Free PAPP-A: a Novel Marker in Acute Coronary Syndrome Patients

In recent years, one important objective of cardiovascular research has been to find new markers that would improve the risk stratification and diagnosis of patients presenting with symptoms of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) is a large metalloproteinase involved in insulin-like growth factor signalling. It is expressed in various tissues and seems to be involved in many physiological and pathological processes, such as folliculogenesis, bone formation, wound healing, pregnancy and atherosclerosis. The aim of this thesis was to investigate PAPP-A in ACS patients. Circulating concentrations of PAPP-A had been previously shown to be elevated in ACS. In this study it was revealed that the form of PAPP-A causing this elevation was the free noncomplexed PAPP-A. Thus, the form of PAPP-A in the circulation of ACS patients differed from the complexed PAPP-A form abundantly present in the circulation during pregnancy. A point-of-care method based on time-resolved immunofluorometric assays was developed, which enabled the rapid detection of free PAPP-A. The method was found to perform well with serum and heparin plasma samples as well as with heparinized whole blood samples. With this method the concentrations of free PAPP-A in healthy individuals were shown to be negligible. When the clinical performance of the method was evaluated with serum samples from ACS patients, it was shown that the free PAPP-A concentration in the admission sample was an independent predictor of myocardial infarction and death. Moreover, as a prognostic marker, free PAPP-A was revealed to be superior to total PAPPA, i.e. the combination of free and complexed PAPP-A, which has been measured by the other groups in this field. As heparin products are widely used as medication in ACS patients, the effect of heparin products on free PAPP-A molecule and circulating concentrations were also investigated in this study. It was shown that intravenous administration of low molecular weight or unfractionated heparin elicits a rapid release of free PAPP-A into the circulation in haemodialysis patients and patients undergoing angiography. Moreover, the interaction between PAPP-A and heparin was confirmed in gel filtration studies. Importantly, the patients included in the clinical evaluation of the free PAPP-A detection method developed had not received any heparin product medication before the admission sample and thus the results were not affected by the heparin effect. In conclusion, free PAPP-A was identified as a novel marker associated with ACS. The point-of-care methods developed enable rapid detection of this molecule which predicts adverse outcome when measured in the admission sample of ACS patients. However, the effect revealed of heparin products on circulating PAPP-A concentrations should be acknowledged when further studies are conducted related to free or total PAPP-A in ACS.

Free Flap Monitoring. Using Tissue Oxygen Measurement and Positron Emission Tomography

Aims:This study was carried out to evaluate the feasibility of two different methods to determine free flap perfusion in cancer patients undergoing major reconstructive surgery. The hypotheses was that low perfusion in the flap is associated with flap complications. Patients and methods: Between August 2002 and June 2008 at the Department of Otorhinolaryngology – Head and Neck Surgery, Department of Surgery, and at the PET Centre, Turku, 30 consecutive patients with 32 free flaps were included in this study. The perfusion of the free microvascular flaps was assessed with positron emission tomography (PET) and radioactive water ([¹⁵O] H₂O) in 40 radiowater injections in 33 PET studies. Furthermore, 24 free flaps were monitored with a continuous tissue oxygen measurement using flexible polarographic catheters for an average of three postoperative days. Results: Of the 17 patients operated on for head and neck (HN) cancer and reconstructed with 18 free flaps, three re-operations were carried out due to poor tissue oxygenation as indicated by p_tiO₂ monitoring results and three other patients were reoperated on for postoperative hematomas in the operated area. Blood perfusion assessed with PET (BF_PET) was above 2.0 mL / min / 100 g in all flaps and a low flap-to-muscle BFPET ratio appeared to correlate with poor survival of the flap. Survival in this group of HN cancer patients was 9.0 months (median, range 2.4-34.2) after a median follow-up of 11.9 months (range 1.0-61.0 months). Seven HN patients of this group are alive without any sign of recurrence and one patient has died of other causes. All of the 13 breast reconstruction patients included in the study are alive and free of disease at a median follow-up time of 27.4 months (range 13.9-35.7 months). Re-explorations were carried out in three patients due data provided by p_tiO₂ monitoring and one re-exploration was avoided on the basis of adequate blood perfusion assessed with PET. Two patients had donorsite morbidity and 3 patients had partial flap necrosis or fat necrosis. There were no total flap losses. Conclusions: P_tiO₂ monitoring is a feasible method of free flap monitoring when flap temperature is monitored and maintained close to the core temperature. When other monitoring methods give controversial results or are unavailable, [₁₅O] H₂O PET technique is feasible in the evaluation of the perfusion of the newly reconstructed free flaps.

