The Effect of Four-Lane to Three-Lane Conversion on the Number of Crashes and Crash Rates in Iowa Roads, June 2005

We analyze crash data collected by the Iowa Department of Transportation using Bayesian methods. The data set includes monthly crash numbers, estimated monthly traffic volumes, site length and other information collected at 30 paired sites in Iowa over more than 20 years during which an intervention experiment was set up. The intervention consisted in transforming 15 undivided road segments from four-lane to three lanes, while an additional 15 segments, thought to be comparable in terms of traffic safety-related characteristics were not converted. The main objective of this work is to find out whether the intervention reduces the number of crashes and the crash rates at the treated sites. We fitted a hierarchical Poisson regression model with a change-point to the number of monthly crashes per mile at each of the sites. Explanatory variables in the model included estimated monthly traffic volume, time, an indicator for intervention reflecting whether the site was a “treatment” or a “control” site, and various interactions. We accounted for seasonal effects in the number of crashes at a site by including smooth trigonometric functions with three different periods to reflect the four seasons of the year. A change-point at the month and year in which the intervention was completed for treated sites was also included. The number of crashes at a site can be thought to follow a Poisson distribution. To estimate the association between crashes and the explanatory variables, we used a log link function and added a random effect to account for overdispersion and for autocorrelation among observations obtained at the same site. We used proper but non-informative priors for all parameters in the model, and carried out all calculations using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS. We evaluated the effect of the four to three-lane conversion by comparing the expected number of crashes per year per mile during the years preceding the conversion and following the conversion for treatment and control sites. We estimated this difference using the observed traffic volumes at each site and also on a per 100,000,000 vehicles. We also conducted a prospective analysis to forecast the expected number of crashes per mile at each site in the study one year, three years and five years following the four to three-lane conversion. Posterior predictive distributions of the number of crashes, the crash rate and the percent reduction in crashes per mile were obtained for each site for the months of January and June one, three and five years after completion of the intervention. The model appears to fit the data well. We found that in most sites, the intervention was effective and reduced the number of crashes. Overall, and for the observed traffic volumes, the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year and mile at converted sites was 32.3% (31.4% to 33.5% with 95% probability) while at the control sites, the reduction was estimated to be 7.1% (5.7% to 8.2% with 95% probability). When the reduction in the expected number of crashes per year, mile and 100,000,000 AADT was computed, the estimates were 44.3% (43.9% to 44.6%) and 25.5% (24.6% to 26.0%) for converted and control sites, respectively. In both cases, the difference in the percent reduction in the expected number of crashes during the years following the conversion was significantly larger at converted sites than at control sites, even though the number of crashes appears to decline over time at all sites. Results indicate that the reduction in the expected number of sites per mile has a steeper negative slope at converted than at control sites. Consistent with this, the forecasted reduction in the number of crashes per year and mile during the years after completion of the conversion at converted sites is more pronounced than at control sites. Seasonal effects on the number of crashes have been well-documented. In this dataset, we found that, as expected, the expected number of monthly crashes per mile tends to be higher during winter months than during the rest of the year. Perhaps more interestingly, we found that there is an interaction between the four to three-lane conversion and season; the reduction in the number of crashes appears to be more pronounced during months, when the weather is nice than during other times of the year, even though a reduction was estimated for the entire year. Thus, it appears that the four to three-lane conversion, while effective year-round, is particularly effective in reducing the expected number of crashes in nice weather.

Traumatic Brain Injury in Iowa: An Analysis of Core Surveillance Data 2006-2008, July 15, 2011

Termed the “silent epidemic”, traumatic brain injury is the most debilitating outcome of injury characterized by the irreversibility of its damages, long-term effects on quality of life, and healthcare costs. The latest data available from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that nationally 50,000 people with traumatic brain injury (TBI) die each year; three times as many are hospitalized and more than twenty times as many are released from emergency room departments (ED) (CDC, 2008)1. The purpose of this report is to describe the epidemiology of TBI in Iowa to help guide policy and programming. TBI is a result of an external force which transfers energy to the brain. Stroke is caused by a disruption of blood flow in the brain that leads to brain injury. Though stroke is recognized as the 3rd leading cause of death nationally2, and is an injury that affects the brain it does not meet the definition a traumatic brain injury and is not included in this report.

