Bayesian methods for estimation, optimization and experimental design

Mathematical models often contain parameters that need to be calibrated from measured data. The emergence of efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods has made the Bayesian approach a standard tool in quantifying the uncertainty in the parameters. With MCMC, the parameter estimation problem can be solved in a fully statistical manner, and the whole distribution of the parameters can be explored, instead of obtaining point estimates and using, e.g., Gaussian approximations. In this thesis, MCMC methods are applied to parameter estimation problems in chemical reaction engineering, population ecology, and climate modeling. Motivated by the climate model experiments, the methods are developed further to make them more suitable for problems where the model is computationally intensive. After the parameters are estimated, one can start to use the model for various tasks. Two such tasks are studied in this thesis: optimal design of experiments, where the task is to design the next measurements so that the parameter uncertainty is minimized, and model-based optimization, where a model-based quantity, such as the product yield in a chemical reaction model, is optimized. In this thesis, novel ways to perform these tasks are developed, based on the output of MCMC parameter estimation. A separate topic is dynamical state estimation, where the task is to estimate the dynamically changing model state, instead of static parameters. For example, in numerical weather prediction, an estimate of the state of the atmosphere must constantly be updated based on the recently obtained measurements. In this thesis, a novel hybrid state estimation method is developed, which combines elements from deterministic and random sampling methods.

Design of Pulsed Electroacoustic Measurement System for Space Charge Characterisation

Pulsed electroacoustic (PEA) method is a commonly used non-destructive technique for investigating space charges. It has been developed since early 1980s. These days there is continuing interest for better understanding of the influence of space charge on the reliability of solid electrical insulation under high electric field. The PEA method is widely used for space charge profiling for its robust and relatively inexpensive features. The PEA technique relies on a voltage impulse used to temporarily disturb the space charge equilibrium in a dielectric. The acoustic wave is generated by charge movement in the sample and detected by means of a piezoelectric film. The spatial distribution of the space charge is contained within the detected signal. The principle of such a system is already well established, and several kinds of setups have been constructed for different measurement needs. This thesis presents the design of a PEA measurement system as a systems engineering project. The operating principle and some recent developments are summarised. The steps of electrical and mechanical design of the instrument are discussed. A common procedure for measuring space charges is explained and applied to verify the functionality of the system. The measurement system is provided as an additional basic research tool for the Corporate Research Centre of ABB (China) Ltd. It can be used to characterise flat samples with thickness of 0.2–0.5 mm under DC stress. The spatial resolution of the measurement is 20 μm.

Design of salient pole PM synchronous machines for a vehicle traction application – Analysis and

This doctoral thesis presents a study on the development of a liquid-cooled frame salient pole permanent-magnet-exited traction machine for a four-wheel-driven electric car. The emphasis of the thesis is put on a radial flux machine design in order to achieve a light-weight machine structure for traction applications. The design features combine electromagnetic and thermal design methods, because traction machine operation does not have a strict operating point. Arbitrary load cycles and the flexible supply require special attention in the design process. It is shown that accurate modelling of the machine magnetic state is essential for high-performance operation. The saturation effect related to the cross-saturation has to be taken carefully into account in order to achieve the desired operation. Two prototype machines have been designed and built for testing: one totally enclosed machine with a special magnet module pole arrangement and another through-ventilated machine with a more traditional embedded magnet structure. Both structures are built with magnetically salient structures in order to increase the torque production capability with the reluctance torque component. Both machine structures show potential for traction usage. However, the traditional embedded magnet design turns out to be mechanically the more secure one of these two machine options.

Design of an amplifier and an instrumentation setup for a harsh environment heat flux measurement application – case axial flux electric machine

Measurement is a tool for researching. Therefore, it is important that the measuring process is carried out correctly, without distorting the signal or the measured event. Researches of thermoelectric phenomena have been focused more on transverse thermoelectric phenomena during recent decades. Transverse Seebeck effect enables to produce thinner and faster heat flux sensor than before. Studies about transverse Seebeck effect have so far focused on materials, so in this Master’s Thesis instrumentation of transverse Seebeck effect based heat flux sensor is studied, This Master’s Thesis examines an equivalent circuit of transverse Seebeck effect heat flux sensors, their connectivity to electronics and choosing and design a right type amplifier. The research is carried out with a case study which is Gradient Heat Flux Sensors and an electrical motor. In this work, a general equivalent circuit was presented for the transverse Seebeck effect-based heat flux sensor. An amplifier was designed for the sensor of the case study, and the solution was produced for the measurement of the local heat flux of the electric motor to improve the electromagnetic compatibility.

