Improving demand forecasting practices in the industrial context

Demand forecasting is one of the fundamental managerial tasks. Most companies do not know their future demands, so they have to make plans based on demand forecasts. The literature offers many methods and approaches for producing forecasts. When selecting the forecasting approach, companies need to estimate the benefits provided by particular methods, as well as the resources that applying the methods call for. Former literature points out that even though many forecasting methods are available, selecting a suitable approach and implementing and managing it is a complex cross-functional matter. However, research that focuses on the managerial side of forecasting is relatively rare. This thesis explores the managerial problems that are involved when demand forecasting methods are applied in a context where a company produces products for other manufacturing companies. Industrial companies have some characteristics that differ from consumer companies, e.g. typically a lower number of customers and closer relationships with customers than in consumer companies. The research questions of this thesis are: 1. What kind of challenges are there in organizing an adequate forecasting process in the industrial context? 2. What kind of tools of analysis can be utilized to support the improvement of the forecasting process? The main methodological approach in this study is design science, where the main objective is to develop tentative solutions to real-life problems. The research data has been collected from two organizations. Managerial problems in organizing demand forecasting can be found in four interlinked areas: 1. defining the operational environment for forecasting, 2. defining the forecasting methods, 3. defining the organizational responsibilities, and 4. defining the forecasting performance measurement process. In all these areas, examples of managerial problems are described, and approaches for mitigating these problems are outlined.

Physical Realization of an Optical Automatic Target Recognition System

In the modern warfare there is an active development of a new trend connected with a robotic warfare. One of the critical elements of robotics warfare systems is an automatic target recognition system, allowing to recognize objects, based on the data received from sensors. This work considers aspects of optical realization of such a system by means of NIR target scanning at fixed wavelengths. An algorithm was designed, an experimental setup was built and samples of various modern gear and apparel materials were tested. For pattern testing the samples of actively arm engaged armies camouflages were chosen. Tests were performed both in clear atmosphere and in the artificial extremely humid and hot atmosphere to simulate field conditions.

Promoting Programming Learning. Engagement, Automatic Assessment with Immediate Feedback in Visualizations

The skill of programming is a key asset for every computer science student. Many studies have shown that this is a hard skill to learn and the outcomes of programming courses have often been substandard. Thus, a range of methods and tools have been developed to assist students’ learning processes. One of the biggest fields in computer science education is the use of visualizations as a learning aid and many visualization based tools have been developed to aid the learning process during last few decades. Studies conducted in this thesis focus on two different visualizationbased tools TRAKLA2 and ViLLE. This thesis includes results from multiple empirical studies about what kind of effects the introduction and usage of these tools have on students’ opinions and performance, and what kind of implications there are from a teacher’s point of view. The results from studies in this thesis show that students preferred to do web-based exercises, and felt that those exercises contributed to their learning. The usage of the tool motivated students to work harder during their course, which was shown in overall course performance and drop-out statistics. We have also shown that visualization-based tools can be used to enhance the learning process, and one of the key factors is the higher and active level of engagement (see. Engagement Taxonomy by Naps et al., 2002). The automatic grading accompanied with immediate feedback helps students to overcome obstacles during the learning process, and to grasp the key element in the learning task. These kinds of tools can help us to cope with the fact that many programming courses are overcrowded with limited teaching resources. These tools allows us to tackle this problem by utilizing automatic assessment in exercises that are most suitable to be done in the web (like tracing and simulation) since its supports students’ independent learning regardless of time and place. In summary, we can use our course’s resources more efficiently to increase the quality of the learning experience of the students and the teaching experience of the teacher, and even increase performance of the students. There are also methodological results from this thesis which contribute to developing insight into the conduct of empirical evaluations of new tools or techniques. When we evaluate a new tool, especially one accompanied with visualization, we need to give a proper introduction to it and to the graphical notation used by tool. The standard procedure should also include capturing the screen with audio to confirm that the participants of the experiment are doing what they are supposed to do. By taken such measures in the study of the learning impact of visualization support for learning, we can avoid drawing false conclusion from our experiments. As computer science educators, we face two important challenges. Firstly, we need to start to deliver the message in our own institution and all over the world about the new – scientifically proven – innovations in teaching like TRAKLA2 and ViLLE. Secondly, we have the relevant experience of conducting teaching related experiment, and thus we can support our colleagues to learn essential know-how of the research based improvement of their teaching. This change can transform academic teaching into publications and by utilizing this approach we can significantly increase the adoption of the new tools and techniques, and overall increase the knowledge of best-practices. In future, we need to combine our forces and tackle these universal and common problems together by creating multi-national and multiinstitutional research projects. We need to create a community and a platform in which we can share these best practices and at the same time conduct multi-national research projects easily.