Traumatic Brain Injury in Iowa Inpatient Hospital Data, 2003-2005

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, unintentional injury is the fifth leading cause of death for all age groups and the first leading cause of death for people from 1 to 44 years of age in the United States, while homicide remains the 2nd leading cause of death for 15 to 24 years old (CDC, 2006). In 2004, there were approximately 144,000 deaths due to unintentional injuries in the US; 53% of which represent people over 45 years of age (CDC, 2004). With 20,322 suicidal deaths and 13,170 homicidal deaths, intentional injury deaths affect mostly people under 45 years old. On average, there are 1,150 unintentional deaths per year in Iowa. In 2004, 37% of unintentional deaths were due to motor vehicle accidents (MTVCC) occurring across all age ranges and 30% were due to falls involving persons over 65 years of age 82% of the time (IDPH Health Stat Div., 2004). The most debilitating outcome of injury is traumatic brain injury, which is characterized by the irreversibility of its damages, long-term effects on quality of life, and healthcare costs. The latest data available from the CDC estimated that, nationally, 50,000 traumatic brain injured (TBI) people die each year; three times as many are hospitalized and more than twenty times as many are released from emergency room (ER) departments (CDC, 2006). Besides the TBI registry, brain injury data is also captured through three other data sources: 1) death certificates; 2) hospital inpatient data; and, 3) hospital outpatient data. The inpatient and outpatient hospital data are managed by the Iowa Hospital Association, which provides to Iowa Department of Public Health the hospital data without personal identifiers. (The hospitals send reports to the Agency of Health Care Research and Quality, which developed the Health Care Utilization Project and its product, the National Inpatient Sample).

Serving Iowa Youth and Families with a Youth Development Approach : JJDP Act Formula Grant Application and Three-Year Comprehensive Plan

This report is Iowa’s Three-Year Plan, which serves as the application for federal Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act formula grant funding (JJDP Act). The Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP) wrote Iowa’s Three-Year Plan. CJJP is the state agency responsible for administering the JJDP Act in Iowa. Federal officials refer to state administering agencies as the state planning agency (SPA). The Plan was developed and approved by Iowa’s Juvenile Justice Advisory Council. That Council assists with administration of the JJDP Act, and also provides guidance and direction to the SPA, the Governor and the legislature regarding juvenile justice issues in Iowa. Federal officials refer to such state level groups as state advisory groups (SAG’s). The acronyms SPA and SAG are used through this report.

Iowa Department of Justice, Attorney General's Office Crime Victim Assistance Division, Three Year Program Reports, December 2014

Three year program reports

Juvenile Justice System Planning Data Iowa’s Juvenile Justice Advisory Council Three Year Comprehensive Plan with Additional Juvenile Justice System Information, November 2015

This report provides key juvenile justice system planning data, most of which are taken from Iowa’s 2015 Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act Three Year Plan. The data and related descriptions serve as an overview of decision making for major juvenile justice system processing points, and also assist state and local officials with policy and practice. Included in the report are school discipline data and data related to juvenile in the adult criminal justice system.

Juvenile Justice System Planning Data Iowa’s Juvenile Justice Advisory Council Three Year Comprehensive Plan with Additional Juvenile Justice System Information, November 2015

This report provides key juvenile justice system planning data, most of which are taken from Iowa’s 2015 Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention Act Three Year Plan. The data and related descriptions serve as an overview of decision making for major juvenile justice system processing points, and also assist state and local officials with policy and practice. Included in the report are school discipline data and data related to juvenile in the adult criminal justice system.

Iowa Attorney General's Crime Victim Assistance Division: Three Year Program Reports Fiscal Years 2011, 2012, 2013 July 1, 2010 through June 2013, December 2014

We are pleased to present this report of our work and accomplishments on behalf of crime victims and survivors. The eight programs of the CVAD served over 225,000 Iowa crime victims over SFY11, SFY12 & SFY13. This report statistically outlines the services being provided in each of these individual programs. CVAD Staff and funded victim service providers work day in and day out to provide essential, victim-centered services to those who have been harmed by violent crime. This report aims to capture the work being performed around the State of Iowa with CVAD funds. Significant accomplishments have occurred during this reporting period, including the initial planning phases of a restructuring of domestic violence, sexual assault, shelter-based and homicide survivor programming and services; enhancements in automated victim notification and continued strides in restitution collection.

Iowa Department of Transportation Performance Results Achieved for Fiscal Year 2009

The DOT monitors performance of five core functions, under which are eight services, products and activities (SPAs). In all, 56 measures are used to monitor the core functions and SPAs in the DOT’s performance plan. (See Iowa DOT Performance Report – FY2009, pages 1A-9A.) Overall, DOT’s performance was good in fiscal year 2009. Of the 56 measures in the DOT’s performance plan, 43 measures (77%) met or exceeded their targets. Of the 13 measures falling short, ten were within four percent of their target. This means 95 percent of DOT measures met or exceeded 96 percent of their preset target. Performance measures monitoring the core functions of Physical Asset Management and Resource Management showed the DOT did a good job managing resources. A total of 11 of the 14 (79%) core function and SPA measures met or exceeded their predetermined targets. Two of the three measures falling short were within four percent of its target. Core function and SPA measures within the Transportation Systems core function indicated good performance. A total of 22 of the 30 (73%) core function and SPA measures met or exceeded their predetermined targets. Overall, six of the eight measures falling short were within four percent of their target. Performance measures monitoring the core functions of Enforcement and Investigation and Regulation and Compliance showed the DOT performed well. A total of 10 of the 12 (83%) core function and SPA measures met or exceeded their predetermined targets. Both of the measures falling short were within four percent of their target.

Iowa Budget Book Fiscal Year 2011.

