Forecasting of wind speeds and directions with artificial neural networks

In this master’s thesis, wind speeds and directions were modeled with the aim of developing suitable models for hourly, daily, weekly and monthly forecasting. Artificial Neural Networks implemented in MATLAB software were used to perform the forecasts. Three main types of artificial neural network were built, namely: Feed forward neural networks, Jordan Elman neural networks and Cascade forward neural networks. Four sub models of each of these neural networks were also built, corresponding to the four forecast horizons, for both wind speeds and directions. A single neural network topology was used for each of the forecast horizons, regardless of the model type. All the models were then trained with real data of wind speeds and directions collected over a period of two years in the municipal region of Puumala in Finland. Only 70% of the data was used for training, validation and testing of the models, while the second last 15% of the data was presented to the trained models for verification. The model outputs were then compared to the last 15% of the original data, by measuring the mean square errors and sum square errors between them. Based on the results, the feed forward networks returned the lowest generalization errors for hourly, weekly and monthly forecasts of wind speeds; Jordan Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for forecasting of daily wind speeds. Cascade forward networks gave the lowest errors when used for forecasting daily, weekly and monthly wind directions; Jordan Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for hourly forecasting. The errors were relatively low during training of the models, but shot up upon simulation with new inputs. In addition, a combination of hyperbolic tangent transfer functions for both hidden and output layers returned better results compared to other combinations of transfer functions. In general, wind speeds were more predictable as compared to wind directions, opening up opportunities for further research into building better models for wind direction forecasting.

From emerging opportunities to successful business networks – evidence from bioenergy

Increasing renewable energy utilization is a challenge that is tried to be solved in different ways. One of the most promising options for renewable energy is different biomasses, and the bioenergy field offers numerous emerging business opportunities. The actors in the field have rarely all the needed know-how and resources for exploiting these opportunities, and thus it is reasonable to seize them in cooperation. Networking is not an easy task to carry out, however, and in addition to its advantages for the firms engaged, it sets numerous challenges as well. The development of a network is a result of several steps firms need to take. In order to gain optimal advantage of their networks, firms need to weigh out with whom, why and how they should cooperate. In addition, everything does not depend on the firms themselves, as several factors in the external environment set their own enablers and barriers for cooperation. The formation of a network around a business opportunity is thus a multiphase process. The objective of this thesis is to depict this process via a step-by-step analysis and thus increase understanding on the whole development path from an entrepreneurial opportunity to a successful business network. The empirical evidence has been gathered by discussing the opportunities of animal manure refinement to biogas and forest biomass utilization for heating in Finland. The thesis comprises two parts. The first part provides an overview of the study, and the second part includes five research publications. The results reveal that it is essential to identify and analyze all the steps in the development process of a network, and several frameworks are used in the thesis to analyze these steps. The frameworks combine the views of theory and practical experiences of empirical study, and thus give new multifaceted views for the discussion on SME networking. The results indicate that the ground for cooperation should be investigated adequately by taking account of the preconditions in all the three contexts in which the actors operate: the social context, the region and the institutional environment. In case the project advances to exploitation, the assets and objectives of the actors should be paired off, which sets a need for relationships and sub-networks differing in breadth and depth. Different relationships and networks require different kinds of maintenance and management. Moreover, the actors should have the capability to change the formality or strategy of the relationships if needed. The drivers for these changes come along with the changing environment, which causes changes in the objectives of the actors and this way in the whole network. Bioenergy as the empirical field of the study represents well an industrial field with many emerging opportunities, a motley group of actors, and sensitivity for fast changes.

Strategic management of value networks: how to create value in cross-sector collaboration and partnerships

