26 resultados para C53 - Forecasting and Other Model Applications


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Bullying can be viewed as goal-oriented behavior in the strive for dominance and prestige in the peer group (Salmivalli, 2010). To ensure the effectiveness of their power demonstrations, bullies often choose targets from among their vulnerable peers (Salmivalli, 2010; Veenstra et al., 2007). A large number of studies have also shown that victimization has severe consequences for the victims’ psychosocial adjustment (Reijntjes, Kamphuis, Prinzie, & Telch, 2010; Ttofi, Farrington, Lösel, & Loeber, 2011). In this thesis I investigate – based on three empirical studies – whether similar dynamics on the risk factors and consequences apply to same- and other-sex victimization. In the empirical studies, we used the data from the randomized control trial of the KiVa antibullying program for the elementary school grades 4–6 (2007–2008), and for the middle school grades 7–9 (2008–2009). We measured same- and other-sex victimization, and victims’ defending relationships by dyadic questions: “By which classmates are you victimized?” and “By which classmates are you supported, comforted, or defended?” In addition, we used self-reports and peer reports to measure adjustment and social status. The findings imply that other-sex victimization may be challenging for antibullying work. First, although targets of bullying seemed to be selected from among vulnerable peers for the most part, perceived popularity increased the risks of other-sex victimization. Popularity of these victims may falsely lead to an impression that the victims are doing well. Second, the consequences considering victims’ later psychosocial adjustment were alarming concerning girls bullied by boys. Thus, despite the fact that the targets may be perceived as popular, other-sex victimization can have even more severe consequences than same-sex victimization. Third, we found that defending relationships were mostly same-sex relationships, and consequently, we may ask whether defending is effective against other-sex bullies. Finally, the KiVa antibullying program was less effective against other-sex victimization in the adolescent sample. The findings altogether emphasize the importance of taking into account the sex composition of the bully-victim dyad, both considering future research on bullying and in the antibullying work with children and adolescents.

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This doctoral thesis was published in printed form in 1987. It was digitized from paper copy in 2013. Unfortunately on some pages the digitizaion process has not been complete, i.e there are some minor typographic erros on some pages.

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Kristiina Hormia-Poutasen esitys KOBV-konferenssissa Berliinissä, Saksassa kesäkuussa 2013.

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State-of-the-art predictions of atmospheric states rely on large-scale numerical models of chaotic systems. This dissertation studies numerical methods for state and parameter estimation in such systems. The motivation comes from weather and climate models and a methodological perspective is adopted. The dissertation comprises three sections: state estimation, parameter estimation and chemical data assimilation with real atmospheric satellite data. In the state estimation part of this dissertation, a new filtering technique based on a combination of ensemble and variational Kalman filtering approaches, is presented, experimented and discussed. This new filter is developed for large-scale Kalman filtering applications. In the parameter estimation part, three different techniques for parameter estimation in chaotic systems are considered. The methods are studied using the parameterized Lorenz 95 system, which is a benchmark model for data assimilation. In addition, a dilemma related to the uniqueness of weather and climate model closure parameters is discussed. In the data-oriented part of this dissertation, data from the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) satellite instrument are considered and an alternative algorithm to retrieve atmospheric parameters from the measurements is presented. The validation study presents first global comparisons between two unique satellite-borne datasets of vertical profiles of nitrogen trioxide (NO3), retrieved using GOMOS and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) satellite instruments. The GOMOS NO3 observations are also considered in a chemical state estimation study in order to retrieve stratospheric temperature profiles. The main result of this dissertation is the consideration of likelihood calculations via Kalman filtering outputs. The concept has previously been used together with stochastic differential equations and in time series analysis. In this work, the concept is applied to chaotic dynamical systems and used together with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for statistical analysis. In particular, this methodology is advocated for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate model applications. In addition, the concept is shown to be useful in estimating the filter-specific parameters related, e.g., to model error covariance matrix parameters.

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An energy model of a belt conveyor was designed. Operation of a belt conveyor was researched. Operational indexes were calculated. Energy optimization process and recommendations were presented.

