems in traditional software development and to show how agile methods reduced those problems in software development. The study also focuses the different success factors of agile methods, the success rate of agile projects and comparison between traditional and agile software development.

Thermal reactions of the major hydrocarbon components of biomass gasification gas

Gasification of biomass is an efficient method process to produce liquid fuels, heat and electricity. It is interesting especially for the Nordic countries, where raw material for the processes is readily available. The thermal reactions of light hydrocarbons are a major challenge for industrial applications. At elevated temperatures, light hydrocarbons react spontaneously to form higher molecular weight compounds. In this thesis, this phenomenon was studied by literature survey, experimental work and modeling effort. The literature survey revealed that the change in tar composition is likely caused by the kinetic entropy. The role of the surface material is deemed to be an important factor in the reactivity of the system. The experimental results were in accordance with previous publications on the subject. The novelty of the experimental work lies in the used time interval for measurements combined with an industrially relevant temperature interval. The aspects which are covered in the modeling include screening of possible numerical approaches, testing of optimization methods and kinetic modelling. No significant numerical issues were observed, so the used calculation routines are adequate for the task. Evolutionary algorithms gave a better performance combined with better fit than the conventional iterative methods such as Simplex and Levenberg-Marquardt methods. Three models were fitted on experimental data. The LLNL model was used as a reference model to which two other models were compared. A compact model which included all the observed species was developed. The parameter estimation performed on that model gave slightly impaired fit to experimental data than LLNL model, but the difference was barely significant. The third tested model concentrated on the decomposition of hydrocarbons and included a theoretical description of the formation of carbon layer on the reactor walls. The fit to experimental data was extremely good. Based on the simulation results and literature findings, it is likely that the surface coverage of carbonaceous deposits is a major factor in thermal reactions.

[Kirjallisuutta]

Kirjallisuusarvostelu

Framework for Regional Heating Energy Efficiency Assessment

The aim of this project was to develop general framework for systematic assessment of energy efficiency of heating on regional level in Russia. The framework created during this project includes two main instruments, namely: general regional heating energy efficiency assessment model (REEMod) and general regional heating energy efficiency assessment criteria for housing areas (REECrit). Framework pays extreme attention to realization of energy saving, overall cost efficiency and comfortable indoor climate. Life-cycle ideology was applied during creation of the framework. Application of the framework can provide decision-making process with systematically collected and processed information on current state of areas energy efficiency. Such information will help decision makers to evaluate current situation of the whole energy chain, to compare different development scenarios and to identify the most efficient improvement methods, thus supporting realization of regions efficient energy management. Simultaneous pursuit of energy savings, cost efficiency and indoor air quality can contribute to development of sustainable community. Presented instruments should be continuously developed further as an iterative process based on knew experience, development of technology and overall understanding of energy efficiency issues.

Intellectual Capital Measurement in IT industry

The goal of this research – which is to critically analyze current theories and methods of intangible assets evaluation and potentially develop and test new methodology based on the practical example(s) in the IT industry. Having this goal in mind the main research questions in this paper will be: What are advantages and disadvantages of the current practices of measurement intellectual capital or valuation of intangible assets? How to properly measure intellectual capital in IT? Resulting method exhibits a new unique approach to the IC measurement and potentially even larger field of application. Despite the fact that in this particular research, I focused my attention on IT (Software and Internet services cluster – to be exact), the logic behind the method is applicable within any industry since the method is designed to be fully compliant with measurement theory and thus can be properly scaled for any application. Building a new method is a difficult and iterative process: in the current iteration the method stands out as rather a theoretical concept rather than a business tool, however even current concept totally fulfills its purpose as a benchmarking tool for measuring intellectual capital in IT industry.

Optimal processing chain for waste power plant

This study is done to examine waste power plant’s optimal processing chain and it is important to consider from several points of view on why one option is better than the other. This is to insure that the right decision is made. Incineration of waste has devel-oped to be one decent option for waste disposal. There are several legislation matters and technical options to consider when starting up a waste power plant. From the tech-niques pretreatment, burner and flue gas cleaning are the biggest ones to consider. The treatment of incineration residues is important since it can be very harmful for the envi-ronment. The actual energy production from waste is not highly efficient and there are several harmful compounds emitted. Recycling of waste before incineration is not very typical and there are not many recycling options for materials that cannot be easily re-cycled to same product. Life cycle assessment is a good option for studying the envi-ronmental effect of the system. It has four phases that are part of the iterative study process. In this study the case environment is a waste power plant. The modeling of the plant is done with GaBi 6 software and the scope is from gate-to-grave. There are three different scenarios, from which the first and second are compared to each other to reach conclusions. Zero scenario is part of the study to demonstrate situation without the power plant. The power plant in this study is recycling some materials in scenario one and in scenario two even more materials and utilize the bottom ash more ways than one. The model has the substitutive processes for the materials when they are not recycled in the plant. The global warming potential results show that scenario one is the best option. The variable costs that have been considered tell the same result. The conclusion is that the waste power plant should not recycle more and utilize bottom ash in a number of ways. The area is not ready for that kind of utilization and production from recycled materials.