Towards input/output-free modelling of linear infinite-dimensional systems in continuous time

This dissertation describes a networking approach to infinite-dimensional systems theory, where there is a minimal distinction between inputs and outputs. We introduce and study two closely related classes of systems, namely the state/signal systems and the port-Hamiltonian systems, and describe how they relate to each other. Some basic theory for these two classes of systems and the interconnections of such systems is provided. The main emphasis lies on passive and conservative systems, and the theoretical concepts are illustrated using the example of a lossless transfer line. Much remains to be done in this field and we point to some directions for future studies as well.

Free Prostate-specific Antigen Forms and Kallikrein-related Peptidase 2: Tools for Prostate Cancer Diagnostics

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is a marker that is commonly used in estimating prostate cancer risk. Prostate cancer is usually a slowly progressing disease, which might not cause any symptoms whatsoever. Nevertheless, some cases of cancer are aggressive and need to be treated before they become life-threatening. However, the blood PSA concentration may rise also in benign prostate diseases and using a single total PSA (tPSA) measurement to guide the decision on further examinations leads to many unnecessary biopsies, over-detection, and overtreatment of indolent cancers which would not require treatment. Therefore, there is a need for markers that would better separate cancer from benign disorders, and would also predict cancer aggressiveness. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether intact and nicked forms of free PSA (fPSA-I and fPSA-N) or human kallikrein-related peptidase 2 (hK2) could serve as new tools in estimating prostate cancer risk. First, the immunoassays for fPSA-I and free and total hK2 were optimized so that they would be less prone to assay interference caused by interfering factors present in some blood samples. The optimized assays were shown to work well and were used to study the marker concentrations in the clinical sample panels. The marker levels were measured from preoperative blood samples of prostate cancer patients scheduled for radical prostatectomy. The association of the markers with the cancer stage and grade was studied. It was found that among all tested markers and their combinations especially the ratio of fPSA-N to tPSA and ratio of free PSA (fPSA) to tPSA were associated with both cancer stage and grade. They might be useful in predicting the cancer aggressiveness, but further follow-up studies are necessary to fully evaluate the significance of the markers in this clinical setting. The markers tPSA, fPSA, fPSA-I and hK2 were combined in a statistical model which was previously shown to be able to reduce unnecessary biopsies when applied to large screening cohorts of men with elevated tPSA. The discriminative accuracy of this model was compared to models based on established clinical predictors in reference to biopsy outcome. The kallikrein model and the calculated fPSA-N concentrations (fPSA minus fPSA-I) correlated with the prostate volume and the model, when compared to the clinical models, predicted prostate cancer in biopsy equally well. Hence, the measurement of kallikreins in a blood sample could be used to replace the volume measurement which is time-consuming, needs instrumentation and skilled personnel and is an uncomfortable procedure. Overall, the model could simplify the estimation of prostate cancer risk. Finally, as the fPSA-N seems to be an interesting new marker, a direct immunoassay for measuring fPSA-N concentrations was developed. The analytical performance was acceptable, but the rather complicated assay protocol needs to be improved until it can be used for measuring large sample panels.

Development of new halogen-free and multifunctional flame retardants

I avhandlingen undersöktes nya typer av halogenfria flamskyddsmedel. De utvecklade azoalkanföreningarna skyddar polypropenplaster mot brand även i små halter och kan samtidigt förbättra plasternas övriga egenskaper. Undersökningen har medfört viktigt kunnande i övergången från effektiva men på flera sätt problematiska bromerade flamskyddsmedel mot miljövänligare alternativ. I Auberts undersökningar framkom att speciellt symmetriska cykliska azoalkaner, såsom dicyklohexylazoföreningar, uppvisar goda flamskyddande egenskaper i polypropenprodukter. Betydande flamskydd uppnåddes vid anmärkningsvärt låga koncentrationer av föreningarna (0,5-2 vikts-%) och formuleringarna klarar DIN 4102 B2-standardtestet som mäter brandsäkerheten i byggprodukter. I doktorsavhandlingen syntetiserades även en ny, innovativ radikalgenerator, bis(1-propyloxy-2,2,6,6-tetrametylpiperidyl)-4-diazen (AZONOR), som klarade av förutom det ovannämnda testet även NF P92-505- samt det mera krävande UL 94 VTM-2-standardtestet. Förutom flamskyddande verkan uppvisade denna multifunktionella förening ett utmärkt UV-skydd i polypropenplaster. Även efter 2000 timmar av föråldring i klimatkammare kunde ingen betydande minskning av flamskyddsmedlets effekt eller förvittring av polymerfilmen observeras. Konsumtionen av plastprodukter håller på att öka. För att kunna uppfylla de nutida kraven på brandsäkerhet bör man tillsätta flamskyddsmedel till de i sig mycket brandfarliga plasterna. Internationellt forskas det mycket i att finna ersättande produkter för de allmänt använda bromerade flamskyddsmedlen. I Auberts undersökning hittades välfungerande och till sina bieffekter lindrigare föreningar för att ersätta bromerade medel. De nya föreningarna har väckt stort intresse inom den akademiska och företagsvärlden.

