Statistical analysis of survey-based event history data with application to modeling of unemployment duration

Longitudinal surveys are increasingly used to collect event history data on person-specific processes such as transitions between labour market states. Surveybased event history data pose a number of challenges for statistical analysis. These challenges include survey errors due to sampling, non-response, attrition and measurement. This study deals with non-response, attrition and measurement errors in event history data and the bias caused by them in event history analysis. The study also discusses some choices faced by a researcher using longitudinal survey data for event history analysis and demonstrates their effects. These choices include, whether a design-based or a model-based approach is taken, which subset of data to use and, if a design-based approach is taken, which weights to use. The study takes advantage of the possibility to use combined longitudinal survey register data. The Finnish subset of European Community Household Panel (FI ECHP) survey for waves 1–5 were linked at person-level with longitudinal register data. Unemployment spells were used as study variables of interest. Lastly, a simulation study was conducted in order to assess the statistical properties of the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting (IPCW) method in a survey data context. The study shows how combined longitudinal survey register data can be used to analyse and compare the non-response and attrition processes, test the missingness mechanism type and estimate the size of bias due to non-response and attrition. In our empirical analysis, initial non-response turned out to be a more important source of bias than attrition. Reported unemployment spells were subject to seam effects, omissions, and, to a lesser extent, overreporting. The use of proxy interviews tended to cause spell omissions. An often-ignored phenomenon classification error in reported spell outcomes, was also found in the data. Neither the Missing At Random (MAR) assumption about non-response and attrition mechanisms, nor the classical assumptions about measurement errors, turned out to be valid. Both measurement errors in spell durations and spell outcomes were found to cause bias in estimates from event history models. Low measurement accuracy affected the estimates of baseline hazard most. The design-based estimates based on data from respondents to all waves of interest and weighted by the last wave weights displayed the largest bias. Using all the available data, including the spells by attriters until the time of attrition, helped to reduce attrition bias. Lastly, the simulation study showed that the IPCW correction to design weights reduces bias due to dependent censoring in design-based Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard model estimators. The study discusses implications of the results for survey organisations collecting event history data, researchers using surveys for event history analysis, and researchers who develop methods to correct for non-sampling biases in event history data.

Modeling of high pressure pretreatment process for gold leaching

Investigation of high pressure pretreatment process for gold leaching is the objective of the present master's thesis. The gold ores and concentrates which cannot be easily treated by leaching process are called "refractory". These types of ores or concentrates often have high content of sulfur and arsenic that renders the precious metal inaccessible to the leaching agents. Since the refractory ores in gold manufacturing industry take a considerable share, the pressure oxidation method (autoclave method) is considered as one of the possible ways to overcome the related problems. Mathematical modeling is the main approach in this thesis which was used for investigation of high pressure oxidation process. For this task, available information from literature concerning this phenomenon, including chemistry, mass transfer and kinetics, reaction conditions, applied apparatus and application, was collected and studied. The modeling part includes investigation of pyrite oxidation kinetics in order to create a descriptive mathematical model. The following major steps are completed: creation of process model by using the available knowledge; estimation of unknown parameters and determination of goodness of the fit; study of the reliability of the model and its parameters.