Computational studies for the design of process equipment with complex geometries

This study combines several projects related to the flows in vessels with complex shapes representing different chemical apparata. Three major cases were studied. The first one is a two-phase plate reactor with a complex structure of intersecting micro channels engraved on one plate which is covered by another plain plate. The second case is a tubular microreactor, consisting of two subcases. The first subcase is a multi-channel two-component commercial micromixer (slit interdigital) used to mix two liquid reagents before they enter the reactor. The second subcase is a micro-tube, where the distribution of the heat generated by the reaction was studied. The third case is a conventionally packed column. However, flow, reactions or mass transfer were not modeled. Instead, the research focused on how to describe mathematically the realistic geometry of the column packing, which is rather random and can not be created using conventional computeraided design or engineering (CAD/CAE) methods. Several modeling approaches were used to describe the performance of the processes in the considered vessels. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was used to describe the details of the flow in the plate microreactor and micromixer. A space-averaged mass transfer model based on Fick’s law was used to describe the exchange of the species through the gas-liquid interface in the microreactor. This model utilized data, namely the values of the interfacial area, obtained by the corresponding CFD model. A common heat transfer model was used to find the heat distribution in the micro-tube. To generate the column packing, an additional multibody dynamic model was implemented. Auxiliary simulation was carried out to determine the position and orientation of every packing element in the column. This data was then exported into a CAD system to generate desirable geometry, which could further be used for CFD simulations. The results demonstrated that the CFD model of the microreactor could predict the flow pattern well enough and agreed with experiments. The mass transfer model allowed to estimate the mass transfer coefficient. Modeling for the second case showed that the flow in the micromixer and the heat transfer in the tube could be excluded from the larger model which describes the chemical kinetics in the reactor. Results of the third case demonstrated that the auxiliary simulation could successfully generate complex random packing not only for the column but also for other similar cases.

Working fluid selection and design of small-scale waste heat recovery systems based on organic Rankine cycles

Demand for the use of energy systems, entailing high efficiency as well as availability to harness renewable energy sources, is a key issue in order to tackling the threat of global warming and saving natural resources. Organic Rankine cycle (ORC) technology has been identified as one of the most promising technologies in recovering low-grade heat sources and in harnessing renewable energy sources that cannot be efficiently utilized by means of more conventional power systems. The ORC is based on the working principle of Rankine process, but an organic working fluid is adopted in the cycle instead of steam. This thesis presents numerical and experimental results of the study on the design of small-scale ORCs. Two main applications were selected for the thesis: waste heat re- covery from small-scale diesel engines concentrating on the utilization of the exhaust gas heat and waste heat recovery in large industrial-scale engine power plants considering the utilization of both the high and low temperature heat sources. The main objective of this work was to identify suitable working fluid candidates and to study the process and turbine design methods that can be applied when power plants based on the use of non-conventional working fluids are considered. The computational work included the use of thermodynamic analysis methods and turbine design methods that were based on the use of highly accurate fluid properties. In addition, the design and loss mechanisms in supersonic ORC turbines were studied by means of computational fluid dynamics. The results indicated that the design of ORC is highly influenced by the selection of the working fluid and cycle operational conditions. The results for the turbine designs in- dicated that the working fluid selection should not be based only on the thermodynamic analysis, but requires also considerations on the turbine design. The turbines tend to be fast rotating, entailing small blade heights at the turbine rotor inlet and highly supersonic flow in the turbine flow passages, especially when power systems with low power outputs are designed. The results indicated that the ORC is a potential solution in utilizing waste heat streams both at high and low temperatures and both in micro and larger scale appli- cations.

