Uusien uhkakuvien luominen: tapaus 'kiinalaiset kybersoturit' : lingvistinen uhka-analyysi kyberdiskurssista

Since his inauguration, President Barack Obama has emphasized the need for a new cybersecurity policy, pledging to make it a "national security priority". This is a significant change in security discourse after an eight-year war on terror – a term Obama announced to be no longer in use. After several white papers, reports and the release of the so-called 60-day Cybersecurity Review, Obama announced the creation of a "cyber czar" position and a new military cyber command to coordinate American cyber defence and warfare. China, as an alleged cyber rival, has played an important role in the discourse that introduced the need for the new office and the proposals for changes in legislation. Research conducted before this study suggest the dominance of state-centric enemy descriptions paused briefly after 9/11, but returned soon into threat discourse. The focus on China's cyber activities fits this trend. The aim of this study is to analyze the type of modern threat scenarios through a linguistic case study on the reporting on Chinese hackers. The methodology of this threat analysis is based on the systemic functional language theory, and realizes as an analysis of action and being descriptions (verbs) used by the American authorities. The main sources of data include the Cybersecurity Act 2009, Securing Cyberspace for the 44th Presidency, and 2008 Report to Congress of the U.S. - China Economic and Security Review Commission. Contrary to the prevailing and popularized terrorism discourse, the results show the comeback of Cold War rhetoric as well as the establishment of a state-centric threat perception in cyber discourse. Cyber adversaries are referred to with descriptions of capacity, technological superiority and untrustworthiness, whereas the ‘self’ is described as vulnerable and weak. The threat of cyber attacks is compared to physical attacks on critical military and civilian infrastructure. The authorities and the media form a cycle, in which both sides quote each other and foster each other’s distrust and rhetoric. The white papers present China's cyber army as an existential threat. This leads to cyber discourse turning into a school-book example of a securitization process. The need for security demands action descriptions, which makes new rules and regulations acceptable. Cyber discourse has motives and agendas that are separate from real security discourse: the arms race of the 21st century is about unmanned war.

Venäjän informaatio-psykologinen sodankäyntitapa terrorismin torjunnassa ja viiden päivän sodassa

This study examines Russia’s Pattern of Information-Psychologic Warfare in Counter-terrorism and in the Five Day War. The first case of this comparative case study research examines an internal national security crisis, namely two of the most notorious terrorist strikes that took place firstly in The Moscow Dubrovka Theater in October 2002 and two years later in Beslan School 2004 in September. In the second case an external national security crisis, the Five Day War conducted in August 2008 between the Russian Federation and the state of Georgia will be analyzed. At the centre of this research report lays an idea: a war of information by using information as the target and as a weapon. Based on a comparative case study setting this study tries to understand how Russian pattern of information warfare manifests itself in the light of these two internal / external national security crises. Three hypotheses that guide this research report are: Russian pattern of information warfare has a long tradition which can be traced back to the Cold War era; it is possible to discern specifically Russian, partially divergent information warfare pattern; and finally by exploring the two recent internal / external national security crises, it becomes possible to sketch specifically Russian systematics. In this research report the main focus of interest is on the information-psychological dimension of the overall information warfare concept as part of the military science tradition. After such theoretical review the two empirical cases will be contextualized and chronologically introduced. Analysis will be sharpened on the parties’ actions especially from the information-psychological perspective. This will be done with the help of the developed Russia’s six action fields-model which has been divided into two main dimensions: political and military with three levels: strategic informa-tion-psychological level, and two tactical levels, namely information-technical and information-PSYOP. This creates six possible actions fields. As the empirical analysis will reveal, many of these six action fields have been used by Russia in its internal / external national security crises, which proves the study’s hypotheses: Russia has its own pattern of information psychologic warfare that is based on its historical tradition and as such it creates a base for Russian systematics.

Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-Making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.