Implementation of Quantitative Reaction-based Model Refinement

Building a computational model for complex biological systems is an iterative process. It starts from an abstraction of the process and then incorporates more details regarding the specific biochemical reactions which results in the change of the model fit. Meanwhile, the model’s numerical properties such as its numerical fit and validation should be preserved. However, refitting the model after each refinement iteration is computationally expensive resource-wise. There is an alternative approach which ensures the model fit preservation without the need to refit the model after each refinement iteration. And this approach is known as quantitative model refinement. The aim of this thesis is to develop and implement a tool called ModelRef which does the quantitative model refinement automatically. It is both implemented as a stand-alone Java application and as one of Anduril framework components. ModelRef performs data refinement of a model and generates the results in two different well known formats (SBML and CPS formats). The development of this tool successfully reduces the time and resource needed and the errors generated as well by traditional reiteration of the whole model to perform the fitting procedure.

Formal modelling for digital media distribution

Human beings have always strived to preserve their memories and spread their ideas. In the beginning this was always done through human interpretations, such as telling stories and creating sculptures. Later, technological progress made it possible to create a recording of a phenomenon; first as an analogue recording onto a physical object, and later digitally, as a sequence of bits to be interpreted by a computer. By the end of the 20th century technological advances had made it feasible to distribute media content over a computer network instead of on physical objects, thus enabling the concept of digital media distribution. Many digital media distribution systems already exist, and their continued, and in many cases increasing, usage is an indicator for the high interest in their future enhancements and enriching. By looking at these digital media distribution systems, we have identified three main areas of possible improvement: network structure and coordination, transport of content over the network, and the encoding used for the content. In this thesis, our aim is to show that improvements in performance, efficiency and availability can be done in conjunction with improvements in software quality and reliability through the use of formal methods: mathematical approaches to reasoning about software so that we can prove its correctness, together with the desirable properties. We envision a complete media distribution system based on a distributed architecture, such as peer-to-peer networking, in which different parts of the system have been formally modelled and verified. Starting with the network itself, we show how it can be formally constructed and modularised in the Event-B formalism, such that we can separate the modelling of one node from the modelling of the network itself. We also show how the piece selection algorithm in the BitTorrent peer-to-peer transfer protocol can be adapted for on-demand media streaming, and how this can be modelled in Event-B. Furthermore, we show how modelling one peer in Event-B can give results similar to simulating an entire network of peers. Going further, we introduce a formal specification language for content transfer algorithms, and show that having such a language can make these algorithms easier to understand. We also show how generating Event-B code from this language can result in less complexity compared to creating the models from written specifications. We also consider the decoding part of a media distribution system by showing how video decoding can be done in parallel. This is based on formally defined dependencies between frames and blocks in a video sequence; we have shown that also this step can be performed in a way that is mathematically proven correct. Our modelling and proving in this thesis is, in its majority, tool-based. This provides a demonstration of the advance of formal methods as well as their increased reliability, and thus, advocates for their more wide-spread usage in the future.

Language-specific aspects of reading acquisition: the case of Russian

We have investigated Russian children’s reading acquisition during an intermediate period in their development: after literacy onset, but before they have acquired well-developed decoding skills. The results of our study suggest that Russian first graders rely primarily on phonemes and syllables as reading grain-size units. Phonemic awareness seems to have reached the metalinguistic level more rapidly than syllabic awareness after the onset of reading instruction, the reversal which is typical for the initial stages of formal reading instruction creating external demand for phonemic awareness. Another reason might be the inherent instability of syllabic boundaries in Russian. We have shown that body-coda is a more natural representation of subsyllabic structure in Russian than onset-rime. We also found that Russian children displayed variability of syllable onset and offset decisions which can be attributed to the lack of congruence between syllabic and morphemic word division in Russian. We suggest that fuzziness of syllable boundary decisions is a sign of the transitional nature of this stage in the reading development and it indicates progress towards an awareness of morphologically determined closed syllables. Our study also showed that orthographic complexity exerts an influence on reading in Russian from the very start of reading acquisition. Besides, we found that Russian first graders experience fluency difficulties in reading orthographically simple words and nonwords of two and more syllables. The transition from monosyllabic to bisyllabic lexical items constitutes a certain threshold, for which the syllabic structure seemed to be of no difference. When we compared the outcomes of the Russian children with the ones produced by speakers of other languages, we discovered that in the tasks which could be performed with the help of alphabetic recoding Russian children’s accuracy was comparable to that of children learning to read in relatively shallow orthographies. In tasks where this approach works only partially, Russian children demonstrated accuracy results similar to those in deeper orthographies. This pattern of moderate results in accuracy and excellent performance in terms of reaction times is an indication that children apply phonological recoding as their dominant strategy to various reading tasks and are only beginning to develop suitable multiple strategies in dealing with orthographically complex material. The development of these strategies is not completed during Grade 1 and the shift towards diversification of strategies apparently continues in Grade 2.

