Bayesian analysis of SEIR epidemic models

This thesis concerns the analysis of epidemic models. We adopt the Bayesian paradigm and develop suitable Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. This is done by considering an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, former Zaïre, 1995 as a case of SEIR epidemic models. We model the Ebola epidemic deterministically using ODEs and stochastically through SDEs to take into account a possible bias in each compartment. Since the model has unknown parameters, we use different methods to estimate them such as least squares, maximum likelihood and MCMC. The motivation behind choosing MCMC over other existing methods in this thesis is that it has the ability to tackle complicated nonlinear problems with large number of parameters. First, in a deterministic Ebola model, we compute the likelihood function by sum of square of residuals method and estimate parameters using the LSQ and MCMC methods. We sample parameters and then use them to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. From the sampled chain from the posterior, we test the convergence diagnostic and confirm the viability of the model. The results show that the Ebola model fits the observed onset data with high precision, and all the unknown model parameters are well identified. Second, we convert the ODE model into a SDE Ebola model. We compute the likelihood function using extended Kalman filter (EKF) and estimate parameters again. The motivation of using the SDE formulation here is to consider the impact of modelling errors. Moreover, the EKF approach allows us to formulate a filtered likelihood for the parameters of such a stochastic model. We use the MCMC procedure to attain the posterior distributions of the parameters of the SDE Ebola model drift and diffusion parts. In this thesis, we analyse two cases: (1) the model error covariance matrix of the dynamic noise is close to zero , i.e. only small stochasticity added into the model. The results are then similar to the ones got from deterministic Ebola model, even if methods of computing the likelihood function are different (2) the model error covariance matrix is different from zero, i.e. a considerable stochasticity is introduced into the Ebola model. This accounts for the situation where we would know that the model is not exact. As a results, we obtain parameter posteriors with larger variances. Consequently, the model predictions then show larger uncertainties, in accordance with the assumption of an incomplete model.

The role of extracellular matrix macromolecules in cancer and diabetic macroangiopathy – with special reference to decorin and hyaluronan

The central role of extracellular matrix (ECM) macromolecules in diseases such as cancer and atherosclerotic vascular diseases including diabetic macroangiopathy is indisputable. Decorin and hyaluronan (HA) represent vital ECM macromolecules in the microenvironment of cells and are centrally involved in human cancer and cardiovascular biology. In cancer, decorin is considered to play a tumor suppressive role. However, there is some discrepancy whether malignant cells express it. Regarding HA, its contribution to the development of atherosclerotic vascular diseases has been well established. Nevertheless, the precise role of HA in arterial narrowing associated with diabetes is not known. The present study focused on two vital ECM macromolecules, namely decorin and HA. First, decorin expression was studied in human tumorigenesis. Furthermore, the effect of adenovirus-mediated decorin transduction on selected cancer cell lines was investigated. The results invariably showed that cancer cells completely lacked decorin expression. The study also demonstrated that transducing cancer cells with decorin adenoviral vector markedly inhibited their malignant behavior. In line with this, a strong induction of decorin expression in normal human embryonic stem cells (hESCs), but not in abnormal hESCs was observed during their differentiation. Secondly, the significance of HA in the development of diabetic macroangiopathy in response to hyperglycemia was evaluated. Results showed that the synthesis of HA by vascular smooth muscle cells was significantly increased in response to high glucose concentration. This increase was associated with the diminished ability of the cells to contract collagen-rich matrix suggesting that HA participates in the disturbed vascular remodeling of diabetic patients. The results of this study support endeavours to develop novel ECM macromolecule -based therapies targeting cancer and cardiovascular diseases.

Filopodia and stromal extracellular matrix as regulators of cancer cell invasion and growth

Bidirectional exchange of information between the cancer cells and their environment is essential for cancer to evolve. Cancer cells lose the ability to regulate their growth, gain the ability to detach from neighboring cells and finally some of the cells disseminate from the primary tumor and invade to the adjacent tissue. During cancer progression, cells acquire features that promote cancer motility and proliferation one of them being increased filopodia number. Filopodia are dynamic actin-rich structures extending from the leading edge of migrating cells and the main function of these structures is to serve as environmental sensors. It is nowadays widely appreciated, that not only the cancer cells, but also the surrounding of the tumor – the tumor microenvironment- contribute to cancer cell dissemination and tumor growth. Activated stromal fibroblasts, also known as cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) actively participate on tumor progression. CAFs are the most abundant cell type surrounding the cancer cells and they are the main cell type producing the extracellular matrix (ECM) within tumor stroma. CAFs secrete growth factors to promote tumor growth, direct cancer cell invasion as well as modify the stromal ECM architecture. The aim of this thesis was to investigate the function of filopodia, particularly the role of filopodia-inducing protein Myosin-X (Myo10), in breast cancer cell invasion and metastasis. We found that Myo10 is an important regulator of basal type breast cancer spreading downstream of mutant p53. In addition, I investigated the role of CAFs and their secreted matrix on tumor growth. According to the results, CAF-derived matrix has altered organization and stiffness which induces the carcinoma cell proliferation via epigenetic mechanisms. I identified histone demethylase enzyme JMJD1a to be regulated by the stiffness and to participate in stiffness induced growth control.

A new and exact map of Sweden and Norway corrected from the best observations communicated to the Royal Society at London & the Royal Academy at Paris &c.

Kartta leikattu karttakuvaa reunastavan kehyksen ulkorajaa pitkin.

The Role of HR Management in the Corporate Matrix System

The successful performance of company in the market relates to the quality management of human capital aiming to improve the company's internal performance and external implementation of the core business strategy. Companies with matrix structure focusing on realization and development of innovation and technologies for the uncertain market need to select thoroughly the approach to HR management system. Human resource management has a significant impact on the organization and use a variety of instruments such as corporate information systems to fulfill their functions and objectives. There are three approaches to strategic control management depending on major impact on the major interference in employee decision-making, development of skills and his integration into the business strategy. The mainstream research has focus only on the framework of strategic planning of HR and general productivity of firm, but not on features of organizational structure and corporate software capabilities for human capital. This study tackles the before mentioned challenges, typical for matrix organization, by using the HR control management tools and corporate information system. The detailed analysis of industry producing and selling electromotor and heating equipment in this master thesis provides the opportunity to improve system for HR control and displays its application in the ERP software. The results emphasize the sustainable role of matrix HR input control for creating of independent project teams for matrix structure who are able to respond to various uncertainties of the market and use their skills for improving performance. Corporate information systems can be integrated into input control system by means of output monitoring to regulate and evaluate the processes of teams, using key performance indicators and reporting systems.