Painted Into a Corner by Communities and Collections? Free Yourself with Metadata

Poster at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

New families of highly efficient, halogen-free flame retardants for polypropylene (PP)

The driving forces for current research of flame retardants are increased fire safety in combination with flame retardant formulations that fulfill the criteria of sustainable production and products. In recent years, important questions about the environmental safety of antimony, and in particular, brominated flame retardants have been raised. As a consequence of this, the current doctoral thesis work describes efforts to develop new halogen-free flame retardants that are based on various radical generators and phosphorous compounds. The investigation was first focused on compounds that are capable of generating alkyl radicals in order to study their role on flame retardancy of polypropylene. The family of azoalkanes was selected as the cleanest and most convenient source of free alkyl radicals. Therefore, a number of symmetrical and unsymmetrical azoalkanes of the general formula R-N=N-R’ were prepared. The experimental results show that in the series of different sized azocycloalkanes the flame retardant efficacy decreased in the following order: R = R´= cyclohexyl > cyclopentyl > cyclobutyl > cyclooctanyl > cyclododecanyl. However, in the series of aliphatic azoalkanes compounds, the efficacy decreased as followed: R = R´= n-alkyl > tert-butyl > tert-octyl. The most striking difference in flame retardant efficacy was observed in thick polypropylene plaques of 1 mm, e.g. azocyclohexane (AZO) had a much better flame retardant performance than did the commercial reference FR (Flamestab® NOR116) in thick PP sections. In addition, some of the prepared azoalkane flame retardants e.g. 4’4- bis(cyclohexylazocyclohexyl) methane (BISAZO) exhibited non-burning dripping behavior. Extrusion coating experiments of flame retarded low density polyethylene (LDPE) onto a standard machine finished Kraft paper were carried out in order to investigate the potential of azoalkanes in multilayer facings. The results show that azocyclohexane (AZO) and 4’4-bis (cyclohexylazocyclohexyl) methane (BISAZO) can significantly improve the flame retardant properties of low density polyethylene coated paper already at 0.5 wt.% loadings, provided that the maximum extrusion temperature of 260 oC is not exceeded and coating weight is kept low at 13 g/m2. In addition, various triazene-based flame retardants (RN1=N2-N3R’R’’) were prepared. For example, polypropylene samples containing a very low concentration of only 0.5 wt.% of bis- 4’4’-(3’3’-dimethyltriazene) diphenyl ether and other triazenes passed the DIN 4102-1 test with B2 classification. It is noteworthy that no burning dripping could be detected and the average burning times were very short with exceptionally low weight losses. Therefore, triazene compounds constitute a new and interesting family of radical generators for flame retarding of polymeric materials. The high flame retardant potential of triazenes can be attributed to their ability to generate various types of radicals during their thermal decomposition. According to thermogravimetric analysis/Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy/MS analysis, triazene units are homolytically cleaved into various aminyl, resonance-stabilized aryl radicals, and different CH fragments with simultaneous evolution of elemental nitrogen. Furthermore, the potential of thirteen aliphatic, aromatic, thiuram and heterocyclic substituted organic disulfide derivatives of the general formula R-S-S-R’ as a new group of halogen-free flame retardants for polypropylene films have been investigated. According to the DIN 4102- 1 standard ignitibility test, for the first time it has been demonstrated that many of the disulfides alone can effectively provide flame retardancy and self-extinguishing properties to polypropylene films at already very low concentrations of 0.5 wt.%. For the disulfide family, the highest FR activity was recorded for 5’5’-dithiobis (2-nitrobenzoic acid). Very low values for burning length (53 mm) and burning time (10 s) reflect significantly increased fire retardant performance of this disulfide compared to other compounds in this series as well as to Flamestab® NOR116. Finally, two new, phosphorus-based flame retardants were synthesized: P’P-diphenyl phosphinic hydrazide (PAH) and melamine phenyl phosphonate (MPhP). The DIN 4102-1 test and the more stringent UL94 vertical burning test (UL94 V) were used to assess the formulations ability to extinguish a flame once ignited. A very strong synergistic effect with azoalkanes was found, i.e. in combination with these radical generators even UL94 V0 rate could be obtained.

