Forecasting with social media – Using Facebook likes to predict the results of the 2015 Finnish Parliamentary elections

Already one-third of the human population uses social media on a daily basis. The biggest social networking site Facebook has over billion monthly users. As a result, social media services are now recording unprecedented amount of data on human behavior. The phenomenon has certainly caught the attention of scholars, businesses and governments alike. Organizations around the globe are trying to explore new ways to benefit from the massive databases. One emerging field of research is the use of social media in forecasting. The goal is to use data gathered from online services to predict offline phenomena. Predicting the results of elections is a prominent example of forecasting with social media, but regardless of the numerous attempts, no reliable technique has been established. The objective of the research is to analyze how accurately the results of parliament elections can be forecasted using social media. The research examines whether Facebook “likes” can be effectively used for predicting the outcome of the Finnish parliament elections that took place in April 2015. First a tool for gathering data from Facebook was created. Then the data was used to create an electoral forecast. Finally, the forecast was compared with the official results of the elections. The data used in the research was gathered from the Facebook walls of all the candidates that were running for the parliament elections and had a valid Facebook page. The final sample represents 1131 candidates and over 750000 Facebook “likes”. The results indicate that creating a forecast solely based on Facebook “likes” is not accurate. The forecast model predicted very dramatic changes to the Finnish political landscape while the official results of the elections were rather moderate. However, a clear statistical relationship between “likes” and votes was discovered. In conclusion, it is apparent that citizens and other key actors of the society are using social media in an increasing rate. However, the volume of the data does not directly increase the quality of the forecast. In addition, the study faced several other limitations that should be addressed in future research. Nonetheless, discovering the positive correlation between “likes” and votes is valuable information that can be used in future studies. Finally, it is evident that Facebook “likes” are not accurate enough and a meaningful forecast would require additional parameters.

Between Dugin’s Eurasianism and Mahan’s Sea Power Concept: Russia’s Geopolitical Discourse within Foucault’s ‘Discursive Tree’ before and After the Incorporation of the Crimea

The fall of 2013 could be characterized as a crossroad in the geopolitics of Eastern Europe, namely Ukraine. Two rivalry geopolitical projects have been developing throughout the post-Cold War years, and it seems that they reached a collision point in Ukraine; a country whose authorities have been for long switching sides between the European Union and the Russian Federation in their foreign policy commitments. The refusal/postponing to sign the Association Agreement with Brussels, an expected event by a large category of the Ukrainian society, by Yanukovich’s government led to the outset of the latter; and brought a pro-Western, anti-Russian government in Kyiv. It seems that Ukraine, after those events, has embarked definitively on the path of integration into the West (European Union and possibly NATO). The Russian Federation, who has been throughout Putin’s years engaged into the re-integration of post-Soviet space, reacted to these developments in an assertive manner by violating borders, agreements and the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Thus, the incorporation of the Crimea into the Russian Federation is the first in its kind in the post-Soviet space, despite the existence of various other conflicts that broke out in the region after the Soviet Union broke up. I will investigate in this thesis the nature of what will be labelled, in this work, the Crimean issue. I argue that the incorporation of the Crimean peninsula into the Russian Federation marks a new era in Russian geopolitical thinking that shapes, to a far extent, Russian foreign policy. Discourse analysis will be the methodological basis for this study, with a special focus on Michel Foucault’s Archaeology of Knowledge. The innovation that this research brings is the fact that it discusses Russian geopolitical discourse within the scope of Foucault’s ‘discursive tree’, with a reference to the Crimean issue. A wide range of primary sources will be consulted in this study such as presidential addresses to the Federal Assembly (2000-2014), Foreign Policy Concepts of the Russian Federation (2000, 2008), Russian maritime doctrines, as wells as Dugin’s Osnovy Geopolitiki (Foundations of Geopolitics), Mahan’s (The Influence of Sea Power Upon History, 1660–1783) and other Eurasianism related literature.