Eye Fundus Image Analysis for Automatic Detection of Diabetic Retinopathy

Diabetes is a rapidly increasing worldwide problem which is characterised by defective metabolism of glucose that causes long-term dysfunction and failure of various organs. The most common complication of diabetes is diabetic retinopathy (DR), which is one of the primary causes of blindness and visual impairment in adults. The rapid increase of diabetes pushes the limits of the current DR screening capabilities for which the digital imaging of the eye fundus (retinal imaging), and automatic or semi-automatic image analysis algorithms provide a potential solution. In this work, the use of colour in the detection of diabetic retinopathy is statistically studied using a supervised algorithm based on one-class classification and Gaussian mixture model estimation. The presented algorithm distinguishes a certain diabetic lesion type from all other possible objects in eye fundus images by only estimating the probability density function of that certain lesion type. For the training and ground truth estimation, the algorithm combines manual annotations of several experts for which the best practices were experimentally selected. By assessing the algorithm’s performance while conducting experiments with the colour space selection, both illuminance and colour correction, and background class information, the use of colour in the detection of diabetic retinopathy was quantitatively evaluated. Another contribution of this work is the benchmarking framework for eye fundus image analysis algorithms needed for the development of the automatic DR detection algorithms. The benchmarking framework provides guidelines on how to construct a benchmarking database that comprises true patient images, ground truth, and an evaluation protocol. The evaluation is based on the standard receiver operating characteristics analysis and it follows the medical practice in the decision making providing protocols for image- and pixel-based evaluations. During the work, two public medical image databases with ground truth were published: DIARETDB0 and DIARETDB1. The framework, DR databases and the final algorithm, are made public in the web to set the baseline results for automatic detection of diabetic retinopathy. Although deviating from the general context of the thesis, a simple and effective optic disc localisation method is presented. The optic disc localisation is discussed, since normal eye fundus structures are fundamental in the characterisation of DR.

Utilization of Automatic Meter Reading in the Improvement of a District Heating System

A district heating system comprises production facilities, a distribution network, and heat consumers. The utilization of new energy metering and reading system (AMR) is increasing constantly in district heating systems. This heuristic study shows how the AMR system can be exploited in finding optimization opportunities in district heating system. In this study, the district heating system is mainly considered from the viewpoint of operational optimization. The focus is on the core processes, heat production and distribution. Three objectives were set to this study. The first one was to examine general optimization opportunities in district heating systems. Second, to figure out the benefits of AMR for general optimization opportunities. Finally, to define a methodology for process improvement endeavors. This study shows, through a case study, the usefulness of AMR in specifying current deficiencies in a district heating system. Based on a literature review, the methodology for the improvement of business processes is presented. Additionally, some issues related to future competitiveness of district heating are concerned. As a conclusion, some optimization objectives are considered more desirable than others. Study shows that AMR is useful in the specification of optimization targets in the district heating system. Further steps in optimization process were not examined in detail. That would seem to be interesting topic for further studies.

Automatic system identification and optimization of centrifugal pump operation

Centrifugal pumps are a notable end-consumer of electrical energy. Typical application of a centrifugal pump is the filling or emptying of a reservoir tank, where the pump is often operated at a constant speed until the process is completed. Installing a frequency converter to control the motor substitutes the traditional fixed-speed pumping system, allows the optimization of rotational speed profile for the pumping tasks and enables the estimation of rotational speed and shaft torque of an induction motor without any additional measurements from the motor shaft. Utilization of variable-speed operation provides the possibility to decrease the overall energy consumption of the pumping task. The static head of the pumping process may change during the pumping task. In such systems, the minimum rotational speed changes during reservoir filling or emptying, and the minimum energy consumption can’t be achieved with a fixed rotational speed. This thesis presents embedded algorithms to automatically identify, optimize and monitor pumping processes between supply and destination reservoirs, and evaluates the changing static head –based optimization method.

AMB system for high-speed motors using automatic commissioning

The general trend towards increasing e ciency and energy density drives the industry to high-speed technologies. Active Magnetic Bearings (AMBs) are one of the technologies that allow contactless support of a rotating body. Theoretically, there are no limitations on the rotational speed. The absence of friction, low maintenance cost, micrometer precision, and programmable sti ness have made AMBs a viable choice for highdemanding applications. Along with the advances in power electronics, such as signi cantly improved reliability and cost, AMB systems have gained a wide adoption in the industry. The AMB system is a complex, open-loop unstable system with multiple inputs and outputs. For normal operation, such a system requires a feedback control. To meet the high demands for performance and robustness, model-based control techniques should be applied. These techniques require an accurate plant model description and uncertainty estimations. The advanced control methods require more e ort at the commissioning stage. In this work, a methodology is developed for an automatic commissioning of a subcritical, rigid gas blower machine. The commissioning process includes open-loop tuning of separate parts such as sensors and actuators. The next step is to apply a system identi cation procedure to obtain a model for the controller synthesis. Finally, a robust model-based controller is synthesized and experimentally evaluated in the full operating range of the system. The commissioning procedure is developed by applying only the system components available and a priori knowledge without any additional hardware. Thus, the work provides an intelligent system with a self-diagnostics feature and an automatic commissioning.