Modeling of fireside deposit formation in two industrial furnaces

Fireside deposits can be found in many types of utility and industrial furnaces. The deposits in furnaces are problematic because they can reduce heat transfer, block gas paths and cause corrosion. To tackle these problems, it is vital to estimate the influence of deposits on heat transfer, to minimize deposit formation and to optimize deposit removal. It is beneficial to have a good understanding of the mechanisms of fireside deposit formation. Numerical modeling is a powerful tool for investigating the heat transfer in furnaces, and it can provide valuable information for understanding the mechanisms of deposit formation. In addition, a sub-model of deposit formation is generally an essential part of a comprehensive furnace model. This work investigates two specific processes of fireside deposit formation in two industrial furnaces. The first process is the slagging wall found in furnaces with molten deposits running on the wall. A slagging wall model is developed to take into account the two-layer structure of the deposits. With the slagging wall model, the thickness and the surface temperature of the molten deposit layer can be calculated. The slagging wall model is used to predict the surface temperature and the heat transfer to a specific section of a super-heater tube panel with the boundary condition obtained from a Kraft recovery furnace model. The slagging wall model is also incorporated into the computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based Kraft recovery furnace model and applied on the lower furnace walls. The implementation of the slagging wall model includes a grid simplification scheme. The wall surface temperature calculated with the slagging wall model is used as the heat transfer boundary condition. Simulation of a Kraft recovery furnace is performed, and it is compared with two other cases and measurements. In the two other cases, a uniform wall surface temperature and a wall surface temperature calculated with a char bed burning model are used as the heat transfer boundary conditions. In this particular furnace, the wall surface temperatures from the three cases are similar and are in the correct range of the measurements. Nevertheless, the wall surface temperature profiles with the slagging wall model and the char bed burning model are different because the deposits are represented differently in the two models. In addition, the slagging wall model is proven to be computationally efficient. The second process is deposit formation due to thermophoresis of fine particles to the heat transfer surface. This process is considered in the simulation of a heat recovery boiler of the flash smelting process. In order to determine if the small dust particles stay on the wall, a criterion based on the analysis of forces acting on the particle is applied. Time-dependent simulation of deposit formation in the heat recovery boiler is carried out and the influence of deposits on heat transfer is investigated. The locations prone to deposit formation are also identified in the heat recovery boiler. Modeling of the two processes in the two industrial furnaces enhances the overall understanding of the processes. The sub-models developed in this work can be applied in other similar deposit formation processes with carefully-defined boundary conditions.

Computational modeling of the properties of TiO2 nanoparticles

In this study we discuss the electronic, structural, and optical properties of titanium dioxide nanoparticles, and also the properties of Ni(II) diimine dithiolato complexes as dyes in dye-sensitized TiO2 based solar cells. The abovementioned properties have been modeled by using computational codes based on the density functional theory. The results achieved show slight evidence on the structure-dependent band gap broadening, and clear blue-shifts in absorption spectra and refractive index functions of ultra-small TiO2 particles. It is also shown that these properties are strongly dependent on the shape of the nanoparticles. Regarding the Ni(II) diimine dithiolato complexes as dyes in dye-sensitized TiO2 based solar cells, it is shown that based on the experimental electrochemical investigation and DFT studies all studied diimine derivatives could serve as potential candidates for the light harvesting, but the e ciencies of the dyes studied are not very promising.

Modeling of Liquid-Solid Flow in Industrial Scale

In the present work, liquid-solid flow in industrial scale is modeled using the commercial software of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) ANSYS Fluent 14.5. In literature, there are few studies on liquid-solid flow in industrial scale, but any information about the particular case with modified geometry cannot be found. The aim of this thesis is to describe the strengths and weaknesses of the multiphase models, when a large-scale application is studied within liquid-solid flow, including the boundary-layer characteristics. The results indicate that the selection of the most appropriate multiphase model depends on the flow regime. Thus, careful estimations of the flow regime are recommended to be done before modeling. The computational tool is developed for this purpose during this thesis. The homogeneous multiphase model is valid only for homogeneous suspension, the discrete phase model (DPM) is recommended for homogeneous and heterogeneous suspension where pipe Froude number is greater than 1.0, while the mixture and Eulerian models are able to predict also flow regimes, where pipe Froude number is smaller than 1.0 and particles tend to settle. With increasing material density ratio and decreasing pipe Froude number, the Eulerian model gives the most accurate results, because it does not include simplifications in Navier-Stokes equations like the other models. In addition, the results indicate that the potential location of erosion in the pipe depends on material density ratio. Possible sedimentation of particles can cause erosion and increase pressure drop as well. In the pipe bend, especially secondary flows, perpendicular to the main flow, affect the location of erosion.

