2 resultados para variational cumulant expansion method
em Iowa Publications Online (IPO) - State Library, State of Iowa (Iowa), United States
Resumo:
Reliable estimates of heavy-truck volumes are important in a number of transportation applications. Estimates of truck volumes are necessary for pavement design and pavement management. Truck volumes are important in traffic safety. The number of trucks on the road also influences roadway capacity and traffic operations. Additionally, heavy vehicles pollute at higher rates than passenger vehicles. Consequently, reliable estimates of heavy-truck vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are important in creating accurate inventories of on-road emissions. This research evaluated three different methods to calculate heavy-truck annual average daily traffic (AADT) which can subsequently be used to estimate vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Traffic data from continuous count stations provided by the Iowa DOT were used to estimate AADT for two different truck groups (single-unit and multi-unit) using the three methods. The first method developed monthly and daily expansion factors for each truck group. The second and third methods created general expansion factors for all vehicles. Accuracy of the three methods was compared using n-fold cross-validation. In n-fold cross-validation, data are split into n partitions, and data from the nth partition are used to validate the remaining data. A comparison of the accuracy of the three methods was made using the estimates of prediction error obtained from cross-validation. The prediction error was determined by averaging the squared error between the estimated AADT and the actual AADT. Overall, the prediction error was the lowest for the method that developed expansion factors separately for the different truck groups for both single- and multi-unit trucks. This indicates that use of expansion factors specific to heavy trucks results in better estimates of AADT, and, subsequently, VMT, than using aggregate expansion factors and applying a percentage of trucks. Monthly, daily, and weekly traffic patterns were also evaluated. Significant variation exists in the temporal and seasonal patterns of heavy trucks as compared to passenger vehicles. This suggests that the use of aggregate expansion factors fails to adequately describe truck travel patterns.
Resumo:
The research presented in this report provides the basis for the development of a new procedure to be used by the Iowa DOT and cities and counties in the state to deal with detours. Even though the project initially focused on investigating new tools to determine condition and compensation, the focus was shifted to traffic and the gas tax method to set the basis for the new procedure. It was concluded that the condition-based approach, even though accurate and consistent condition evaluations can be achieved, is not feasible or cost effective because of the current practices of data collection (two-year cycle) and also the logistics of the procedure (before and after determination). The gas tax method provides for a simple, easy to implement, and consistent approach to dealing with compensation for use of detours. It removes the subjectivity out of the current procedures and provides for a more realistic (traffic based) approach to the compensation determination.