Suomalaisten teknologia-alan pörssiyhtiöiden suoriutuminen finanssikriisin aikana

Tässä kandidaatintutkielmassa tarkastellaan vuonna 2008 kärjistyneen finanssikriisin aiheuttamien suhdannevaihteluiden vaikutusta Nasdaq OMX Helsinkiin listattujen teknologia-alan yritysten suorituskykyyn. Tutkielman päätavoitteena on selvittää millaisiin listautuneisiin teknologia-alan yrityksiin finanssikriisi vaikutti eniten. Analyysi toteutettiin kvantitatiivisin menetelmin hyödyntämällä klusterianalyysiä sekä Kruskal-Wallis -testiä.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Toimintokohtainen kustannuslaskenta muovialan teollisuusyrityksessä

Jatkuva teknologioiden kehittyminen ja globaalin talousjärjestelmän lainalaisuudet pakottavat yrityksiä kiinnittämään enenevässä määrin huomiota kilpailukykyyn ja kannattavuuteen. Kustannuslaskennan tarkkuus on yksi tärkeimmistä taloushallinnon elementeistä kilpailukyvyn ylläpitämisessä. Virheisiin ei ole varaa, sillä väärin perustein tehdyt kustannuslaskennat ajavat yrityksen nopeasti taloudellisiin vaikeuksiin. Tässä tutkimuksessa oli tavoitteena etsiä teollisen muovialan yrityksen tarpeisiin parhaiten sopiva kustannuslaskentajärjestelmä. Tutkimuksen teoriaosassa tutustuttiin eri kustannuslaskentamenetelmiin, ja tarkemmin toimintolaskennan yksinkertaisempaan muotoon, aikaperusteiseen toimintolaskentaan, sen toimivuuden ja käytettävyyden kannalta. Tutkimus toteutettiin konstruktiivisena case -tutkimuksena, jossa pyrittiin kuvaamaan ja havainnollistamaan uusi laskentamalli eli konstruktio. Tutkimuksen empiirisessä osuudessa suoritettiin esimerkkilaskelmia case yrityksen valmistamalle tuoteryhmälle ja vertailtiin laskelman tuloksia nykyiseen laskentamalliin. Saatujen tietojen pohjalta yritys pystyy muokkaamaan hinnoittelua vastaamaan kannattavuustavoitteita ja parantamaan kilpailukykyään, sillä malli tuottaa tarkempaa tietoa kustannuksista ja asiakaskohtaisista kannattavuuksista.

Effect of Material Recycling on the Feasibility of Solid Recovered Fuel Fired Power Plant

This master’s thesis examines the effects of increased material recycling on different waste-to-energy concepts. With background study and a developed techno-economic computational method the feasibility of chosen scenarios with different combinations of mechanical treatment and waste firing technologies can be evaluated. The background study covers the waste scene of Finland, and potential market areas Poland and France. Calculated cases concentrate on municipal solid waste treatment in the Finnish operational environment. The chosen methodology to approach the objectives is techno-economic feasibility assessment. It combines calculation methods of literature and practical engineering to define the material and energy balances in chosen scenarios. The calculation results together with other operational and financial data can be concluded to net present values compared between the scenarios. For the comparison, four scenarios, most vital and alternative between each other, are established. The baseline scenario is grate firing of source separated mixed municipal solid waste. Second scenario is fluidized bed combustion of solid recovered fuel produced in mechanical treatment process with metal separation. Third scenario combines a biomaterial separation process to the solid recovered fuels preparation and in the last scenario plastics are separated in addition to the previous operations. The results indicated that the mechanical treatment scenarios still need to overcome some problems to become feasible. Problems are related to profitability, residue disposal and technical reliability. Many uncertainties are also related to the data gathered over waste characteristics, technical performance and markets. With legislative support and development of further processing technologies and markets of the recycled materials the scenarios with biomaterial and plastic separation may operate feasibly in the future.

Increased profitability and efficiency by improving the Meetings & Events Category S2P-process – Case Company

The purpose of this research was to examine the most optimal way to arrange meetings and events management and source to pay –process in a global company. The research is a qualitative multi-method case study and is a commission from a global company. The theoretical framework of this research structures around two approaches. First approach focus on a purchasing strategy and management that shows the current role of procure-ment and introduce different ways to organize purchasing functions. Second approach focus on purchasing process management and improvement methods. Annual spend analyze, external and internal interviews and internal survey were done to gain compre-hensive knowledge about the current state of operations and possible solutions. Gathered data were then combined to theoretical framework in order to create optimal solution for the case company. Based on the research a source to pay –process and global policy for meeting and event category was created. The solution includes all relevant matters that are needed in order to secure efficient and profitable operations. The results show that optimal way to arrange meetings and events structures around standardized source to pay –processes, central-ized procurement, preferred supplier and clearly defined roles and responsibilities be-tween different stakeholders.

Animal Spirits in Financial Markets: Agent-Based Model

In this work an agent based model (ABM) was proposed using the main idea from the Jabłonska-Capasso-Morale (JCM) model and maximized greediness concept. Using a multi-agents simulator, the power of the ABM was assessed by using the historical prices of silver metal dating from the 01.03.2000 to 01.03.2013. The model results, analysed in two different situations, with and without maximized greediness, have proven that the ABM is capable of explaining the silver price dynamics even in utmost events. The ABM without maximal greediness explained the prices with more irrationalities whereas the ABM with maximal greediness tracked the price movements with more rational decisions. In the comparison test, the model without maximal greediness stood as the best to capture the silver market dynamics. Therefore, the proposed ABM confirms the suggested reasons for financial crises or markets failure. It reveals that an economic or financial collapse may be stimulated by irrational and rational decisions, yet irrationalities may dominate the market.

