9 resultados para uncertainty in demand
em Iowa Publications Online (IPO) - State Library, State of Iowa (Iowa), United States
Resumo:
With the rapid growth in China’s dairy industry, a number of recent papers have addressed either the supply or the demand trends for dairy products in China. None, however, presents a systematic explanation for the recent growth in both the supply and demand for dairy products. The goal of this paper is to sketch a more comprehensive picture of China’s dairy sector and to assess the nature of the sector’s development in the coming decades. Drawing upon several empirical studies, we examine the trends in dairy product consumption to create a composite picture of the factors underlying the recent growth. We also empirically investigate the sources of production gains in milk supply and assess the relative importance of expanding herd size, changes in the nature of production, technological change, and improvements in efficiency to the overall growth of milk production.
Resumo:
Winter weather in Iowa is often unpredictable and can have an adverse impact on traffic flow. The Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) attempts to lessen the impact of winter weather events on traffic speeds with various proactive maintenance operations. In order to assess the performance of these maintenance operations, it would be beneficial to develop a model for expected speed reduction based on weather variables and normal maintenance schedules. Such a model would allow the Iowa DOT to identify situations in which speed reductions were much greater than or less than would be expected for a given set of storm conditions, and make modifications to improve efficiency and effectiveness. The objective of this work was to predict speed changes relative to baseline speed under normal conditions, based on nominal maintenance schedules and winter weather covariates (snow type, temperature, and wind speed), as measured by roadside weather stations. This allows for an assessment of the impact of winter weather covariates on traffic speed changes, and estimation of the effect of regular maintenance passes. The researchers chose events from Adair County, Iowa and fit a linear model incorporating the covariates mentioned previously. A Bayesian analysis was conducted to estimate the values of the parameters of this model. Specifically, the analysis produces a distribution for the parameter value that represents the impact of maintenance on traffic speeds. The effect of maintenance is not a constant, but rather a value that the researchers have some uncertainty about and this distribution represents what they know about the effects of maintenance. Similarly, examinations of the distributions for the effects of winter weather covariates are possible. Plots of observed and expected traffic speed changes allow a visual assessment of the model fit. Future work involves expanding this model to incorporate many events at multiple locations. This would allow for assessment of the impact of winter weather maintenance across various situations, and eventually identify locations and times in which maintenance could be improved.
Resumo:
The Iowa Transportation Improvement Program (Program) is published to inform Iowans of planned investments in our state’s transportation system. The Iowa Transportation Commission (Commission) and Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) are committed to programming those investments in a fiscally responsible manner. A major component of the 2010-2014 Program is the full integration of funding allocated to the Iowa DOT from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Recovery Act). To date, the Recovery Act has provided over $400 million of additional federal funding for transportation in Iowa, including funding that is allocated to local governments and entities. Recovery Act funding will result in a record year for transportation construction in Iowa and the creation and retention of jobs. Opportunities for additionalRecovery Act transportation funding remain and will be pursued as they becomeavailable. While Recovery Act funding will make a one-time significant impact in addressing Iowa’s backlog of needs, it is important to note that there remains a large shortfall in sustained annual transportation investment to meet Iowa’s current and future critical transportation needs. In recognition of this shortfall, Governor Culver introduced and the legislature passed an I-JOBS proposal. I-JOBS will result in an additional $50 million of state funding to reduce structurally deficient and functionally obsolete bridges on the primary road system and approximately $10 million in funding for other modes of transportation including $3 million of new funding to support the expansion of passenger rail service in Iowa. I-JOBS, and the continuing gradual increase in funding due to TIME-21, will complement and extend the benefits of Recovery Act funding and set the stage for addressing the shortfall in annual funding in the next few years. Iowa’s transportation system is multi-modal; therefore, the Program encompasses investments in aviation, transit, railroads, trails, and highways. A major component of the Program is the highway section. The FY2010-2014 highway section is financially balanced and was developed to achieve several objectives. The Commission’s primary highway investment objective is stewardship (i.e. safety, maintenance and preservation) of Iowa’s existing highway system. The highway section includes an annual average of $104 million for preserving the interstate system; an annual average of $78 million for non-interstate pavement preservation; an annual average of $36 million for non-interstate bridges; and an annual average of $14 million for safety projects. Another objective is to maintain the scheduled completion of interstate and non-interstate capacity and economic development projects that were identified in the previous Program and this Program does so. The final Commission objective is to further address capacity and economic development needs and the Commission has done so by adding several such projects to the Program. Construction improvements are partially funded through the current federal transportation act, Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU). The act will expire September 30, 2009. With the expiration of SAFETEA-LU, there is significant uncertainty in the forecast of federal revenues in the out-years of this Program. The Commission and Iowa DOT will monitor federal actions closely and make adjustments to the Program as necessary. The Iowa DOT and Commission appreciate the public’s involvement in the state’s transportation planning process. Comments received personally, by letter, or through participation in the Commission’s regular meetings or public input meetings held around the state each year are invaluable in providing guidance for the future of Iowa’s transportation system. It should be noted that this document is a planning guide. It does not represent a binding commitment or obligation of the Commission or Iowa DOT, and is subject to change. You are invited to visit the Iowa DOT’s Web site at iowadot.gov for additional and regular updates about the department’s programs and activities.