Our FY 2011 General Fund budget is balanced, fiscally conservative, and does not raise sales or income taxes. We have already proposed and signed three balanced state budgets and have demonstrated the leadership to ensure that the current year (FY 2010) budget is balanced in the face of dramatic and quick declines in state revenues last year that occurred as a result of the national recession.

Iowa Prison Industries Five Year Transition and Business Plan 2011-2015, 2011

IPI is comprised of three divisions. Private Sector funds are handed over to the General Fund. Traditional Industries and Farms funds are managed by IPI. The auditor of the state provides oversight on policies, procedures, and compliance with state law. Each year, the auditor is responsible for providing the Governor, legislature, Director of Corrections, and the public the findings of their comprehensive audits. IPI has received a clean bill of health and has not been cited for any violations in ten (10) years. IPI operates under the guidance of an advisory board, comprised of seven members. The advisory board meets at least four (4) times per year at a location of the board‟s choice, generally at a different prison each quarter. The board reviews the financials, policies, approves any new private sector ventures and offers comprehensive guidance on issues that will impact correctional industries as well as the public and local businesses. Each member serves for two (2) years and may be re-appointed. IPI has found that retaining board members has helped immensely with the continuity of transition and has afforded IPI with superb leadership and guidance. IPI is 100% self-funding. We receive no appropriations from the general fund. We hire our staff, pay their salaries, and pay the stipend of the offenders. We pay for our raw materials, equipment, and construct our buildings all from the proceeds of our sales. We operate with a revolving fund and retain any earnings at year-ends. The retained earnings are used for expansion of our work programs.

Iowa Workforce Development Annual Report Fiscal Year 2012

Iowa ended its third year of a moderate economic recovery as fiscal year 2012 came to a close. Though many of the fundamentals in the state’s economy reflected strength during the year, employment had not returned to its pre-recession level, and job growth remained tepid. Furthermore, there was a distinct dichotomy in where hiring occurred. Most of the state’s job growth was concentrated in the goods-producing industries of construction and manufacturing, while the service-providing industries showed little momentum except for healthcare. Within the manufacturing sector, machinery products was one of the state’s fastest-growing subsectors in 2011, accounting for the creation of several thousand higher-paying jobs. The state’s nonfarm employment advanced by 12,200 in FY 2012 led primarily by growth in manufacturing and construction, which were up 9,900 and 3,800, respectively. Healthcare was the strongest of the service-providing industries with an annual gain of 2,600 jobs, while government continued to be the biggest drag on the statewide economy. Although all three levels of government employment dropped from one year ago, state government lost the most jobs at 1,900.

Iowa Budget Book Fiscal Year 2010

Our FY 2010 General Fund budget is balanced, fiscally conservative, and does not raise sales or income taxes. We have already proposed and signed three balanced state budgets and have demonstrated the leadership to ensure that the current year (FY 2009) budget is balanced in the face of dramatic and quick declines in state revenues last year that occurred as a result of the national recession.

Issue review : Regents employees, fiscal year 2001 through fiscal 2010.

An examination of the changes in employment at the three Regents universities and two special schools since fiscal year 2001.

Methods for Estimating Annual Exceedance-Probability Discharges for Streams in Iowa, Based on Data through Water Year 2010, TR-519, 2013

A statewide study was performed to develop regional regression equations for estimating selected annual exceedance- probability statistics for ungaged stream sites in Iowa. The study area comprises streamgages located within Iowa and 50 miles beyond the State’s borders. Annual exceedanceprobability estimates were computed for 518 streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak discharges for each streamgage using annual peak-discharge data through 2010. The estimation of the selected statistics included a Bayesian weighted least-squares/generalized least-squares regression analysis to update regional skew coefficients for the 518 streamgages. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the annual exceedance-probability analyses, and a generalized Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect multiple potentially influential low flows. Also, geographic information system software was used to measure 59 selected basin characteristics for each streamgage. Regional regression analysis, using generalized leastsquares regression, was used to develop a set of equations for each flood region in Iowa for estimating discharges for ungaged stream sites with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to annual flood-frequency recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. A total of 394 streamgages were included in the development of regional regression equations for three flood regions (regions 1, 2, and 3) that were defined for Iowa based on landform regions and soil regions. Average standard errors of prediction range from 31.8 to 45.2 percent for flood region 1, 19.4 to 46.8 percent for flood region 2, and 26.5 to 43.1 percent for flood region 3. The pseudo coefficients of determination for the generalized leastsquares equations range from 90.8 to 96.2 percent for flood region 1, 91.5 to 97.9 percent for flood region 2, and 92.4 to 96.0 percent for flood region 3. The regression equations are applicable only to stream sites in Iowa with flows not significantly affected by regulation, diversion, channelization, backwater, or urbanization and with basin characteristics within the range of those used to develop the equations. These regression equations will be implemented within the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats Web-based geographic information system tool. StreamStats allows users to click on any ungaged site on a river and compute estimates of the eight selected statistics; in addition, 90-percent prediction intervals and the measured basin characteristics for the ungaged sites also are provided by the Web-based tool. StreamStats also allows users to click on any streamgage in Iowa and estimates computed for these eight selected statistics are provided for the streamgage.