The Arctic Ocean between Greenland and Nova Zemla and between the 60th and 82d parallel of latitude from Swedish, Danish, British, Russian and German surveys and explorations up to 1871

Kartta kuuluu A. E. Nordenskiöldin kokoelmaan

Design of a Traction Motor With Tooth-Coil Windings and Embedded Magnets

Traction motor design significantly differs from industrial machine design. The starting point is the load cycle instead of the steady-state rated operation point. The speed of the motor varies from zero to very high speeds. At low speeds, heavy overloading is used for starting, and the field-weakening region also plays an important role. Finding a suitable fieldweakening point is one of the important design targets. At the lowest speeds, a high torque output is desired, and all current reserves of the supplying converter unit are used to achieve the torque. In this paper, a 110-kW 2.5-p.u. starting torque and a maximum 2.5-p.u. speed permanent-magnet traction motor will be studied. The field-weakening point is altered by varying the number of winding turns of machine. One design is selected for prototyping. Theoretical results are verified by measurements.

Review of water electrolysis technologies and design of renewable hydrogen production systems

An electric system based on renewable energy faces challenges concerning the storage and utilization of energy due to the intermittent and seasonal nature of renewable energy sources. Wind and solar photovoltaic power productions are variable and difficult to predict, and thus electricity storage will be needed in the case of basic power production. Hydrogen’s energetic potential lies in its ability and versatility to store chemical energy, to serve as an energy carrier and as feedstock for various industries. Hydrogen is also used e.g. in the production of biofuels. The amount of energy produced during hydrogen combustion is higher than any other fuel’s on a mass basis with a higher-heating-value of 39.4 kWh/kg. However, even though hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, on Earth most hydrogen exists in molecular forms such as water. Therefore, hydrogen must be produced and there are various methods to do so. Today, the majority hydrogen comes from fossil fuels, mainly from steam methane reforming, and only about 4 % of global hydrogen comes from water electrolysis. Combination of electrolytic production of hydrogen from water and supply of renewable energy is attracting more interest due to the sustainability and the increased flexibility of the resulting energy system. The preferred option for intermittent hydrogen storage is pressurization in tanks since at ambient conditions the volumetric energy density of hydrogen is low, and pressurized tanks are efficient and affordable when the cycling rate is high. Pressurized hydrogen enables energy storage in larger capacities compared to battery technologies and additionally the energy can be stored for longer periods of time, on a time scale of months. In this thesis, the thermodynamics and electrochemistry associated with water electrolysis are described. The main water electrolysis technologies are presented with state-of-the-art specifications. Finally, a Power-to-Hydrogen infrastructure design for Lappeenranta University of Technology is presented. Laboratory setup for water electrolysis is specified and factors affecting its commissioning in Finland are presented.

Analysing the power consumption behaviour of Ethernet switch using Design of Experiment

At present, one of the main concerns of green network is to minimize the power consumption of network infrastructure. Surveys show that, the highest amount of power is consumed by the network devices during its runtime. However to control this power consumption it is important to know which factors has highest impact on this matter. This paper is focused on the measurement and modeling the power consumption of an Ethernet switch during its runtime considering various types of input parameters with all possible combinations. For the experiment, three input parameters are chosen. They are bandwidth, link load and number of connections. The output to be measured is the power consumption of the Ethernet switch. Due to the uncertain power consuming pattern of the Ethernet switch a fully-comprehensive experimental evaluation would require an unfeasible and cumbersome experimental phase. Because of that, design of experiment (DoE) method has been applied to obtain adequate information on the effects of each input parameters on the power consumption. The whole work consists of three parts. In the first part a test bed is planned with input parameters and the power consumption of the switch is measured. The second part is about generating a mathematical model with the help of design of experiment tools. This model can be used for measuring precise power consumption in different scenario and also pinpoint the parameters with higher influence in power consumption. And in the last part, the mathematical model is evaluated by comparing with the experimental values.