Modeling of temperature regimes in a furnace of bubbling fluidized bed boiler

The work is mainly focused on the technology of bubbling fluidized bed combustion. Heat transfer and hydrodynamics of the process were examined in the work in detail. Special emphasis was placed on the process of heat exchange in a freeboard zone of bubbling fluidized bed boiler. Operating mode of bubbling fluidized bed boiler depends on many parameters. To assess the influence of some parameters on a temperature regime inside the furnace a simplified method of zonal modeling was used in the work. Thus, effects of bed material fineness, excess air ratio and changes in boiler load were studied. Besides the technology of combustion in bubbling fluidized bed, other common technologies of solid fuels combustion were reviewed. In addition, brief survey of most widely used types of solid fuel was performed in the work.

Modal testing and numerical modeling of the dynamic properties of layered sheet-steel structure

Recently, due to the increasing total construction and transportation cost and difficulties associated with handling massive structural components or assemblies, there has been increasing financial pressure to reduce structural weight. Furthermore, advances in material technology coupled with continuing advances in design tools and techniques have encouraged engineers to vary and combine materials, offering new opportunities to reduce the weight of mechanical structures. These new lower mass systems, however, are more susceptible to inherent imbalances, a weakness that can result in higher shock and harmonic resonances which leads to poor structural dynamic performances. The objective of this thesis is the modeling of layered sheet steel elements, to accurately predict dynamic performance. During the development of the layered sheet steel model, the numerical modeling approach, the Finite Element Analysis and the Experimental Modal Analysis are applied in building a modal model of the layered sheet steel elements. Furthermore, in view of getting a better understanding of the dynamic behavior of layered sheet steel, several binding methods have been studied to understand and demonstrate how a binding method affects the dynamic behavior of layered sheet steel elements when compared to single homogeneous steel plate. Based on the developed layered sheet steel model, the dynamic behavior of a lightweight wheel structure to be used as the structure for the stator of an outer rotor Direct-Drive Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator designed for high-power wind turbines is studied.

Computational modeling of stented coronary arteries

The application of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and finite element analysis (FEA) has been growing rapidly in the various fields of science and technology. One of the areas of interest is in biomedical engineering. The altered hemodynamics inside the blood vessels plays a key role in the development of the arterial disease called atherosclerosis, which is the major cause of human death worldwide. Atherosclerosis is often treated with the stenting procedure to restore the normal blood flow. A stent is a tubular, flexible structure, usually made of metals, which is driven and expanded in the blocked arteries. Despite the success rate of the stenting procedure, it is often associated with the restenosis (re-narrowing of the artery) process. The presence of non-biological device in the artery causes inflammation or re-growth of atherosclerotic lesions in the treated vessels. Several factors including the design of stents, type of stent expansion, expansion pressure, morphology and composition of vessel wall influence the restenosis process. Therefore, the role of computational studies is crucial in the investigation and optimisation of the factors that influence post-stenting complications. This thesis focuses on the stent-vessel wall interactions followed by the blood flow in the post-stenting stage of stenosed human coronary artery. Hemodynamic and mechanical stresses were analysed in three separate stent-plaque-artery models. Plaque was modeled as a multi-layer (fibrous cap (FC), necrotic core (NC), and fibrosis (F)) and the arterial wall as a single layer domain. CFD/FEA simulations were performed using commercial software packages in several models mimicking the various stages and morphologies of atherosclerosis. The tissue prolapse (TP) of stented vessel wall, the distribution of von Mises stress (VMS) inside various layers of vessel wall, and the wall shear stress (WSS) along the luminal surface of the deformed vessel wall were measured and evaluated. The results revealed the role of the stenosis size, thickness of each layer of atherosclerotic wall, thickness of stent strut, pressure applied for stenosis expansion, and the flow condition in the distribution of stresses. The thicknesses of FC, and NC and the total thickness of plaque are critical in controlling the stresses inside the tissue. A small change in morphology of artery wall can significantly affect the distribution of stresses. In particular, FC is the most sensitive layer to TP and stresses, which could determine plaque’s vulnerability to rupture. The WSS is highly influenced by the deflection of artery, which in turn is dependent on the structural composition of arterial wall layers. Together with the stenosis size, their roles could play a decisive role in controlling the low values of WSS (<0.5 Pa) prone to restenosis. Moreover, the time dependent flow altered the percentage of luminal area with WSS values less than 0.5 Pa at different time instants. The non- Newtonian viscosity model of the blood properties significantly affects the prediction of WSS magnitude. The outcomes of this investigation will help to better understand the roles of the individual layers of atherosclerotic vessels and their risk to provoke restenosis at the post-stenting stage. As a consequence, the implementation of such an approach to assess the post-stented stresses will assist the engineers and clinicians in optimizing the stenting techniques to minimize the occurrence of restenosis.