Individual Crimes or a Sociological Phenomenon: A Critical discourse analysis of the 2014 Royal Canadian Mounted Police National Operational Overview on missing and murdered Indigenous women in Canada

Pro gradu -tutkielma käsittelee Kanadan poliisivoimien, Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), vuoden 2014 operationaalista raporttia Kanadan kadonneista ja murhatuista alkuperäiskansojen naisista. Heitä katoaa ja murhataan Kanadassa suhteessa huomattavasti enemmän kuin muita naisia. Aihe on hyvin ajankohtainen sekä kriittinen ja siihen on paikallisten organisaatioiden lisäksi kiinnittänyt huomiota mm. Amnesty International ja Yhdistyneet Kansakunnat. Tilannetta pidetään jo ihmisoikeuskriisinä ja sen puolesta puhuminen voidaan nähdä osana laajempaa kansannousua alkuperäiskansojen oikeuksien puolesta. Kanadan hallitusta sekä poliisivoimia on syytetty välinpitämättömyydestä ja rasismista, poliiseja jopa väkivallasta alkuperäiskansojen naisia kohtaan. Kanadan hallitus ei myönnä ongelman olevan sosiologinen ilmiö, vaan pääministerin mukaan naisten katoamiset ja murhat ovat yksittäisiä rikoksia. Tilanteen taustalla on laajempi ongelma, joka juontaa juurensa kolonialismista, alkuperäiskansojen pakkokoulutuksesta ja heidän kulttuurinsa sekä identiteettinsä tuhoamisesta. Ennakkoluulot ja stereotypiat elävät yhä vahvana luoden heikon aseman alkuperäiskansojen edustajille ja tässä tapauksessa erityisesti naisille, joita myös usein syytetään omista ongelmistaan. Tutkielma selvittää, onko tämä operationaalinen raportti eriarvoisuutta, stereotypioita sekä ennakkoluuloja ylläpitävä ja tukeeko se näkemystä sosiologisesta ilmiöstä. Poliisivoimat ovat yhteiskunnassa vaikutusvaltaisessa asemassa ja voivat edesauttaa, jatkaa ja voimistaa syrjivää ajattelua, käytöstä ja viestintää. Vaikka he myös ajavat alkuperäiskansojen etuja, tulee heidän toimintaansa ja täten tätä kyseistä raporttia tarkastella kriittisesti. Tutkielma keskittyy kriittiseen diskurssianalyysiin (Fairclough 1995, Wodak & Meyer 2009). Raportin teksti ei ole avoimesti diskriminoivaa ja keskittyy tilastojen ja lukujen raportointiin sekä vertailuun, luoden samalla kuvan asianomaisista sekä tilanteesta yleisesti. Makroanalyysi (van Dijk 1977, 1980) mahdollistaa korkeamman tason ajatusten ja ideoiden esille tuonnin paljastaen ns. rivien välistä löytyvän viestinnän. Näistä makroanalyysin tuloksista etsitään erilaisia diskurssistrategioita (Reisigl & Wodak 2001), joiden avulla luodaan mm. kuva positiivisesta itsestä ja negatiivisesta toisesta. Näitä tuloksia tuetaan lyhyellä multimodaalisella analyysillä, joka keskittyy lähinnä raportin kahteen kuvaan (Kress & van Leeuwen 2006). Lopuksi tuloksista keskustellaan suhteessa yhteiskunnan valtasuhteisiin (Foucault 1976), rasismiin ja seksismiin. Analyysin perusteella raportti on selkeästi diskriminoiva. Se tuo esiin vanhoja stereotypioita ja ennakkoluuloja, esittää tilanteen alkuperäiskansojen sisäisenä ongelmana, jättää mainitsematta tilanteen taustat ja luo hyvin positiivisen kuvan poliisivoimista (RCMP). Tällä tavoin se ylläpitää yhteiskunnan epätasapainoisia valtasuhteita ja alkuperäiskansojen naisten heikompaa ja marginalisoitua asemaa. Raportti todistaa kuinka syvällä Kanadan yhteiskunnassa jopa institutionaalisella tasolla nämä ajatukset piilevät, sillä diskriminaatio ulottuu tapausten syistä niiden käsittelyyn ja raportointiin. Tilanne on huolestuttava ja voidaan nähdä sosiologisena ilmiönä. Poliisivoimien tulisi lisätä sisäistä koulutusta asian suhteen sekä hallituksen tutkia tätä ilmiönä ja paneutua sen selvittämiseen laaja-alaisesti ja läpinäkyvästi.

