IEA Bioenergy Task 40 “Sustainable International Bioenergy Trade: Securing supply and demand” Country report of Finland 2008

This study considered the current situation of biofuels markets in Finland. The fact that industry consumes more than half of the total primary energy, widely applied combined heat and power production and a high share of solid biomass fuels in the total energy consumption are specific to the Finnish energy system. Wood is the most important source of bioenergy in Finland, representing 21% of the total energy consumption in 2006. Almost 80% of the wood-based energy is recovered from industrial by-products and residues. Finland has commitment itself to maintaining its greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level, at the highest, during the period 2008–2012. The energy and climate policy carried out in recent years has been based on the National Energy and Climate introduced in 2005. The Finnish energy policy aims to achieve the target, and a variety of measures are taken to promote the use of renewable energy sources and especially wood fuels. In 2007, the government started to prepare a new long-term (up to the year 2050) climate and energy strategy that will meet EU’s new targets for the reduction of green house gas emissions and the promotion of renewable energy sources. The new strategy will be introduced during 2008. The international biofuels trade has a substantial importance for the utilisation of bioenergy in Finland. In 2006, the total international trading of solid and liquid biofuels was approximately 64 PJ of which import was 61 PJ. Most of the import is indirect and takes place within the forest industry’s raw wood imports. In 2006, as much as 24% of wood energy was based on foreignorigin wood. Wood pellets and tall oil form the majority of export streams of biofuels. The indirect import of wood fuels increased almost 10% in 2004–2006, while the direct trade of solid and liquid biofuels has been almost constant.

A new climatic periodisation of the Gold and Guinea Coasts in West Africa, 1750-1798 : a reconstruction of the climate during the slave trade era, including an analysis of the climatically facilitated Trans-Atlantic slave trade

Avsikten med studien är att producera den första rekonstruktionen av det västafrikanska klimatet mellan 1750 och 1798. Kunskapen om det västafrikanska klimatet före 1800-talet är till dags dato bristfällig, vilket gör det svårare att förstå framtida klimatvariationer. Det är bristen på instrumentell meteorologisk data (temperatur, regnmängd, och lufttryck), vilket i princip bara täcker det senaste århundradet, som är orsaken till att tidigare klimat är bristfälligt kartlagda. Klimatet och miljön är även sådana att proxydata från ’naturens arkiv’ (såsom t.ex. trädringar) har begränsad användning. Således är historiska dokument, främst från gästande kulturer/nationer/intressenter, innehållande deskriptiv information om vädret och klimatet, klimatforskarens viktigaste källa. Genom att använda tidigare, för det här syftet, oanvända källor påvisade den här undersökningen att klimatet i västra Afrika och Guldkusten (Ghana) har ändrats sedan 1700-talet. Monsunregnen var svagare och kortvarigare, speciellt den sekundära regnperioden under hösten var betydligt svagare än idag. Det förekom kraftiga årliga variationer i monsunregnen, men sett ur längre tidsperspektiv utmärktes torrare och blötare perioder. Studien kunde också visa en viss korrelation mellan det globala väderfenomenet El Niño och regnperiodens intensitet längs med kusten. Flera torrperioder sammanföll med tidigare registrerade El Niño sekvenser. Speciellt slutet av 1760-talet påverkades kraftigt av El Niño och även det globala klimatet verkar ha genomgått graftiga förändringar just dessa år. På basis av den nya klimatrekonstruktionen genomfördes också en jämförelse av klimatets inverkan på den transatlantiska slavhandeln från 1750 till 1798, en fråga som historikerna gjort anspelningar på i över 30 år. Utförseln av slavar från västra Afrika var som kraftigast under 1700-talets andra hälft. Analysen visade att slavhandeln delvis tilltog i samband med klimatanomalierna.

Risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation

A trade-off between return and risk plays a central role in financial economics. The intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) proposed by Merton (1973) provides a neoclassical theory for expected returns on risky assets. The model assumes that risk-averse investors (seeking to maximize their expected utility of lifetime consumption) demand compensation for bearing systematic market risk and the risk of unfavorable shifts in the investment opportunity set. Although the ICAPM postulates a positive relation between the conditional expected market return and its conditional variance, the empirical evidence on the sign of the risk-return trade-off is conflicting. In contrast, autocorrelation in stock returns is one of the most consistent and robust findings in empirical finance. While autocorrelation is often interpreted as a violation of market efficiency, it can also reflect factors such as market microstructure or time-varying risk premia. This doctoral thesis investigates a relation between the mixed risk-return trade-off results and autocorrelation in stock returns. The results suggest that, in the case of the US stock market, the relative contribution of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in explaining the aggregate return fluctuates with volatility. This effect is then shown to be even more pronounced in the case of emerging stock markets. During high-volatility periods, expected returns can be described using rational (intertemporal) investors acting to maximize their expected utility. During lowvolatility periods, market-wide persistence in returns increases, leading to a failure of traditional equilibrium-model descriptions for expected returns. Consistent with this finding, traditional models yield conflicting evidence concerning the sign of the risk-return trade-off. The changing relevance of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation can be explained by heterogeneous agents or, more generally, by the inadequacy of the neoclassical view on asset pricing with unboundedly rational investors and perfect market efficiency. In the latter case, the empirical results imply that the neoclassical view is valid only under certain market conditions. This offers an economic explanation as to why it has been so difficult to detect a positive tradeoff between the conditional mean and variance of the aggregate stock return. The results highlight the importance, especially in the case of emerging stock markets, of noting both the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in applications that require estimates for expected returns.

Currency Carry Trades – Excess Returns and Performance Optimization of G10 Currency Carry Trade Strategies during the Euro Era

This study examines the excess returns provided by G10 currency carry trading during the Euro era. The currency carry trade has been a popular trade throughout the past decades offering excess returns to investors. The thesis aims to contribute to existing research on the topic by utilizing a new set of data for the Euro era as well as using the Euro as a basis for the study. The focus of the thesis is specifically on different carry trade strategies’ performance, risk and diversification benefits. The study finds proof of the failure of the uncovered interest rate parity theory through multiple regression analyses. Furthermore, the research finds evidence of significant diversification benefits in terms of Sharpe ratio and improved return distributions. The results suggest that currency carry trades have offered excess returns during 1999-2014 and that volatility plays an important role in carry trade returns. The risk, however, is diversifiable and therefore our results support previous quantitative research findings on the topic.

Explaining the Shifts of International Trade in Pulp and Paper Industry

The pulp and paper industry is currently facing broad structural changes due to global shifts in demand and supply. These changes have significant impacts on national economies worldwide. In this paper, we describe the recent trends in the pulp and recovered paper (RP) production, and estimate augmented gravity models of bilateral trade for chemical pulp and RP exports with panel data. According to our results, there is some variation in the effects of the traditional gravity-model variables between pulp grades and RP. The results imply also that, in comparison to export supply, import demand plays a larger role in determining the volume of exports. Finally, it is evident that Asia, particularly China, is the most important driver of chemical pulp and RP trade: China is hungry for fiber, and must import to satisfy its growing needs. Moreover, the speed of China’s growth in chemical pulp and RP imports has been driving the increased significance of planted forests in the exports of hardwood pulp (BHKP) as well.

Issues in the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: A critical discourse analysis

Negotiating trade agreements is an important part of government trade policies, economic planning and part of the globally operating trading system of today. European Union and the United States have been active in the formation of trade agreements in global comparison. Now these two economic giants are engaged in negotiations to form their own trade agreement, the so called Transnational Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). The purpose of this thesis is to understand the reasons for making a trade agreement between two economic areas and understanding the issues it may include in the case of the TTIP. The TTIP has received a great deal of attention in the media. The opinions towards the partnership have been extreme, and the debate has been heated. The purpose of this study is to introduce the nature of the public discussion regarding the TTIP from Spring 2013 until 2014. The research problem is to find out what are the main issues in the agreement and what are the values influencing them. The study was conducted applying methods of critical discourse analysis to the chosen data. This includes gathering the issues from the data based on the attention each has received in the discussion. The underlying motives for raising different issues were analysed by investigating the authors’ position in the political, economic and social circuits. The perceived economic impacts of the TTIP are also under analysis with the same criteria. Some of the most respected economic newspapers globally were included in the research material as well as papers or reports published by the EU and global organisations. The analysis indicates a clear dichotomy of the attitudes towards the TTIP. Key problems include lack of transparency in the negotiations, the misunderstood investor-state dispute settlement, the constantly expanding regulatory issues and the risk of protectionism. The theory and data does suggest that the removal of tariffs is an effective tool for reaching economic gains in the TTIP and even more effective would be the reducing of non-tariff barriers, such as protectionism. Critics are worried over the rising influence of corporations over governments. The discourse analysis reveals that the supporters of the TTIP have values related to increasing welfare through economic growth. Critics do not deny the economic benefits but raise the question of inequality as a consequence. Overall they represent softer values such as sustainable development and democracy as a counter-attack to the corporate values of efficiency and the maximising of profits.