Resumo:
The Iowa Transportation Improvement Program (Program) is published to inform Iowans of planned investments in our state’s transportation system. The Iowa Transportation Commission (Commission) and Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) are committed to programming those investments in a fiscally responsible manner. This document serves as the Iowa DOT's annual report as required by Iowa Code section 7A.9. This document reflects Iowa’s multimodal transportation system by the inclusion of investments in aviation, transit, railroads, trails, and highways. A major component of this program is the highway section that documents programmed investments on the primary highway system for the next five years. A large part of funding available for highway programming comes from the federal government. Accurately estimating future funding levels of this federal funding is dependent on having a current enacted multi-year federal transportation authorization. The most recent authorization, Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU), expired September 30, 2009, and to date it has been extended five times because a new authorization has not yet been enacted. The current extension expires December 31, 2010. While Iowa law does not require the adoption of a Program when federal transportation funding is being reauthorized, the Commission believes it is important to adopt a Program in order to continue on-going planning and project development efforts and to be well positioned when a new authorization is adopted. However, it is important to recognize that, absent a federal authorization bill, there is significant uncertainty in the forecast of federal revenues. The Commission and the Iowa DOT will continue to monitor federal revenues and will adjust future investments as needed to maintain a fiscally responsible Program. In developing the highway section of the program, the Commission’s primary investment objective remains stewardship (i.e. safety, maintenance and preservation) of Iowa’s existing highway system. In fact, over $1.2 billion is programmed in FY2011 through FY2015 for preservation of Iowa’s existing highway system and for enhanced highway safety features. The highway section also includes significant investments for interstate modernization on I-29 inSioux City, on I-29/80/480 in Council Bluffs, and on I-74 in Bettendorf/ Davenport. Another highway programming objective reflected in this Program is maintaining the scheduled completion of capacity and economic development projects that were identified in the previous Program. Finally, with the limited remaining funds the Commission has furthered the investment in capacity and economic development by adding a few projects to the Program. The Iowa DOT and Commission appreciate the public’s involvement in the state’s transportation planning process. Comments received personally, by letter or through participation in the Commission’s regular meetings or public input meetings held around the state each year, are invaluable in providing guidance for the future of Iowa’s transportation system.
Resumo:
The Iowa Transportation Improvement Program (Program) is published to inform Iowans of planned investments in our state’s transportation system. The Iowa Transportation Commission (Commission) and Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT) are committed to programming those investments in a fiscally responsible manner. This document reflects Iowa’s multimodal transportation system by the inclusion of investments in aviation, transit, railroads, trails, and highways. A major component of this program is the highway section that documents programmed investments on the primary highway system for the next five years. A large part of funding available for highway programming comes from the federal government. Accurately estimating future federal funding levels is dependent on having a current enacted multi-year federal transportation authorization. The most recent authorization, Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU), expired September 30, 2009, and to date it has been extended seven times because a new authorization has not yet been enacted. The current extension will expire September 30, 2011. This leads to significant uncertainty in federal funding; however, it is becoming evident that, in Federal Fiscal Year 2012 and beyond, federal funding revenue will likely be reduced by 25 percent from current levels in order to match revenue that flows into the Highway Trust Fund. This Program reflects this anticipated reduction in federal funding. While Iowa law does not require the adoption of a Program when federal transportation funding is being reauthorized, the Commission believes it is important to adopt a Program in order to continue on-going planning and project development efforts so that Iowa will be well positioned when a new authorization is adopted. However, it is important to recognize that, absent a federal authorization bill, there is significant uncertainty in the forecast of federal revenues. The Commission and the Iowa DOT will continue to monitor federal revenues and will adjust future investments as needed to maintain a fiscally responsible Program. For 2012-2016, approximately $2.3 billion is forecast to be available for highway right of way and construction. In developing the highway section of the Program, the Commission’s primary investment objective remains stewardship (i.e. safety, maintenance and preservation) of Iowa’s existing highway system. Over $1.3 billion is programmed in FY2012 through FY2016 for preservation of Iowa’s existing highway system and for enhanced highway safety features. The highway section also includes significant interstate investments on I-29 in Sioux City, I-29/80/480 in Council Bluffs, and I-74 in Bettendorf/Davenport. The FY2016 programming for construction on I-74 in Bettendorf/Davenport is the first of several years of significant investments that will be monitored for available funding. Approximately $200 million of the investments on these three major urban interstate projects address preservation needs. In total, approximately $1.5 billion is programmed for highway preservation activities for 2012- 2016. Another highway programming objective is maintaining the scheduled completion of capacity and economic development projects. Projects that were previously scheduled to be completed within the previous Program continue on their current schedule. However, due to the reduction of projected federal revenues, the Commission has delayed by one year the initiation of construction of all multi-year non-Interstate capacity and economic development projects that cannot be completed within this Program. These projects are U.S. 20 in Woodbury County, U.S. 30 in Benton County, U.S. 61 in Louisa County, and Iowa 100 in Linn County. The Iowa DOT and Commission appreciate the public’s involvement in the state’s transportation planning process. Comments received personally, by letter or through participation in the Commission’s regular meetings or public input meetings held around the state each year, are invaluable in providing guidance for the future of Iowa’s transportation system. It should be noted that this document is a planning guide. It does not represent a binding commitment or obligation of the Commission or Iowa DOT, and is subject to change.