Electromagnetic and thermal design of a multilevel converter with high power density and reliability

Electric energy demand has been growing constantly as the global population increases. To avoid electric energy shortage, renewable energy sources and energy conservation are emphasized all over the world. The role of power electronics in energy saving and development of renewable energy systems is significant. Power electronics is applied in wind, solar, fuel cell, and micro turbine energy systems for the energy conversion and control. The use of power electronics introduces an energy saving potential in such applications as motors, lighting, home appliances, and consumer electronics. Despite the advantages of power converters, their penetration into the market requires that they have a set of characteristics such as high reliability and power density, cost effectiveness, and low weight, which are dictated by the emerging applications. In association with the increasing requirements, the design of the power converter is becoming more complicated, and thus, a multidisciplinary approach to the modelling of the converter is required. In this doctoral dissertation, methods and models are developed for the design of a multilevel power converter and the analysis of the related electromagnetic, thermal, and reliability issues. The focus is on the design of the main circuit. The electromagnetic model of the laminated busbar system and the IGBT modules is established with the aim of minimizing the stray inductance of the commutation loops that degrade the converter power capability. The circular busbar system is proposed to achieve equal current sharing among parallel-connected devices and implemented in the non-destructive test set-up. In addition to the electromagnetic model, a thermal model of the laminated busbar system is developed based on a lumped parameter thermal model. The temperature and temperature-dependent power losses of the busbars are estimated by the proposed algorithm. The Joule losses produced by non-sinusoidal currents flowing through the busbars in the converter are estimated taking into account the skin and proximity effects, which have a strong influence on the AC resistance of the busbars. The lifetime estimation algorithm was implemented to investigate the influence of the cooling solution on the reliability of the IGBT modules. As efficient cooling solutions have a low thermal inertia, they cause excessive temperature cycling of the IGBTs. Thus, a reliability analysis is required when selecting the cooling solutions for a particular application. The control of the cooling solution based on the use of a heat flux sensor is proposed to reduce the amplitude of the temperature cycles. The developed methods and models are verified experimentally by a laboratory prototype.

Design of traction transmission and suspension systems for an omni-directional mobile robot

This project aims to design and manufacture a mobile robot with two Universal Robot UR10 mainly used indoors. In order to obtain omni-directional maneuverability, the mobile robot is constructed with Mecanum wheels. The Mecanum wheel can move in any direction with a series of rollers attached to itself. These rollers are angled at 45º about the hub’s circumference. This type of wheels can be used in both driving and steering with their any-direction property. This paper is focused on the design of traction system and suspension system, and the velocity control of Mecanum wheels in the close-loop control system. The mechanical design includes selection of bearing housing, couplers which are act as connection between shafts, motor parts, and other needed components. The 3D design software SolidWorks is utilized to assemble all the components in order to get correct tolerance. The driving shaft is designed based on assembled structure via the software as well. The design of suspension system is to compensate the assembly error of Mecanum wheels to guarantee the stability of the robot. The control system of motor drivers is realized through the Robot Operating System (ROS) on Ubuntu Linux. The purpose of inverse kinematics is to obtain the relationship among the movements of all Mecanum wheels. Via programming and interacting with the computer, the robot could move with required speed and direction.

University students’ regulation of learning and text processing – examples from medical and teacher education