Real-time simulation of multibody systems with applications for working mobile vehicles

This dissertation describes an approach for developing a real-time simulation for working mobile vehicles based on multibody modeling. The use of multibody modeling allows comprehensive description of the constrained motion of the mechanical systems involved and permits real-time solving of the equations of motion. By carefully selecting the multibody formulation method to be used, it is possible to increase the accuracy of the multibody model while at the same time solving equations of motion in real-time. In this study, a multibody procedure based on semi-recursive and augmented Lagrangian methods for real-time dynamic simulation application is studied in detail. In the semirecursive approach, a velocity transformation matrix is introduced to describe the dependent coordinates into relative (joint) coordinates, which reduces the size of the generalized coordinates. The augmented Lagrangian method is based on usage of global coordinates and, in that method, constraints are accounted using an iterative process. A multibody system can be modelled as either rigid or flexible bodies. When using flexible bodies, the system can be described using a floating frame of reference formulation. In this method, the deformation mode needed can be obtained from the finite element model. As the finite element model typically involves large number of degrees of freedom, reduced number of deformation modes can be obtained by employing model order reduction method such as Guyan reduction, Craig-Bampton method and Krylov subspace as shown in this study The constrained motion of the working mobile vehicles is actuated by the force from the hydraulic actuator. In this study, the hydraulic system is modeled using lumped fluid theory, in which the hydraulic circuit is divided into volumes. In this approach, the pressure wave propagation in the hoses and pipes is neglected. The contact modeling is divided into two stages: contact detection and contact response. Contact detection determines when and where the contact occurs, and contact response provides the force acting at the collision point. The friction between tire and ground is modelled using the LuGre friction model, which describes the frictional force between two surfaces. Typically, the equations of motion are solved in the full matrices format, where the sparsity of the matrices is not considered. Increasing the number of bodies and constraint equations leads to the system matrices becoming large and sparse in structure. To increase the computational efficiency, a technique for solution of sparse matrices is proposed in this dissertation and its implementation demonstrated. To assess the computing efficiency, augmented Lagrangian and semi-recursive methods are implemented employing a sparse matrix technique. From the numerical example, the results show that the proposed approach is applicable and produced appropriate results within the real-time period.

Two-dimensional drift-diffusion simulation of organic solar cells

The aim of this master's thesis is to develop a two-dimensional drift-di usion model, which describes charge transport in organic solar cells. The main bene t of a two-dimensional model compared to a one-dimensional one is the inclusion of the nanoscale morphology of the active layer of a bulk heterojunction solar cell. The developed model was used to study recombination dynamics at the donor-acceptor interface. In some cases, it was possible to determine e ective parameters, which reproduce the results of the two-dimensional model in the one-dimensional case. A summary of the theory of charge transport in semiconductors was presented and discussed in the context of organic materials. Additionally, the normalization and discretization procedures required to nd a numerical solution to the charge transport problem were outlined. The charge transport problem was solved by implementing an iterative scheme called successive over-relaxation. The obtained solution is given as position-dependent electric potential, free charge carrier concentrations and current densities in the active layer. An interfacial layer, separating the pure phases, was introduced in order to describe charge dynamics occurring at the interface between the donor and acceptor. For simplicity, an e ective generation of free charge carriers in the interfacial layer was implemented. The pure phases simply act as transport layers for the photogenerated charges. Langevin recombination was assumed in the two-dimensional model and an analysis of the apparent recombination rate in the one-dimensional case is presented. The recombination rate in a two-dimensional model is seen to e ectively look like reduced Langevin recombination at open circuit. Replicating the J-U curves obtained in the two-dimensional model is, however, not possible by introducing a constant reduction factor in the Langevin recombination rate. The impact of an acceptor domain in the pure donor phase was investigated. Two cases were considered, one where the acceptor domain is isolated and another where it is connected to the bulk of the acceptor. A comparison to the case where no isolated domains exist was done in order to quantify the observed reduction in the photocurrent. The results show that all charges generated at the isolated domain are lost to recombination, but the domain does not have a major impact on charge transport. Trap-assisted recombination at interfacial trap states was investigated, as well as the surface dipole caused by the trapped charges. A theoretical expression for the ideality factor n_id as a function of generation was derived and shown to agree with simulation data. When the theoretical expression was fitted to simulation data, no interface dipole was observed.