Resumo:
The transportation system is in demand 24/7 and 365 days a year irrespective of neither the weather nor the conditions. Iowa’s transportation system is an integral and essential part of society serving commerce and daily functions of all Iowans across the state. A high quality transportation system serves as the artery for economic activity and, the condition of the infrastructure is a key element for our future growth opportunities. A key component of Iowa’s transportation system is the public roadway system owned and maintained by the state, cities and counties. In order to regularly re-evaluate the conditions of Iowa’s public roadway infrastructure and assess the ability of existing revenues to meet the needs of the system, the Iowa Department of Transportation’s 2006 Road Use Tax Fund (RUTF) report to the legislature included a recommendation that a study be conducted every five years. That recommendation was included in legislation adopted in 2007 and signed into law. The law specifically requires the following (2011 Iowa Code Section 307.31): •“The department shall periodically review the current revenue levels of the road use tax fund and the sufficiency of those revenues for the projected construction and maintenance needs of city, county, and state governments in the future. The department shall submit a written report to the general assembly regarding its findings by December 31 every five years, beginning in 2011. The report may include recommendations concerning funding levels needed to support the future mobility and accessibility for users of Iowa's public road system.” •“The department shall evaluate alternative funding sources for road maintenance and construction and report to the general assembly at least every five years on the advantages and disadvantages and the viability of alternative funding mechanisms.” Consistent with this requirement, the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) has prepared this study. Recognizing the importance of actively engaging with the public and transportation stakeholders in any discussion of public roadway conditions and needs, Governor Terry E. Branstad announced on March 8, 2011, the creation of, and appointments to, the Governor’s Transportation 2020 Citizen Advisory Commission (CAC). The CAC was tasked with assisting the Iowa DOT as they assess the condition of Iowa’s roadway system and evaluate current and future funding available to best address system needs. In particular the CAC was directed to gather input from the public and stakeholders regarding the condition of Iowa’s public roadway system, the impact of that system, whether additional funding is needed to maintain/improve the system, and, if so, what funding mechanisms ought to be considered. With this input, the CAC prepared a report and recommendations that were presented to Governor Branstad and the Iowa DOT in November 2011 for use in the development of this study. The CAC’s report is available at www.iowadot.gov/transportation2020/pdfs/CAC%20REPORT%20FINAL%20110211.pdf. The CAC’s report was developed utilizing analysis and information from the Iowa DOT. Therefore, the report forms the basis for this study and the two documents are very similar. Iowa is fortunate to have an extensive public roadway system that provides access to all areas of the state and facilitates the efficient movement of goods and people. However, it is also a tremendous challenge for the state, cities and counties to maintain and improve this system given flattening revenue, lost buying power, changing demands on the system, severe weather, and an aging system. This challenge didn’t appear overnight and for the last decade many studies have been completed to look into the situation and the legislature has taken significant action to begin addressing the situation. In addition, the Iowa DOT and Iowa’s cities and counties have worked jointly and independently to increase efficiency and streamline operations. All of these actions have been successful and resulted in significant changes; however, it is apparent much more needs to be done. A well-maintained, high-quality transportation system reduces transportation costs and provides consistent and reliable service. These are all factors that are critical in the evaluation companies undertake when deciding where to expand or locate new developments. The CAC and Iowa DOT heard from many Iowans that additional investment in Iowa’s roadway system is vital to support existing jobs and continued job creation in the state of Iowa. Beginning June 2011, the CAC met regularly to review material and discuss potential recommendations to address Iowa’s roadway funding challenges. This effort included extensive public outreach with meetings held in seven locations across Iowa and through a Transportation 2020 website hosted by the Iowa DOT (www.iowadot.gov/transportation2020). Over 500 people attended the public meetings held through the months of August and September, with 198 providing verbal or written comment at the meetings or through the website. Comments were received from a wide array of individuals. The public comments demonstrated overwhelming support for increased funding for Iowa’s roads. Through the public input process, several guiding