Comparing Basal Area Diameter Distributions Estimated by Tree Species and for the Entire Stock in a Mixed Stand

Summary

Degree of previous cutting in explaining the differences in diameter distributions between mature managed and natural Norway spruce forests

Abstract

Height distributions of Scots pine sapling stands affected by retained tree and edge stand competition

Abstract

Calibrating predicted tree diameter distributions in Catalonia, Spain

Abstract

On Option Price Information Content and Extraction of Implied Probability Distributions

In this study we used market settlement prices of European call options on stock index futures to extract implied probability distribution function (PDF). The method used produces a PDF of returns of an underlying asset at expiration date from implied volatility smile. With this method, the assumption of lognormal distribution (Black-Scholes model) is tested. The market view of the asset price dynamics can then be used for various purposes (hedging, speculation). We used the so called smoothing approach for implied PDF extraction presented by Shimko (1993). In our analysis we obtained implied volatility smiles from index futures markets (S&P 500 and DAX indices) and standardized them. The method introduced by Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) was then used on PDF extraction. The results show significant deviations from the assumption of lognormal returns for S&P500 options while DAX options mostly fit the lognormal distribution. A deviant subjective view of PDF can be used to form a strategy as discussed in the last section.

Clean development mechanism and joint implementation in China and Russia as related to industrial energy projects

Being highly discussed the problem of climate change and global warming has been keeping importance for several of decades. As a response to the world’s need in solution for climate change disasters, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted in 1992 and supplemented with the Kyoto protocol in 1997. This work is aimed to give better understanding of the Convention, Kyoto Protocol with its mechanisms and their function, related to energy projects in such case countries, as Russia and China, in order to assist evaluation of projects cost-effectiveness. It provides basic information about the Convention and the Protocol with their regulations, overview of present situation and future post-Kyoto forecasts, while the most attention is concentrated on the clean development mechanism and joint implementation step-by-step project cycles and specific regulations in given countries. The current study disclosed that CDM and JI project cycles are resulting in a complicated process. By the moment it requires step-by-step following of a number of methodologies, spending time and finance to particular project development. Uncertainties about post-Kyoto period bring additional risk to the projects and complicate any business decision concerning Kyoto Protocol.

Time-varying Risk Premiums and Conditional Market Risk: Empirical Evidence from European Stock Markets

This study investigates the relationship between the time-varying risk premiums and conditional market risk in the stock markets of the ten member countries of Economy and Monetary Union. Second, it examines whether the conditional second moments change over time and are there asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix. Third, it analyzes the possible effects of the chosen testing framework. Empirical analysis is conducted using asymmetric univariate and multivariate GARCH-in-mean models and assuming three different degrees of market integration. For a daily sample period from 1999 to 2007, the study shows that the time-varying market risk alone is not enough to explain the dynamics of risk premiums and indications are found that the market risk is detected only when its price is allowed to change over time. Also asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix, which is found to be time-varying, are clearly present and should be recognized in empirical asset pricing analyses.

Novel Robot Solutions for Carrying out Field Joint Welding and Machining in the Assembly of the Vacuum Vessel of ITER

It is necessary to use highly specialized robots in ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) both in the manufacturing and maintenance of the reactor due to a demanding environment. The sectors of the ITER vacuum vessel (VV) require more stringent tolerances than normally expected for the size of the structure involved. VV consists of nine sectors that are to be welded together. The vacuum vessel has a toroidal chamber structure. The task of the designed robot is to carry the welding apparatus along a path with a stringent tolerance during the assembly operation. In addition to the initial vacuum vessel assembly, after a limited running period, sectors need to be replaced for repair. Mechanisms with closed-loop kinematic chains are used in the design of robots in this work. One version is a purely parallel manipulator and another is a hybrid manipulator where the parallel and serial structures are combined. Traditional industrial robots that generally have the links actuated in series are inherently not very rigid and have poor dynamic performance in high speed and high dynamic loading conditions. Compared with open chain manipulators, parallel manipulators have high stiffness, high accuracy and a high force/torque capacity in a reduced workspace. Parallel manipulators have a mechanical architecture where all of the links are connected to the base and to the end-effector of the robot. The purpose of this thesis is to develop special parallel robots for the assembly, machining and repairing of the VV of the ITER. The process of the assembly and machining of the vacuum vessel needs a special robot. By studying the structure of the vacuum vessel, two novel parallel robots were designed and built; they have six and ten degrees of freedom driven by hydraulic cylinders and electrical servo motors. Kinematic models for the proposed robots were defined and two prototypes built. Experiments for machine cutting and laser welding with the 6-DOF robot were carried out. It was demonstrated that the parallel robots are capable of holding all necessary machining tools and welding end-effectors in all positions accurately and stably inside the vacuum vessel sector. The kinematic models appeared to be complex especially in the case of the 10-DOF robot because of its redundant structure. Multibody dynamics simulations were carried out, ensuring sufficient stiffness during the robot motion. The entire design and testing processes of the robots appeared to be complex tasks due to the high specialization of the manufacturing technology needed in the ITER reactor, while the results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed solutions quite well. The results offer not only devices but also a methodology for the assembly and repair of ITER by means of parallel robots.