Cross-sector collaboration and partnerships have become an emerging and desired strategy in addressing huge social and environmental challenges. Despite its popularity, cross-sector collaboration management has proven to be very challenging. Even though cross-sector collaboration and partnership management have been widely studied and discussed in recent years, their effectiveness as well as their ability to create value with respect to the problems they address has remained very challenging. There is little or no evidence of their ability to create value. Regarding all these challenges, this study aims to explore how to manage cross-sector collaborations and partnerships to be able to improve their effectiveness and to create more value for all partners involved in collaboration as well as for customers. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part comprises an overview of relevant literature (including strategic management, value networks and value creation theories), followed by presenting the results of the whole thesis and the contribution made by the study. The second part consists of six research publications, including both quantitative and qualitative studies. The chosen research strategy is triangulation, as the study includes four types of triangulation: (1) theoretical triangulation, (2) methodological triangulation, (3) data triangulation and (4) researcher triangulation. Two publications represent conceptual development, which are based on secondary data research. One publication is a quantitative study, carried out through a survey. The other three publications represent qualitative studies, based on case studies, where data was collected through interviews and workshops, with participation of managers from all three sectors: public, private and the third (nonprofit). The study consolidates the field of “strategic management of value networks,” which is proposed to be applied in the context of cross-sector collaboration and partnerships, with the aim of increasing their effectiveness and the process of value creation. Furthermore, the study proposes a first definition for the strategic management of value networks. The study also proposes and develops two strategy tools that are recommended to be used for the strategic management of value networks in cross-sector collaboration and partnerships. Taking a step forward, the study implements the strategy tools in practice, aiming to show and to demonstrate how new value can be created by using the developed strategy tools for the strategic management of value networks. This study makes four main contributions. (1) First, it brings a theoretical contribution by providing new insights and consolidating the field of strategic management of value networks, also proposing a first definition for the strategic management of value networks. (2) Second, the study makes a methodical contribution by proposing and developing two strategy tools for value networks of cross-sector collaboration: (a) value network mapping, a method that allows us to assess the current and the potential value network and (b) the Value Network Scorecard, a method of performance measurement and performance prediction in cross-sector collaboration. (3) Third, the study has managerial implications, offering new solutions and empirical evidence on how to increase the effectiveness of cross-sector collaboration and also allow managers to understand how new value can be created in cross-sector partnerships and how to get the full potential of collaboration. (4) And fourth, the study also has practical implications, allowing managers to understand how to use in practice the strategy tools developed in this study, providing discussions on the limitations regarding the proposed tools as well as general limitations involved in the study.

Energy Management System for LVDC Island Networks

Recent developments in power electronics technology have made it possible to develop competitive and reliable low-voltage DC (LVDC) distribution networks. Further, islanded microgrids—isolated small-scale localized distribution networks— have been proposed to reliably supply power using distributed generations. However, islanded operations face many issues such as power quality, voltage regulation, network stability, and protection. In this thesis, an energy management system (EMS) that ensures efficient energy and power balancing and voltage regulation has been proposed for an LVDC island network utilizing solar panels for electricity production and lead-acid batteries for energy storage. The EMS uses the master/slave method with robust communication infrastructure to control the production, storage, and loads. The logical basis for the EMS operations has been established by proposing functionalities of the network components as well as by defining appropriate operation modes that encompass all situations. During loss-of-powersupply periods, load prioritizations and disconnections are employed to maintain the power supply to at least some loads. The proposed EMS ensures optimal energy balance in the network. A sizing method based on discrete-event simulations has also been proposed to obtain reliable capacities of the photovoltaic array and battery. In addition, an algorithm to determine the number of hours of electric power supply that can be guaranteed to the customers at any given location has been developed. The successful performances of all the proposed algorithms have been demonstrated by simulations.

The role of diaspora networks in opportunity exploitation by ethnic entrepreneurs in Finland

The thesis explores the role of diaspora network in opportunity exploitation by ethnic entrepreneurs in Finland. The purpose of this study is to how ethnic entrepreneurs in Finland can exploit diaspora networks and how significant support of these networks in comparison with governmental and other official institutional support. Increased mobility of the global population and number of immigrants all around the world contribute into interest of academics to this topic. At the same time, in comparison with other European countries for Finland this phenomenon is new. However, increasing number of immigrants add to academic interest to this topic. The theoretical background of this thesis consists of the collection of studies done on diaspora networks and ethnic entrepreneurs as internationally as in Finland. The concept of cooperation between diaspora and ethnic entrepreneurs describes how diaspora can support ethnic entrepreneur and emphasize importance of diaspora ties for business. At the end of the theoretical section theoretical a special grid was proposed as summary of the academic literature review. The empirical research for this study is based on the interviews with five ethnic entrepreneurs in Finland. Empirical data was analyzed and compared with the similar studies done internationally. During the interviews analyses were stressed aspects of the significance of governmental and other official institutional support. During the interviews analyses were stressed aspects of the significance of the governmental and other official institutional support. According to the main findings diaspora can play positive and in some cases crucial role in the business of ethnic entrepreneurs in Finland. Moreover, diaspora can be a facilitator of internationalization of ethnic entrepreneurs. At the same time, there are several factors which might increase or decrease role of diaspora. The ways of the utilization of diaspora network were combined in the empirical grid. The study enhance understanding of the challenges of ethnic entrepreneurs and provides certain recommendations for the policy makers, ethnic entrepreneurs and managers of official institutions involved in cooperation with ethnic entrepreneurs