The general aim of the thesis was to study university students’ learning from the perspective of regulation of learning and text processing. The data were collected from the two academic disciplines of medical and teacher education, which share the features of highly scheduled study, a multidisciplinary character, a complex relationship between theory and practice and a professional nature. Contemporary information society poses new challenges for learning, as it is not possible to learn all the information needed in a profession during a study programme. Therefore, it is increasingly important to learn how to think and learn independently, how to recognise gaps in and update one’s knowledge and how to deal with the huge amount of constantly changing information. In other words, it is critical to regulate one’s learning and to process text effectively. The thesis comprises five sub-studies that employed cross-sectional, longitudinal and experimental designs and multiple methods, from surveys to eye tracking. Study I examined the connections between students’ study orientations and the ways they regulate their learning. In total, 410 second-, fourth- and sixth-year medical students from two Finnish medical schools participated in the study by completing a questionnaire measuring both general study orientations and regulation strategies. The students were generally deeply oriented towards their studies. However, they regulated their studying externally. Several interesting and theoretically reasonable connections between the variables were found. For instance, self-regulation was positively correlated with deep orientation and achievement orientation and was negatively correlated with non-commitment. However, external regulation was likewise positively correlated with deep orientation and achievement orientation but also with surface orientation and systematic orientation. It is argued that external regulation might function as an effective coping strategy in the cognitively loaded medical curriculum. Study II focused on medical students’ regulation of learning and their conceptions of the learning environment in an innovative medical course where traditional lectures were combined wth problem-based learning (PBL) group work. First-year medical and dental students (N = 153) completed a questionnaire assessing their regulation strategies of learning and views about the PBL group work. The results indicated that external regulation and self-regulation of the learning content were the most typical regulation strategies among the participants. In line with previous studies, self-regulation wasconnected with study success. Strictly organised PBL sessions were not considered as useful as lectures, although the students’ views of the teacher/tutor and the group were mainly positive. Therefore, developers of teaching methods are challenged to think of new solutions that facilitate reflection of one’s learning and that improve the development of self-regulation. In Study III, a person-centred approach to studying regulation strategies was employed, in contrast to the traditional variable-centred approach used in Study I and Study II. The aim of Study III was to identify different regulation strategy profiles among medical students (N = 162) across time and to examine to what extent these profiles predict study success in preclinical studies. Four regulation strategy profiles were identified, and connections with study success were found. Students with the lowest self-regulation and with an increasing lack of regulation performed worse than the other groups. As the person-centred approach enables us to individualise students with diverse regulation patterns, it could be used in supporting student learning and in facilitating the early diagnosis of learning difficulties. In Study IV, 91 student teachers participated in a pre-test/post-test design where they answered open-ended questions about a complex science concept both before and after reading either a traditional, expository science text or a refutational text that prompted the reader to change his/her beliefs according to scientific beliefs about the phenomenon. The student teachers completed a questionnaire concerning their regulation and processing strategies. The results showed that the students’ understanding improved after text reading intervention and that refutational text promoted understanding better than the traditional text. Additionally, regulation and processing strategies were found to be connected with understanding the science phenomenon. A weak trend showed that weaker learners would benefit more from the refutational text. It seems that learners with effective learning strategies are able to pick out the relevant content regardless of the text type, whereas weaker learners might benefit from refutational parts that contrast the most typical misconceptions with scientific views. The purpose of Study V was to use eye tracking to determine how third-year medical studets (n = 39) and internal medicine residents (n = 13) read and solve patient case texts. The results revealed differences between medical students and residents in processing patient case texts; compared to the students, the residents were more accurate in their diagnoses and processed the texts significantly faster and with a lower number of fixations. Different reading patterns were also found. The observed differences between medical students and residents in processing patient case texts could be used in medical education to model expert reasoning and to teach how a good medical text should be constructed. The main findings of the thesis indicate that even among very selected student populations, such as high-achieving medical students or student teachers, there seems to be a lot of variation in regulation strategies of learning and text processing. As these learning strategies are related to successful studying, students enter educational programmes with rather different chances of managing and achieving success. Further, the ways of engaging in learning seldom centre on a single strategy or approach; rather, students seem to combine several strategies to a certain degree. Sometimes, it can be a matter of perspective of which way of learning can be considered best; therefore, the reality of studying in higher education is often more complicated than the simplistic view of self-regulation as a good quality and external regulation as a harmful quality. The beginning of university studies may be stressful for many, as the gap between high school and university studies is huge and those strategies that were adequate during high school might not work as well in higher education. Therefore, it is important to map students’ learning strategies and to encourage them to engage in using high-quality learning strategies from the beginning. Instead of separate courses on learning skills, the integration of these skills into course contents should be considered. Furthermore, learning complex scientific phenomena could be facilitated by paying attention to high-quality learning materials and texts and other support from the learning environment also in the university. Eye tracking seems to have great potential in evaluating performance and growing diagnostic expertise in text processing, although more research using texts as stimulus is needed. Both medical and teacher education programmes and the professions themselves are challenging in terms of their multidisciplinary nature and increasing amounts of information and therefore require good lifelong learning skills during the study period and later in work life.