CFD modeling of dispersion water feed in wastewater cleaning application

Fluid particle breakup and coalescence are important phenomena in a number of industrial flow systems. This study deals with a gas-liquid bubbly flow in one wastewater cleaning application. Three-dimensional geometric model of a dispersion water system was created in ANSYS CFD meshing software. Then, numerical study of the system was carried out by means of unsteady simulations performed in ANSYS FLUENT CFD software. Single-phase water flow case was setup to calculate the entire flow field using the RNG k-epsilon turbulence model based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations. Bubbly flow case was based on a computational fluid dynamics - population balance model (CFD-PBM) coupled approach. Bubble breakup and coalescence were considered to determine the evolution of the bubble size distribution. Obtained results are considered as steps toward optimization of the cleaning process and will be analyzed in order to make the process more efficient.

Modeling of fractal antennas

In this Master Thesis the characteristics of the chosen fractal microstrip antennas are investigated. For modeling has been used the structure of the square Serpinsky fractal curves. During the elaboration of this Master thesis the following steps were undertaken: 1) calculation and simulation of square microstrip antennа, 2) optimizing for obtaining the required characteristics on the frequency 2.5 GHz, 3) simulation and calculation of the second and third iteration of the Serpinsky fractal curves, 4) radiation patterns and intensity distribution of these antennas. In this Master’s Thesis the search for the optimal position of the port and fractal elements was conducted. These structures can be used in perspective for creation of antennas working at the same time in different frequency range.

Three-dimensional modeling of biomass fuel flow in a circulating fluidized bed furnace

The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union promotes the combustion of biomass rather than fossil fuels in energy production. Circulating fluidized bed (CFB) combustion offers a simple, flexible and efficient way to utilize untreated biomass in a large scale. CFB furnaces are modeled in order to understand their operation better and to help in the design of new furnaces. Therefore, physically accurate models are needed to describe the heavily coupled multiphase flow, reactions and heat transfer inside the furnace. This thesis presents a new model for the fuel flow inside the CFB furnace, which acknowledges the physical properties of the fuel and the multiphase flow phenomena inside the furnace. This model is applied with special interest in the firing of untreated biomass. An experimental method is utilized to characterize gas-fuel drag force relations. This characteristic drag force approach is developed into a gas-fuel drag force model suitable for irregular, non-spherical biomass particles and applied together with the new fuel flow model in the modeling of a large-scale CFB furnace. The model results are physically valid and achieve very good correspondence with the measurement results from large-scale CFB furnace firing biomass. With the methods and models presented in this work, the fuel flow field inside a circulating fluidized bed furnace can be modeled with better accuracy and more efficiently than in previous studies with a three-dimensional holistic model frame.