Remembering the War and Aggression: A Discourse Analysis of Japan’s State Apologies and Commemoration Speeches on August 15th 1995-2015

Memories of historical injustices affect contemporary politics from local to global level. In East Asia, questions of commemoration and historical responsibility have turned into international and domestic controversies. The main focus has been and still is in apologies conducted by Japanese prime ministers in regards to the war, aggression and colonialism during the era of Imperial Japan. Although it is granted that state apologies are not a crucial part of reconciliation, they can be analysed as a linked but separate process within the context of memory and international relations. The purpose of this study is to examine the discourses of history in Japanese prime ministers’ commemoration speeches on Memorial Ceremony for the War Dead from 1995 to 2015 in order to analyse how the Japanese government is reflecting on its past. In particular, attention is paid on what is being commemorated and how, whether it is the war and its victims or Japan’s post-war era of peace. As an apology is a reciprocal activity, responses from Japan’s most vocal former victims, South Korea and China, were also examined. Discourse analysis was used to identify and examine the different representations of the past. In addition, the apology statements of Japanese prime ministers were analysed in the Many to Many apology framework developed by Tavuchis (1991). Primary material consisted of 21 prime ministers’ speeches from the annual Memorial Ceremony for the War Dead on August 15th and from three apology statements made in 1995, 2005 and 2015. Further international context was primarily collected from newspaper articles of The New York Times and The Times throughout the examined period. It can be concluded from the findings that in the official Japanese remembrance of the past war from 1985’s annexation of Taiwan to the atomic bombings in 1945, both discourses that reinforce apology and remorse over Japan’s past aggressions and discourses that consciously avoid doing so are used. The commemoration speeches and apology statements consistently assert that Japan has acknowledged its past and expresses regret over the acts of aggression. At the same time, the speeches and statements strengthen the narrative that Japan was a victim of circumstances as well as turn the focus on post-war peace-making or on Japan’s own victimhood.

Teknologiazombie – Sosiaalinen media arjessa

Tutkielman tavoitteena on tutkia teknologian ja sosiaalisen median vaikutusta yksilön arkeen, sekä selvittää, miten saatavilla olevan tiedon määrä näkyy yksilön arkielämässä ja mitä oheisvaikutuksia jatkuvalla tietovirralla ja aktiivisella sosiaalisen median käytöllä on. Lisäksi tavoitteena on muodostaa kuva siitä, miten yhteisöverkkopalvelut ja kokoaikaisen tavoitettavuuden vaatimus vaikuttavat arkeen ja mitä mahdollisia seuraamuksia aktiivisella sosiaalisen median käytöllä on. Tutkielma vastaa seuraaviin kysymyksiin: Katoaako yksityisyyden rajat tulevaisuudessa? Miten lisääntyvä sosiaalisen median käyttö vaikuttaa ihmisten keskinäiseen vuorovaikutukseen työssä ja yksityiselämässä? Kysymyksiin vastataan muodostamalla kattava kuva mobiili- ja verkkopalveluiden aiheuttamista arjen muutoksista, sekä sosiaalisen median käytön nykytilasta. Sosiaalisen median nykytilan tarkastelu keskittyy sosiaalisen median kehitykseen sekä yhteisöverkkopalveluiden suosituimpiin muotoihin. Erityisesti käydään läpi miten palveluita voidaan kategorisoida, sekä miten ne eroavat toisistaan. Tutkielman lopussa keskitytään sosiaalisen median vaikutuksiin: mitä positiivista ja negatiivista yhteisöpalveluiden käytössä on ja miten ne näkyvät niin työ- kuin arkielämässä. Tutkielman tuloksena todetaan, että sosiaalisen median aktiivinen käyttö hämärtää yksityisen ja julkisen tiedon rajaa, sillä sosiaalisessa mediassa yksityiseksi tarkoitettu viesti tai kuva voi levitä merkittävästi laajemmalle yleisölle. Kun epäsuotuisa julkaisu on tehty, on yksityisyys menetetty eikä julkaistua tietoa voi enää täysin poistaa verkosta. Tämä ominaisuus voi aiheuttaa epäsuotuisia sosiaalisia tilanteita etenkin silloin, kun käyttäjän medialukutaito tai teknologiaosaaminen ovat matalalla tasolla. Sosiaalinen yhteydenpito on yhä useamman virtuaalista, mikä edellyttää kykyä ja halua hyödyntää verkkopalveluita madaltuneen yksityisyyden kustannuksella.