Ride Comfort of Automatic Elevator Doors

Ride comfort of elevators is one of the quality criteria valued by customers. The objective of this master’s thesis was to develop a process to measure the ride comfort of automatic elevator doors. The door’s operational noise was chosen as a focus area and other kinds of noise for example caused by pressure differences in the elevator shaft were excluded. The thesis includes a theory part and an empirical part. In the first part theories of quality management, measuring of quality and acoustics are presented. In the empirical part the developed ride comfort measuring process is presented, different operational noise sources are analyzed and an example is presented of how this measuring process can be used to guide product development. To measure ride comfort a process was developed where a two-room silent room was used as a measuring environment and EVA-625 device was used in the actual measuring of door noise. A-weighted decibels were used to scale noise pressure levels and the door movement was monitored with an accelerometer. This enabled the connection between the noise and noise sources which in turn helped to find potential ride comfort improvement ideas. The noise isolation class was also measured with the Ivie-measuring system. Measuring of door ride comfort gives feedback to product development and to managing current product portfolio. Measuring enables the continuous improvement of elevator door ride comfort. The measuring results can also be used to back up marketing arguments for doors.

Designing a Demand Forecasting Process in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods Context

The purpose of this thesis was to study the design of demand forecasting processes. A literature review in the field of forecasting was conducted, including general forecasting process design, forecasting methods and techniques, the role of human judgment in forecasting and forecasting performance measurement. The purpose of the literature review was to identify the important design choices that an organization aiming to design or re-design their demand forecasting process would have to make. In the empirical part of the study, these choices and the existing knowledge behind them was assessed in a case study where a demand forecasting process was re-designed for a company in the fast moving consumer goods business. The new target process is described, as well as the reasoning behind the design choices made during the re-design process. As a result, the most important design choices are highlighted, as well as their immediate effect on other processes directly tied to the demand forecasting process. Additionally, some new insights on the organizational aspects of demand forecasting processes are explored. The preliminary results indicate that in this case the new process did improve forecasting accuracy, although organizational issues related to the process proved to be more challenging than anticipated.

Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

Forecasting of wind speeds and directions with artificial neural networks

In this master’s thesis, wind speeds and directions were modeled with the aim of developing suitable models for hourly, daily, weekly and monthly forecasting. Artificial Neural Networks implemented in MATLAB software were used to perform the forecasts. Three main types of artificial neural network were built, namely: Feed forward neural networks, Jordan Elman neural networks and Cascade forward neural networks. Four sub models of each of these neural networks were also built, corresponding to the four forecast horizons, for both wind speeds and directions. A single neural network topology was used for each of the forecast horizons, regardless of the model type. All the models were then trained with real data of wind speeds and directions collected over a period of two years in the municipal region of Puumala in Finland. Only 70% of the data was used for training, validation and testing of the models, while the second last 15% of the data was presented to the trained models for verification. The model outputs were then compared to the last 15% of the original data, by measuring the mean square errors and sum square errors between them. Based on the results, the feed forward networks returned the lowest generalization errors for hourly, weekly and monthly forecasts of wind speeds; Jordan Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for forecasting of daily wind speeds. Cascade forward networks gave the lowest errors when used for forecasting daily, weekly and monthly wind directions; Jordan Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for hourly forecasting. The errors were relatively low during training of the models, but shot up upon simulation with new inputs. In addition, a combination of hyperbolic tangent transfer functions for both hidden and output layers returned better results compared to other combinations of transfer functions. In general, wind speeds were more predictable as compared to wind directions, opening up opportunities for further research into building better models for wind direction forecasting.

Interoperability specifications and an automatic validation tool as a key factor for the support of a repository ecosystem

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Automatic traffic sign inventory- and condition analysis

This thesis researches automatic traffic sign inventory and condition analysis using machine vision and pattern recognition methods. Automatic traffic sign inventory and condition analysis can be used to more efficient road maintenance, improving the maintenance processes, and to enable intelligent driving systems. Automatic traffic sign detection and classification has been researched before from the viewpoint of self-driving vehicles, driver assistance systems, and the use of signs in mapping services. Machine vision based inventory of traffic signs consists of detection, classification, localization, and condition analysis of traffic signs. The produced machine vision system performance is estimated with three datasets, from which two of have been been collected for this thesis. Based on the experiments almost all traffic signs can be detected, classified, and located and their condition analysed. In future, the inventory system performance has to be verified in challenging conditions and the system has to be pilot tested.