Modeling of burden distribution in the blast furnace

The blast furnace is the main ironmaking production unit in the world which converts iron ore with coke and hot blast into liquid iron, hot metal, which is used for steelmaking. The furnace acts as a counter-current reactor charged with layers of raw material of very different gas permeability. The arrangement of these layers, or burden distribution, is the most important factor influencing the gas flow conditions inside the furnace, which dictate the efficiency of the heat transfer and reduction processes. For proper control the furnace operators should know the overall conditions in the furnace and be able to predict how control actions affect the state of the furnace. However, due to high temperatures and pressure, hostile atmosphere and mechanical wear it is very difficult to measure internal variables. Instead, the operators have to rely extensively on measurements obtained at the boundaries of the furnace and make their decisions on the basis of heuristic rules and results from mathematical models. It is particularly difficult to understand the distribution of the burden materials because of the complex behavior of the particulate materials during charging. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to clarify some aspects of burden distribution and to develop tools that can aid the decision-making process in the control of the burden and gas distribution in the blast furnace. A relatively simple mathematical model was created for simulation of the distribution of the burden material with a bell-less top charging system. The model developed is fast and it can therefore be used by the operators to gain understanding of the formation of layers for different charging programs. The results were verified by findings from charging experiments using a small-scale charging rig at the laboratory. A basic gas flow model was developed which utilized the results of the burden distribution model to estimate the gas permeability of the upper part of the blast furnace. This combined formulation for gas and burden distribution made it possible to implement a search for the best combination of charging parameters to achieve a target gas temperature distribution. As this mathematical task is discontinuous and non-differentiable, a genetic algorithm was applied to solve the optimization problem. It was demonstrated that the method was able to evolve optimal charging programs that fulfilled the target conditions. Even though the burden distribution model provides information about the layer structure, it neglects some effects which influence the results, such as mixed layer formation and coke collapse. A more accurate numerical method for studying particle mechanics, the Discrete Element Method (DEM), was used to study some aspects of the charging process more closely. Model charging programs were simulated using DEM and compared with the results from small-scale experiments. The mixed layer was defined and the voidage of mixed layers was estimated. The mixed layer was found to have about 12% less voidage than layers of the individual burden components. Finally, a model for predicting the extent of coke collapse when heavier pellets are charged over a layer of lighter coke particles was formulated based on slope stability theory, and was used to update the coke layer distribution after charging in the mathematical model. In designing this revision, results from DEM simulations and charging experiments for some charging programs were used. The findings from the coke collapse analysis can be used to design charging programs with more stable coke layers.

Validation of a 3D model for oxygen combustion in a circulating fluidized bed

In this thesis, a model called CFB3D is validated for oxygen combustion in circulating fluidized bed boiler. The first part of the work consists of literature review in which circulating fluidized bed and oxygen combustion technologies are studied. In addition, the modeling of circulating fluidized bed furnaces is discussed and currently available industrial scale three-dimensional furnace models are presented. The main features of CFB3D model are presented along with the theories and equations related to the model parameters used in this work. The second part of this work consists of the actual research and modeling work including measurements, model setup, and modeling results. The objectives of this thesis is to study how well CFB3D model works with oxygen combustion compared to air combustion in circulating fluidized bed boiler and what model parameters need to be adjusted when changing from air to oxygen combustion. The study is performed by modeling two air combustion cases and two oxygen combustion cases with comparable boiler loads. The cases are measured at Ciuden 30 MWth Flexi-Burn demonstration plant in April 2012. The modeled furnace temperatures match with the measurements as well in oxygen combustion cases as in air combustion cases but the modeled gas concentrations differ from the measurements clearly more in oxygen combustion cases. However, the same model parameters are optimal for both air and oxygen combustion cases. When the boiler load is changed, some combustion and heat transfer related model parameters need to be adjusted. To improve the accuracy of modeling results, better flow dynamics model should be developed in the CFB3D model. Additionally, more measurements are needed from the lower furnace to find the best model parameters for each case. The validation work needs to be continued in order to improve the modeling results and model predictability.