principles were established to guide the development of recommendations. Those guiding principles are: • Additional revenues are restricted for road and bridge improvements only, like 95 percent of the current state road revenue is currently. This includes the fuel tax and registration fees. • State and local governments continue to streamline and become more efficient, both individually and by looking for ways to do things collectively. • User fee concept is preserved, where those who use the roads pay for them, including non¬residents. • Revenue-generating methods equitable across users. • Increase revenue generating mechanisms that are viable now but begin to implement and set the stage for longer-term solutions that bring equity and stability to road funding. • Continue Iowa’s long standing tradition of state roadway financing coming from pay-as-you-go financing. Iowa must not fall into the situation that other states are currently facing where the majority of their new program dollars are utilized to pay the debt service of past bonding. Based on the analysis of Iowa’s public roadway needs and revenue and the extensive work of the Governor’s Transportation 2020 Citizen Advisory Commission, the Iowa DOT has identified specific recommendations. The recommendations follow very closely the recommendations of the CAC (CAC recommendations from their report are repeated in Appendix B). Following is a summary of the recommendations which are fully documented beginning on page 21. 1. Through a combination of efficiency savings and increased revenue, a minimum of $215 million of revenue per year should be generated to meet Iowa’s critical roadway needs. 2. The Code of Iowa should be changed to require the study of the sufficiency of the state’s road funds to meet the road system’s needs every two years instead of every five years to coincide with the biennial legislative budget appropriation schedule. 3.Modify the current registration fee for electric vehicles to be based on weight and value using the same formula that applies to most passenger vehicles. 4.Consistent with existing Code of Iowa requirements, new funding should go to the TIME-21 Fund up to the cap ($225 million) and remaining new funding should be distributed consistent with the Road Use Tax Fund distribution formula. 5.The CAC recommended the Iowa DOT at least annually convene meetings with cities and counties to review the operation, maintenance and improvement of Iowa’s public roadway system to identify ways to jointly increase efficiency. In direct response to this recommendation, Governor Branstad directed the Iowa DOT to begin this effort immediately with a target of identifying $50 million of efficiency savings that can be captured from the over $1 billion of state revenue already provided to the Iowa DOT and Iowa’s cities and counties to administer, maintain and improve Iowa’s public roadway system. This would build upon past joint and individual actions that have reduced administrative costs and resulted in increased funding for improvement of Iowa’s public roadway system. Efficiency actions should be quantified, measured and reported to the public on a regular basis. 6.By June 30, 2012, Iowa DOT should complete a study of vehicles and equipment that use Iowa’s public roadway system but pay no user fees or substantially lower user fees than other vehicles and equipment.
Resumo:
DOC Research Director Lettie Prell recently compiled the calendar year 2012 data for offender releases from prison to community supervision in Iowa. Analyzes such as these help the Iowa Corrections system in identifying where the most reentry resource need is; what offender programming is most in demand; and which culturally-sensitive supervision and culturally-specific programming is prescribed.
Resumo:
This document describes planned investments in Iowa’s multimodal transportation system including aviation, transit, railroads, trails, and highways. This five-year program documents $3.2 billion of highway and bridge construction projects on the primary road system using federal and state funding. Of that funding, a little over $500 million is available due to the passage of Senate File 257 in February 2015. As required by Senate File 257, this program includes a list of the critical highway and bridge projects funded with the additional revenue. As with other recent programs, there continues to be uncertainty in federal funding for roads and bridges. The most recent federal authorization, Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century (MAP-21), will expire July 31, 2015. At the same time that MAP-21 expires and absent Congressional action, the federal Highway Trust Fund will no longer be able to provide funding at current levels. This could result in reduced federal funding reimbursement for projects already underway and/or full elimination of federal highway funding for new projects in federal fiscal year 2016. These two issues provide funding uncertainty with this program in fiscal year 2016 and beyond.
Resumo:
The Gap Tuition program was established to provide funding to community colleges for need-based tuition assistance to applicants for completion of continuing education certificate training programs for in-demand occupations.