Stiffness based trajectory planning and feedforward based vibration suppression control of parallel robot machines

The dissertation proposes two control strategies, which include the trajectory planning and vibration suppression, for a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine, with the aim of attaining the satisfactory machining performance. For a given prescribed trajectory of the robot's end-effector in the Cartesian space, a set of trajectories in the robot's joint space are generated based on the best stiffness performance of the robot along the prescribed trajectory. To construct the required system-wide analytical stiffness model for the serial-parallel robot machine, a variant of the virtual joint method (VJM) is proposed in the dissertation. The modified method is an evolution of Gosselin's lumped model that can account for the deformations of a flexible link in more directions. The effectiveness of this VJM variant is validated by comparing the computed stiffness results of a flexible link with the those of a matrix structural analysis (MSA) method. The comparison shows that the numerical results from both methods on an individual flexible beam are almost identical, which, in some sense, provides mutual validation. The most prominent advantage of the presented VJM variant compared with the MSA method is that it can be applied in a flexible structure system with complicated kinematics formed in terms of flexible serial links and joints. Moreover, by combining the VJM variant and the virtual work principle, a systemwide analytical stiffness model can be easily obtained for mechanisms with both serial kinematics and parallel kinematics. In the dissertation, a system-wide stiffness model of a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine is constructed based on integration of the VJM variant and the virtual work principle. Numerical results of its stiffness performance are reported. For a kinematic redundant robot, to generate a set of feasible joints' trajectories for a prescribed trajectory of its end-effector, its system-wide stiffness performance is taken as the constraint in the joints trajectory planning in the dissertation. For a prescribed location of the end-effector, the robot permits an infinite number of inverse solutions, which consequently yields infinite kinds of stiffness performance. Therefore, a differential evolution (DE) algorithm in which the positions of redundant joints in the kinematics are taken as input variables was employed to search for the best stiffness performance of the robot. Numerical results of the generated joint trajectories are given for a kinematic redundant serial-parallel robot machine, IWR (Intersector Welding/Cutting Robot), when a particular trajectory of its end-effector has been prescribed. The numerical results show that the joint trajectories generated based on the stiffness optimization are feasible for realization in the control system since they are acceptably smooth. The results imply that the stiffness performance of the robot machine deviates smoothly with respect to the kinematic configuration in the adjacent domain of its best stiffness performance. To suppress the vibration of the robot machine due to varying cutting force during the machining process, this dissertation proposed a feedforward control strategy, which is constructed based on the derived inverse dynamics model of target system. The effectiveness of applying such a feedforward control in the vibration suppression has been validated in a parallel manipulator in the software environment. The experimental study of such a feedforward control has also been included in the dissertation. The difficulties of modelling the actual system due to the unknown components in its dynamics is noticed. As a solution, a back propagation (BP) neural network is proposed for identification of the unknown components of the dynamics model of the target system. To train such a BP neural network, a modified Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm that can utilize an experimental input-output data set of the entire dynamic system is introduced in the dissertation. Validation of the BP neural network and the modified Levenberg- Marquardt algorithm is done, respectively, by a sinusoidal output approximation, a second order system parameters estimation, and a friction model estimation of a parallel manipulator, which represent three different application aspects of this method.

Simulation of the Interaction Mean Free Path between Neutrons and TRISO Particles

The interaction mean free path between neutrons and TRISO particles is simulated using scripts written in MATLAB to solve the increasing error present with an increase in the packing factor in the reactor physics code Serpent. Their movement is tracked both in an unbounded and in a bounded space. Their track is calculated, depending on the program, linearly directly using the position vectors of the neutrons and the surface equations of all the fuel particles; by dividing the space in multiple subspaces, each of which contain a fraction of the total number of particles, and choosing the particles from those subspaces through which the neutron passes through; or by choosing the particles that lie within an infinite cylinder formed on the movement axis of the neutron. The estimate from the current analytical model, based on an exponential distribution, for the mean free path, utilized by Serpent, is used as a reference result. The results from the implicit model in Serpent imply a too long mean free path with high packing factors. The received results support this observation by producing, with a packing factor of 17 %, approximately 2.46 % shorter mean free path compared to the reference model. This is supported by the packing factor experienced by the neutron, the simulation of which resulted in a 17.29 % packing factor. It was also observed that the neutrons leaving from the surfaces of the fuel particles, in contrast to those starting inside the moderator, do not follow the exponential distribution. The current model, as it is, is thus not valid in the determination of the free path lengths of the neutrons.