A year after Crimea: continuity and change of Finnish-Russian relations reflected in the views of the government officials of Finland and Russia

This thesis discusses the dynamism of bilateral relations between Finland and Russia and their interconnection with wider EU-Russia relations in the sight of the recent conflict in Ukraine. In particular, incorporation of Crimea in the territory of Russia in March 2014 is believed to have triggered a series of disputes between the European Union and Russia and thus, have impacted the course of the bilateral Finnish-Russian relations. The study leans on a premise that there are some historical traditions and regularities in the Finnish foreign policy course towards Russia which make the bilateral Finnish-Russian relations special. These traditions are distinguished and described in the book “Russia Forever? Towards Pragmatism in Finnish/Russian relations” (2008) edited by H. Rytövuori-Apunen. Assuming that the featured traditions take place in modern relations between Finland and Russia, the aim of the thesis is to find out how these traditions reappear during the year shaped by the events in Ukraine. In order to do that, author follows the timeline of happenings around the Ukraine crisis starting with Crimea’s referendum on independence, and exams the way these events were commented on and evaluated by the key government officials and political institutions of Finland and Russia. The main focus is given to the Finnish official discourse on Russia during the study period. The data collection, consisting of mostly primary sources (ministerial press releases and comments, statements, speeches and blog posts of individual policy makers) is processed using the thematic analysis supported by the content analysis. The study reveals that the consequences of the Ukraine crisis have brought, among others, complications to the economic cooperation between Finland and Russia, and have stimulated the increased attention of the Finnish decision makers to the country’s security questions. As a result, the character and importance of some historical regularities of the Finnish foreign policies on Russia, like the Continental Dilemma, have taken new shape.

Central auditory processing and the acquisition of phonology in 2-year-old children with recurrent acute otitis media

Middle ear infections (acute otitis media, AOM) are among the most common infectious diseases in childhood, their incidence being greatest at the age of 6–12 months. Approximately 10–30% of children undergo repetitive periods of AOM, referred to as recurrent acute otitis media (RAOM). Middle ear fluid during an AOM episode causes, on average, 20–30 dB of hearing loss lasting from a few days to as much as a couple of months. It is well known that even a mild permanent hearing loss has an effect on language development but so far there is no consensus regarding the consequences of RAOM on childhood language acquisition. The results of studies on middle ear infections and language development have been partly discrepant and the exact effects of RAOM on the developing central auditory nervous system are as yet unknown. This thesis aims to examine central auditory processing and speech production among 2-year-old children with RAOM. Event-related potentials (ERPs) extracted from electroencephalography can be used to objectively investigate the functioning of the central auditory nervous system. For the first time this thesis has utilized auditory ERPs to study sound encoding and preattentive auditory discrimination of speech stimuli, and neural mechanisms of involuntary auditory attention in children with RAOM. Furthermore, the level of phonological development was studied by investigating the number and the quality of consonants produced by these children. Acquisition of consonant phonemes, which are harder to hear than vowels, is a good indicator of the ability to form accurate memory representations of ambient language and has not been studied previously in Finnish-speaking children with RAOM. The results showed that the cortical sound encoding was intact but the preattentive auditory discrimination of multiple speech sound features was atypical in those children with RAOM. Furthermore, their neural mechanisms of auditory attention differed from those of their peers, thus indicating that children with RAOM are atypically sensitive to novel but meaningless sounds. The children with RAOM also produced fewer consonants than their controls. Noticeably, they had a delay in the acquisition of word-medial consonants and the Finnish phoneme /s/, which is acoustically challenging to perceive compared to the other Finnish phonemes. The findings indicate the immaturity of central auditory processing in the children with RAOM, and this might also emerge in speech production. This thesis also showed that the effects of RAOM on central auditory processing are long-lasting because the children had healthy ears at the time of the study. An effective neural network for speech sound processing is a basic requisite of language acquisition, and RAOM in early childhood should be considered as a risk factor for language development.