Inclusion or Exclusion? Trade union strategies and Labor migration

Inclusion or Exclusion? Trade Union Strategies and Labor Migration This research identified and analyzed immigration-related strategies of the Finnish Construction Trade Union (FCTU) and the Service Union United (SUU); e.g. how the unions react to labor immigration, whether unions seek to include migrants in the unions, and what is migrants’ position in the unions. The two unions were chosen as the focus of the research because the workforce in the sectors they represent is migrant-dense. The study also analyzed the experiences that migrants who work in these sectors have with trade unions. The Estonian labor market situation –including the role of Estonian trade unions– was also examined as it has a considerable impact on the operating environment of the FCTU. The results of the study indicate that immigration is a contradictory issue for both unions. On the one hand, they strive to include migrants as trade union members and to defend migrants’ labor rights. On the other hand, they, together with their umbrella organization the Central Organisation of Finnish Trade Unions (SAK), seek to prevent labor immigration from outside the EU and EEA countries. They actively defend current labor immigration restrictions by drawing atten- tion to high unemployment figures and to the breaches of working conditions migrants encounter. In contrast, the employer organizations promote a more liberal state policy on labor immigration because they see it as a boost for business. Both the unions and the employer organizations ground their arguments on national interest. However, the position of the trade union movement is not uniform: unions belonging to the Confederation of Unions for Professionals and Managerial Staff in Finland (Akava) embrace more liberal labor immigration stances than the SAK. A key trade union strategy is to try to guarantee that migrants’ working condi- tions do not differ from those of the natives. The FCTU and the SUU inform migrants about Finnish collective agreements and trade union membership in the most common migrant languages. This is important for the unions because it is not in their interest that migrants’ working conditions are undercut. The interviewed migrants said that natives had more negotiating power with employers, which is often negatively portrayed in migrants’ working conditions. Migrants perceive that trade unions have an important role in protecting their working conditions. However, they stressed that migrants’ knowledge of unions is often very limited. The number of migrants in both two unions studied here is increasing. Espe- cially in the SUU, a considerable proportion of the new members are migrants. The FCTU is in a more challenging situation than the SUU because migrant construc- tion workers often work only for short periods in Finland and are consequently not interested in becoming union members. The unions’ strategies partly differ: the FCTU was the first Finnish trade union to establish a trade union branch/lo- cal for migrant members. The goal is to facilitate migrants’ inclusion in the union and to highlight the specific problems they face. The SUU, for its part, insists that such a special strategy would exclude migrants within the union organization. Despite the unions’ strategies, migrants are still underrepresented as union members and officials, which some of the interviewed migrants saw as a problem. Immigrants’ perception of trade unions was pragmatic: they had joined unions when membership yielded concrete benefits. In spite of the unions’ strategies, migrants –and temporary migrants– encoun- ter specific problems in terms of working conditions. Both unions demand more state intervention to protect migrants’ labor rights because overseeing working conditions consumes union resources. However, without the unions’ intervention, these problems would be more common than is currently the case. For instance, some of the interviewed migrants had received trade union assistance in claim- ing unpaid wages. The study demonstrated with the help of building on Walter Korpi’s power resources theory, that immigration is a power resource issue for the unions: suc- cessful immigration-related strategies strengthen unions –and vice versa. The research also showed how the unions’ operating environments constrain and enable their immigration-related strategies. This study has illuminated a previously ignored dimension: the immigrant- inclusive strategies of the Finnish trade unions. The research material consists of 78 qualitative interviews, observation in trade union events, and trade unions’ and employer organizations’ public state- ments.