Modelling the super-equilibria in thermal biomass conversion : applications and limitations of the constrained free energy method

Bioenergi ses som en viktig del av det nu- och framtida sortimentet av inhemsk energi. Svartlut, bark och skogsavfall täcker mer än en femtedel av den inhemska energianvändningen. Produktionsanläggningar kan fungera ofullständigt och en mängd gas-, partikelutsläpp och tjära produceras samtidigt och kan leda till beläggningsbildning och korrosion. Orsaken till dessa problem är ofta obalans i processen: vissa föreningar anrikas i processen och superjämviktstillstånd är bildas. I denna doktorsavhandling presenteras en ny beräkningsmetod, med vilken man kan beskriva superjämviktstillståndet, de viktigaste kemiska reaktionerna, processens värmeproduktion och tillståndsstorheter samtidigt. Beräkningsmetoden grundar sig på en unik frienergimetod med bivillkor som har utvecklats vid VTT. Den här så kallade CFE-metoden har tidigare utnyttjats i pappers-, metall- och kemiindustrin. Applikationer för bioenergi, vilka är demonstrerade i doktorsavhandlingen, är ett nytt användingsområde för metoden. Studien visade att beräkningsmetoden är väl lämpad för högtemperaturenergiprocesser. Superjämviktstillstånden kan uppstå i dessa processer och det kemiska systemet kan definieras med några bivillkor. Typiska tillämpningar är förbränning av biomassa och svartlut, förgasning av biomassa och uppkomsten av kväveoxider. Också olika sätt att definiera superjämviktstillstånd presenterades i doktorsavhandlingen: empiriska konstanter, empiriska hastighetsuttryck eller reaktionsmekanismer kan användas. Resultaten av doktorsavhandlingen kan utnyttjas i framtiden i processplaneringen och i undersökning av nya tekniska lösningar för förgasning, förbränningsteknik och biobränslen. Den presenterade metoden är ett bra alternativ till de traditionella mekanistiska och fenomenmodeller och kombinerar de bästa delarna av både. --------------------------------------------------------------- Bioenergia on tärkeä osa nykyistä ja tulevaa kotimaista energiapalettia. Mustalipeä, kuori ja metsätähteet kattavat yli viidenneksen kotimaisesta energian kulutuksesta. Tuotantolaitokset eivät kuitenkaan aina toimi täydellisesti ja niiden prosesseissa syntyy erilaisia kaasu- ja hiukkaspäästöjä, tervoja sekä prosessilaitteita kuluttavia saostumia ja ruostumista. Usein syy näihin ongelmiin on prosessissa esiintyvä epätasapainotila: tietyt yhdisteet rikastuvat prosessissa ja muodostavat supertasapainotiloja. Väitöstyössä kehitettiin uusi laskentamenetelmä, jolla voidaan kuvata nämä supertasapainotilat, tärkeimmät niihin liittyvät kemialliset reaktiot, prosessin lämmöntuotanto ja tilansuureet yhtä aikaa. Laskentamenetelmä perustuu VTT:llä kehitettyyn ainutlaatuiseen rajoitettuun vapaaenergiamenetelmään. Tätä niin kutsuttua CFE-menetelmää on aiemmin sovelluttu onnistuneesti muun muassa paperi-, metalli- ja kemianteollisuudessa. Väitöstyössä esitetyt bioenergiasovellukset ovat uusi sovellusalue menetelmälle. Työ osoitti laskentatavan soveltuvan hyvin korkealämpöisiin energiatekniikan prosesseihin, joissa kemiallista systeemiä rajoittavia tekijöitä oli rajallinen määrä ja siten super-tasapainotila saattoi muodostua prosessin aikana. Tyypillisiä sovelluskohteita ovat biomassan ja mustalipeän poltto, biomassan kaasutus ja typpioksidipäästöt. Työn aikana arvioitiin myös erilaisia tapoja määritellä super-tasapainojen muodostumista rajoittavat tekijät. Rajoitukset voitiin tehdä teollisiin mittauksiin pohjautuen, kokeellisia malleja hyödyntäen tai mekanistiseen reaktiokinetiikkaan perustuen. Tulevaisuudessa väitöstyön tuloksia voidaan hyödyntää prosessisuunnittelussa ja tutkittaessa uusia teknisiä ratkaisuja kaasutus- ja polttotekniikoissa sekä biopolttoaineiden tutkimuksessa. Kehitetty menetelmä tarjoaa hyvän vaihtoehdon perinteisille mekanistisille ja ilmiömalleille yhdistäen näiden parhaita puolia.