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This thesis focuses on flavonoids, a subgroup of phenolic compounds produced by plants, and how they affect the herbivorous larvae of lepidopterans and sawflies. The first part of the literature review examines different techniques to analyze the chemical structures of flavonoids and their concentrations in biological samples. These techniques include, for example, ultraviolet-visible spectroscopy, mass spectrometry, and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. The second part of the literature review studies how phenolic compounds function in the metabolism of larvae. The harmful oxidation reactions of phenolic compounds in insect guts are also emphasized. In addition to the negative effects, many insect species have evolved the use of phenolic compounds for their own benefit. In the experimental part of the thesis, high concentrations of complex flavonoid oligoglycosides were found in the hemolymph (the circulatory fluid of insects) of birch and pine sawflies. The larvae produced these compounds from simple flavonoid precursors present in the birch leaves and pine needles. Flavonoid glycosides were also found in the cocoon walls of sawflies, which suggested that flavonoids were used in the construction of cocoons. The second part of the experimental work studied the modifications of phenolic compounds in conditions that mimicked the alkaline guts of lepidopteran larvae. It was found that the 24 plant species studied and their individual phenolic compounds had variable capacities to function as oxidative defenses in alkaline conditions. The excrements of lepidopteran and sawfly species were studied to see how different types of phenolics were processed by the larvae. These results suggested that phenolic compounds were oxidized, hydrolyzed, or modified in other ways during their passage through the digestive tract of the larvae.

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Rare-earth based upconverting nanoparticles (UCNPs) have attracted much attention due to their unique luminescent properties. The ability to convert multiple photons of lower energy to ones with higher energy through an upconversion (UC) process offers a wide range of applications for UCNPs. The emission intensities and wavelengths of UCNPs are important performance characteristics, which determine the appropriate applications. However, insufficient intensities still limit the use of UCNPs; especially the efficient emission of blue and ultraviolet (UV) light via upconversion remains challenging, as these events require three or more near-infrared (NIR) photons. The aim of the study was to enhance the blue and UV upconversion emission intensities of Tm3+ doped NaYF4 nanoparticles and to demonstrate their utility in in vitro diagnostics. As the distance between the sensitizer and the activator significantly affect the energy transfer efficiency, different strategies were explored to change the local symmetry around the doped lanthanides. One important strategy is the intentional co-doping of active (participate in energy transfer) or passive (do not participate in energy transfer) impurities into the host matrix. The roles of doped passive impurities (K+ and Sc3+) in enhancing the blue and UV upconversions, as well as in influencing the intense UV upconversion emission through excess sensitization (active impurity) were studied. Additionally, the effects of both active and passive impurity doping on the morphological and optical performance of UCNPs were investigated. The applicability of UV emitting UCNPs as an internal light source for glucose sensing in a dry chemistry test strip was demonstrated. The measurements were in agreement with the traditional method based on reflectance measurements using an external UV light source. The use of UCNPs in the glucose test strip offers an alternative detection method with advantages such as control signals for minimizing errors and high penetration of the NIR excitation through the blood sample, which gives more freedom for designing the optical setup. In bioimaging, the excitation of the UCNPs in the transparent IR region of the tissue permits measurements, which are free of background fluorescence and have a high signal-to-background ratio. In addition, the narrow emission bandwidth of the UCNPs enables multiplexed detections. An array-in-well immunoassay was developed using two different UC emission colours. The differentiation between different viral infections and the classification of antibody responses were achieved based on both the position and colour of the signal. The study demonstrates the potential of spectral and spatial multiplexing in the imaging based array-in-well assays.

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Active magnetic bearing is a type of bearing which uses magnetic field to levitate the rotor. These bearings require continuous control of the currents in electromagnets and data from position of the rotor and the measured current from electromagnets. Because of this different identification methods can be implemented with no additional hardware. In this thesis the focus was to implement and test identification methods for active magnetic bearing system and to update the rotor model. Magnetic center calibration is a method used to locate the magnetic center of the rotor. Rotor model identification is an identification method used to identify the rotor model. Rotor model update is a method used to update the rotor model based on identification data. These methods were implemented and tested with a real machine where rotor was levitated with active magnetic bearings and the functionality of the methods was ensured. Methods were developed with further extension in mind and also with the possibility to apply them for different machines with ease.

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This thesis reviews the role of nuclear and conventional power plants in the future energy system. The review is done by utilizing freely accesible publications in addition to generating load duration and ramping curves for Nordic energy system. As the aim of the future energy system is to reduce GHG-emissions and avoid further global warming, the need for flexible power generation increases with the increased share of intermittent renewables. The goal of this thesis is to offer extensive understanding of possibilities and restrictions that nuclear power and conventional power plants have regarding flexible and sustainable generation. As a conclusion, nuclear power is the only technology that is able to provide large scale GHG-free power output variations with good ramping values. Most of the currently operating plants are able to take part in load following as the requirement to do so is already required to be included in the plant design. Load duration and ramping curves produced prove that nuclear power is able to cover most of the annual generation variation and ramping needs in the Nordic energy system. From the conventional power generation methods, only biomass combustion can be considered GHG-free because biomass is considered carbon neutral. CFB combusted biomass has good load follow capabilities in good ramping and turndown ratios. All the other conventional power generation technologies generate GHG-emissions and therefore the use of these technologies should be reduced.