Commerce in disguise : war and trade in the Caribbean free port of Gustavia, 1793–1815

ISBN 978-951-765-806-5Avhandlingen studerar frihamnen Gustavia på ön S:t Barthélemy, den svenska kolonin i Västindien, under de franska revolutionskrigen 1793-1815. Syftet är att kartlägga den ekonomiska aktiviteten genom Gustavia genom ett outforskat källmaterial och analysera hamnens roll i Västindien och i den atlantiska ekonomin under krigsåren. Det viktigaste resultatet av undersökningen är att den påvisar den kortvariga men exceptionella position som Gustavia fick under krigen, vilket ledde till att stora varuflöden gick genom den svenska kolonin och att sjöfart under svensk flagg i regionen tilltog. Krigskonjunkturen hämtade till ön ett stort antal nya invånare, framförallt från angränsande karibiska kolonier men också från USA och Europa. Frihamnen och ön fungerade kort under några decennier som en global marknadsplats i Västindien för handelsmän som kringgick blockader och handelsförbud. Vidare närmar sig även avhandlingen frågor om Sveriges engagemang i slavhandeln på ett systematiskt sätt, och demonstrerar att den svenska slavhandeln var mer omfattande än den tidigare forskningen visat, speciellt efter att rörelsen för slavhandelns förbud fått ett starkt fäste i Storbritannien. De tidigare stora internationella undersökningarna om slavhandeln har ofta missat det svenska inslaget. S:t Barthélemy har fått relativt lite uppmärksamhet i den svenska historieforskningen, och har ofta skildrats som ett exotiskt och ganska betydelselöst inslag i Sverige 1800-talshistoria. Mycket av den tidigare forskningen präglas av det nationalhistoriska perspektivet med kolonins länkar till Stockholm i blickfånget. Avhandlingen påvisar att länkarna mellan kolonin och Stockholm var fåtaliga och att dess ekonomiska betydelse för Sverige var ytterst liten. Däremot omvärderar avhandlingen kolonins betydelsefulla roll i ett större internationellt sammanhang. ----------------------------------------------------------- Väitöskirja käsittelee Gustavian vapaasatamaa Ruotsin Länsi-Intian siirtomaassa Saint-Barthélemyn saarella, Ranskan vallankumoussotien aikana 1793–1815. Tarkoitus on ollut kartoittaa Gustavian kautta kulkevaa taloudellista toimintaa tutkimattomien lähteiden avulla ja arvioida sataman asemaa Länsi-Intiassa sekä atlanttisessa taloudessa sotavuosina.Väitöskirjan tärkein tulos osoittaa sataman sotien aikana saavuttamaa lyhytkestoista mutta poikkeuksellista roolia, mikä johti suuren kaupankäynnin saapumiseen ruotsalaissiirtomaahan sekä siihen, että merenkulku ruotsalaisen lipun alla kiihtyi Länsi-Intian alueella. Sotatalouden nousukausi aikaansai pienelle saarelle muuttoliikkeen myötä suuren väestönkasvun, jonka lähteenä olivat pääsääntöisesti lähisaaret, mutta osa uusista asukkaista tuli myös Yhdysvalloista ja Euroopasta. Gustavian vapaasatama toimi muutaman vuosikymmenen ajan globaalina markkinapaikkana Länsi-Intian kauppamiehille, joilla oli tarve kiertää kauppasaartoja ja -kieltoja. Lisäksi väitöskirja lähestyy kysymystä Ruotsin osallistumisesta orjankauppaan ja osoittaa että ruotsalainen orjakauppa oli laajempaa kuin aiempi tutkimus on väittänyt, etenkin sen jälkeen kun kansanliike orjakauppaa vastaan oli saavuttanut vahvan tuen Iso-Britanniassa. Aiemmat laajat kansainväliset kartoitukset orjakaupasta ovat usein ohittaneet ruotsalaisten osallisuutta tässä yhteydessä. Saint-Barthélemy on aiemmin saanut suhteellisen vähän huomiota ruotsalaisessa historiankirjoituksessa, ja sitä on usein hahmoteltu eksoottisena ja melko merkityksettömänä osana Ruotsin 1800-luvun historiaa. Aiempaa tutkimusta on paljolti leimannut kansallinen historiankirjoitus, jonka keskeisenä kiinnostuksena ovat olleet saaren yhteydet Tukholmaan. Väitöskirja osoittaa kuitenkin että nämä yhteydet olivat heikkoja ja että siirtomaan taloudellinen merkitys Ruotsille oli hyvinkin pieni. Toisaalta väitöskirja arvioi siirtomaan todellista ja tärkeää roolia uudelleen sijoittamalla sen isompaan kansainväliseen asiayhteyteen.