Vibration analysis of a power take-off line

Gear rattle is a phenomenon that occurs when idling or lightly loaded gears collide due to engine’s torque fluctuations. This behaviour is related to vibration behaviour of the transmission system. Aim of this master’s thesis is to evaluate Adams and Adams/Machinery as a simulation tools for modelling the rattle e ect in a transmission system. A case study of tractor’s power take-o driveline, suspected to be prone to rattle, is performed in this work. Modelling methods used by Adams in this type of study are presented in the theory section while simulation model build with the software during this work is presented in the results. The Machinery toolbox is used to create gears and bearings while other model components are created with standard Adams tool set. Geometries and excitations are exported from other softwares. Results were obtained from multiple variations of a base model. These result sets and literature review suggest that Adams/Machinery may not be the most suitable tool for rattle analysis. While the system behaviour was partially captured, for accurate modelling user-written routines must be used which may be more easily performed with other tools. Further research about this topic is required.

Defining Contexts in Context-Free Grammars

This thesis introduces an extension of Chomsky’s context-free grammars equipped with operators for referring to left and right contexts of strings.The new model is called grammar with contexts. The semantics of these grammars are given in two equivalent ways — by language equations and by logical deduction, where a grammar is understood as a logic for the recursive definition of syntax. The motivation for grammars with contexts comes from an extensive example that completely defines the syntax and static semantics of a simple typed programming language. Grammars with contexts maintain most important practical properties of context-free grammars, including a variant of the Chomsky normal form. For grammars with one-sided contexts (that is, either left or right), there is a cubic-time tabular parsing algorithm, applicable to an arbitrary grammar. The time complexity of this algorithm can be improved to quadratic,provided that the grammar is unambiguous, that is, it only allows one parsefor every string it defines. A tabular parsing algorithm for grammars withtwo-sided contexts has fourth power time complexity. For these grammarsthere is a recognition algorithm that uses a linear amount of space. For certain subclasses of grammars with contexts there are low-degree polynomial parsing algorithms. One of them is an extension of the classical recursive descent for context-free grammars; the version for grammars with contexts still works in linear time like its prototype. Another algorithm, with time complexity varying from linear to cubic depending on the particular grammar, adapts deterministic LR parsing to the new model. If all context operators in a grammar define regular languages, then such a grammar can be transformed to an equivalent grammar without context operators at all. This allows one to represent the syntax of languages in a more succinct way by utilizing context specifications. Linear grammars with contexts turned out to be non-trivial already over a one-letter alphabet. This fact leads to some undecidability results for this family of grammars

The Forecast Performance of Model-Free Implied Volatility: Evidence from DAX Index Options

Volatility has a central role in various theoretical and practical applications in financial markets. These include the applications related to portfolio theory, derivatives pricing and financial risk management. Both theoretical and practical applications require good estimates and forecasts for the asset return volatility. The goal of this study is to examine the forecast performance of one of the more recent volatility measures, model-free implied volatility. Model-free implied volatility is extracted from the prices in the option markets, and it aims to provide an unbiased estimate for the market’s expectation on the future level of volatility. Since it is extracted from the option prices, model-free implied volatility should contain all the relevant information that the market participants have. Moreover, model-free implied volatility requires less restrictive assumptions than the commonly used Black-Scholes implied volatility, which means that it should be less biased estimate for the market’s expectations. Therefore, it should also be a better forecast for the future volatility. The forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is evaluated by comparing it to the forecast performance of Black-Scholes implied volatility and GARCH(1,1) forecast. Weekly forecasts for six years period were calculated for the forecasted variable, German stock market index DAX. The data consisted of price observations for DAX index options. The forecast performance was measured using econometric methods, which aimed to capture the biasedness, accuracy and the information content of the forecasts. The results of the study suggest that the forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is superior to forecast performance of GARCH(1,1) forecast. However, the results also suggest that the forecast performance of model-free implied volatility is not as good as the forecast performance of Black-Scholes implied volatility, which is against the hypotheses based on theory. The results of this study are consistent with the majority of prior research on the subject.