Social media in the purchasing of knowledge-intensive business services

The purpose of this thesis was to understand how industrial buyers utilize social media in the purchasing of knowledge-intensive business services. By combining theories from past research a theoretical framework was formed to visualize the role of the social media at the different stages of the purchasing process. The subject was approached from the industrial buyers’ perspective instead of the knowledge-intensive business firm. The research was conducted using two qualitative research methods: interviews and netnography. The selected interviewees have been involved in the decision-making unit for purchasing knowledge-intensive business services. Additionally all of them are using various social media. Based on the interviews social media is used merely to support decision-making. Some of the interviewees had also shared their own experiences about the service and collaboration with the service provider with other social media users. Based on the interviews two social media were chosen for closer examination. The findings from netnography support the results from the interviews. The outcome of knowledgeintensive business services is dependable of the professionals. Therefore the information is used during decision-making process to confirm the formed image of the service, and the professionals of the service provider. Information obtained from social media complements information provided by the supplier. Even though the interviewees had not themselves used social media to find information about the service during search process, finding from netnography suggest it to exist. Industrial buyers ask other users’ opinions and experience about the services, and receive recommendations to them. Some recommendations are given publicly, but more discreet information is shared in private conversations. Observations in social media show that industrial buyers might be exposed to triggers to promote problem recognition as well. Companies share news and successful customer cases through their social media profiles, which might affect the industrial buyers, but to confirm this requires further research. The industrial buyers’ use of social media during different purchasing processes of knowledgeintensive business services can be conceptualize based on the findings. This helps companies to create right content to their social media pages, and encourage professionals to develop their networks in social media.

Commercial blog communication and brand image

The aim of this thesis was to examine whether company initiated commercial communication in personal blogs has an effect on consumers’ brand image. A detailed picture of the main topics was built based on the previous academic literature. The study explores how sponsored and company-initiated blog postings influence consumers’ brand image with a qualitative research. A framework defines the link between the main concepts of commercial blog communication and how this can be used in order to reach positive results in relation to consumers’ brand image. The findings of this study demonstrate that if the tech-savvy consumers consider that the commercial blog communication is genuine and the blogger stands behind the recommendation of the blog posting, it will result on a more positive brand image. However, if the consumers consider the content of the blog posting to be too controlled by the company, it is automatically seen as an advertisement instead of a recommendation by someone trustworthy. The company-controlled commercial blog communication without presenting the personality of the blogger has negative effects on brand image.

Corporate green image communication through public disclosures and social media

Today, companies need to mind the environment in all their actions. Policies, regulations and growing pressure from environmentally conscious public are driving corporations to invest increasingly in their green images. Communication plays a key role in forming and maintaining that image. This thesis explores how six selected companies communicate about their environmental efforts and activities, and its linkage to their green images, in annual and sustainability reports and in Facebook. The companies come from the U.S. and Europe and operate in three different industries: ICT, oil and gas, and aerospace & defense. Qualitative and quantitative content analyses are conducted to examine 36 reports and 121 Facebook messages, collected from the period of 2010-2014, and from 2005 for comparison. The results show that although the quality and quantity of environmental disclosure is increasing, there is still room for improvement. Overall, disclosure in the ICT sector is on the highest level. The European companies disclose more and on average have stronger green images than the American ones. Emissions and ways to reduce them is by far the most covered topic in both continents and in all three industry sectors. The messages in Facebook are closer to advertising, and overall the platform is utilized surprisingly little.

Personal branding on social media - The characteristics of strong personal brands in Finland

The purpose of the study is to define the characteristics of strong personal brands on social media in Finland. Personal branding as a phenomenon is no longer limited to celebrities and political leaders. The digital revolution and the change in online behavior have created the need for a deeper investigation of the characteristics of strong personal brands on social media. The work of different academics on personal branding are examined to gain a comprehensive understanding on this research topic that has gone through a revolution during the last decade. Early impression management theory is refined to include elements from more modern literature related to personal branding, brand identity management and social media to create a theoretical framework that simplifies the process of personal brand building on social media. The framework consisting of three phases clarifies the process of modern personal branding. The results of the study are presented in line with three research themes derived from the theoretical framework: the background of the brand, the brand identity management and the social media behavior and activities. Mixed methods are used in the research as means to broaden perception on the subject. The quantitative part of the study defines general characteristics concerning the most follower personal brands in Finland in three social media channels – Facebook, Instagram and Twitter. The other part of the research was conducted by single case study including two Finnish personal brands cases to provide a deeper understanding of personal branding practices of strong social media personal brands. The results of the study show that the most used social media channels differ in terms of the personal brand characteristics and personal branding activities. Due to the characteristics of the channels also the post activities of the personal brands differ quite significantly. It can be also inferred that there is a difference between brands with an existing offline awareness and the brands with no awareness before joining the social media. In order to reduce the gap between the ideal brand image and the current image, the brand should have a clear vision as well as a good understanding of the target group and the value it creates for its target audience. The brand identity needs to be managed by communicating with the target audience authentically in the right channels, with relevant content. The dedication, the target group’s behavior and the ability to create valuable and relevant content determines the right tactics for social media personal branding.