Viimeisimmän finanssikriisin vaikutukset Helsingin Pörssin kulutuspalveluita tuottaviin yrityksiin

Tämän kandidaatintutkielman tarkoituksena on analysoida miten vuonna 2008 alkanut finanssikriisi ja sen aiheuttama taloudellinen epävarmuus ovat vaikuttaneet Nasdaq OMX Helsingin pörssiin listattujen kulutuspalveluita tuottavien yritysten suorituskykyyn. Näiden yritysten suorituskykyä analysoitiin tarkemmin tarkastelemalla kannattavuuden, maksuvalmiuden ja vakavaraisuuden tunnuslukuja aikavälillä 2008-2014. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, minkälaisia muutoksia suorituskyvyn suhteen tutkitulla aikavälillä oli tapahtunut kulutuspalveluita tuottavien yritysten keskuudessa. Muutoksia analysoitiin sekä kokonaisuutena että yrityskohtaisesti. Lisäksi tutkittiin, miten kulutuspalveluryhmän sisäiset toimialat olivat selviytyneet finanssikriisistä. Käsiteltävää yritysryhmää analysoitiin tunnuslukuanalyysiä hyödyntäen. Saatujen tulosten mukaan finanssikriisillä ei ollut suurta vaikutusta käsiteltävien yritysten maksuvalmiuteen tai vakavaraisuuteen. Kannattavuuden tunnusluvut sen sijaan heikkenivät merkittävästi koko ryhmän osalta finanssikriisin vaikutuksesta. Yrityskohtaiset erot olivat tutkimuksessa melko suuria. Etenkin mediayhtiöiden tunnusluvut heikkenivät merkittävästi tutkitulla aikavälillä. Mediayhtiöiden huonoon suoriutumiseen liittyy finanssikriisin lisäksi muitakin tekijöitä. Median digitalisoituminen on aiheuttanut useille yrityksille ongelmia liiketoiminnan kannattavuuden ylläpitämisessä. Monet tutkituista yrityksistä ovat kuitenkin pystyneet kääntämään liiketoimintansa kannattavampaan suuntaan vuoden 2013 jälkeen. Johtopäätöksenä voidaankin vetää, että viimeisin finanssikriisi oli vaikutuksiltaan merkittävä ja pitkäkestoinen.

Pairs trading profitability in the Finnish stock market: A comparison between three methods

Pairs trading is an algorithmic trading strategy that is based on the historical co-movement of two separate assets and trades are executed on the basis of degree of relative mispricing. The purpose of this study is to explore one new and alternative copula-based method for pairs trading. The objective is to find out whether the copula method generates more trading opportunities and higher profits than the more traditional distance and cointegration methods applied extensively in previous empirical studies. Methods are compared by selecting top five pairs from stocks of the large and medium-sized companies in the Finnish stock market. The research period includes years 2006-2015. All the methods are proven to be profitable and the Finnish stock market suitable for pairs trading. However, copula method doesn’t generate more trading opportunities or higher profits than the other methods. It seems that the limitations of the more traditional methods are not too restrictive for this particular sample data.

Pienten osuuskuntien taloudellinen suoriutuminen

Tämän kandidaatintutkielman tarkoituksena on tutkia suomalaisia pienosuuskuntia niiden taloudellisen suoriutumisen näkökulmasta. Taloudellista suoriutumista tutkitaan tunnuslukujen avulla osuuskuntien tilinpäätöksissä olevien lukujen perusteella. Lisäksi tutkitaan, onko taloudellisessa suoriutumisessa eroavaisuuksia alueen, toimialan tai osuuskunnan koon välillä. Tutkimuksen aineisto on peräisin suomalaisten osuuskuntien tilinpäätöksistä, jotka ovat saatavilla Patentti- ja rekisterihallituksen Virre-tietokannasta. Aineistoa analysoidaan SAS Enterprise Guide -ohjelman avulla käyttäen apuna jakauma-analyysiä, yhteenvetotilastoja, Kruskal-Wallisin testiä sekä Spearmanin korrelaatioanalyysiä. Jakauma-analyyseillä ja yhteenvetotilastoilla muodostetaan aineistosta kokonaiskuva ja analysoidaan suomalaisten pienosuuskuntien tunnuslukuja. Kruskal-Wallis testillä analysoidaan taloudellisen suoriutumisen eroa alueellisesti ja toimialakohtaisesti ja Spearmanin korrelaatiokertoimella mitataan korrelaatiota liikevaihdon ja tunnuslukujen välillä. Tulosten perusteella osuuskuntien taloudellinen suoriutuminen ei ole sidoksissa toimialaan eikä alueeseen. Koon ja quick ration välillä löytyi negatiivinen korrelaatio. Suomalaisten pienosuuskuntien maksuvalmius on hyvällä tasolla. Myös vakavaraisuus on kohtalainen. Kannattavuuden tunnusluvut jäivät osuuskunnilla hyvin alhaisiksi ja osin jopa negatiivisiksi. Koska osuuskuntien toiminnan tarkoitus ei ole maksimoida voittoa, voidaan kannattavuuden tunnuslukuja pitää hyvällä tasolla, kunhan ne ovat positiivisia.